Proposed Timtables for CityRail/Sydney and CountryLink/NSW

 
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

And a version of the Main West:

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8404/8696285030_0f8a589076_k.jpg

Notable Features:
  • Mountains trains OSCARED (3 DK Series V Set shuttles feed these - the 3 Sisters:  Khloe, Kourtney and Kim)
  • Most Mountains trains ex-Springwood, 2 ex Lawson (assuming the loading gauge issues are trivially resolved of course) from the new sidings they have up there
  • 6tph exp Penrith, mostly express
  • 4tph ex St Marys
  • 4tph ex Schofields
  • 2tph ex Richmond
  • Common stopping pattern, but all trains run non stop Parramatta to Central.  (Clyde connectors shifted to Sector 2)

There is a supplementary version assuming the fleet is standardised on modern sets, and a few "minor" mods are made (notably to remove a lot of the superfluous crossovers, and perhaps a few high speed crossovers where they are actually used) to get the line reboarded (mostly) 130kph Penrith - Ashfield, then 100kph to Central.  Disappointingly this time-table only saves 11 min over the best possible as per now, and part of that is an extra stop skipped.  Never the less, Springwood to the city is ~70 minutes (30 of that wriggling through the mountains) and close enough to a suburban travel time.

Snippet:

Sponsored advertisement

  djf01 Chief Commissioner

DJF, I cannot read your timetable, could you change the format to Excel or put it on google docs if possible?
bowralcommuter
Try this: https://mega.co.nz/#!TEMSXCRA!cz0MFTUfgdXdJGbQuBxPlDvD_rk24VOq-D0s3bzbdfY
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Here is my latest thinking on fleet management in a post XPT world, using the XPT trailers an loco hauled trains.

The idea here is:
  • - leave the NW alone!
  • - reform the NCL so there is one large day train each way, and one UP-DOWN DMU from half way (Wauchope/Pt Macquarie)
  • - the main south gets a large day train each way, an also an UP-DOWN DMU from half way (Wagga).
  • - The Dubbo XPT becomes a DMU.

For this, we need:
  • a fleet of 5 new 4500hp locos.  
  • To boost DMU productivity *and* to bring the seat numbers up to spec, 5 XF 2nd class trailers are converted to run as Xplorer trailers, and 2 XBR buffet trailers converted as well.
  • One Endeavour needs to be re-allocated from the Hunter fleet.
  • The Canberra route is Endeavourised using the Goulburn Endeavour fleet.

North Coast Sets:
XFH -XF- XF- XF- XF- XBR- [XF-] XF- XF- XF- XFH    11 cars, 653 Seats.  x2

Melbourne Sets:
XFH -XF- XL- XL- XBR- [XL-] XL- XF- XFH    9 cars, 469 Seats  x2

DMU Fleet:
LE -XB [-XF] -XBA -XB  -XA    6 cars (4 driving, 2 trailers), 367 Seats (98 in the Endeavour car,  falls to ~60 if it's converted to XP style seating)

XC - XB - XF - LT  4 cars (3 driving, 1 trailer) 270 seats
XC - XB - XF - XA 4 cars, 224 seats  x5
XC - XA 2 cars, 90 seats  x3

A rough timetable:
North Coast:
SYD 8:00 - GFS 18:00 {- BRS 22:00}  650 seats
{BRS 6:00} - GFS 10:00 - SYD 20:00  

WCH 7:00 - SYD 14:00 - WCH 21:00   350 seats

This delivers 1000 daytime seats on the north coast (though only 650 beyond Mt Macquaire) vs 700 day seats, 310 night seats and 20 night sleeping berths now.  It requires 45hrs of train operation vs 72 now saving ~$15mil per year.  
Most of the Nth coast gets a morning and afternoon train (much as now), but no night train.

