Malcolm Turncoat's imploding act

 
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Meanwhile the latest Newspoll has the Liberals slightly ahead 51-49 and Malcolm is set to campaign again in South Australia where there's some significant concern from both parties about the likelihood of NXT winning at least two senate seats and perhaps up to three House of Reps seats. I guess we will know this time next week unless it's a repeat of 2010's incredibly close poll.
don_dunstan
Yeah, South Australia will be interesting.  I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.

Although I often loathe Paul Keating, he still comes up with the best statement of the campaign that I happen to agree with:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/paul-keating-slams-greens-anthony-albanese-in-grayndler/7543658

"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party," he said.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party,"
Paul Keating
Unlike Keating himself, who pretended to be the worker's best friend while quietly selling them out to the big end of town.
I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.
Carnot
I'm inclined to agree, I think the ALP is still on the nose with lots of electorates around Melbourne. A big unknown is the number of people voting either Green or for other minor parties and how this might affect the overall result? We'll know soon enough.

Andrew Bolt has a theory that Turnbull will be toppled by his own party and replaced with Tones the Magnificent as punishment for losing so many seats. That theory supposes that the Liberals will win government in their own right though - because there's no way on earth Tones could negotiate his way into a minority government - he proved in 2010 that he can't lower himself to negotiate that way, he considers it below him.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I don't think Tones could get blowflies to negotiate their way into a country dunny after a picnic race meeting.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party,"
Unlike Keating himself, who pretended to be the worker's best friend while quietly selling them out to the big end of town.
I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.
I'm inclined to agree, I think the ALP is still on the nose with lots of electorates around Melbourne. A big unknown is the number of people voting either Green or for other minor parties and how this might affect the overall result? We'll know soon enough.

Andrew Bolt has a theory that Turnbull will be toppled by his own party and replaced with Tones the Magnificent as punishment for losing so many seats. That theory supposes that the Liberals will win government in their own right though - because there's no way on earth Tones could negotiate his way into a minority government - he proved in 2010 that he can't lower himself to negotiate that way, he considers it below him.
don_dunstan
Isn't that the challenge for most of the senior ALP MP's. Most are well educated, some very well off having been successful in business and don't rarely in the blue collar part of town.

As for TA, we seriously do not need another recycled PM. Turnbull won't be toppled because of the 2016 election (assuming LNP wins), however he will be toppled for what they fear might happen in the 2019 election.

The issue in the Vic is a combination of factors. The Royal Commission into union corruption if you bother to dig into the less public findings, the fire union deal, the ongoing issues that many are aware of on Melbourne's building sites.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

I've managed to see a more detailed breakdown of the polling for "others".  It makes for some eye-opening reading.

The make-up of the Senate will be real interesting.  Such as:
- The ALA are likely to win 2 Senate seats (1 each from Qld and NSW).
- Ricky Muir likely to hold his seat in Vic due to disaffected ALP voters, although D. Hinch or the DLP is a chance too.
- Jacqui Lambie might just retain her seat.
- NXT will probably have 3 senators from SA.

Tree-changers in QLD might make things difficult for some Nationals MPs: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/treechangers-put-nats-at-risk-in-former-strongholds-study-20160628-gpu4u9.html
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me
I've managed to see a more detailed breakdown of the polling for "others".  It makes for some eye-opening reading.

The make-up of the Senate will be real interesting.  Such as:
- The ALA are likely to win 2 Senate seats (1 each from Qld and NSW).
- Ricky Muir likely to hold his seat in Vic due to disaffected ALP voters, although D. Hinch or the DLP is a chance too.
- Jacqui Lambie might just retain her seat.
- NXT will probably have 3 senators from SA.

Tree-changers in QLD might make things difficult for some Nationals MPs: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/treechangers-put-nats-at-risk-in-former-strongholds-study-20160628-gpu4u9.html
Carnot
Little wonder we in Adelaide are being hit with near panic "anti Independent" advertising (both radio and TV) from the Liberal Party
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Little wonder we in Adelaide are being hit with near panic "anti Independent" advertising (both radio and TV) from the Liberal Party
Pressman
Commercial TV has been awash with adverts telling me of impending disaster if I vote for Labor, the Greens or an 'independent' - there'a also be a relentless attack campaign here against Nick Xenophon from the Labor Party, I wonder if that's because they fear him more than the Liberals do?

