Scott Morrison's imploding act

 

Pinned post created by dthead

Posted 11 months ago

  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

The crossbenchers won't hold that much of a balance of power. If Kerryn Phelps wins there will be six of them in the House of Representatives. A LNP minority government would only require the support of one, probably Phelps or Cathy McGowan. If Labor vote with the LNP then the rest is academic.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Barnaby Joyce is rattling the cage wanting to be in the big chair of the National Party again - from The Australian:
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has sounded a warning to potential rivals after Barnaby Joyce signalled he was open to being drafted back to the Nationals leadership before the next election.

Renewed focus on a comeback by Mr Joyce comes as the ­Nationals face internal turmoil, disagreement over key policy issues — including a new agricultural visa — and growing concern that the party must compete more strongly with the Liberals to ­uphold its key interests in the ­regions.

Mr McCormack warned against leadership instability, ­saying rural communities wanted “secure and stable” government that listened to their needs. “That’s what my leadership is ­providing,” he told The Australian.

Barnaby, you made your personal life the issue - that's why you had to go. And I think there's also some doubt as to whether or not your own electorate will want to vote for you again given you so comprehensively lied to them last time. And all this three days out from a by-election that the LNP desperately needs to win - who the hell cares who is in charge of the Nats anyway, they're not going to be in government after the next general election. Their own incompetence has probably put Labor into office for at least two terms and yet they want to bicker about who is in charge of the Country Party? Disgraceful.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Barnaby Joyce is rattling the cage wanting to be in the big chair of the National Party again - from The Australian:
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has sounded a warning to potential rivals after Barnaby Joyce signalled he was open to being drafted back to the Nationals leadership before the next election.

Renewed focus on a comeback by Mr Joyce comes as the ­Nationals face internal turmoil, disagreement over key policy issues — including a new agricultural visa — and growing concern that the party must compete more strongly with the Liberals to ­uphold its key interests in the ­regions.

Mr McCormack warned against leadership instability, ­saying rural communities wanted “secure and stable” government that listened to their needs. “That’s what my leadership is ­providing,” he told The Australian.

Barnaby, you made your personal life the issue - that's why you had to go. And I think there's also some doubt as to whether or not your own electorate will want to vote for you again given you so comprehensively lied to them last time. And all this three days out from a by-election that the LNP desperately needs to win - who the hell cares who is in charge of the Nats anyway, they're not going to be in government after the next general election. Their own incompetence has probably put Labor into office for at least two terms and yet they want to bicker about who is in charge of the Country Party? Disgraceful.
don_dunstan
Your right on the money with this one Don. I just shook my head in disbelief when I read of these shenanigans in the press. The agrarian socialists are just driving themselves deeper into irrelevancy.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I couldn't help but noticing how desperate the Liberals have become to win Wentworth on Saturday, they trotted out Johnny Howard today, in a bid to sway undecided voters, for a seat which is held by such a big margin by the Libs, the need to bring back a former PM into the race, smacks of worry, and desperation!

Kind Regards
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Liberals are on track to lose the seat of Wentworth for the first time - ever. Fairfax says that nothing they've done has helped their case:

Senior NSW Liberals say it will take a “miracle” to win the Wentworth byelection, labelling a damaging email smearing independent Dr Kerryn Phelps as “the final nail” in the campaign.

Sources close to the campaign said the email that falsely claimed Dr Phelps had HIV and was pulling out of the race was “hugely damaging”, and had cruelled their chances of holding the seat.

Liberal candidate Dave Sharma called the email “vile” and supported Dr Phelps’ demands for its origin to be investigated by the Australian Electoral Commission.

It'll be interesting to see how long they last as a minority government; personally I'm wondering if we'll have another election before Xmas or after.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Incidentally Alex Turnbull should keep his nose out of Aussie politics. Lecturing Australians on how they should vote even though he's Havard educated and has been living in Singapore as a fund manager for years? Seems like it's exactly the thing that got us into this mess to begin with - listening to the self-appointed elites like the Turnbulls who think they know what's best for us even though they're hardly connected to Australian people's ordinary experience at all. Malcolm himself hasn't even been back since he got sacked - trying to destabilise the Liberal Party from his luxurious Manhattan apartment. Nothing spells "out of touch elites" more than that... what about the well-being of the Australian people?

