Is Bill Shorten in leadership trouble?

 
  michaelgm Assistant Commissioner

Aaron, sounds like you're enjoying your trip, and good luck to you.
Nothing worse than an attractive person (female for me) with shocking teeth.
Never look a gift horse they say, well I'll be taking a look.  
This has gone a long way from Billy's leadership!!!

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  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Just as I thought...you posed a rhetorical question.

M.
We don't have endless supplies of money for these things - I've just finished having the same argument with RTT_Rules about the very same thing in relation to defence. Can you imagine how expensive it would be to provide universal dental care? Has it even been costed by the ALP or are they just spending money from the future that doesn't exist yet (as usual)? The money to fund these programs is real, Mike, it isn't just hovering in the ether waiting to be spend - it needs to either come from consolidated revenue or be borrowed.

At some stage the Commonwealth will be considered a poor financial risk and they won't be able to borrow money to fund recurring expenditure any longer - what happens then? Print more money? Sell Crown Land? Cut pensions, wages of public servants etc?
don_dunstan
You didn't Finish having an argument, you waffled on making technically incorrect comments then and wouldn't answer what I asked a few times and only interested in throwing your state under the economic bus because a prosperous SA would be against your black hat position.

Back to topic
Every Australian kid should be entitled a pair a glasses if they need them and a decent set of teeth and for those who parents cannot afford it the existing Combined budget can be used to fund this by removing the "free" out of the health system.

Aaron,
Free Medical system doesn't mean people actually use it or look after their teeth to start with. The obesity plague is after-all driven by high sugar content diet.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
You didn't Finish having an argument, you waffled on making technically incorrect comments then and wouldn't answer what I asked a few times and only interested in throwing your state under the economic bus because a prosperous SA would be against your black hat position.
RTT_Rules
Shane, if there was a prize for making broad sweeping generalisations that don't match the facts then you'd be getting the gold medal.

As per the white paper I referenced sub project is going to cost $40 billion more than initially estimated because of the on-shore build - you haven't presented any evidence to the contrary.

How is it throwing my state under a bus to ask that Commonwealth money gets spent in a responsible manner? There's so much money being wasted you could probably give every South Australian a million dollars and you'd still have money to build the subs off-shore. And you're the one who constantly complains about Commonwealth money being wasted but for some reason on this issue alone you're prepared to waste tens of billions of resources.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

You didn't Finish having an argument, you waffled on making technically incorrect comments then and wouldn't answer what I asked a few times and only interested in throwing your state under the economic bus because a prosperous SA would be against your black hat position.
Shane, if there was a prize for making broad sweeping generalisations that don't match the facts then you'd be getting the gold medal.

As per the white paper I referenced sub project is going to cost $40 billion more than initially estimated because of the on-shore build - you haven't presented any evidence to the contrary.

How is it throwing my state under a bus to ask that Commonwealth money gets spent in a responsible manner? There's so much money being wasted you could probably give every South Australian a million dollars and you'd still have money to build the subs off-shore. And you're the one who constantly complains about Commonwealth money being wasted but for some reason on this issue alone you're prepared to waste tens of billions of resources.
don_dunstan
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
If you think collectivised dental care is a good thing, go ask a collection of Poms to smile at you. England via the NHS has produced some of the worst teeth in the delevoped world, likely worse than much of the developing world too.
But they also don't have fluoridation of their water, do they?
don_dunstan

Changing their diet would work better.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Carnot
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
You didn't Finish having an argument, you waffled on making technically incorrect comments then and wouldn't answer what I asked a few times and only interested in throwing your state under the economic bus because a prosperous SA would be against your black hat position.
Shane, if there was a prize for making broad sweeping generalisations that don't match the facts then you'd be getting the gold medal.

As per the white paper I referenced sub project is going to cost $40 billion more than initially estimated because of the on-shore build - you haven't presented any evidence to the contrary.

