It's the economy, stupid!

 
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
As you may know Don, the uni's are not state funded, they are federal funded so the voice into the new Premier's ear is of limited value.
RTT_Rules
Wrong. Universities have been federally funded for decades but it's the states that actually pull the strings and make the decisions - believe it or not our tertiary institutions are legislatively established and governed by the respective state parliaments. That's why there's been whispers about the viability of three universities to the newly elected Premier - the individual with the power to actually do something about it.
Your comments on Engineering is a wa_nk and I told you that before. Your voicing an opinion in a market trough, yes some industries are going/gone, others are growing and this includes the RE Power sector!
RTT_Rules
One of my best friends runs a successful engineering business and he's a chartered/independent engineer with a wealth of experience so he's my source on that. He says it's a chronically over-supplied area with graduates and that very few graduates will ever get the experience they need to be employable - he also says that 457's are hugely over-represented in his industry and that Engineers Australia have been ignoring membership requests to stop approving thousands of new entrants to an already-saturated market.

He lives here and he works in the trade: I think I'll take his view of the industry over yours.
Your reference to say we are not a manufacturing and hence don't need STEM is also BS.
RTT_Rules
Where is the growth in manufacturing jobs? They are less than half the FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) industry now-days. I didn't say we don't need STEM - I said that it's a lie to tell a school-leaver that it's a boom industry - it isn't. And it's never going to be.

The few STEM jobs there are having lower-cost overseas staff in them - even state-of-the-art new Aussie success story Atlassan was under fire last year for on-shoring jobs to Australia and then filling them with 457's. What hope do Aussie graduates have when large Aussie employers have a preference away from them because they've found a more compliant source of workers who'll work for less?

The demand for tertiary graduates has nothing to do with actual industry demand and everything to do with the fact that the government has funded a monster that keeps demanding more and more money and growth for the sake of itself - not because its necessarily in the national interest.

If I had my way I'd go back to a pre-Dawkins system where the universities were much smaller and the TAFE/CAE sector provided teachers and nurses (for example) with a much more hands-on practically-orientated training instead of trying to make absolutely everything an academically-learned vocation. Universities have become way too powerful as yet another lobby group demanding that their government funding be increased; we've made Vice Chancellors very powerful people (many get paid $1 million plus p/a) and its time we evaluated the role of education in our society and what purposes it serves.

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  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Ok, so working in heavy industry with similar production in Australia accounts for nothing? My wife also works for an Australian engineering company here.

If you are a graduate in Australia and cannot find work because of 457's then you either don't have the experience, interview poorly, too high salary expectations or restrictive in location or studied wrong degree at the wrong time. My understanding for some engineering is that the mining slump which followed previous growth left alot on the street and hence graduates with no where to go.  It happens, not first time nor the first industry. The issue now is with govt projects there is a lack of experience in some fields, so they are going OS.

If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!

As I said before, graduates suffer from educational lag. Year 12 kids are looking at what to do, business in civil engineering is booming, so you say I'll study that and maybe add an extra year for GAP or Honors, dual degree etc. 5-6 years later, industry changed, no work. many of the graduates of 1991 to 1994 including me suffered the same thing. Worst thing for graduates that don't find work for a year or more are now competing with fresher graduates.

Agree govt sponsored study should be linked to market conditions some how, but not easy. Full fee students should be separate to this.

The issue with viability for SA's 3 uni's will be based on declining campus numbers and not some wish list by a few individuals. Uni of SA has over 30,000 students, Uni of Adelaide, 20,000, Flinders 25,000. The big uni's in S-M-Brisbane are around 50,000. ANU around 20,000. UoS was 33,000 when I was at Uni. Interesting Uni of Tas in a state with 1/3 the population of SA has 33,000, so why is SA student numbers so low in comparison?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!
RTT_Rules
That's no guarantee of anything; you could end up sleeping in your car in Sydney with no work (or possibly the same outcome overseas). Thing have changed since you did it.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!
That's no guarantee of anything; you could end up sleeping in your car in Sydney with no work (or possibly the same outcome overseas). Thing have changed since you did it.
don_dunstan
Hardly and if that's all they can manage then this is not the reason they don't have a job.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!
That's no guarantee of anything; you could end up sleeping in your car in Sydney with no work (or possibly the same outcome overseas). Thing have changed since you did it.
Hardly and if that's all they can manage then this is not the reason they don't have a job.
RTT_Rules
You need to stop congratulating yourself for your success and recognise that not everyone is as brilliant and resourceful as you are.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!
That's no guarantee of anything; you could end up sleeping in your car in Sydney with no work (or possibly the same outcome overseas). Thing have changed since you did it.
Hardly and if that's all they can manage then this is not the reason they don't have a job.
You need to stop congratulating yourself for your success and recognise that not everyone is as brilliant and resourceful as you are.
don_dunstan
Well Don, that is how the world works. Do you expect the brilliant and resourceful to be held back just so the less so feel better. I am nowhere near as right wing as RTT is but I believe those with better abilities should be rewarded.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

