At this point, the best possible move to save face would be to get the line open and start running DMUs all the way to Seaford. The shrinking portion of the general public who are still persisting with public transport don't give a rat's about the EMUs, they just want the substitute bus pain to end. The delays to the completion of electrification will not make a material difference to the eventual commencement date of electric service when EMUs are trickling over the border once every couple of months.
Laing O'Rourke can be given one month to push hard on the electrification work (maybe get all their fly-in teams here at once?) while the "signalling" work is being done. Whatever isn't done by then will have to get done with night and weekend works, at the cost to them of $150 per night hardship compensation to every resident living within 300 metres of an active site if they want to have a chance at working in SA any time in the next 50 years. It's time to tell the contractors that amateur hour is over!
On this or a related thread Justapax (I think it was) worked out that 16 sets would be required.
I am not sure if he allowed for the proposed increase in Tonsley services.
Yes, that was me and I was very open about stating it was based only on replacing the most recent full timetable of 2009-11 before any increase in services which might or might not happen (using the same signal block lengths as before might not allow for an increase in track occupancy) and adding three units to account for the extension of Noarlunga trains to Seaford. That is 16 units in service
at once during the height of the morning/afternoon peak, not including hot spares or units on maintenance cycles.
I'll defend that number on the issue of Tonsley though - I calculated that months before the Tonsley passing loop project was announced. More importantly, it's now right again as the fine print about Tonsley mentions only a half-hourly peak service with the capacity for a future four trains an hour service maybe there for the future (if the junction has the capacity without a flyover). There were already three trains an hour to/from Tonsley during the peaks of the previous full timetable, so if half-hourly peak services are on the cards it looks more like a decrease
in peak service to Tonsley is likely to happen.
Taking that number of 16, you then need to add in a hot spare ready for immediate service in a siding/platform at Adelaide, a hot spare at the Seaford Meadows depot for the same deal, and one or two on a maintenance cycle. That takes it up to 19-20, which is close enough to the full fleet in use once the remaining 2-3 units are used to increase the number of services or the capacity on premium weekday peak and post-event services - has a crowd of 540 adults actually put Bombardier's claims about the A-City's capacity to the test yet?
Based on that, it would probably be best to keep the 4000 fleet dedicated to the Seaford/Tonsley line. Electrification of the full line to Gawler Central (or hopefully Concordia) and OH/Grange lines could be delayed until the 3000/3100 fleet begins to approach life expiry and a new-build EMU order made for those lines with a transparent public competition open to manufacturers like Siemens, Alstom, CAF, Stadler, Hitachi and Polaris - but not Bombardier, their current behaviour seems to indicate they wouldn't want the work and they might still be too busy finishing off this order to put together a bid.
I am lead to believe that deliveries will increase to one complete set a fortnight in the not to distant future.
Didn't they say that back in July before deliveries were ramped up to one complete set every two months? By my count that came after four
separate "they're on the way, the first one is coming in a few weeks" hoaxes this year which named dates in January, March, April and June before the first unit finally got delivered (partially incomplete!) in late July. LOOK, A WOLF!!
A helpful tip people - if either Bombardier or the government issue a press release about anything to do with the new EMUs in the near future that includes a mention of the sky being blue, look outside.