How is it throwing my state under a bus to ask that Commonwealth money gets spent in a responsible manner? There's so much money being wasted you could probably give every South Australian a million dollars and you'd still have money to build the subs off-shore. And you're the one who constantly complains about Commonwealth money being wasted but for some reason on this issue alone you're prepared to waste tens of billions of resources.
don_dunstan
Oh come on Don, you posted links that compare the original projected capital cost with the longterm lifecyle cost over as if the author as surprised the subs need upkeep. Also remember you quoted the boats were custom models of a nuclear variety yet the designer has both nuclear and diesel listed on their model list and the Canak's will likely buy the same as us by looks of things.

One minute your complaining about them being built on shore, next min its cost, next min its lifecycle cost. You switch back and forwards non stop. Its hard to follow what you actual argument is. Please keep your arguments on point and it will be much easier.

Now its $40B extra build on shore, if your cost estimate keeps rising the tradesman working on the project will be highest paid people in the world.

I cannot find your white paper link and asked you before to repost.

Fact the Commonwealth buying new Sub's. Is this the right thing, the right sub, the right number, I have no idea, but if they are going buy them, build the bastards in SA. Whoops sorry you don't give a crap about the SA economy, so build them on the east coast. Tassie was a previous contender.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
don_dunstan
Your Million per employee was based on the full lifecycle cost and wasn't anywhere connected to reality. It also didn't factor in profit margin, IP, war equipment, mobilisation, contingency......
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
don_dunstan
Its nearly $1300/y/adult

https://responsiblegambling.vic.gov.au/about-us/news-and-media/latest-edition-australian-gambling-statistics/
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
You just can't deal with the fact that I object to the LNP's very expensive Work-for-the-Dole (WfD) for an entire city. We are heading into that US model of states competing for the crumbs of defence work - it's pathetic. If the Commonwealth really had a vision for this nation they'd have something beyond feeble low-pay service industries and "we've got to compete with Asia". I say stuff Asia, we can go with the USA hegemony and have wealth enough for all our own people. Let's resurrect the tariff barriers and become wealthy again like we were in the Menzies era when everyone could afford a house in the metro area and unemployment was non-existent.

And burn the bloody coal.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
Its nearly $1300/y/adult

https://responsiblegambling.vic.gov.au/about-us/news-and-media/latest-edition-australian-gambling-statistics/
RTT_Rules
Some dolt(s) are spending my share, that's for sure.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
Your Million per employee was based on the full lifecycle cost and wasn't anywhere connected to reality. It also didn't factor in profit margin, IP, war equipment, mobilisation, contingency......
RTT_Rules
It's still way too expensive, off-shore the things that we can't really do to a trusted ally like the good ole' US of A and on-shore the things that we need to keep our populace relatively well-off like... ohhh, I don't know. A CAR INDUSTRY?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
Your Million per employee was based on the full lifecycle cost and wasn't anywhere connected to reality. It also didn't factor in profit margin, IP, war equipment, mobilisation, contingency......
It's still way too expensive, off-shore the things that we can't really do to a trusted ally like the good ole' US of A and on-shore the things that we need to keep our populace relatively well-off like... ohhh, I don't know. A CAR INDUSTRY?
don_dunstan
Q, does the US even make such sub's?

There are only a few Sub making exporter in the world, so choices are limited and even more so when you cross of technology, political and other factors.

Again you have no idea how much extra, if any it will cost to off-shore the construction, a 20-35 yr project. Nothing wrong with setting up an industry that will support a generation of workers, bloody madness not to.

The car industry died in part because of political issues off-shore, basically your "good ole' US of A" GM CEO, throwing Holden workers under a bus and Ford not giving a $hit and looking for an excuse to leave for nearly a decade. Mitsubishi wasting taxpayers money on a product not worthy for market. Toyota to its credit was only one giving it a real go. The Aussie consumer did the rest of the damage by not wanting the local products.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
You just can't deal with the fact that I object to the LNP's very expensive Work-for-the-Dole (WfD) for an entire city. We are heading into that US model of states competing for the crumbs of defence work - it's pathetic. If the Commonwealth really had a vision for this nation they'd have something beyond feeble low-pay service industries and "we've got to compete with Asia". I say stuff Asia, we can go with the USA hegemony and have wealth enough for all our own people. Let's resurrect the tariff barriers and become wealthy again like we were in the Menzies era when everyone could afford a house in the metro area and unemployment was non-existent.

And burn the bloody coal.
don_dunstan
The Australian Defense Budget is one of the larger parts of the Australian govt budget that is not linked to welfare. The defense budget doesn't vary a lot and is expanding with the growing Australian economy and federal govt spending, ie its getting bigger every year.

Other states target other aspects of the fed govt budget , so you would be a complete fool and an completely irresponsible and stupid state leader to not want to target some of this reliable and consistent cash flow. Unlike private sector industries which comes and goes, Defense spending is almost locked in reliable for next 100 years unless the world can find some Utopian peace and considering what the likes of China etc are doing, its likely to increase ahead of inflation and economic growth of the fed govt budget.

The boat construction programs will also underwrite much of the remaining state industrial sector, think about each sub needs 4000t of steel, then you have the service sector supporting all those direct jobs. The normal model used for mining and other is 3-4 x trickle down. So 1000 jobs construction 3000-4000 jobs will appear in other sectors or at least not fold.

Even if the likes of the car industry was to return, why would it go to Adelaide? Remote from the customer base and supplier, limited shipping etc. the likes of Bathurst would have a stronger chance than Adelaide.

Australian car workers would never have worked for the same wages as the USA car workers, many of whom took significant pay cuts to enable the US industry to restructure.
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
As Professor Higgins said, "I'm a most forgiving man . . . "  but, RTT;  "defense" instead of "defence" is unforgivable. We're not the 51st state yet.
  Dangersdan707 Deputy Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
I pulled my calculator out.  $40 Billion divided by the population of South Oz (1.677 mill) = $23,852 for every man, women, and child.

Isn't that approximately what they blow on the pokies each year?
Yes - a million was the figure I came up with per job on the submarine project - but still. Twenty three grand per resident is pretty good too - here you go, set up your own enterprise.

Can't recall what the figure in Aussie gambling losses per adult - and I also can't look it up as I'm on a child-protected computer at the moment and the damn thing won't let me see anything related to gambling without the password! But I'm sure that someone else is spending my gambling losses for me - my only form of gambling is the occasional fantasy of a lotto ticket but otherwise nothing.
Your Million per employee was based on the full lifecycle cost and wasn't anywhere connected to reality. It also didn't factor in profit margin, IP, war equipment, mobilisation, contingency......
It's still way too expensive, off-shore the things that we can't really do to a trusted ally like the good ole' US of A and on-shore the things that we need to keep our populace relatively well-off like... ohhh, I don't know. A CAR INDUSTRY?
don_dunstan
Neo-liberal free-market 'reforms' a modernised version of a more concentrated wealth pyramid... One thing to remember though  is that the united states originally spearheaded Neo liberalism worldwide during the Reagan Era and the world bank helped to spread it further afield
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Q, does the US even make such sub's?

There are only a few Sub making exporter in the world, so choices are limited and even more so when you cross of technology, political and other factors.

Again you have no idea how much extra, if any it will cost to off-shore the construction, a 20-35 yr project. Nothing wrong with setting up an industry that will support a generation of workers, bloody madness not to.
RTT_Rules
But then you go on to argue the exact opposite for a mass-consumption product that would employ infinitely more people.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Australian Defense Budget is one of the larger parts of the Australian govt budget that is not linked to welfare. The defense budget doesn't vary a lot and is expanding with the growing Australian economy and federal govt spending, ie its getting bigger every year.

Other states target other aspects of the fed govt budget , so you would be a complete fool and an completely irresponsible and stupid state leader to not want to target some of this reliable and consistent cash flow. Unlike private sector industries which comes and goes, Defense spending is almost locked in reliable for next 100 years unless the world can find some Utopian peace and considering what the likes of China etc are doing, its likely to increase ahead of inflation and economic growth of the fed govt budget.

The boat construction programs will also underwrite much of the remaining state industrial sector, think about each sub needs 4000t of steel, then you have the service sector supporting all those direct jobs. The normal model used for mining and other is 3-4 x trickle down. So 1000 jobs construction 3000-4000 jobs will appear in other sectors or at least not fold.

Even if the likes of the car industry was to return, why would it go to Adelaide? Remote from the customer base and supplier, limited shipping etc. the likes of Bathurst would have a stronger chance than Adelaide.

Australian car workers would never have worked for the same wages as the USA car workers, many of whom took significant pay cuts to enable the US industry to restructure.
RTT_Rules
Again, a consumer-based industry in a hugely growing nation like Australia is a good idea; it will generate more jobs of a better quality which is what Australia needs right now rather than low quality service industry jobs. We need a contingency plan here - there's uncertainty going into the middle 21st century; I'm not talking about a military contingency plan - I'm talking about an economic one.

Look Shane, you know me well enough to know where I'm coming from with this. If the LNP really believed in creating jobs with money they would have gone for an industry that could have set us up in case of a trade war - but no. They're too bloody-minded and would rather commit a future government to a $40 billion overspend on a pork barrel for some lucky state - my present home was given the scraps off the table after the closure of the car industry. That's all - it could have easily gone to WA as they also need something like this at the moment.
  michaelgm Assistant Commissioner

Don, the only obstacle preventing subs or similar going to WA, is Christopher Pyne.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Again, a consumer-based industry in a hugely growing nation like Australia is a good idea; it will generate more jobs of a better quality which is what Australia needs right now rather than low quality service industry jobs. We need a contingency plan here - there's uncertainty going into the middle 21st century; I'm not talking about a military contingency plan - I'm talking about an economic one.

Look Shane, you know me well enough to know where I'm coming from with this. If the LNP really believed in creating jobs with money they would have gone for an industry that could have set us up in case of a trade war - but no. They're too bloody-minded and would rather commit a future government to a $40 billion overspend on a pork barrel for some lucky state - my present home was given the scraps off the table after the closure of the car industry. That's all - it could have easily gone to WA as they also need something like this at the moment.
don_dunstan
With respect Don, I ask you again, what jobs, what industry?

You keep talking about the car industry. I have a few mates who lost their jobs at Holdens when it closed. I thought it was one of the worst things that an Australian government ever did to let that industry go but you need to remember that it too was a heavily subsidized and even with all the cash on offer the companies weren't interested.

After Nissan flew the coup Mitsubishi put an end to their token effort at Tonsley. Ford was always going to be the next to fold, clearly not interested in manufacturing in Aus, the only ones who got the switch to SUVs right with the Territory, they were offered mega bucks by the Victorian Government if they built a diesel version but said no thanks. Sales faltered and they made no effort to arrest the slide. Ford still employs somewhere around 1600 people last time I checked in their Product Developmont business in Victoria, many of them high skilled jobs in engineering and design.

(this bit is my opinion based on what I have been told by ex employees) GM sent Deveroux out from Detroit to do a hatchet job on Holden based on the board in the USA not wanting to deal with a pesky little operation like Holden anymore. Pretty much the minute he succeeded he was parachuted into a plum job with GM China. The Abbott government gave him the get out that he was looking for but the writing was already on the wall for the staff. It takes around 4 years to engineer a car from go to showroom as Holden did (as opposed to Toyota who just tweaked an OS design). An engineer mate of mine told me 2 years before the announcement that they had not been given any new models to start work on, they were doing piecemeal work for other GM divisions mainly China. They new there would not be another Commodore designed and built in Aus after the VF. I saw grown men cry the day the last Commodore rolled off the line at Elizabeth, Australia was one of few countries in the world that could engineer a car from conception to completion and the guys at Holden knew that it was gone forever.

As soon as Holden's announced they were out Toyota followed very quickly sighting supply chain problems that would have been caused by being the only Aus maker of cars. Toyota were pretty much just building an Australian market tweaked version of an overseas model employing nowhere near the number of people in R&D that Ford or Holdens did.