Melbourne:
SYD 7:00 - WAG 14:00 - MLB 20:00    470 Seats
MLB 7:00 - WAG 13:00 - SYD 20:00
WAG 7:00 - SYD 14:00 - WAG 21:00   220 Seats

This provides 700 day seats (470 south of Wagga) vs 350 day and 320 night seats and 19 sleeping berths.

Again, user north of Wagga get 2 day day trains: early and late, vs a day and night train now.
40 hrs of train operation vs 50 now.  That's going to save ~$6mil a year, but (at least) halve the $12mil payment from the Victorian government for operating the XPTs to Melbourne.

That leaves a "spare" half rake of trailers (sleepers set up for daytime running):
XFH - XL - XAM - XAM - XAM - XBR  (211 seats)

And left over completely:
1 x XBR
5 x XAM

Retired:
19 x XPs

The marginal savings for operating the trains this way is small (or at least smaller than I expected), but even if it's only $15mil a year, the capital costs of setting this up are between $15 and $30mil (Chinese vs Western locos), meaning the worst ROI is 50%.

The estimated savings are very rough and only based on reduced train operating hours, not factoring in the economies of scale of the larger north coast trains.  Where I suspect the big savings will be is this scheme would allow Meaks Road (with it's custom parts, industrial relations issues etc) to be decommissioned, and much of the fleet heavy (and minor) maintenance put out to competative tender.  This is not really something I can put a number on.  But if Meaks Rd is costing less than $50mil a year then I'm not here.

The primary advantage I see with this scheme is the viable economic life of loco hauled fleet is pushed out to 2030 or so, guaranteeing CL's future.  The DMU fleet will start to need replacing in 10 years or so, but earlier would probably yield significant savings as a modern 200-300 seat DMU would have 2 PCs and 2 trailers and lower running costs by design over and above just being newer.
  Watson374 Chief Commissioner

Location: Fully reclined at the pointy end.
I'm back. I had a go at the Southern Region.

DOWN
UP

PS: I'm able to bump up the Griffith frequency because I'm recovered two sets from the North West, as part of a complete overhaul of the North West and North Coast. I'm quite sure djf01 will be kept wide awake wondering what in the Empire I've done this time, and I apologise in advance for any sleepless nights, cold and hot flashes in bed, excessive consumption of alcohol, etc. (SPOILER: I did NOT use overnight trains.)
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I'm back. I had a go at the Southern Region.

DOWN
UP

PS: I'm able to bump up the Griffith frequency because I'm recovered two sets from the North West, as part of a complete overhaul of the North West and North Coast. I'm quite sure djf01 will be kept wide awake wondering what in the Empire I've done this time, and I apologise in advance for any sleepless nights, cold and hot flashes in bed, excessive consumption of alcohol, etc. (SPOILER: I did NOT use overnight trains.)
Watson374
And so you should apologise!  I'll forgive you if you reimburse me for my excessive alcohol consumption though.

But I get it: 2 XPT sets running Syd-Albury in 8hrs means 3 trains a day (or two a day, one overnight) connecting with V-Line.
  Watson374 Chief Commissioner

Location: Fully reclined at the pointy end.
I'll just match your consumption with additional supply.

Um, I've had issues with maintenance turnarounds at Meeks so I'm going to execute another rebuild. The Southern timetable won't change very much at all. It will retain two Albury trains and one Melbourne train, giving me two daylight trains and one overnight train each way. The morning-out/overnight-back Albury train connects with V/Line's evening Albury pass, but their morning Albury pass is not great for connections, so I've used that slot for the through service to Melbourne. Unfortunately, their midday Albury pass is impossible to connect with - too early for a train ex-SYD.

I'll be back when I've reslotted my services, and the 'proceeds to' notes will magically disappear.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Privatised Loco Hauled CountryLink using XPT Coach Fleet BoE Business Plan

Summary
Operate the NCL and Main South train services using 4 large trains made up of new modern locos hauling the legacy XPT coach fleet.

