2018 State Election / Transport

 
  ParkesHub Chief Commissioner

The 6% swing to Labor looks pretty universal

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  mejhammers1 Deputy Commissioner

The 6% swing to Labor looks pretty universal
ParkesHub
I cannot wait see Andrew Bolt's cry some more. My beloved Liberals have gone from a party of shared values to a bunch of neo-Conservative dickheads. I just hope David Davis loses in the Upper House.

Michael
  Gman_86 Chief Commissioner

Location: Melton, where the sparks dare not roam!
Prior to today, a lot of the commentary has focussed on the sandbelt seats of Bentleigh, Modrialloc, Carrum and Frankston. Suggesting that if the government were to lose those seats, then the Coalition would romp into power. All of these seats have swung further to the Labor Party.

On top of that, Sandringham, Caulfield, Ringwood, Burwood, Box Hill and Hawthorn, all blue ribbon Liberal heart land seats have all have swung to the ALP. Kew and Brighton may follow too.

What ever way you look at it, today's election is nothing short of a disaster for the Liberal party.

Matthew Guy's position is going to be untenable after tonight.
  mejhammers1 Deputy Commissioner

Prior to today, a lot of the commentary has focussed on the sandbelt seats of Bentleigh, Modrialloc, Carrum and Frankston. Suggesting that if the government were to lose those seats, then the Coalition would romp into power. All of these seats have swung further to the Labor Party.

On top of that, Sandringham, Caulfield, Ringwood, Burwood, Box Hill and Hawthorn, all blue ribbon Liberal heart land seats have all have swung to the ALP. Kew and Brighton may follow too.

What ever way you look at it, today's election is nothing short of a disaster for the Liberal party.

Matthew Guy's position is going to be untenable after tonight.
Gman_86
Kew is a Liberal Hold, But Caulfield has gone and Brighton is tight.


Michael
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Prior to today, a lot of the commentary has focussed on the sandbelt seats of Bentleigh, Modrialloc, Carrum and Frankston. Suggesting that if the government were to lose those seats, then the Coalition would romp into power. All of these seats have swung further to the Labor Party.

On top of that, Sandringham, Caulfield, Ringwood, Burwood, Box Hill and Hawthorn, all blue ribbon Liberal heart land seats have all have swung to the ALP. Kew and Brighton may follow too.

What ever way you look at it, today's election is nothing short of a disaster for the Liberal party.

Matthew Guy's position is going to be untenable after tonight.
Gman_86
Their Federal counterparts have also played a part in the rout, The Feds don't know whether they are coming or going!

Kind Regards
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Demographic shifts are a big factor in those inner-Eastern suburban seats becoming ALP.

The No-Skyrail campaign basically had zero influence.

Along the Murray River it's now mostly Independent if predictions prove to be correct (ie. Mildura, Benambra, Shepparton).  Obviously they're sick and tired of being ignored by Spring St and the major parties.

Some big votes for Independent candidates in Outer-Western suburbs like Melton and Werribee. Again safe seats that have been ignored by Spring St.
  Gman_86 Chief Commissioner

Location: Melton, where the sparks dare not roam!
The Liberal Party, both federal and state can no longer ignore the writing on the wall. The exteme right wing has taken too much hold, the Tony Abbott and Eric Abetz types are causing major damage to the party at both levels.
  mejhammers1 Deputy Commissioner

Prior to today, a lot of the commentary has focussed on the sandbelt seats of Bentleigh, Modrialloc, Carrum and Frankston. Suggesting that if the government were to lose those seats, then the Coalition would romp into power. All of these seats have swung further to the Labor Party.

On top of that, Sandringham, Caulfield, Ringwood, Burwood, Box Hill and Hawthorn, all blue ribbon Liberal heart land seats have all have swung to the ALP. Kew and Brighton may follow too.

What ever way you look at it, today's election is nothing short of a disaster for the Liberal party.

Matthew Guy's position is going to be untenable after tonight.
Their Federal counterparts have also played a part in the rout, The Feds don't know whether they are coming or going!

Kind Regards
lsrailfan
The Victorian Liberal Party fell for Otherism. Whatever you think about Dan Andrews, he is a very brave man. To pursue such socially progressive policies, in a world that is lurching to the right, is brave to the extreme. His steadfast opposition against any form of discrimination whether it is against the LGBTI community, ethnic and racial minorities, is to be admired. I am glad the Coalition is gone!!!


Michael
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
The 6% swing to Labor looks pretty universal
I cannot wait see Andrew Bolt's cry some more. My beloved Liberals have gone from a party of shared values to a bunch of neo-Conservative dickheads. I just hope David Davis loses in the Upper House.

Michael
mejhammers1

As Antony Green made a point of saying just a few minutes ago, the opinion polls were out by around 5% and Dan has had one of the biggest Labor wins in modern political history, exceeding Steve Bracks landslide second win in 2002.

A special shout out to former shadow Attorney-General, John Pescuitto, the probable former Member for Hawthorn who continued on the ABC election panel with excellent grace and dignity.

Mike.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
I see that Ripon seems to have fallen to the ALP.
  mejhammers1 Deputy Commissioner

The 6% swing to Labor looks pretty universal
I cannot wait see Andrew Bolt's cry some more. My beloved Liberals have gone from a party of shared values to a bunch of neo-Conservative dickheads. I just hope David Davis loses in the Upper House.

Michael

As Antony Green made a point of saying just a few minutes ago, the opinion polls were out by around 5% and Dan has had one of the biggest Labor wins in modern political history, exceeding Steve Bracks landslide second win in 2002.