The Liberal adverts telling me how lucky I am to have the submarines/frigates contract seems to imply it will be taken away if they lose office - my theory is that the contract might get torn up if the economy deteriorates substantially anyway. I was reading the other day that there's some very carefully worded cancellation clauses in that contract that might mean the whole thing could potentially get off-shored or cancelled if the government of the day changes its mind.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Little wonder we in Adelaide are being hit with near panic "anti Independent" advertising (both radio and TV) from the Liberal Party
Commercial TV has been awash with adverts telling me of impending disaster if I vote for Labor, the Greens or an 'independent' - there'a also be a relentless attack campaign here against Nick Xenophon from the Labor Party, I wonder if that's because they fear him more than the Liberals do?

The Liberal adverts telling me how lucky I am to have the submarines/frigates contract seems to imply it will be taken away if they lose office - my theory is that the contract might get torn up if the economy deteriorates substantially anyway. I was reading the other day that there's some very carefully worded cancellation clauses in that contract that might mean the whole thing could potentially get off-shored or cancelled if the government of the day changes its mind.
don_dunstan
Don't be like that mate.............
Its not Melbourne's East West link after all. You'll be safe as houses, the money's in the bank, she'll be right mate......... Hahahahahahaha

Sorry, I couldn't help it. You've no subsedised car industry anymore, but there's no reason to believe a fat defence contract shouldn't have everyone over there feeling like they've been kissed on the balls??

But as far as SA jobs go, anyone heard anything from Bull Shizen and the ALP????? The whole state will probably vote for NXT regardless though?

Regards

edit Nicks lot
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Sorry, I couldn't help it. You've no subsedised car industry anymore, but there's no reason to believe a fat defence contract shouldn't have everyone over there feeling like they've been kissed on the balls??
davesvline
A defence contract, the worst kind of consolation prize because they can take it away at the stroke of a pen. It'll end up like the United States where local areas fight tooth and nail for things like prisons, defence contracts and any other scraps that the central governments can be bothered throwing our way. Lucky us. Thanks Christopher Pyne, Cory Bernardi et al - I'll certainly remember this on polling day, don't you worry.
The whole state will probably vote for NXT regardless though?
davesvline
My concern about that is that we'll be collectively punished for doing that no matter who wins - but stuff 'em both. Like the Brexit - it's about time the ruling oligarchy knew just how angry the peasantry really are.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Maybe thats it, Adelaide's future is a the Navy's construction and maintenance yard. Strategically its cheap, remote from attack and blowing up things there is going to have a low collateral out come.

My prediction for Sat
- Vic, zero extra seats for ALP. They blew it big time as people realise how much they are being screwed by the unions and weak knee'ed ALP state govt

- Tas, 1 in the north because Tassies never had to deal with immigration issues like the northern island.

- NSW, a few will go to ALP just because the NSW Premier is being so sucessful, this proves how bad the former mob were and enough reason to vote against the party and a few are stupid enough to believe the Mediscare campaign

- Qld,
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
a few are stupid enough to believe the Mediscare campaign
RTT_Rules
Are they as stupid as those believing the Jobs and Growth mantra?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
NSW, a few will go to ALP just because the NSW Premier is being so sucessful...
RTT_Rules
Successfully promoting more gambling in NSW - James Packer being allowed to build a casino on what was once a park. A nice job for Mike Baird after politics on the Crown board I'm sure.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
News that will send shivers down the spines of both Turnbull and Shorten: Nick Xenophon Team predicted to take between one and three House of Representatives seats and perhaps as many as three Senate spots on Saturday (ABC News). The Senate is looking much worse for both parties while the House of Reps seems likely to be incapable of delivering a majority for either side - but we'll soon find out. Are we about to see the end of majority governments in Australia?

And bad news for the Bill Shorten - if the betting agencies are anything to go by then their chances of winning office have collapsed: SportsBet and Betfair have increased their odds of forming government to 8:1 and 9:1 respectively.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Is this a bad thing for SA?? Can a local comment?
I'd say it depends on the final look of the parliament as to whether Nick can swing deals in return for his party's vote that gets stuff for his home state, that may not have happened otherwise?

Regards
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
So Don_Dunstan, are you suggesting we could possibly have another hung parliament??
  Newcastle Express Chief Commissioner

I regret that I have to apologise - to all the monkeys for saying that we are voting for a bunch of monkeys! (No offence meant to any monkeys!) Laughing


At least a bunch of monkey would behave in parliament - and wouldn't tell lies - like our politicians do.

As the now "discontinued" (whatever happened to no cuts to the ABC?) ABC Factscheck stated, all sides lie, deliberately twist the truth, etc.