Features:
- One train a day in each direction (with red eye returns on Fridays and Sundays during peak holiday seasons).
- Train operating costs of $2000/hr
- Purchase of 5 new modern locos (either GT46s or C44s) for $30mil
- Train consists of: XFH – XF – XF – XF – XF – XBF – XL – XF – XF – XF – XFH (639 seats)

- Timetable:
Sydney: 08:00 – Grafton South: 18:00    (With 20:00 arrival time for most connecting coach destinations)
Grafton South: 10:00 – Sydney: 20:00    (With 08:00 departure time for most connecting coach origins)
Sydney: 08:00 – Melbourne: 20:00  
Melbourne: 08:00 – Sydney: 20:00  

- Daily train operating hours: 44. Bus Operations ~60hrs

- Daily operating costs 44 x $2000 + 60 x $200 = $100k.

- Annual operating costs (allowing for days of red eye service) = $38mil

- Patronage assumptions 620kpa:  NCL: 350, Sth: 270 (80% of the current patronage)

- ARPU $60 ($0.10/km for an average 600km trip)
- Total Fare annual revenue: $37mil

- Ongoing Subsidy for the Syd-Mlb service $6mil (half the $12mil the Vic government currently pays for the twice a day XPT service).

- Additional Capex ($2mil):
- Recommission the turntable at Sth Grafton
- Install some sort of power conversion facility in the XFH's to draw hotel power from the locos.


Income: ($mil)
Fare $37
Fees $6
Total: $43

Expenses:
Train Ops: $38
Total: $38

ROA: $5/$32 = 15%
ROI: $4.5/$16 = 28% (Assuming 50% gearing)

Comments:
- The NCL is profitable in it's own right using this model. It would also work with continuing the service to Brisbane (add 8hrs of train operations for an extra $6mil pa in costs) with continuation of the existing Qld Gvt subsidy.

- The Southern Line still requires a subsidy to work. Without the subsidy terminating the train at Albury would fix the cost side of the equation, but it's unlikely patronage could be sustain in this case.

- For the project to work, the operation would require some form of ongoing support for the southern line (no more than half that currently provided by the Vic government), a concessional lease of the XPT coach fleet and some sort of CSO support for the $2/trip pensioners to maintain an ARPU of $60.

- Up front capital requirements would be ~$16mil (depending on the loco financing arrangements) and should produce an ROI in excess of ~25%.
  s3_gunzel Not a gunzel developer

Location: Western Sydney, AU
I should note, they allocate seats to car D (the EA IIRC) last on the Canberra Explorer (so if they don't need to they don't have to clean it), and it is rare on weekdays for anyone to be allocated a seat there if they don't ask for it.
djf01
Good luck, the EA is first class - and car A.
  donttellmywife Chief Commissioner

Location: Antofagasta

- Patronage assumptions 620kpa:  NCL: 350, Sth: 270 (80% of the current patronage)

- ARPU $60 ($0.10/km for an average 600km trip)
djf01
In terms of the north coast, do you really think that with a reduction from three services per direction per day down to one, with that single service no longer reaching two of the major (relatively) patronage generators on that route, 80% of current patronage is realistic?  

If that sort of service reduction was possible without tanking patronage, then I expect that you would have already seen that sort of change.

Average distance travelled by a passenger across the regional network was only 356 km in 2013/2014.  The characteristics of the complete regional network are obviously different to those two lines, but I still think your average distance rather high - in terms of Sydney to Grafton that would effectively require all passengers to travel end to end.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

This is a carry on from https://www.railpage.com.au/f-t11395692.htm (and to a less extent https://www.railpage.com.au/f-t11368621.htm).  My ideas on what to do with the South Coast Line:

Proposed Schedule of Work:


Proposed Timetable: (detail: https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4365/36335498996_80531e8065_o.png )
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

This is a carry on from https://www.railpage.com.au/f-t11395692.htm (and to a less extent https://www.railpage.com.au/f-t11368621.htm).  My ideas on what to do with the South Coast Line:
djf01

Explanation:

This is a package of measures that in concert, are designed to deliver a sub 1hr Sydney - South Coast (Shellharbour) rail service.  It involves a combination of selective deviations, amplification, rollingstock and perway upgrades to achieve this.

