Auscision Models Blog

 
  2LaGrange Train Controller

Good on Auscision for getting the 48/830 Models here. I’m sure they are relieved to receive the container.
Who cares how big production was. Manufacturers never give that precise production numbers information out to the public and would or should they.

I have to laugh at the forensic detectives on here ! Don’t give up your day job fellas !

Can’t see where the different size box theory comes from. Auscision clearly stated their container with 48/830 had arrived. No mention of any other products and all the boxes in photos on their FB page are identical size.

Looking forward to giving mine a test run.

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  c3526blue Deputy Commissioner

Location: in the cuckoos nest
Production Cost/Profit …………….

Assuming my previous assumption is correct then

For Non Sound Portion -
  • Production Cost -  6000 x 100 = $600,000.
  • Sales -  a) say 2000 x 220 = $440,000
                  b) say 1000 x 295 = $295,000
                  c) say 3000 x 335 = $990,000
                             Total Sales = $1,725,000.
  • Profit - $1,752,000 - $600,000 = $1,152,000

For Sound Portion -
  • Production Cost - (say) 3000 x $50 = $150,000
  • Sales - 3000 x $100 = $300,000
  • Profit = $300,000 - $150,000 = $150,000
Plenty of funds to invest in new models ............

Happy investing,

John

PS1;  Yes, I know lots more assumptions.

PS2;  I am not intending any criticism or attempting in any way to run AM down.  I openly admit that I admire all of these companies who invest their hard earned funds and time to provide us mere mortals with all of our RTR toys.  I have not included research/royalty/design/tooling/financing/business/advertising/tax/insurance costs, or any allowance for slow moving stock/warranty replacements/repairs.  This is at best a rough estimate or example of the financial outcome of a production run.


  c3526blue Deputy Commissioner

Location: in the cuckoos nest
Good on Auscision for getting the 48/830 Models here. I’m sure they are relieved to receive the container.
Who cares how big production was. Manufacturers never give that precise production numbers information out to the public and would or should they.

I have to laugh at the forensic detectives on here ! Don’t give up your day job fellas !

Can’t see where the different size box theory comes from. Auscision clearly stated their container with 48/830 had arrived. No mention of any other products and all the boxes in photos on their FB page are identical size.

Looking forward to giving mine a test run.
2LaGrange
No problem 2LaGrange.

Just having a bit of fun trying to make an educated guess of the value of this container load of models.

Happy to provide you with a good laugh.  Wink
  anzac1959 Chief Commissioner

Deliveries ….

Did anyone here join the throng at Powers Rd on Saturday to get their models "hot off the press" ?  Was there a queue of cars blocked back to the M2 exit?  I will wait for good (??) old AusPost to bring mine.

Any first thoughts?

Happy alcoing,

John
c3526blue
Probably only 10 in line at 10am inc 2 who just pushed in by 10.30 about 30ppl
  2LaGrange Train Controller

Thanks for the entertainment Very Happy
I don’t think above figures stack up.

Firstly you haven’t included models sold at wholesale to retailers which would leave little to zero profit in those models but it does get rid of remaining stock.

$100 per loco may well be the production cost but what about the $300 000.00 it probably cost for tooling that has to be spread over the run by adding that expense to the cost per loco ?


3000 models sold after delivery @ $335.00  is way too ambitious in my opinion. Most production runs are under 3000 units in total.

Auscision and other manufacturers have stated many times they rely heavily on pre orders to make projects viable so that means after delivery sales are a small part of the picture.


Sound option was offered as a good will measure due to delays so most likely a break even prospect at best.


I hope there is profit in making models for all the hard work and investment made or why would they bother. But if the returns were anything like theorised on here there would be investors racing to join the model railway manufacturing market for Australia.

No doubt it was a very valuable 40ft shipping container and if it had been on the ship that lost containers of Port Stevens would have made a very expensive artificial reef.
  c3526blue Deputy Commissioner

Location: in the cuckoos nest
Thanks for the entertainment Very Happy
I don’t think above figures stack up.

Firstly you haven’t included models sold at wholesale to retailers which would leave little to zero profit in those models but it does get rid of remaining stock.

$100 per loco may well be the production cost but what about the $300 000.00 it probably cost for tooling that has to be spread over the run by adding that expense to the cost per loco ?


3000 models sold after delivery @ $335.00  is way too ambitious in my opinion. Most production runs are under 3000 units in total.

Auscision and other manufacturers have stated many times they rely heavily on pre orders to make projects viable so that means after delivery sales are a small part of the picture.


Sound option was offered as a good will measure due to delays so most likely a break even prospect at best.


I hope there is profit in making models for all the hard work and investment made or why would they bother. But if the returns were anything like theorised on here there would be investors racing to join the model railway manufacturing market for Australia.

No doubt it was a very valuable 40ft shipping container and if it had been on the ship that lost containers of Port Stevens would have made a very expensive artificial reef.
2LaGrange
Did you read all of my post, including the PS's?  I advised that the numbers did NOT include many other associated costs.  It was not supposed to be a definitive analysis of all supply/business costs and never pretended to be one.  Tooling could well have been $500,000 for such a diverse range of models.  Once all the other/business costs are deducted from the production profit, the overall profit could easily be in the red (an actual loss).

I was detailing the potential production only costs/income.  It is just a theoretical exercise, based on (now dated) advice from one of the other suppliers.  Most of the assumptions, as you point out are probably not realistic.  That is why I put them up, so others could challenge them.  The only amount likely to be close to the correct value is the production cost of $600,000.  This would be the value of a large portion of the container.  Have a look at the Farcebook photo taken inside the container.  There are a large number of boxes significantly larger than the 48/830 boxes.  Would they be the blue loco boxes for everyone to store their 48/830 collections in?  

