Heavy Rail seems like overkill to me. Yes they are projecting large numbers of people to live and work in the area, but it is to be a densely populated and geographically small area and thus, heavy rail wouldn't be the best fit.
I think the best option would see Hoppers Crossing station rebuilt (with the adjacent level crossing being eliminated in the process, naturally) with a cross platform connection to a light rail service. This light rail could provide direct access to the new precinct, via the Werribee Hospital. While at the other end it could either run into central Werribee, or it could run into Point Cook. This second option would provide Point Cook with a much improved connection to Werribee Line trains.
Driverless or not? Its largely irrelevant to me, I will leave that to the experts.
I agree that a heavy rail loop is probably not a good option. If a reserved corridor is being made available as part of the East Weribee development then there are a whole bunch of other high quality public transport options available:
- A conventional Bus Rapid Transit/busway. Dead simple to build and can be linked in to existing bus routes in the area. The Route 190 Wyndham Vale - Werribee Station shuttle would be a good fit, for instance - it's a short route and it already uses high capacity buses (double-deckers during peak times). The downside is the high operating cost per passenger, although using regular buses and minimal infrastructure (including at-grade road crossings on the busway) keeps the capital costs very low. It's not very sexy, either - but hybrid-electric or fuel cell buses could be used to plump the environmental benefits.
- O-Bahn style guided busway. More expensive than a regular busway, but it allows for higher vehicle speeds and use a narrower corridor. Has similar operational drawbacks. Given that the corridor is intended to be high density and could have lots of stops, I would suggest that it wouldn't be worth the money over a conventional busway unless a deliberately narrow corridor is being used.
- Light rail. This is a step change in capital outlay as it would involve electrification and a dedicated tram fleet with its own servicing depot. You can certainly carry more people per tram than a bus, but your baseline operating costs are higher too. It would like nice though, which I certainly think would rank it highly in the minds of the developers who are also quite plainly not looking to actually spend much, if any, money themselves on the public transport system that they are graciously providing a corridor for.
- Driverless light metro or (cue the Simpsons references) a monorail. Going driverless saves on operational costs and allows for a constantly high frequency service to be provided at all times of day (and night!). The big drawback is the need for complete grade separation as well as the need for a maintenance facility somewhere along the route.
If money was no object, I would advocate building a driverless light metro or monorail. Having a constantly high frequency service through a proposed educational and high density residential precinct with a railway station at each end would allow for essentially seamless transfers to trains. You get all of the advantages of a heavy rail loop line and none of the downsides.
Failing that, a conventional busway would be completely appropriate.
Now as for the 'extension' of Altona Loop services via Point Cook - that would be a self-licking ice-cream cone of a project. The connection between Westona and the Werribee East precinct would be massively more expensive than the rail loop. There's no reserved corridor through Point Cook - the closest you get is the wide median on Boardwalk Boulevard. Property acquisitions would be hideously expensive - and the alternatives are technically difficult. Tunnelling, cut-and-cover or trenching would be impractical given how close to sea level the whole area is. Elevated rail brings its own set of issues (mostly NIMBY-shaped) and would still need property acquistion. Sadly, this is just an example of the lack of foresight that Wyndham Council and the Point Cook developers showed when they drew up the plans for the estate - there's no useful linear reserves or a very wide median along any of the arterial roads in the suburb. Buses are the only solution for that problem, unfortunately.