1) New Fleet: 10 x 7 car Tilting Pendolinos, top speed of 250kph, intended for 200kph running on existing perway (with appropriate necessary adjustments to the perway to facilitiate this) and 250kph on new straight sections of perway.

Each set is intended to have 650 seats, predominantly 2+3.  They are not short dwell, and not intended for use on the ESR.

Two of the 10 sets are hybrids, able to operate south of Kiama at reduced (ie same as the Endeavour) speeds to provide a bi-hourly direct service to Bomaderry.

2) Terminal Facilities:
Operate out of Platform 21 at Central.  To facilitate this, the Main Illawarra (Up) is re-integrated into the flying junctions.
The primary Shellharbour Junction platform is extended to allow same platform DMU interchange for further south.

3) Amplification:
- Crossovers and signalling to allow Up-Up Down-Down operation between Hurstville and Wolli Creek, also creating a turnback at Hursville.  Only the outer platforms are serviced, the inner platforms are fenced (allowing speed board increases).
- Restoration of the pre 1905 alignment (the current Mortdale Shed's wash road) to create an overtaking facility.

4) Deviations:
- Mackell Ave
- Cawley Tunnel
- Helensburg & Lilyfield tunnels (restoration of the pre 1915 alignment)
- Otford Deviations (Curve easing)
- Stanwell Park Deviation: new Otford Tunnel, and a single track bypass along the pre 1915 alignment to Coal Cliff
- Wombarra deviation: curve easing to Coledale
- Austinmer deviation: removal of a one tight curve Nth of Austinmer

This effectively produces a 3rd single track express road from South Waterfall to Coledale (similar to a single bore tunnel version of the project) for about $550ml (vs $1.5b for a single bore tunnel).

This removes most of the sub 1000m curves bar two sections:
a) Helensburg to the south end of the former Waterfall Tunnel,
b) Scarborough to Coal Cliff (Coal Cliff tunnel)

Combined with a 250mm allowable Cant deviation, this should allow a Sutherland to Thirroul (reduced to 38km) Transit time of under 20 minutes.  (Ave speed of 135km/hr)

5) Perway Upgrades
The biggest impediment to improved safe speeds are the 9 level crossings on the line.  POne is closed, 8 are replaced with overpasses.

The timetable is designed for a 55 minute running time.  Off peak there are 2 trains an hour servicing the South Coast, and 2 trains an hour servicing all stations Coniston to Coal Cliff.  

During the peak there are 4 pendolino services an hour for the south coast, and Wollongong to Coal Cliff are serviced by supplementary H sets (the only way I could get the seat count to work).  These are slower, and get overtaken by not one, but two south coast services.  I wish I could make this faster, but the combination of all stops and slower running time around the curves really precludes this.

During the peak the pendolino services are supplemented by H sets, ex Port Kembla - offering direct (but much slower) City services.  They get overtaken by not one, but two consecutive south Hence the South Coast stop at Thirroul is eliminated.  The South Coast stop at Thirroul is eliminated to keep PAX on the overtaken DDs.  A bit cruel, but the only way I could make the seat count work.

A single 4 car EMU provides a bi-hourly Sutherland - Thirroul shuttle on the old route.  

Nowra gets a direct Hybrid service - sub 2hr to Sydney - every 2 hours.  On the alternate hour there is a 50m DMU ride that connects with an Electric Pendolino to Sydney (also sub 2 hrs total transit time).  

Helensburg gets an hourly extension of a Waterfall suburban pattern service, as well as the Sutherland-Thirroul shuttle.

I make the cost of this ~$1.3-$1.5 bil.  