I did catch Turnbull out yesterday, saying that you won't have to pay more to see the doctors, have a blood test, etc. Incorrect, bulked bill patients WILL now have to pay more.

And Shorten doesn't get off either, as remember he left out part of what Turnbull said to suit his agenda.

And Factscheck even caught out Jackie Lambie with misinformation.
And others as well.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Is this a bad thing for SA?? Can a local comment?
I'd say it depends on the final look of the parliament as to whether Nick can swing deals in return for his party's vote that gets stuff for his home state, that may not have happened otherwise?
davesvline
My fear is that we might end up being collectively punished for voting in a minority party - some of the adverts the Liberals have been running here are alluding to the threat of taking the military contracts away from us. But I can't say I really care about the submarines and frigates - I think their benefits to the local economy are greatly exaggerated anyway.
So Don_Dunstan, are you suggesting we could possibly have another hung parliament??
Israilfan
I hope for all our sakes that we do - I think a hung parliament/minority government will kick the complacency out of both sides of politics.

I didn't particularly like Julia Gillard but the fact was that in that situation she performed much better than Tones did in being able to negotiate a government - whereas if Tony Windsor is to be believed, Tonrs went to them and demanded that they give him their votes unconditionally (which tends to prove that he has no nous when it comes to negotiation).
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Without a hung parliament will the general Australian population be invited to a Liberal or Labor dinner and find themselves on the menu ?  Crying or Very sad
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
On closer inspection the hung parliament wasn't as bad as some make out. Likewise with the Senate.

Legislation got through and on most (honest) accounts it was of better quality.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Despite some minor changes, LNP will be back in on a reduced majority (6-7 seats less) but ALP unlikely to pick up one seat in Vic.

The senate will have some minor changes but I doubt too much, but the new biggest challenge for the new LNP govt is getting the budget through, if the senate rejects the budget, realistically the govt may need to go back to the polls. To me this is far more concern that whats happening in the lower house. The question for the Upper House is, did the voters state we want LNP so pass the budget, or did they say we voted for you in the senate to block the budget?

ALP's campaign and its supporter campaign will probably go on the record books as being one of their worst attempts, I mean some of the absolute tripe, misinformation, selective history and irrelevance spread in facebook by some of my friends, seriously!
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Despite some minor changes, LNP will be back in on a reduced majority (6-7 seats less) but ALP unlikely to pick up one seat in Vic.

The senate will have some minor changes but I doubt too much, but the new biggest challenge for the new LNP govt is getting the budget through, if the senate rejects the budget, realistically the govt may need to go back to the polls. To me this is far more concern that whats happening in the lower house. The question for the Upper House is, did the voters state we want LNP so pass the budget, or did they say we voted for you in the senate to block the budget?

ALP's campaign and its supporter campaign will probably go on the record books as being one of their worst attempts, I mean some of the absolute tripe, misinformation, selective history and irrelevance spread in facebook by some of my friends, seriously!
RTT_Rules
Interesting you say that, because a Channel 9 Exit poll, has the LNP and ALP at 50-50 over 25 seats, Also a 7 news reachtel poll, has the LNP and ALP at 51%-49% to party preferred , still to close to call for mine
Kind Regards
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
And the abc result page shows a 12% swing against ALP.

We will find out soon enough but 50:50 I doubt
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Martin Hamilton-Smith tells voters on his way into the polling booths that Jamie Briggs must go because he's contributing to the wreaking of South Australia's industries (ABC News). Interesting comment from a man who was once Liberal Party aristocracy and state opposition leader for a time.

The polls are now closed in SA and the counting has begun; we'll soon know what the general picture is although the election result itself may not be known for a while?
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me

The polls are now closed in SA and the counting has begun; we'll soon know what the general picture is although the election result itself may not be known for a while?
don_dunstan
A rather interesting occurrence at my local polling booth (within the Port Adelaide Electorate), I joined the line at 5pm, had a 15 minute wait as they only had one person marking voters off the roll, then at 5:30pm (30mins prior to closing time) they were directing new arrivals to other polling booths as they had run out of senate voting papers!!!!
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville

ALP's campaign and its supporter campaign will probably go on the record books as being one of their worst attempts, I mean some of the absolute tripe, misinformation, selective history and irrelevance spread in facebook by some of my friends, seriously!
RTT_Rules
I was at the AFR Infrastructure Summit a fortnight before polling day where we had to endure no less than three Liberal ministers over the two days - absolute tripe, misinformation, selective history and irrelevance were the order of the day.

It works both ways.

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