If you are a graduate, want to work in your field and cannot find a job where you are, MOVE and if required buy a plane ticket!
That's no guarantee of anything; you could end up sleeping in your car in Sydney with no work (or possibly the same outcome overseas). Thing have changed since you did it.
Hardly and if that's all they can manage then this is not the reason they don't have a job.
You need to stop congratulating yourself for your success and recognise that not everyone is as brilliant and resourceful as you are.
Well Don, that is how the world works. Do you expect the brilliant and resourceful to be held back just so the less so feel better. I am nowhere near as right wing as RTT is but I believe those with better abilities should be rewarded.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Well Don, that is how the world works. Do you expect the brilliant and resourceful to be held back just so the less so feel better. I am nowhere near as right wing as RTT is but I believe those with better abilities should be rewarded.
nswtrains
It's not about holding back successful people, its about the fact that some people look for any opportunity to rag on others in society as being lazy, not enterprising or somehow deficient because they don't have money or jobs.
  allan Chief Commissioner

From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Well Don, that is how the world works. Do you expect the brilliant and resourceful to be held back just so the less so feel better. I am nowhere near as right wing as RTT is but I believe those with better abilities should be rewarded.
It's not about holding back successful people, its about the fact that some people look for any opportunity to rag on others in society as being lazy, not enterprising or somehow deficient because they don't have money or jobs.
don_dunstan
Right wing? Hmmm, some right wingers who know me in person would say opposite, however I will say some almost card carrying communist party commentators in this group to tend to bring out the more right views of some of us.

Public transport
Regional public transport
Universal health care
Social welfare
etc
Are usually not the traits of the Right wing, more centralist.

Don, you are in suburban Adelaide which is not really the centre of the Australian economy, some would say the opposite. Hence those outside the welfare dependent state may have different views on how the world and Australia works and going.

The Australian economy is not the best its been, but its very far from the worst and yes a balancing act to stop it falling into recession which has been the case since end of mining boom.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Australia as a nation mostly pi$$ed the mining boom income up against the wall. Another poster mentioned the great unwashed to middle class just spent their extra short lived income at Harvey's, alcohol, V8's and overseas holidays. The bulk of the Australian state and fed govt's went on borrowing spree. Little Johnny used it to pay off the govt's debt, start the future fund and balance the budget, but then left the following govts no less income once the mining income slowed. Yes at the time and now, I would have preferred the extra cash be dumped into the Future Fund. I also believe the states should be forced to invest mining royalties in sovereign wealth funds, not consuladated revenue.

In Canada and some other like nations, the answer to the correction was simple, recession. A recession is always a good equaliser that lest people know what really looking for a job is about and how to count your pennies. We now have not had mass unemployment since 1991. Sorry 6% of today is not mass unemployment. Do you remember the job queue's back in the early 90's? 4000 for jobs at Toyota spread word of mouth only.

Yes the local economy has changed, some have left, some have scaled down,  but many have been replaced. If not what the hell are all these migrants working as? Why is that upper middle class now use domestic services etc like never before? Why is the new car industry still booming along? All the signs are there much of the economy has cash or at least credit in their pockets. Just because you don't see a smoke stack doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Yes there are pools of graduates finding it tough, its hardly new, its happened before and it will happen again. The education sector is not directly linked to the economy for numerous reasons, one is time lag. And yes if you cannot find a job locally, look nationally and if still no good look internationally. Those who spent 4 years studying their arses off will not wait for a job to come to them. Most of my cousins kids who are graduating in recent times by and large are finding work, sometimes they do what ever and then keep looking then get their more desired job within 6mths or so.

On the Down side
The power sector price hikes in recent years are a classic sign the states have learnt nothing when it comes to hands privatisation. They screwed up on rail privatisation and they screwed up again on power. However rather than the states who didn't go down this mass power sector privatisation and subsequent closure of coal power stations saying look we are still open to industry and affordable living for our citizens, Qld and Tas (note ALP, but LNP won't have changed a thing) govts are raking in the profits and killing their industry from elevated wholesale power prices driven mostly by Vic and SA. We could and should be rebuilding/moderising our manufacturing industry after the damage caused by explosive wage rises and Aus$, but no, we are screwing them with the world's most expensive power and gas, if you can buy it!

At least for now, the power prices in SA and Qld seem to have turned and at least 10% lower this year than last years record highs. NSW is struggling and Vic is really missing HAzellwood.

Rant over!
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
...Right wing? Hmmm, some right wingers who know me in person would say opposite, however I will say some almost card carrying communist party commentators in this group to tend to bring out the more right views of some of us. ...