I would expect the resulting system to have patronage grow rapidly to ~40k PAX/day (typical of Sydney's outer suburban lines), with a revenue potential of ~$60mil pa.  This would put the system at, or slightly above operational cost recovery.

The biggest limitation is keeping it to 4 slots an hour into Sydney on Sector 1.  To increase capacity beyond that would require train and platform extensions.
  billybaxter Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Good luck with Stanwell Park.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Good luck with Stanwell Park.
billybaxter

This is my concept for Stanwell Park:



A tunnel from Otford to the Village, and then the pre 1920 alignment
  tonyp Chief Commissioner

Location: Shoalhaven
Thank you for all that djf01.

I think the first thing is that no government will do this until everybody on the south coast becomes a swinging voter. Labor takes them all for granted and the Libs will only do the minimum they need to to keep their seats at Kiama and Nowra - which is basically motorway.

Having used Pendolinos in Europe I don't believe they're necessary on the south coast line which is mostly pretty straight except for what needs to be done between Waterfall and Coledale and the present curves there are too sharp to activate the tilting at lower speeds. Also they wouldn't have the capacity considering the large population. It's a job for double deck long distance commuter trains.

In your timetable, are stops like Minnamurra and Berry missing just to save space or are you deleting them?

I appreciate your list of works that you think need to be done thanks.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Thank you for all that djf01.

I think the first thing is that no government will do this until everybody on the south coast becomes a swinging voter. Labor takes them all for granted and the Libs will only do the minimum they need to to keep their seats at Kiama and Nowra - which is basically motorway.
tonyp


With a bit more work I think I might be able to make at least a partial financial business case for it.


Having used Pendolinos in Europe I don't believe they're necessary on the south coast line which is mostly pretty straight except for what needs to be done between Waterfall and Coledale and the present curves there are too sharp to activate the tilting at lower speeds.

Tilting trains come into their own with curve radii between 1000m and 2000m.  But even for curves as sharp as 300m there is a benefit.  If they were to go with the direct tunnel then the tilting trains would not be of as much benefit, and something like my proposed timetable would be achievable with more traditional rolling stock (but not H sets).  It's the tilting trains that allow my cheaper curve easing rather than curve elimination approach to deliver the sub 60min transit time.


Also they wouldn't have the capacity considering the large population. It's a job for double deck long distance commuter trains.

The Shire and Campbelltown regions in Sydney have a weekday trip to population ratio of about 9%.  For 200k in the Wollongong region and 200k in Dapto/Shellharbour region, using a 10% ratio I get ~40k per day.  That's 10-15k per peak, or 5-6k in the peak for each of the South Coast and upper Illawarra.  I make that 6 OSCARs (900 seats + 200 standing) and 8 pendolinos (650 seats in 2+3 config + 150 standing) over a two hour peak.  Slots on Sector 1 are the limiting factor here.

Longer term, if the Shoalhaven is to be opened up a dormatory suburb of Sydney, then a Kiama Bypass would really be needed: a new line up the Jerrara Valley tunnelling under Saddleback ridge connecting to the current line at Gerringong.  But that would also probably need duplication from Ununderra to Shellharbour, some sort of amplification of Thirroul to Waterfall and more slots into Sydney somehow.  (Or longer trains)


In your timetable, are stops like Minnamurra and Berry missing just to save space or are you deleting them?

Yes, left out just for brevity.  

Ideally, Bombo station would be closed and replaced with a new station at Kiama Downs.
  tonyp Chief Commissioner

Location: Shoalhaven
I don't agree with a Kiama bypass. Kiama is already one of the destinations of Shoalhaven journeys and vice versa. There's commuting from and to Shoalhaven already, mainly up to Wollongong, but also to Sydney. The latter is mostly by car as the train journey is too slow. South Coast also has a high degree of counter-commuting because Wollongong is a major city and education centre in its own right. So a number of commuters come from Sydney to Wollongong.

