Who is winning The RACE (part 2)?

 
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Would have preferred if someone had done the 30/30T class in preference to the 20 class.
They worked country branch lines, shunting and commuter services. Ah well they might turn up one day.
Piston
In case you missed it Eureka Models have already announced the 30/30T, hence why Austrains are not doing it.
When the Eureka model comes out is another matter, of course...!

Regards,

Toby

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  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
The rise of AUSCISION

In 1998 when Trainorama was renamed Austrains by John Eassie & Tom of Tom’s Hobbies, there was really only two companies in the Australian RTR outline producing game, the other of course being Powerline.  Ironically, John Eassie was involved in the creation of Trax, which later became Powerline.  Up until this point the only other RTR Australian outline items available were of course from Lima, who went belly-up a few years later.

For the next six years Austrains dominated Australian RTR, releasing a series of locomotives, some rollingstock and a set of coaches.  In that time Powerline released just one new loco, a MK3 version of what was originally the Trax 48 class.

In 2004 the Austrains dominance came to an end.  Trainorama was recreated by the new owners of Toms Hobbies and almost simultaneously Ron Cunningham entered the market with his own business, Eureka Models.  Suddenly there was the ‘Big Four’. Trainorama upped the standards by dramatically improving the standard of detail of their models, a standard that everyone quickly aspired to and sometimes struggled to match.

Things changed again in December 2005. At the time, it was pretty small, and easy to miss. It was just a small ad towards the back of the Australian Model Railway Magazine, for soon to-be-released coal hoppers.  Auscision.  It did not even come close to forewarning us for what was to come.  No other company had appeared before this promising rollingstock as their first model.  Auscision took some time to get started on their initial program, meanwhile the other companies, particularly Trainorama and Austrains, continued to release models.

But since that small beginning Auscision has simply continued to grow and grow, with more and more models being released and announced.  In most respects the other producers have begun to lag behind, and of course many of them have had their fair share of problems with factories in China.  So far Auscision have released;

Seven locomotives plus one in conjunction with Austrains (the T class), including the Bendigo ‘Flat -top’ T class.
Twenty different types of freight wagons with variations amongst each
One coach set
Over ten types of accessories of various kinds plus spare parts

And they have announced;
Over a dozen types of freight wagons (with variations)
Four coach sets (Vic N & H cars, NSW RUB cars, Southern Aurora)
One railcar (Walkers)
Two train sets (XPT, Tangara)
Eight locomotive types (AN, 46,C44ACi, GT46C-ACe, 86, Vic L, 45, GL).

Some of these announcements are due to arrive within the next six months.

With the release of their NSW 422 and 73 class locomotives, Auscision have caught up to Trainorama who have also released 8 different locomotive classes.  They are still well behind Austrains who have released about 15 different locomotive projects (it depends on how you count the variations as separate; you could also claim that they have released 20 different loco classes).  Whilst it certainly took Auscision a long time to complete the 422 project, and none of their loco projects has arrived particularly quickly, with the exception of the T class (which of course were actually done for them by Austrains), the fact remains that they have released more new locomotive models than anyone else in the last six years.  There’s little doubt that they’ll continue to maintain this lead; after all they have two projects (Walkers railcars & AN class) that will be released within the next six months, and three more which have already achieved pilot model stage.  No other producer is even close to achieving this.

So who is the biggest? Austrains or Auscision?

The difference between Auscision and Austrains in terms of size, is what they have achieved since Auscision began.  It seems a little unfair to compare the total if one considers Austrains had a big head start (7 years).  It is on that front that Auscision have just taken the lead.  In terms of future projects, no other company is even close.  Over the last several months we have seen samples of three of their upcoming projects, the recently-ish announced GT46C-ACe’s, the C44ACi’s and the long foreshadowed NSWGR 46 class.  If you were to count the different classes in the modern locos, then when these are released Auscision will have taken the lead in almost every department.  A few weeks ago they announced the Victorian L class electric locos, and confirmed what had long been suspected to be an upcoming NSWGR 45 class loco.