Not one of them had any interest in making cars in Australia. The market is too small, the currency too volatile to make any decent export market and the politics back at home too fraught (Commodore was supposed to be exported to the US as a cop car, the deal was done with the CHP AFAIK and when Killerfornia signs on most other police forces follow, US management at GM stepped in and said no way)

The free trade deal with Thailand in 2005 was a big killer, Japanese producers like Toyota switched production of Hilux etc. to Thailand and all of a sudden it is duty free and cheap enough to get in under the Luxury car tax. Goodbye Holden Ute sales. And when Holden and Toyota tried to export to Thailand (they drive on the same side of the road as us so simples) they found out that there was a 25% tarriff on large cars still in place despite the FTA. So we lose again.

Around 2016/17 Australia then signs a series of FTAs with China, Korea, Japan etc and opens up BIG new markets for our agricultural produce. No coincidence that these are all big producers of cars.

This is the future of Australia, exporting minerals and agg products and importing manufactured goods that we cannot produce competitively without high tarriff barriers. Any attempt to subsidize industries like Automotive will fall foul of the FT agreements and the Aus government knows that our produce is worth way more than a car industry. The government did not kill off the car industry, they may have hastened it's demise but it was already dead in the water.

One of the areas pretty much beyond the remit of an FTA is defence industry. And like it or not I for one would rather we had a viable defence industry if the worst happens and we go to war. The Chinese make our defence uniforms FFS.

BG
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Brenton; it was dead from Hawke/Keating and the Button report early on; then finally condemned by Howard with the (so-called) Thai FTA; up until the FTA with Thailand Ford Australia were seriously considering building a diesel engine plant in Oz which would have been a serious game-changer - Howard sealed the fate of the car industry there and then.

And you are right, there's no sense in commiserating; the Labor and AND the LNP are both equally responsible for the death of full-time good quality jobs for the working class in Australia; they'll be sorry when the tax base they paid is completely gone too.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Neo-liberal free-market 'reforms' a modernised version of a more concentrated wealth pyramid... One thing to remember though  is that the united states originally spearheaded Neo liberalism worldwide during the Reagan Era and the world bank helped to spread it further afield
Dangersdan707
Socialise the losses of the most profitable businesses in the world in an event that their debt-based model of ever-increasing debt fails - it's the ultimate in communist behavior to socialise the losses of the very greedy to the rest of us.
  Dangersdan707 Deputy Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Neo-liberal free-market 'reforms' a modernised version of a more concentrated wealth pyramid... One thing to remember though  is that the united states originally spearheaded Neo liberalism worldwide during the Reagan Era and the world bank helped to spread it further afield
Socialise the losses of the most profitable businesses in the world in an event that their debt-based model of ever-increasing debt fails - it's the ultimate in communist behavior to socialise the losses of the very greedy to the rest of us.
don_dunstan
And I am apparently a communist.
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
And I am apparently a communist.
Dangersdan707
Don't worry about it. If you interjected at one of Menzies' campaign speeches you were automatically labelled a Commo by the great man himself. Consider yourself in good company.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Hi Don,
I'm not sure what you actually want from the Sub contract apart from wanting to send the equivalent of the annual Defence budget going off-shore, but the fact is the money will be spent on Defence and Defence only. You could argue if it should be a sub, or how many sub's, but it will be on something with a gun only.

As for alt job creation projects like the car industry, this is separate issue and unaffected by the Defence projects which are part of the defence budget.

The Defence projects of building both Frigates and Sub's in Australia will provide solid quality jobs for a generation. Should we actually go to war, then we have the skills and infrastructure to support a war without having to send the sub's or Frigates on a 10,000 journey to get repaired or even normal mid life upgrades. Seriously there is a much stronger argument to establish a home grown Defence industry than a failed Car industry. With your favorite country China expanding its military might and your previous comments on what our PM is or isn't doing, you basically cannot do anything unless you have a gun or a bigger gun.

Australia will never be able to take on China, but it must do its part to keep the US interested in supporting us, likewise NZ. Trump's recent comments to his NATO counterparts to spend up or be cut loose is no different to us. Also note other countries are towing the line as well.

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