Malcolm Turncoat's imploding act

 
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Meanwhile the latest Newspoll has the Liberals slightly ahead 51-49 and Malcolm is set to campaign again in South Australia where there's some significant concern from both parties about the likelihood of NXT winning at least two senate seats and perhaps up to three House of Reps seats. I guess we will know this time next week unless it's a repeat of 2010's incredibly close poll.
don_dunstan
Yeah, South Australia will be interesting.  I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.

Although I often loathe Paul Keating, he still comes up with the best statement of the campaign that I happen to agree with:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/paul-keating-slams-greens-anthony-albanese-in-grayndler/7543658

"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party," he said.

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  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party,"
Paul Keating
Unlike Keating himself, who pretended to be the worker's best friend while quietly selling them out to the big end of town.
I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.
Carnot
I'm inclined to agree, I think the ALP is still on the nose with lots of electorates around Melbourne. A big unknown is the number of people voting either Green or for other minor parties and how this might affect the overall result? We'll know soon enough.

Andrew Bolt has a theory that Turnbull will be toppled by his own party and replaced with Tones the Magnificent as punishment for losing so many seats. That theory supposes that the Liberals will win government in their own right though - because there's no way on earth Tones could negotiate his way into a minority government - he proved in 2010 that he can't lower himself to negotiate that way, he considers it below him.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I don't think Tones could get blowflies to negotiate their way into a country dunny after a picnic race meeting.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
"[The Greens are] political opportunists and Trots [Trotskyists] hiding behind a gum tree, pretending to be the Labor Party,"
Unlike Keating himself, who pretended to be the worker's best friend while quietly selling them out to the big end of town.
I think Malcolm will be returned as PM, mainly because of the inability of the ALP to win any Vic marginals.
I'm inclined to agree, I think the ALP is still on the nose with lots of electorates around Melbourne. A big unknown is the number of people voting either Green or for other minor parties and how this might affect the overall result? We'll know soon enough.

Andrew Bolt has a theory that Turnbull will be toppled by his own party and replaced with Tones the Magnificent as punishment for losing so many seats. That theory supposes that the Liberals will win government in their own right though - because there's no way on earth Tones could negotiate his way into a minority government - he proved in 2010 that he can't lower himself to negotiate that way, he considers it below him.
don_dunstan
Isn't that the challenge for most of the senior ALP MP's. Most are well educated, some very well off having been successful in business and don't rarely in the blue collar part of town.

As for TA, we seriously do not need another recycled PM. Turnbull won't be toppled because of the 2016 election (assuming LNP wins), however he will be toppled for what they fear might happen in the 2019 election.

The issue in the Vic is a combination of factors. The Royal Commission into union corruption if you bother to dig into the less public findings, the fire union deal, the ongoing issues that many are aware of on Melbourne's building sites.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I've managed to see a more detailed breakdown of the polling for "others".  It makes for some eye-opening reading.

The make-up of the Senate will be real interesting.  Such as:
- The ALA are likely to win 2 Senate seats (1 each from Qld and NSW).
- Ricky Muir likely to hold his seat in Vic due to disaffected ALP voters, although D. Hinch or the DLP is a chance too.
- Jacqui Lambie might just retain her seat.
- NXT will probably have 3 senators from SA.

Tree-changers in QLD might make things difficult for some Nationals MPs: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/treechangers-put-nats-at-risk-in-former-strongholds-study-20160628-gpu4u9.html
  Pressman