Nup, doesn't give a damn about that - just wants to get revenge on the party that stupidly made him Prime Minister. Selfish, petty man.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Curiously Malcolm hasn't updated his personal website since he stopped being PM: https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/ In fact he talks on that website about how he's still delivering for the Australian people...
  petan Chief Commissioner

Location: Waiting to see a zebra using a zebra crossing!
Seems like it's exactly the thing that got us into this mess to begin with - listening to the self-appointed elites like the Turnbulls who think they know what's best for us even though they're hardly connected to Australian people's ordinary experience at all.
don_dunstan

Mmmm, Don, did you see the irony of your statement about Turnball??????

Just swap the very rich elite USA Trump for Turnball and you get the obvious irony so it will read as follows; Seems like it's exactly the thing that got the USA into their mess to begin with - listening to the self-appointed elites like the (Trump) Turnbulls who think they know what's best for people even though they're hardly connected to people's ordinary experience at all
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Trump has actually been winning skeptical voters over his China policy as discussed here. And Trump's populism is an altogether different beast from the kind of popularity that Malcolm (and indeed Scott Morrison) have been trying to cultivate.
  M636C Minister for Railways

Nup, doesn't give a damn about that - just wants to get revenge on the party that stupidly made him Prime Minister. Selfish, petty man
I'm told Turnbull  said he would write a letter supporting the current Liberal candidate in Wentworth as long as it addressed his departure as Prime Minister. Strangely the party didn't take him up on that....

They wanted him to go because they thought they would lose with him as leader.
Now it looks like they will do even worse without him.
Exactly what part of that deserves sympathy from Turnbull (or anyone else)
They've made their bed and should lie in it...

Peter
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
It'll be interesting to see how long they last as a minority government; personally I'm wondering if we'll have another election before Xmas or after.
don_dunstan"

The timing of the next election is complicated by fixed date elections set for the two largest states.
The Victorian state election is set for Saturday November 24, 2018. It is possible to change the date if there is overlap with the federal campaign, but it would create significant costs for the Victorian Electoral Commission and logistical difficulties for the Australian Electoral Commission. The Victorian election's timing has basically ruled out 2018 for the Feds.
The New South Wales state election is set for Saturday March 23, 2019. It is much more difficult for the NSW election date to be moved. It can only be moved if the date of the federal election is announced before the NSW Legislative Assembly expires on 1 March 2018, allowing the NSW election to be pushed back into April. As in Victoria, this would be at considerable cost to the NSW Electoral Commission and create logistical difficulties for the Australian Electoral Commission.
In 2019, Good Friday is on April 19 with public and school holidays running through to Anzac Day on April 25. That largely rules out April 2019 as election month unless the Federal Government is prepared to overlap its campaign with the NSW election. A May 2019 federal election would have the Easter/Anzac week in the middle of the campaign.
A February 2019 election would be possible if the Government were prepared to announce an election in the normally somnolent summer holiday period. The last government leader to announce an election during the summer holidays was Queensland premier Campbell Newman in 2015, and that election turned out very badly for the government.
Governments avoid election dates that fall in school holidays, mainly for logistical reasons to do with staffing polling places. States will have school holidays in different weeks from late September though to early October 2018, a period that also coincides with football finals. The summer holidays are from mid-December through to the end of January 2019, with Easter/Anzac school holidays in mid-April 2019.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I'm told Turnbull  said he would write a letter supporting the current Liberal candidate in Wentworth as long as it addressed his departure as Prime Minister. Strangely the party didn't take him up on that....

They wanted him to go because they thought they would lose with him as leader.
Now it looks like they will do even worse without him.
Exactly what part of that deserves sympathy from Turnbull (or anyone else)
They've made their bed and should lie in it...

Peter
M636C
He coveted that job for ages and then couldn't unite the party (let alone the nation) behind his "agenda" if there ever was one. The Energy Guarantee flip-flopping was the last straw; he proved he was indecisive and vacillating as a leader and wasn't prepared to make hard decisions at the risk of p*ssing people off. Look at Trump by contrast, doesn't give a damn what his critics think.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

I'm told Turnbull  said he would write a letter supporting the current Liberal candidate in Wentworth as long as it addressed his departure as Prime Minister. Strangely the party didn't take him up on that....

They wanted him to go because they thought they would lose with him as leader.
Now it looks like they will do even worse without him.
Exactly what part of that deserves sympathy from Turnbull (or anyone else)
They've made their bed and should lie in it...

Peter
He coveted that job for ages and then couldn't unite the party (let alone the nation) behind his "agenda" if there ever was one. The Energy Guarantee flip-flopping was the last straw; he proved he was indecisive and vacillating as a leader and wasn't prepared to make hard decisions at the risk of p*ssing people off. Look at Trump by contrast, doesn't give a damn what his critics think.
don_dunstan
US presidents are far harder to get rid of in between presidential elections unlike our PM where the PM can be voted out by the party at the drop of a hat. Also our PM's are not elected by popular vote. I don't know why you think Trump acting like a nut job and pissing on the US constitution is so clever. Neither did Hitler and that worked out well for Germany.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
US presidents are far harder to get rid of in between presidential elections unlike our PM where the PM can be voted out by the party at the drop of a hat. Also our PM's are not elected by popular vote. I don't know why you think Trump acting like a nut job and pissing on the US constitution is so clever. Neither did Hitler and that worked out well for Germany.
nswtrains
I didn't say anything about Trump other than I think he shows leadership... and I really don't want to hijack yet another thread when there's already a long-running one.

I was really hoping that Malcolm Bligh Turnbull would be different to the conga line of failures we'd had before him if only for the sake of our poor country that seems to get forgotten in this scuffle for the big chair. Anyway, what can you do, you're also right that Prime Ministers can (and will) get sacked at regular intervals BETWEEN elections, apparently that's what we do now.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

US presidents are far harder to get rid of in between presidential elections unlike our PM where the PM can be voted out by the party at the drop of a hat. Also our PM's are not elected by popular vote. I don't know why you think Trump acting like a nut job and pissing on the US constitution is so clever. Neither did Hitler and that worked out well for Germany.
I didn't say anything about Trump other than I think he shows leadership... and I really don't want to hijack yet another thread when there's already a long-running one.

I was really hoping that Malcolm Bligh Turnbull would be different to the conga line of failures we'd had before him if only for the sake of our poor country that seems to get forgotten in this scuffle for the big chair. Anyway, what can you do, you're also right that Prime Ministers can (and will) get sacked at regular intervals BETWEEN elections, apparently that's what we do now.
don_dunstan
Your idea of showing leadership is different to mine. Some nut case ignoring reality is not my idea of leadership.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Your idea of showing leadership is different to mine. Some nut case ignoring reality is not my idea of leadership.
nswtrains
Again, all I can say in relation to this is that we haven't had real leadership since Howard and that's a really sad indictment on our nation. Even the Morrison government doesn't cut the mustard, he already proven prone to vacillation rather than decisive action at the risk of alienating someone... somewhere...

Terrible spineless spivs we've had in charge - Gillard for selling out the windfall gains we could have made back big iron ore, Abbott for allowing the car industry to go off-shore, Tunbull for consistently resisting the Banking Royal Commission even though it uncovered systematic frauds against the Aussie public. And a special mention to our former Trade Minister Andrew Robb for selling out immediately to the Chinese Communist Party - well done, mate. Where are the Prime Ministers that have stood up for the national interest in the last decade? Nowhere to be seen.

The consequences for Australia of the leadership vacuum are evident all around, look at the political inability to stop the gas cartel feasting on our resources for a pittance - even places like Qatar don't allow that to happen. We've really hit Banana Republic (Constitutional monarchy?) in my opinion just on that one issue alone - can't stop our own citizenry being pillaged by the likes of Chevron and Shell. Disgusting, pathetic. What kind of a future while we allow our leadership to sell us all out so consistently?
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
What kind of a future while we allow our leadership to sell us all out so consistently?
"don_dunstan"
You've used the right terminology- - - "leadership"  (lack of).
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
US presidents are far harder to get rid of in between presidential elections unlike our PM where the PM can be voted out by the party at the drop of a hat. Also our PM's are not elected by popular vote. I don't know why you think Trump acting like a nut job and pissing on the US constitution is so clever. Neither did Hitler and that worked out well for Germany.
I didn't say anything about Trump other than I think he shows leadership... and I really don't want to hijack yet another thread when there's already a long-running one.

I was really hoping that Malcolm Bligh Turnbull would be different to the conga line of failures we'd had before him if only for the sake of our poor country that seems to get forgotten in this scuffle for the big chair. Anyway, what can you do, you're also right that Prime Ministers can (and will) get sacked at regular intervals BETWEEN elections, apparently that's what we do now.
don_dunstan
I don't think too many expected Turnbull's leadership to be anything more than it was. His personal politics is left leaning and in opposition to much of the LNP's core policies such as stopping boats and RE. He was a know leak, spy in the camp and had a history of party disruption / destabilization. Howard was able to keep him on a short leash and under control, Abbott wasn't and had his own problems to allow MT to get his support base.

My only hope for MT from the beginning was that he would prove everyone, including me wrong and provide stability and allow the govt continue its progress on balancing the budget before ALP get back in. In the end MT's indecisiveness was his own worst enemy and ongoing failure to win over the Australian people. The fact that MT immediately quit the parliament, risking a bi-election that could topple the govt shows how much he was in it for himself.

ScoMo now has the almost impossible task to win the next election, ironically at a time when their budgetary/economic performance will speak for itself, low unemployment levels, balanced budget (finally) and housing and energy affordability on the mend with healthy pay rises for many employees across many industries expected in 2019.

As ALP will be in govt by mid 2019 and Bill Shorten PM, their economic credentials are on the chopping block. This will be the 2nd time in 12 years the ALP will have been handed a healthy economy and balance sheet. Last time no debt, this time a large debt but budget in black. Will they F__k it up again or when they eventually get voted out leave the LNP with balanced budget and less debt?
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

........ This will be the 2nd time in 12 years the ALP will have been handed a healthy economy and balance sheet. ...........
RTT_Rules
The 2007 Healthy Economy and Balance Sheet came wrapped in the GFC, neglected infrastructure, legislated tax cuts, etc.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
........ This will be the 2nd time in 12 years the ALP will have been handed a healthy economy and balance sheet. ...........
The 2007 Healthy Economy and Balance Sheet came wrapped in the GFC, neglected infrastructure, legislated tax cuts, etc.
kitchgp
Less than 12 months after Rudd took over in fact.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
+$20B surplus, no net debt.

Yes they then had to deal with a GFC and did well to avoid a recession by going on a spending spree.

But 3 to 4 yrs after the GFC finished, they were still in deficit on loss of govt with every budget forecast to reduce failing to meet expectations.

Unfortunately with an economy in boom driven almost entirely by the private sector and unemployment at above full employment with gaps filled by 457, govt spending on infrastructure is difficult as the govt adding to the economy just drives up wages and inflation. The workers would basically need to all be imported.

Best thing a govt to do is bank the cash and be ready when the private sector falters.

I didn't agree with Howard personal tax cuts and Rudd could have reversed this.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
+$20B surplus, no net debt.

Yes they then had to deal with a GFC and did well to avoid a recession by going on a spending spree.

But 3 to 4 yrs after the GFC finished, they were still in deficit on loss of govt with every budget forecast to reduce failing to meet expectations.

Unfortunately with an economy in boom driven almost entirely by the private sector and unemployment at above full employment with gaps filled by 457, govt spending on infrastructure is difficult as the govt adding to the economy just drives up wages and inflation. The workers would basically need to all be imported.

Best thing a govt to do is bank the cash and be ready when the private sector falters.

I didn't agree with Howard personal tax cuts and Rudd could have reversed this.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Kerryn Phelps is the new member for Wentworth after Dr Phelps won easily with preferences over the Liberal candidate David Sharma:

Dr Phelps danced with supporters at the North Bondi Surf Life Saving Club before taking the stage to claim the historic win.

"Thank you to the people of Wentworth for placing your trust in me," she said.

"I won't let you down."

Where to now for the minority government of Scott Morrison? Looks like there will be a spill in the National Party before too long, are they determined to go down still bickering or what!
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

...................................

But 3 to 4 yrs after the GFC finished, they were still in deficit on loss of govt with every budget forecast to reduce failing to meet expectation.

.................................................
RTT_Rules
The GFC wasn’t a six month event. Some countries (and a lot of individuals) are still suffering from its effects. One think tank’s evaluation:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/lasting-effects-financial-crisis-have-yet-be-felt#
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Not talking about other countries, talking about Australia.

In the minerals sector I remember Oct 2008 being crunch time in Rio. Ships being cancelled etc, employees told mines will shut for Xmas due to lack of demand. By Dec they asking to work.

In Aluminium Q1 and Q2 2009 was crunch time.

In Gladstone mass de manning Q1 2009, by Q3 2009 it was all over.

The Australia economy had mostly recovered by mid 2010. The mining sector was again booming by mid 2011 as if nothing had happened. Unemployment levels were bavk to very low lows by 2012.

Yes the Fed budget failed to recover.

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