Auscision have now made more announcements than anyone else, with the exception of Eureka, who have announced many more locomotive projects than Auscision.  Of course, Eureka has delivered only two locomotive projects so far, whereas Auscision have released 7, not including the T class.

With their latest announcements, Auscision will now have no trouble dominating the modern image scene.  They are also producing far more models for the 80’s market than most other companies.  Austrains recently stated that they had produced more four-wheel wagons than anyone else.  True. They have also released more locomotives than anyone else. However in every department Auscision is already ahead.  The only thing now seriously lacking? The NSW steam era. Last year they announced the NSW fishbelly series of wagons, which are the only thing they have announced or produced that ran in NSW prior to 1969, other than the 45 class and the RUB coaches.  So it seems a reasonable bet to expect this to change.  The question is merely what exactly they will do, and how soon it will appear.

Another way of looking at it is this there are approximately 88 different classes of diesel and electric locomotive that have been introduced to service on Australian state government standard and broad gauge railways (although it does depend how you count certain classes, but we’re calling it 88 ).  Auscision have produced or announced 25 of these types. Austrains have produced or announced 17.

Whatever the future of Australian outline models, one thing is abundantly clear; Auscision will be a major part of it. How much a part of it everyone else gets, is the remaining big question...

Alrighty then, so where are we? What happened in 2012? Did you miss something? Probably not.

BRM Vic T class (series 1)
Powerline NSW 48 class
Austrains Vic Y class (re-run)

2013 Arrivals so far

Southern Rail U-boats (re-run)
Auscision 422 class
On Track 82 class
Auscision 73 class

Predictions 2013

June
Southern Rail Xplorer/Endeavour railcars

July
Auscision Vic Walkers 280HP


August
Trainorama SA GM class
Eureka R class – well, maybe
Bendigo T class (re-run, new colour schemes) – and a guess

Sep
Umm..

Nov
Auscision SA AN class –some risk of delay to early next year
Austrains Vic G class
Austrains SA BL class

Dec
Austrains 81 class
Eureka NSW 40 class – this feels optimistic



2014
Early
Trainorama 48 class
Trainorama 830 class
Southern Rail Vic V/Locity sets

Mid
Bendigo Rail Vic P class
Auscision GT46C-ACe
Austrains NSW 442 class (re-run)
Eureka NSW 620/720 railcars (re-run)
Minimodels NSW U-boats
Southern Rail QLD 2300
Southern Rail WA DFZ class
Powerline NSW 81 class –re-run, new mechanism
Powerline Vic G class –re-run, new mechanism
Powerline BL class –re-run, new mechanism
Eureka Vic K class
Trainorama NSW 49 class (re-run)

Late
Auscision NSW 46 class
Auscision NSW C43/C44ACi
Auscision NSW Tangara sets
TrainOrama NSW 47 class (re-run)
Southern Rail QLD 2000 class railmotors
Eureka NSW C38 class (re-run)
Powerline NSW 48 class (re-run, candy, other colours?)

2015
Eureka NSW D50 class
Austrains NSW Z20 class
Railmotor Models SCT class
Auscision NSW XPT set
Auscision NSW 45 class
Auscision NSW 86 class
Eureka NSW DEB set
TrainOrama NSW 45 class –we probably won’t hear about these for some time yet until they are about to arrive
TrainOrama SA 600 class –so this is a guess
Minimodels NSW Tangara sets –will they even be done now??

2016
Eureka NSW D59 class
Eureka NSW D53 class
TrainOrama WA L class –and no news
TrainOrama NSW 82 class –very doubtful that these will happen
Powerline NSW Explorer/Endeavour sets
Eureka NSW Silver City Comet

2017 and BEYOND
Auscision CFCLA GL class –have not elicited a mention for a long time
Railmotor CSR/BK class
Eureka SMR 10 class
Eureka NSW D55 class
Eureka NSW 43 class
Eureka VR N class
Eureka SAR 750 class
Eureka NSW C30/C30T class
Eureka NSW D57 class
Eureka NSW D58 class
_________________________________________________

Notes
A little sanity has recently crept back into some of the producers announcements with Austrains confirming the Z20 will not arrive this year (they claimed it was their decision, but we think this was just their way of avoiding embarrassment). Southern Rail have also confirmed that their 2300/DFZ project won’t arrive this year as originally scheduled, and even Eureka’s most recent newsletter indicated that the VR K class would be next year as is the D50.  Remember that this (the 50 class) when announced last year was also supposed to arrive last year, according to the advertisement!

In fact of all the producers it is Auscision who still persist with the notion that they will somehow be releasing 6 locomotives and a railcar in one year, when if you discount the Austrains and Bendigo T class they have actually taken 6 years to release 6 locomotives models, two of which shared the same chassis.  Whilst they are certainly ahead of the others as stated above, the likelihood of achieving this goal seems extremely remote.

Anything that we’re currently predicting to arrive late in the year is of course highly likely to be delayed that critical month or two and slip to early next year.  Given that Trainorama have been indicating that their 48/830 class project is due to arrive within this danger zone for some time, we’ve determined that the odds of it successfully turning up in 2013 is minimal at best, hence its removal to 2014. Austrains 81 class project is also highly vulnerable to this, of course.

Of course we also have a new race, between Trainorama and Auscision to produce the 45 class. Whilst Trainorama have not confirmed that the is being worked on, they also have not said that they’re not, which could be crucial.  Once the 48’s arrive, we would not be surprised to see Trainorama making noise about their 45.  Who could be leading this race, is impossible to know.

Nonetheless despite all the (usual) doom and gloom, 2013 is still (just) on track to be a record-breaking year. 2014 could still break that record immediately afterwards. Fingers crossed.

Kind regards,

The Boys from THE RACE
  Captain Underpants Train Controller

Thank you for that detailed update.
Cheers
  Laser Rail Bits Locomotive Driver

Location: Goulburn NSW
Thanks for that well thought through and complete synopsis of where we are going...Also serves as a snapshot to look back on in a year or so.

Regards,

Rod
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
Hi Toby,

Thanks for your efforts to clear the fog in the crystal ball.  Interesting as your prognosis always is.

Unfortunately another race is being run in parallel.  A race against Father Time and the Grim Reaper.  I was 64 when I ordered a brace of D59 Mikados from one of our purveyors of goodies.  If your prediction is on the money I would be 71 when they are delivered.  For those who need help with the maths I am now 68.

I sincerely hope that I am still around and still playing trains when the D59 comes along.  Of course the cynic might ask will my layout now under construction be ready by then. LaughingLaughing

Best regards,
John
  a6et Minister for Railways

Well put together Toby as per usual.

When all is considered in regard to each of the manufacturers, I wonder how equal they all are really? Given that Austrains has been around for the longest, & overall has produced the most, its really only in recent times that models have reached the standards as the others, & as you mentioned with TOR, production of the 44cl a hew bar was set. The first lot of items from Auscision were from my perspective a bit on the chunky size in some areas of add on detail but since then there has been a big lift in standards though.

However, out of them all, Auscision probably has the most going for them as against the others, & both of them count for a lot, & it depends on how one wants to list them. So in no particular order.  Auscision are fortunate in that they probably have the best financial backing then all of the others, thus the money & financing of models is possibly not that great an issue as the others have. The other aspect is that out of them all, they have also had the least disruption with the factories in China, than the others, of course its hard to consider Powerline out of that aspect as they were also using but one factory in China after the sub continent debacle.

The aspect that Auscision has had the reliance of a single factory has been a huge plus I would think, although it seems as if they have also been using another one in recent models, the 73cl is one mentioned to be from another factory.  