Rant over!
RTT_Rules
We won't mention the war Basil but you do side with the Coalition and against Labor almost 100%.

Mind you that's fine as the majority of people support one over the other because of their life experience. It's when rusted on supporters of the 'born to rule' lot particularly in the media, claim to be centralist or "just a little bit to the right" that sh!ts me.

Rant returned!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Commonwealth Games finished at the Gold Coast last night and the closing ceremony was widely panned for not actually including the athletes... total cost to Queensland taxpayers $2 billion.

Queensland is looking increasingly broke - the last two years Queenslanders have been promised "budget action" but instead their deficit continues to expand beyond $80 billion. The $2 billion party they just had certainly won't help.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The Commonwealth Games finished at the Gold Coast last night and the closing ceremony was widely panned for not actually including the athletes... total cost to Queensland taxpayers $2 billion.

Queensland is looking increasingly broke - the last two years Queenslanders have been promised "budget action" but instead their deficit continues to expand beyond $80 billion. The $2 billion party they just had certainly won't help.
don_dunstan
Don
Qld was broke in 2012, its been pretty much keeping its head above water, "just" ever since. The Newman govt cut backs put 10,000 on the street along with mining boom dying added many more and many moved south to the Sydney, hence Qld realestate prices pretty much flatlined while the south boomed.

The economy is however picking up, the mining sector is growing again and the Qld govt is banking $1B a year in power station profits thanks to the shortages in the south as well as other sectors, although thankfully the housing market won't boom and ruin it.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Don,
This may help you understand how the employment market has changed but also not what many think. Need to scroll to the bottom to see the interactive graph.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-16/australia-on-track-1-million-new-jobs-since-2013-where-are-they/9597470
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Don,
This may help you understand how the employment market has changed but also not what many think. Need to scroll to the bottom to see the interactive graph.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-16/australia-on-track-1-million-new-jobs-since-2013-where-are-they/9597470
RTT_Rules
There's plenty of evidence that jobs in the 'new economy' are unstable and low pay and ultimately that's going to undermine the budget and the economy: Economist Bill Mitchell explored the phenomenon further here - "Australia's race to the bottom with low pay part-time jobs":

Far from being a clever nation, Australia is allowing its politicians to reduce our future prospects at a fairly alarming rate.

The conservatives constantly rave on about flexibility and choice when confronted with the reality that 86 per cent of jobs created in net terms over the last 12 months have been part-time.

But they cannot run that line when we understand that an alarming increase in underemployment has accompanied that trend.

My other concern is that the growth in these jobs is being fuelled solely by the implementation of NDIS - a program that I think might ultimately prove un-affordable in its current form. Almost all the jobs in health are government funded or supported - what happens when Medicare or NDIS goes through a severe rationalisation in the future?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Financial Review has reported that a survey conducted by law firm Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF) reveals the majority of large employers intend to give no real wage rises to their employees in the coming year:

The firm’s bargaining survey of about 60 key clients, including large private sector companies across construction, infrastructure, mining, retail and healthcare industries, found that 60 per cent would look at “wage freezes or only nominal wage increases”…

HSF industrial relations partner, Rohan Doyle, said employers were still responding to an environment of flat wages.

“Competitors aren’t lifting wages and there’s no need or desire for others to do so – and you obviously don’t want to be out of step with the market on those things because you’re at a competitive disadvantage”

The labour market is in oversupply, that's the short answer - there are too many people competing for too-few jobs.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
...The labour market is in oversupply, that's the short answer - there are too many people competing for too-few jobs.
don_dunstan
Digging a bit deeper it’s clear that the many of these jobs are not well paid or careers as such. Meanwhile wage growth is much higher in sectors directly or indirectly supported by government. Guess that’s a tick for socialism ????

LNP Governments are lazy pair (sic). That economic management they bang on about is an urban myth  Our economic performance always gets back to the world economy, how much they want and how much they’re willing to pay. Mind you there are big winners when the LNP make fiscal decisions but they're not on struggle street.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Digging a bit deeper it’s clear that the many of these jobs are not well paid or careers as such. Meanwhile wage growth is much higher in sectors directly or indirectly supported by government. Guess that’s a tick for socialism ????
Groundrelay
As I've been saying for ages, they couldn't have made their 'million jobs' target if it hadn't been for Gillard's profligate spending in her last 18 months of her office. The yet-to-be-realised cost of the NDIS will be enormous, it's going to be yet another Labor-initiated financial black hole just like NBN and the VET-FEE-HELP frauds.

Anyway - as you say the jobs being created are not well-paid and they're not very stable - you might be working for an agency and unable to plan or budget because you don't know what hours you are working. It really annoys me that we have now arrived at a position where the Treasurer is calling out for employers to increase wages when everything governments have done since the Hawke/Keating Accord has been about crushing worker wages - and ye shall reap as thou sows!

The budget deficit was rescued this year by increasing royalties from mineral exports but otherwise the deficit was set to get much worse because of declining income tax receipts - the biggest single item on that side of the ledger. But I guess they want an even more 'competitive' workforce in the future... so expect more of the same.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Incidentally The Australian was talking today about the huge numbers of jobs created in things like gardening and home maintenance by NDIS:

The $22 billion taxpayer-funded National Disability Insurance Scheme was responsible for as many as 52,000 of the new jobs created last year, new analysis finds, suggesting quasi public sector employment is a big part of the “jobs boom”.

Up to 13 per cent of the 400,000 jobs created last year — a record increase — involved specialist healthcare and caregiver roles, ­according to analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs. These were in addition to 1950 jobs at the ­National Disability Insurance Agency, which administers the NDIS, including 43 executives and about 320 middle managers...

...More than 50 lawnmowing and garden-maintenance companies have signed up as providers to the $22 billion National Disabil­ity Insurance Scheme, to service clients including the parents of children with autism.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE

My other concern is that the growth in these jobs is being fuelled solely by the implementation of NDIS - a program that I think might ultimately prove un-affordable in its current form. Almost all the jobs in health are government funded or supported - what happens when Medicare or NDIS goes through a severe rationalisation in the future?
don_dunstan
Then we will have the recession many other developed countries had 5 years ago that was used to reset salaries and costs structures much faster than occurred in Australia. Problem when coming off a boom without a recession, the correction needs to be had, so without a recession and mass job losses which quickly drives down salaries, you have to have the 1-2% wages growth at half the inflationary rate for a number of years to achieve the same.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
"the Treasurer is calling out for employers to increase wages..."

Scomo has also been heaping praise on the wage suppressing, oops, GDP promoting benefits of immigration.

The competitive workers of Australia thank you...
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
For every low paid millenial, there's always Afterpay.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/much-more-growth-ahead-for-afterpay

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/afterpay-ceo-on-the-ups-and-downs-of-starting-up-and-why-you-need-to--run-through-walls-.html

http://www.afr.com/business/retail/afterpay-market-update-to-highlight-christmas-growth-20170114-gtrms9

An economy utterly dependent on consumer spending requires nothing less.
locojoe67
Interesting, I've been watching the ascendancy of Afterpay as well, it's going gang-busters with people whose credit cards have maxed out (I guess). Just when you thought Australian households could not get any deeper into debt (we spend a world-beating 200% of our household incomes) along comes something like Afterpay to put people into even more debt. Fantastic.

What could possibly go wrong?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
...The labour market is in oversupply, that's the short answer - there are too many people competing for too-few jobs.
Digging a bit deeper it’s clear that the many of these jobs are not well paid or careers as such. Meanwhile wage growth is much higher in sectors directly or indirectly supported by government. Guess that’s a tick for socialism ????

LNP Governments are lazy pair (sic). That economic management they bang on about is an urban myth  Our economic performance always gets back to the world economy, how much they want and how much they’re willing to pay. Mind you there are big winners when the LNP make fiscal decisions but they're not on struggle street.
Groundrelay
Yes and Socialism has succeeded where? The Iron Lady was a lot of things, many not good, but her famous comment, "the problem with socialism is you eventually run out of other peoples money"  is probably very accurate.

Agree our economy s linked to the world economy however its more than that. Look what Qld did with the mining boom, $80B in the Red!!!! NSW post mining boom was in far better position. Yes the two economies are not 100% identical, but my point being its management of what you have that makes the difference.

Looking back through Australian fed and state politics dating back to the early 80's, the LNP side typically runs a better balance sheet and leave lower debt levels on departure than arrival. There are some notable exceptions, Tas Grey govt for one (drove the state bankrupt), His ALP replace (tried to save the state), and current mob are struggling in fed level, but I believe they are walking the tight rope of balance the budget or recession although their progress is still slow. During the later part of the mining boom, Swan kept failing to deliver a balanced budget, however others have said had he done so, half the country (SE corner) would have entered recession. In hind sight maybe this would have been better?

On your comment, "how much are they willing to pay?", isn't this the problem now? 80% of all income tax is used to pay welfare and >80% of all income tax is paid by the top 50%. Do we tax the top 50% more so they can make those below 50% better off?  Or do we ask the bottom 50% to adjust their lifestyle closer to their actual income levels?

Those at the opposite end of struggle street do well under both sides of govt. Remember Keating lowered higher income tax brackets more than anyone.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting, I've been watching the ascendancy of Afterpay as well, it's going gang-busters with people whose credit cards have maxed out (I guess). Just when you thought Australian households could not get any deeper into debt (we spend a world-beating 200% of our household incomes) along comes something like Afterpay to put people into even more debt. Fantastic.

What could possibly go wrong?
don_dunstan
...a recession.

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