I'd close both Bombo and Minnamurra and put a station halfway between at Kiama Downs, straightening out the track wriggles there as part of the work.

Given your assessment of the speed and curves necessary for tilting, looking at my track diagram, there are only about three or four places between Sydney and Waterfall / Coledale and Nowra where the train would even get to tilt and that only briefly. Not worth such an expensive technology for so little benefit. Tilt would be good for some of the many more winding lines through NSW. South Coast is basically pretty straight (except for Waterfall-Coledale), that's what most people don't seem to get.
  billybaxter Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
My thoughts were that Stanwell Park would be more a political than a technical problem. Also, I don't think long distance commuting should be encouraged, so the possibility of making the Shoalhaven district a dormitory area for Sydney would be a negative point for me.
  tonyp Chief Commissioner

Location: Shoalhaven
I don't think long distance commuting should be encouraged, so the possibility of making the Shoalhaven district a dormitory area for Sydney would be a negative point for me.
billybaxter
You're in a rapidly vanishing minority in that regard. An increasing number of people can no longer afford to live in Sydney, but still have to work there.

https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20August%208%202017%20-%2080266431&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20August%208%202017%20-%2080266431+CID_64fd36d23fa0e73805f5fb5a9642f318&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=This%20is%20how%20regional%20rail%20can%20help%20ease%20our%20big%20cities%20commuter%20crush
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Short North UpgradesThis is my second attempt at posting this Sad.

This is an idea I've been toying with for a while.  But I was pleasantly surprised at the CBA when I quantified what I had in mind.





Summary:

- Short North made single track, with primary crossing loops at Fassifern, Wyong, Woy Woy and Hornsby/Asquith (Down Main, Up Main goes to ARTC).  Secondary crosses at Cardiff, Morriset, Gosford, Brooklyn & Chatswood

- Serviced by 250kph capable Pendolinos.

- Newcastle gets a 30min freq service off peak, 15min service peak 70min run time

- Gosford gets a 15 min service off peak, 8tph peak, 35/40 min run time

- Hubs out of *North* Sydney

- ARTC gets it's own a dedicated freight line from Homebush to Newcastle.

Major Deviations:
- Triple St Leonards to Hornsby (mostly)
- Triple Hornsby - Mt K

- A new Cowan Bank
- Wondabyne
- Warnerville
- Errang/Awaba

Minor Deviations (usually restoring old alignments)
- Vales Point
- Morriset
- Fassifern
- Booragul
- Cardiff
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Short North Upgrades

 But I was pleasantly surprised at the CBA when I quantified what I had in mind.
djf01

From the back of my envelope:

  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Short North Upgrades Capital Works:
djf01



I put all this in my price model and it was surprisingly cheap.  

Much of the groundwork for amplifying the North Shore has already been done.  All overpasses are already wide enough to take more tracks.  Most of the earthworks has been done.  Only a few bridges over new motorways was required.

The Cowan Bank isn't all that long.  This was done with under 2000m of new tunnels.  Most of the deviations north of Gosford are re-instatement of old alignments.

Most of the platforms are already 200m+ long (to handle 8car+ V sets).
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Short North Upgrades

Major Deviations:
- Triple St Leonards to Hornsby (mostly)
- Triple Hornsby - Mt K

- A new Cowan Bank
- Wondabyne
- Warnerville
- Errang/Awaba

Minor Deviations (usually restoring old alignments)
- Vales Point
- Morriset
- Fassifern
- Booragul
- Cardiff
djf01

Lower Cowan Bank


800m double track viaduct
1500m single bore tunnel
1100m viaduct/embackment double track
1000m single track (ARTC bypass)
And a few points ~$240mil

Upper Cowan: (This is mostly flat)



and not so flat (probably ~700m of tunnel, lots of cuts & some embankments) $110mil

Sponsored advertisement

Subscribers: wurx

Display from: