As a numbers person, I am finding all of the data is interesting to read.Just click on the 'more' link for each result, whether it be the national result at the top, the state/territory results or the individual divisions. Each one has the overall response rate, the male/female response rate, and broken down by age group.
I have been playing around looking at the numbers, I wish it was easier to see an overall turnout though.
Yeah, I had already seen that, but given that this was not a compulsory vote, I would have liked the overall turnout specified right at the front next to the vote result. The breakdown by age and gender is okay to go finding, I think for me the overall turnout could have been made more clear at a glance. In any survey it is important to know what the return rate for the statistics were.
In terms of analysing turnout/response, this is by far the best presentation of the information I've ever come across in Australia. Of course, turnout is not considered to be a factor in normal elections so that would explain why it is given little attention in Australia.
I think the lower response rates for 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 would be a reflection of the cynicism towards politicians at the moment.
The reason these breakdowns are so good (once you get to them) is because with a survey conducted in this way you actually can
produce these figures, as you would know from experience in a standard election, anonymous voting means that the only statistic you can accurately get is gross numbers of who voted for who, and who didn't vote according to names left uncrossed, which votes went which way by age is unobtainable.
This survey data will provide me with lots of interesting tutorial type questions for statistics students.
I find the seat of Blaxland to be interesting! Jason Clare has been hounding the Turnbull/government just to hold a Parliamentary vote on this, presumably he is keen to through his support toward allowing SSM, and yet in the numbers we find him sitting in the 'most no' seat... He's publicly told Turnbull to 'go a pair' and have the vote, Jason Clare is going to need a reasonably big pair himself (and a terrific PR team) if he is going to vote his own way according to his previous statements.It's not just Blaxland, the next eight highest results for the no vote were all ALP divisions.
It looks like large portions of the parliamentary ALP are out of touch with the base, which might point to an election of realignment coming in the not too distant future.
Of the 17 divisions voting no, the parliamentary representation is broken down by:
ALP : 11
None (Bennelong, seat vacant pending by-election): 1
Three states did not have a single division vote no: Tasmania (to be expected from the Greens heartland), SA and WA (a surprise from two states that have traditionally been fairly socially conservative).
That is true, my point was that Jason Clare had been particularly
vocal in recent days/weeks, and yet his seat ended up being the most conservative in the survey.
I said somewhere pages back in this thread that a sitting member whose seat goes a long way either side of 50% with a decent turnout would be potentially be being rather silly to vote against what their constituent base says. I admit, I was thinking that this might be something for some LNP to struggle with, but I didn't in all honesty think it would be such a problem for the left side.
SA is a pretty conservative place, but SA did popularly elect a 'pink safari suit wearing guy', and (though not through popular vote) decriminalise homosexuality first.