That Referendum / Postal Survey

 
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud


here is a preview of what is to come


And the problem with that is what exactly?
They're bound to upset a bunch of women who don't look that good in their dresses!
Aaron
They just need to get bridesmaids that are uglier than they are, that's what any clever bride would do Wink

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  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

Bennelong - John Alexander being caught in the citizenship saga, unable to sit for the vote is actually a stroke of genius for him! His seat, split right down the middle, short of abstaining he was always going to end up 'upsetting' half his electorate. He's dodged a bullet there Laughing
Aaron
I think he would have been a certain yes vote. After all, his problem is that he's been swinging his racquet for the other team!

(he did lose his only Davis Cup live rubber against GB)
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
As a numbers person, I am finding all of the data is interesting to read.

I have been playing around looking at the numbers, I wish it was easier to see an overall turnout though.
Just click on the 'more' link for each result, whether it be the national result at the top, the state/territory results or the individual divisions. Each one has the overall response rate, the male/female response rate, and broken down by age group.
justapassenger
Yeah, I had already seen that, but given that this was not a compulsory vote, I would have liked the overall turnout specified right at the front next to the vote result. The breakdown by age and gender is okay to go finding, I think for me the overall turnout could have been made more clear at a glance. In any survey it is important to know what the return rate for the statistics were.

In terms of analysing turnout/response, this is by far the best presentation of the information I've ever come across in Australia. Of course, turnout is not considered to be a factor in normal elections so that would explain why it is given little attention in Australia.

I think the lower response rates for 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 would be a reflection of the cynicism towards politicians at the moment.
justapassenger
The reason these breakdowns are so good (once you get to them) is because with a survey conducted in this way you actually can produce these figures, as you would know from experience in a standard election, anonymous voting means that the only statistic you can accurately get is gross numbers of who voted for who, and who didn't vote according to names left uncrossed, which votes went which way by age is unobtainable.

This survey data will provide me with lots of interesting tutorial type questions for statistics students.


I find the seat of Blaxland to be interesting! Jason Clare has been hounding the Turnbull/government just to hold a Parliamentary vote on this, presumably he is keen to through his support toward allowing SSM, and yet in the numbers we find him sitting in the 'most no' seat... He's publicly told Turnbull to 'go a pair' and have the vote, Jason Clare is going to need a reasonably big pair himself (and a terrific PR team) if he is going to vote his own way according to his previous statements.
It's not just Blaxland, the next eight highest results for the no vote were all ALP divisions.

It looks like large portions of the parliamentary ALP are out of touch with the base, which might point to an election of realignment coming in the not too distant future.

Of the 17 divisions voting no, the parliamentary representation is broken down by:
ALP : 11
Liberal: 3
National: 1
Katter: 1
None (Bennelong, seat vacant pending by-election): 1

Three states did not have a single division vote no: Tasmania (to be expected from the Greens heartland), SA and WA (a surprise from two states that have traditionally been fairly socially conservative).
justapassenger
That is true, my point was that Jason Clare had been particularly vocal in recent days/weeks, and yet his seat ended up being the most conservative in the survey.

I said somewhere pages back in this thread that a sitting member whose seat goes a long way either side of 50% with a decent turnout would be potentially be being rather silly to vote against what their constituent base says. I admit, I was thinking that this might be something for some LNP to struggle with, but I didn't in all honesty think it would be such a problem for the left side.

SA is a pretty conservative place, but SA did popularly elect a 'pink safari suit wearing guy', and (though not through popular vote) decriminalise homosexuality first.
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

In terms of analysing turnout/response, this is by far the best presentation of the information I've ever come across in Australia. Of course, turnout is not considered to be a factor in normal elections so that would explain why it is given little attention in Australia.

I think the lower response rates for 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 would be a reflection of the cynicism towards politicians at the moment.
The reason these breakdowns are so good (once you get to them) is because with a survey conducted in this way you actually can produce these figures, as you would know from experience in a standard election, anonymous voting means that the only statistic you can accurately get is gross numbers of who voted for who, and who didn't vote according to names left uncrossed, which votes went which way by age is unobtainable.
Aaron
I reckon the ABC's presentation of the data is fine. They front-loaded the most important information, and put the details further down. It is certainly better than the ABS website, where you have to do even more digging.