The other 3 NSW manufacturers that one could say were/are the primary competition to Auscision namely Austrains, Eureka & TOR have each been badly affected by the SDK debacle of a few years back, with two going to one factory & the other going in a separate direction.  Its also worth noting how each edition of the AMRM, seems to show some tooing & froing in regards to what models have been moved from the old SDK factory for both Austrains & Eureka, & what is at the new factory. Thus, I submit that they both have had some fair affects on production.

The change of ownership of TOR & the old Toms Hobbies, probably also has had an impact on the timing, along with the announcement that new motors & a redesign of the chassis of each of their models, both new & old needed to be done, something I suspect is also the case with the other 2 also.

As a result, I think Auscision does have a huge lead in the market, & to such an extent that they may in fact be more self sufficient than the other 3, but here I think at the moment Austrains runs 2nd, & only time will tell with the other 2 as they will both depend very much on getting their next runs out ASAP.

I guess the main concern that I have in all of this is the potential for duplication of models, especially in areas of those that may be quite popular.

For those who have waited for models both fully paid for & those put in crystal ball agenda's as well as futures etc that have been eagerly waited on, I think father time may indeed come sooner rather than the models.
  anzac1959 Chief Commissioner

Hi Toby,

Thanks for your efforts to clear the fog in the crystal ball.  Interesting as your prognosis always is.

Unfortunately another race is being run in parallel.  A race against Father Time and the Grim Reaper.  I was 64 when I ordered a brace of D59 Mikados from one of our purveyors of goodies.  If your prediction is on the money I would be 71 when they are delivered.  For those who need help with the maths I am now 68.

I sincerely hope that I am still around and still playing trains when the D59 comes along.  Of course the cynic might ask will my layout now under construction be ready by then. LaughingLaughing

Best regards,
John
John_Bushell

John that is a true reflection of life , and you having said that some of the manufactures are also getting older puts it all into perspective doesn't it 64 to 71 yo.
cheers anzac
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Unfortunately another race is being run in parallel.  A race against Father Time and the Grim Reaper.  I was 64 when I ordered a brace of D59 Mikados from one of our purveyors of goodies.  If your prediction is on the money I would be 71 when they are delivered.  For those who need help with the maths I am now 68.

I sincerely hope that I am still around and still playing trains when the D59 comes along.  Of course the cynic might ask will my layout now under construction be ready by then. LaughingLaughing
John_Bushell

John, I also sincerely hope that you are still around.  Unfortunately when it comes to timing I had absolutely no evidence that the D59 will come when it is claimed by Eureka.  The first running pilot samples of the R appeared in July 2011. With the new factory.  Therefore whilst clearly progress is being made, it does not seem that much better.  Neither have we yet seen samples of the D50's and the K was pushed back.  Its also apparent that sound chips are causing delays too.  So given that, we had to acknowledge that Eureka is very unlikely to be able to release more than two new items per year.  In fact I do believe where I have placed the DEB set and the Silver City Comet, are optimistic and they will probably be a year later.  Indeed, all of the Eureka predictions could be optimistic - look back and you will see that I have been grossly optimistic in the past!

We are now nearly half way into 2013 and we have no samples on hand for items that are predicted to arrive in 2015. If samples do not arrive in the next 6 months for those items (whether we will know about this is another matter entirely), then they are very unlikely to get here in 2015, never mind 2014 as predicted by some of the various producers.

Kind regards,

Toby
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
Toby,

I do not doubt your predictions in truth.

I do not want to panic people who have models paid for and are patiently waiting.  Nevertheless I think my colleague a6et has included some words that go to the heart of many delays:

"Auscision are fortunate in that they probably have the best financial backing then all of the others, thus the money & financing of models is possibly not that great an issue as the others have."

Best regards,
John
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Auscision made a clear decision after they'd experienced some nasty delays, to not announce projects until things were much more progressed.  The result was that they went comparatively quiet with new announcements for a fair while back in 2008-09-10.  Yes a few things were announced but most of what has been announced in the last 6-8 months would have been begun back then.
So it is only now that we are seeing just how much work they have been doing in the past few years.  I can't help but wonder how many of the other producers have been 'gazumped' by some of their latest announcements.  We already know that Trainorama were planning to produce the 45 and the BLX vans plus a few other wagons that Auscision have announced or already produced.  So there is a definite push from Auscision to dominate the market.  How this will change the market, and whether or not some companies will simply go ahead and try to compete by releasing the same prototype, remains to be seen.

Regards all,

Toby
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
I think you should have put all the Eureka models under "late".

Iain
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
I think you should have put all the Eureka models under "late".

Iain
Iain
Dunno why I should speak up for You Reeka, but they are certainly not Robinson Crusoe in that regard.
  a6et Minister for Railways

Dunno why I should speak up for You Reeka, but they are certainly not Robinson Crusoe in that regard.
John_Bushell
Very true, & the only models that are not late are those that pop up at an exhibition, such as OTM when they brought out the LLV's.

Since then, & they have announced models in advance & with questimated arrivals, non have arrived on time.

The worst aspect of a particular company is their seeming refusal to release their non sound models before the sound equipped ones are also ready.  Given an item that I read on another group that said QSI were having problems with some of their new u boot after market sound decoders, they were giving a priority to OEM's owing to a long list of delays, so, one must wonder where on the list our OZ company is.

As the non sound CPH's were released first, I honestly do not see any reason why any loco project should be delayed if the reason is waiting for the sound component. That applies to each & all of them & not just one.
  railmod Chief Train Controller

Snip..
 Neither have we yet seen samples of the D50's
snip..

Toby
DQ2004
I believe that an engineering sample of the 50 is with Eureka ATM, If that's the case then hopefully it will be on display at the Brickpit next weekend, not that it matter much to me as I'm more after the 53.

Cheers Alex.
  anzac1959 Chief Commissioner

I believe that an engineering sample of the 50 is with Eureka ATM, If that's the case then hopefully it will be on display at the Brickpit next weekend, not that it matter much to me as I'm more after the 53.

Cheers Alex.
railmod

It will be interesting to see as I have a soft spot for 5069 and that's one he doing. And apparently separate tenders will be available also once done.
  a6et Minister for Railways

It will be interesting to see as I have a soft spot for 5069 and that's one he doing. And apparently separate tenders will be available also once done.
anzac1959

Anzac, I would be checking the wording of the news re the separate tenders with the first run, before expecting too much at first.
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
Yes well samples of the R class have been knocking around for years as have those of the E and tank wagons so these are no guide to timeliness. I was told at the Hobsons Bay 2012 show that the E and tank wagons were "10 weeks away" so the word directly from the proprietor is no guide either.

Iain
  a6et Minister for Railways

Yes well samples of the R class have been knocking around for years as have those of the E and tank wagons so these are no guide to timeliness. I was told at the Hobsons Bay 2012 show that the E and tank wagons were "10 weeks away" so the word directly from the proprietor is no guide either.

Iain
Iain
& that is the whole issue with the merry melodies syndrome isn't it?  How long ago was it that there were several 40cl samples on show?  I remember seeing them at Hurstville, & lets not mention the amount of news releases that says they were approved for production, signed off on, & goodness knows how many other similar statements since September 2008, news that included the numbers for the models in the production runs. Or was that meant to imply a gastric attack somewhere in the chain?

Oh! & that is not a sole domain thing either.
  Laser Rail Bits Locomotive Driver

Location: Goulburn NSW
Very true, & the only models that are not late are those that pop up at an exhibition, such as OTM when they brought out the LLV's.

Since then, & they have announced models in advance & with questimated arrivals, non have arrived on time.

The worst aspect of a particular company is their seeming refusal to release their non sound models before the sound equipped ones are also ready.  Given an item that I read on another group that said QSI were having problems with some of their new u boot after market sound decoders, they were giving a priority to OEM's owing to a long list of delays, so, one must wonder where on the list our OZ company is.

As the non sound CPH's were released first, I honestly do not see any reason why any loco project should be delayed if the reason is waiting for the sound component. That applies to each & all of them & not just one.
a6et

All,

Maybe a bit off subject but why do Eureka continue to persevere with QSI if indeed this mob are the reasons for a lot of hold ups. I have several Eureka models ( with sound ) and must be honest they do not give me a warm and fuzzy feeling in the sound department
  a6et Minister for Railways

All,

Maybe a bit off subject but why do Eureka continue to persevere with QSI if indeed this mob are the reasons for a lot of hold ups. I have several Eureka models ( with sound ) and must be honest they do not give me a warm and fuzzy feeling in the sound department
Laser Rail Bits
Supposition only:  QSI, are pretty well the only one that is prepared to offer dealer sounds, although that may have changed with ESU.  Given that QSI does seek so called genuine sounds it means that Australian outline modellers should be getting genuine sounds.  However, in the main that is not the case as anyone who has any real idea about what is genuine & what is not can identify the few correct ones in each model.

I am the same regarding most of the alternatives on offer regarding the warmth & fuzziness. Although having seen a couple of recent youtube video's of the TCS Wow sound (only the US could come up with that name) I am more optimistic regarding their potential, even though its still generic sounds.
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Looking back into the archives we find that the Southern Rail Xplorers/Endeavours were announced in October 2011.
21 months from announcement to delivery.
Might be worth a Bronze Dugong.  The RACE Officials are investigating.

Regards all
  brissim Chief Train Controller

Looking back into the archives we find that the Southern Rail Xplorers/Endeavours were announced in October 2011.
21 months from announcement to delivery.
Might be worth a Bronze Dugong.  The RACE Officials are investigating.

Regards all
DQ2004
Yes it is a good effort. Now if only Southern Rail had done the XPTs as I believe they were originally going to do before Auscisions announcement (which were originally coming in 2011/12 and the latest estimate is 2014 - which probably means 2015).

Tony
  a6et Minister for Railways

Yes it is a good effort. Now if only Southern Rail had done the XPTs as I believe they were originally going to do before Auscisions announcement (which were originally coming in 2011/12 and the latest estimate is 2014 - which probably means 2015).

Tony
brissim

I wonder if that is the reason or a reason behind the jump in announcements to scare off others or at least put doubt in their minds???!!!!
  LaidlayM Chief Commissioner

Location: Research
Now that Trainorama are talking more definitely about the arrival of the GM class is there a known start date for this model so we can see if the GM or the R takes longer?

I suspect someone will appear here talking about a NSW railmotor from Powerline or something but by now it's should be obvious that it will never arrive so don't bother comparing it.

Mark
  Nipper Junior Train Controller

Location: Port Pirie
Now that Trainorama are talking more definitely about the arrival of the GM class is there a known start date for this model so we can see if the GM or the R takes longer?

I suspect someone will appear here talking about a NSW railmotor from Powerline or something but by now it's should be obvious that it will never arrive so don't bother comparing it.

Mark
LaidlayM

I dont know when the Eureka R was originally intended to arrive, but the earliest Trainorama newsletter I have on hand (February 2005) states that the expected delivery time for the GMs was November / December 2005.  7 years and 7 months late so far!  Their May 2005 newsletter was stating "possibly be looking at delivery prior to or just after Christmas 2005".  When I placed my order for five GM's in November 2005, the order form I downloaded on 12/11/2005 notes "Expected delivery February 2006".  The Trainorama newsletter for December 2005 had then pushed out the arrival to be expected during the last quarter of 2006.

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