I hope anyone isn't stupid enough to take my figures at face value and mortgage their family castle with the expectation of making millions.  It just won't happen.  If anything one could make a small fortune.  That is, only provided they started with a big one.  Crying or Very sad

Happy model producing,

John
  2LaGrange Train Controller

Yes I did read your Ps but you said you are doing a rough estimate of financial outcome of production run.

Your basic assumptions in my opinion any simply wrong.

You say you have talked to a manufacturer well so have I and they talk about lots of other costs going into producing a model that you wouldn't think about unless you ask them. Like set up costs in factory, paint masks, packaging, design and drawings... the list goes on.

Any basic production costing for anything has to include materials and tooling to get a very rough unit cost and does not include as you say all the other expenses in a business.

You cant say it cost them $100 per loco for production as a very rough estimate. Its much higher than that.

So lets say 5000 locos with 300K tooling and $100 materials/labour per loco ends up at $160 per loco before all the other costs.

Very rough Minimum cost to Auscision 800k not including sound decoders either. Tooling has to be included as there may never be a re run.

Potential value = Container of 5000 locos at $220 = 1.1 mil for container worst case scenario

Say 4000 pre sold at $220, 500 pre sold at $295 and leaves 500 at $335 of which some go wholesale to shops.

That ends up at just under 1.2 mil potential value in container.

If you look at FB post photo inside container they are all the same box just more layers on back pallets. Also look at photo of pallets outside adjacent to container to see different heights,same boxes just more layers.
  trainguy84 Junior Train Controller

Just adding my 2c worth

They do appear to be different boxes towards the front. Looking at the strapping helps to orientate the boxes, and the front ones are wider than the rear ones (on RHS) and they are also slightly deeper (on LHS)

That could also explain why they didnt just take a photo from the front, and also the number of pallets sitting outside would only fill half the container up.

They have done photos in the past which have hidden meanings. I remember a few years ago they had three different photos posted over a few days of a S a C and a T  and their unannounced model/brand was SCT.
  meh Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney
Did anybody know about these:



https://www.australianmodeller.com.au/collections/locomotives/products/copy-of-ugl-c44aci-locomotive-undecorated-c44-36

CF4407 and CF4408 in Freightliner Livery.
  FirstStopCentral Chief Train Controller

Did anybody know about these:



https://www.australianmodeller.com.au/collections/locomotives/products/copy-of-ugl-c44aci-locomotive-undecorated-c44-36

CF4407 and CF4408 in Freightliner Livery.
meh
Yes, had mine for nearly 12 months...

Paul
  Poath Junction Chief Commissioner

Location: In front of a computer most of the time.
There were not many Freightliner livery models produced, and right now there's only 11 of each livery left.
  Poath Junction Chief Commissioner

Location: In front of a computer most of the time.
snip
Can’t see where the different size box theory comes from. Auscision clearly stated their container with 48/830 had arrived. No mention of any other products and all the boxes in photos on their FB page are identical size.
2LaGrange
The big May update on facebook noted other products were due to arrive around the same time as the 48's (two types of containers and the vehicles). Reefer container order forms have been removed from the orders page, and that only happens when the models are landed.
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
Whats next Exhibition? Perhaps a surprise release Very Happy
Cheers
Rod
  trainguy84 Junior Train Controller

Those two Freightliner C44's sold out quick.

I wonder why they weren't advertised??
  gw0071 Deputy Commissioner

I believe that it was a measure to aid the struggling eBay aftermarketplace
  Shazam75 Chief Commissioner

I hope they come out with the 3rd Series Victorian Railways X Class.
  NSWGRules Locomotive Fireman

Does anyone have feedback on the running and sound of their new 48?
  Jack Le Lievre Chief Train Controller

Location: Moolap Station, Vic
I hope they come out with the 3rd Series Victorian Railways X Class.
Shazam75
I am hearing that the XR/VL/BRM are being found a production slot.
  Poath Junction Chief Commissioner

Location: In front of a computer most of the time.
11 of the 36 livery/variations of 48 class have already sold out! http://www.auscisionmodels.com.au/48%20Class%20Locomotive.htm . well maybe not, Australian Modeller shows the sold outs are available.
  trainguy84 Junior Train Controller

HI

Well they did say that a number of order forms would be released once the 48/830s are packed and dispatched.
  trainguy84 Junior Train Controller

HI

Looks like they are still available from Australian Modeller though.
  trainguy84 Junior Train Controller

Aren't the XR/VL/BRM based on a similar under carriage?
  Jack Le Lievre Chief Train Controller

Location: Moolap Station, Vic
Aren't the XR/VL/BRM based on a similar under carriage?
trainguy84
Yarp and the VLs have run in every state apart from Tassie. The BRMs have been in Vic and run in N.S.W., and the XRs have run in both Vic and N.S.W., and if they were really keen they could do the XRB which have run in N.S.W., S.A. & Vic.
  meh Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney
The 48s available from Australian Modeller are also available with sound; those sold out on Auscisions site are only available as sound versions from AM.
  Booly Junior Train Controller

My 3 48's arrived this morning , when i get home i'll plonk one next to one of my Traino 48's and see "which one has the correct looking nose on it " after it was so hotly debated on the Traino 48 thread !!!!!!!
By the way the Auscision 48's look great !

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