You are correct that a normal election does not produce data on which votes went where - but this was exactly the same for the survey, as the barcodes were only used for the response analysis with the actual ballot being secret. The mechanisms are different (read barcodes vs collate electoral roll data) but the output is the same. Were compulsory voting to be abolished, turnout analysis from elections would become interesting and we would start to see that data being presented.

I said somewhere pages back in this thread that a sitting member whose seat goes a long way either side of 50% with a decent turnout would be potentially be being rather silly to vote against what their constituent base says. I admit, I was thinking that this might be something for some LNP to struggle with, but I didn't in all honesty think it would be such a problem for the left side.
Aaron
There's the problem. The parliamentary ALP is trying to be left-wing party, and has forgotten that their base wants them to be a party with centre-left economic policies and centrist social policies.

If the Liberals stop pandering to the noisy conservative majority and reclaim the centre, there are lots of votes to be won from disaffected ALP supporters. The Liberals need to stop paying attention to Lynton Crosby, compulsory voting means this is not UK politics where an election is won by the side which can marshal the most of their rusted-on supporters to get out of bed on election day.
  michaelgm Chief Train Controller

John Howard gave a press statement recently, heard a news bite.  He was disappointed that details of the proposed bill in relation to protections for freedom o f speech/ religion were released prior to the survey. The electorate is not smart enough to decide, and needs to be treated as mushrooms kept in dark and feed BS.

No wonder you lost the 2007 election and your own seat.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
John Howard gave a press statement recently, heard a news bite.  He was disappointed that details of the proposed bill in relation to protections for freedom o f speech/ religion were released prior to the survey. The electorate is not smart enough to decide, and needs to be treated as mushrooms kept in dark and feed BS.

No wonder you lost the 2007 election and your own seat.
michaelgm
I don't think that's quite what he said, I didn't hear it enough to really quote it, I was not paying enough attention. I don't think he was meaning the public should be kept in the dark, I think he was meaning that a bill to set some protections ought not be being discussed until the bill it is designed to 'protect' has not even happened yet.

He's actually an okay guy on balance, some quirky views on some things, good views on others, he was PM for longer than anyone prior, and based on the current crop of elected, likely to hold that record for quite some time to come, you don't get that by being entirely bad.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

In terms of analysing turnout/response, this is by far the best presentation of the information I've ever come across in Australia. Of course, turnout is not considered to be a factor in normal elections so that would explain why it is given little attention in Australia.

I think the lower response rates for 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 would be a reflection of the cynicism towards politicians at the moment.
The reason these breakdowns are so good (once you get to them) is because with a survey conducted in this way you actually can produce these figures, as you would know from experience in a standard election, anonymous voting means that the only statistic you can accurately get is gross numbers of who voted for who, and who didn't vote according to names left uncrossed, which votes went which way by age is unobtainable.
I reckon the ABC's presentation of the data is fine. They front-loaded the most important information, and put the details further down. It is certainly better than the ABS website, where you have to do even more digging.

You are correct that a normal election does not produce data on which votes went where - but this was exactly the same for the survey, as the barcodes were only used for the response analysis with the actual ballot being secret. The mechanisms are different (read barcodes vs collate electoral roll data) but the output is the same. Were compulsory voting to be abolished, turnout analysis from elections would become interesting and we would start to see that data being presented.

I said somewhere pages back in this thread that a sitting member whose seat goes a long way either side of 50% with a decent turnout would be potentially be being rather silly to vote against what their constituent base says. I admit, I was thinking that this might be something for some LNP to struggle with, but I didn't in all honesty think it would be such a problem for the left side.
There's the problem. The parliamentary ALP is trying to be left-wing party, and has forgotten that their base wants them to be a party with centre-left economic policies and centrist social policies.

If the Liberals stop pandering to the noisy conservative majority and reclaim the centre, there are lots of votes to be won from disaffected ALP supporters. The Liberals need to stop paying attention to Lynton Crosby, compulsory voting means this is not UK politics where an election is won by the side which can marshal the most of their rusted-on supporters to get out of bed on election day.
justapassenger
The ALP have gone all socially radical because they don't want to lose their inner-city Latte seats.  But in the process they're disaffecting the rest of their base.  This is where a party that is both pro-worker and socially conservative (but not dog-whistling against migrants/refugees) could step in and wipeout the ALP in these seats.
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

He's actually an okay guy on balance, some quirky views on some things, good views on others, he was PM for longer than anyone prior, and based on the current crop of elected, likely to hold that record for quite some time to come, you don't get that by being entirely bad.
Aaron
Menzies' second stint as PM was five years longer than Howard's total.

Having Mark Latham as an opponent was certainly the deciding factor in getting Howard his last three years, without which he would have ranked third on the list rather than second.
  LancedDendrite Chief Commissioner

Location: Trapped in a meeting with Rhonda and Karsten
I get the impression that many on the winning side will be out for retribution via anti-discrimination laws and so one to silence any dissent and freedom of conscience...  I hope not though.
Carnot
The Rainbow Militia is being deployed tonight to round-up all dissenting citizens... public glitter-bombings and forced gay wedding cake baking will follow shortly thereafter Laughing
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I get the impression that many on the winning side will be out for retribution via anti-discrimination laws and so one to silence any dissent and freedom of conscience...  I hope not though.
"Carnot"
You think exactly like the Machiavellian No campaigners did. Their campaign was full of red herrings and downright lies.  I cannot for the life of me understand where you "get the impression" except from  your own warped ideas.
  mejhammers1 Assistant Commissioner

@LancedDendrite. Absolutely hilarious. If only to annoy these self righteous bible bashers.

@Carnot Trumped up nonsense with a total disregard of the discrimination to the point of physical abuse that the LGTBI community has faced throughout the years.

Michael
  DJPeters Junior Train Controller

Well now that the great unwashed has spoken it is time to pass the bill in parliament winning the vote is nothing at all and if it is not passed then I think there could be a lot of sitting members that will not be sitting in parliament much longer.

Winning the vote is only half of it getting it passed the idiots that pass for parliamentarians is another thing and possibly a bigger hurdle as well.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
It's interesting how many high profile politicians (of all teams) have jumped on this bandwagon and tried to claim credit for it.

But the credit (or blame) for the result should go to the two obscure backbenchers, Warren Entsch and Dean Smith, who have pushed for this over many years. They've been stopped by their own party, been stopped by the opposition and have almost been thwarted on numerous occasions.

It's these two blokes who should be on the telly, but instead you get Labour, Liberal and Green leaders trying to take credit and the ABC seems to have featured more pics of Penny Wong than everyone else put together. When the truth is that Wong's party tried to stop the survey and gay pollies (like Wong and the Libs Tim Wilson) played a very minor part in getting this through.

Warren Entsch and Dean Smith should be featured in the media, not the self-centred, publicity hungry media tarts who are trying to steal their glory.
  LancedDendrite Chief Commissioner

Location: Trapped in a meeting with Rhonda and Karsten
Dean Smith was heavily featured on the ABC this evening...
  kapow Junior Train Controller

Dean Smith was heavily featured on the ABC this evening...
LancedDendrite
And Warren Entsch was interviewed on 7.30
  Groundrelay Assistant Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
The ALP have gone all socially radical because they don't want to lose their inner-city Latte seats.  But in the process they're disaffecting the rest of their base.  This is where a party that is both pro-worker and socially conservative (but not dog-whistling against migrants/refugees) could step in and wipeout the ALP in these seats.
Carnot
Clutching for that anti-Labor angle. About as relevant as the Greens sweeping into Warringah given the 75% YES result there Surprised

Another social change for fairness that’s a long time in coming and the sun still rose today. Carnot, why is it the same sort of people stand in the way of these things to the bitter end?

Perhaps only 23% of voters actually oppose SSM?

79.5% of voters responded and 61.6% said go ahead. The 20% who didn’t vote presumably aren’t bothered by it, which means 69.4% of voters aren’t opposed to changing the law. Now of those who voted No probably 25% are Abbott’s Chicken Littles and voted to stop all those other terrible things like PC - say around 7.6%, leaving 23%.

Just stirring!
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The ALP have gone all socially radical because they don't want to lose their inner-city Latte seats.  But in the process they're disaffecting the rest of their base.  This is where a party that is both pro-worker and socially conservative (but not dog-whistling against migrants/refugees) could step in and wipeout the ALP in these seats.
Clutching for that anti-Labor angle. About as relevant as the Greens sweeping into Warringah given the 75% YES result there Surprised

Another social change for fairness that’s a long time in coming and the sun still rose today. Carnot, why is it the same sort of people stand in the way of these things to the bitter end?
Groundrelay
Because we want to conserve something so integral to our society/culture that progressives want to tear down.  I acknowledge that our society/culture has largely already done that (to its detriment), but if history is any guide there is often little tolerance for those who believe and assert that marriage should be confined to one man/one woman.

Evidence of that is church leaders in Tasmania being dragged before its anti-discrimination board and so on...
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

Perhaps only 23% of voters actually oppose SSM?

79.5% of voters responded and 61.6% said go ahead. The 20% who didn’t vote presumably aren’t bothered by it, which means 69.4% of voters aren’t opposed to changing the law. Now of those who voted No probably 25% are Abbott’s Chicken Littles and voted to stop all those other terrible things like PC - say around 7.6%, leaving 23%.
Groundrelay
This post is enough to convince me that I should vote Yes on any future national vote regarding corporal punishment for the abuse of statistics.

Mixing up percentages and percentage points deserves a taser to the balls.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Groundrelay... Oh dear... Statistics are really not your thing?
  mejhammers1 Assistant Commissioner

@Carnot So keep on discriminating against the LGTBI community when? There is nothing wrong with voting no but sputing nonsense and half truths to prove a point is totally crap. The question was do you believe that same sex should be legal in Australia. Spouting crap about sex education is nothing bit a red herring. Granted there are a few left wing activists who are particularly aggressive  but the majority of LGTBI are law abiding and just want to be treated in the same way as other sections of the community. WITH RESPECT. And people who do not recognise this are either ignorant, bigoted or both
I care about the young men and women of the LGTBI community who commit suicide because they are abused because of their sexuality. Church leaders, meh.

Michael
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Mind you, you’re in reasonably good company if you can’t do statistics. ABC radio Adelaide’s ‘politics reporter’ asked Antony Green yesterday what the ‘estimated error’ in this result was. Antony’s reply was a mixture of choked on coffee, suppressed laugh, and assertion that the ABS could accurately count, hence there would be no error. This is not a poll of a small population sample extrapolated across a political seat/national result.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

@Carnot So keep on discriminating against the LGTBI community when? There is nothing wrong with voting no but sputing nonsense and half truths to prove a point is totally crap. The question was do you believe that same sex should be legal in Australia. Spouting crap about sex education is nothing bit a red herring. Granted there are a few left wing activists who are particularly aggressive  but the majority of LGTBI are law abiding and just want to be treated in the same way as other sections of the community. WITH RESPECT. And people who do not recognise this are either ignorant, bigoted or both
I care about the young men and women of the LGTBI community who commit suicide because they are abused because of their sexuality. Church leaders, meh.

Michael
mejhammers1
Exactly my point.  A lot of people now don't care if church leaders are thrown under the bus.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Church leaders, meh.
mejhammers1
I think you and I have something we can finally agree on - it's the churches themselves that are out of touch with the community. One of the best things that Gillard ever did was establish a Charities Commission to ensure that not-for-profit organisations complied with government regulations or else they'd have their tax-free status revoked. Stupid old bigot Abbott abolished it as one of his first acts coming to power because he felt it was an attack on the rights of churches to do whatever they liked.

I think the time has passed when organisations like that couldn't or wouldn't be held to account and the community expects better - especially with organisations like the Exclusive Brethern or the Jehovah's Witnesses. If they don't want to comply with the law then that's fine but they can't claim tax-free status - either/or.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Yeah, I am not so sure I am comfortable with so called ‘religious freedoms’ in this either. I am not sure why we allow churches and church leaders to actively persue and maintain prejudices and discriminatory behaviours.

I wonder what would happen if I refused to employ or sacked a religious person (esp Catholic, or Jewish) because they wouldn’t work on Sunday, or a Muslim because I don’t want them kicking off in work time to pray. I don’t think that would end well for my business.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Yeah, I am not so sure I am comfortable with so called ‘religious freedoms’ in this either. I am not sure why we allow churches and church leaders to actively persue and maintain prejudices and discriminatory behaviours.

I wonder what would happen if I refused to employ or sacked a religious person (esp Catholic, or Jewish) because they wouldn’t work on Sunday, or a Muslim because I don’t want them kicking off in work time to pray. I don’t think that would end well for my business.
Aaron
I'm sure King Nebuchadnezzar, Lenin, Stalin, and Chairman Mao would be impressed with those statements....

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