A special shout out to former shadow Attorney-General, John Pescuitto, the probable former Member for Hawthorn who continued on the ABC election panel with excellent grace and dignity.

Mike.
The Vinelander
John Pescuitto is a good man and not a neo-Con headbanger like David Davis. I wish him well.


Michael
  reubstar6 Chief Train Controller

An interesting piece of information that I certainly didn't know was the Labor candidate for Brighton, Declan Martin, is apparently a passionate train enthusiast and member of the PTUA. He's also 19. I think if he somehow manages to get up, this will be one of the greatest victories ever in a seat. A 19 year old defeating the Liberals in a seat that Labor has never won.
Does anyone know anything else about him?

Also, I am excited for the implications of this huge majority. Hopefully, Dan might build more skyrail with less of a fear of the consequences. What else do you people think will take place?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
@Vinelander

Yes, Pesutto comes across as a genuine good bloke, but it seems that he has been tarred with the same brush as many of his colleagues, who have now suffered from the rejection of the incessant rhetoric from the coalition at large. This point was very well projected in Andrews' victory speech with his words that Victorians have "Rejected the low road of fear and division."

I wonder how the Murdoch press will spin it? Actually, I don't care.
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

I wonder how the Murdoch press will spin it? Actually, I don't care.
DirtyBallast



Even they know when they’re beat.

So the looming crisis of values in the Liberal Party is no longer a looming crisis - it’s exploded all over the Victorian electoral map. They have an Opposition with not much more than a front bench. A base which might as well no longer exist. And seemingly no hope or leadership left in the Parliament for the next four years. John Pesutto was the direction they could have followed, but chose not to, and it has cost them big time.

Bolt is already claiming this happened because they are too far to the left. The deep worry for Liberal members and voters is that the party leadership will pursue this narrow-minded ignorance. The Liberal Party was founded on, essentially, economic conservatism and social liberalism, and if it does not remember this soon, it faces national wipeout.

This result will most likely be the start of a radical rebalancing in Australian politics, where the “left” that has been demonised by Liberal parliamentarians is slowly recognised to be, in reality, the new middle Australia.

And we can look forward to many, many more trains running to everywhere as a result. Smile
  woodford Chief Commissioner

The last 2 state elections have shown that Victoria is quite pro rail, Over the past years I have had the distinct impression that a lot of Railpage posters did not understand the vast amount of funds Victorian Labor has been putting into rail. With The level crossing project, Metro Tunnel, the Mernda Extension and others. Could it be the electorate is not as self centered as it first appears and has finally rewarded a party that IS actually doing what it wants.

woodford
  reubstar6 Chief Train Controller

Woodford, I don't think this website will ever be satisfied by the amount of money poured into rail.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Don't underestimate the federal factors, the LNP is on the nose even with its traditional electorates in inner eastern Melbourne. Matthew Guy was all over the shop with his promises - I wasn't living there for the election this time but from interstate it looked like Dan was providing a costed albeit expensive vision for Melbourne going ahead into the future. Also as others have already mentioned Matthew Guy was too tarred by his questionable decisions in the Baillieu/Napthine governments whereas there were other choices potentially more palatable in the election.

But yeah, if this doesn't send shock-waves through the LNP nationally and force them to DO SOMETHING for a change then nothing will.
  Greensleeves Chief Commissioner

Location: If it isn't obvious by now, it should be.
But yeah, if this doesn't send shock-waves through the LNP nationally and force them to DO SOMETHING for a change then nothing will.
don_dunstan

Given the response from Josh Frydenberg saying that it was all about state issues, I have little hope for that.
  drunkill Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne, Australia
The federal election can now be won or lost solely in Victoria, all the pork barreling in regional QLD and NSW is no longer enough for the LNP to stay in power.

Either Victoria is going to get some big ticket items as promises before May 2019, or they'll just concede the next federal election and lick their wounds for 3 years.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
The federal election can now be won or lost solely in Victoria, all the pork barreling in regional QLD and NSW is no longer enough for the LNP to stay in power.

Either Victoria is going to get some big ticket items as promises before May 2019, or they'll just concede the next federal election and lick their wounds for 3 years.
drunkill

I think you may be onto something here, but i suppose time will tell. The Federal Libs can be in denial all they like to any effect of this result. They may be right, or put their head in the sand. But heads in the sand usually don't see the kick in the pants coming either.

I've read a few articles this morning, and (here's hoping the link post thing work Shocked)

http://https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/24/victorian-election-2018-live-results-seats-analysis-labor-daniel-andrews-matthew-guy-liberals?page=with:block-5bf909dde4b045afb4422de7#block-5bf909dde4b045afb4422de7


If the number of seats shown here is accurate/stabilizes or even increases, then unless there's a galactic F..up in Andrews 2nd term, would it be a fair bet that with a majority like this that he could even walk into a 3rd term in office??

Once the dust has settled from postal vote counting and the final outcome is known, I wonder whether they might ramp up and go further with the grade separations etc that they've had going??  It certainly looks like works thus far has paid them dividends, so IF the government believes it has been emboldened by their win - who knows?

Regards


Edits cos link thing doing weird stuff
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
An interesting piece of information that I certainly didn't know was the Labor candidate for Brighton, Declan Martin, is apparently a passionate train enthusiast and member of the PTUA. He's also 19. I think if he somehow manages to get up, this will be one of the greatest victories ever in a seat. A 19 year old defeating the Liberals in a seat that Labor has never won.
Does anyone know anything else about him?
reubstar6

This was simply an astonishing result for Labor and the unheard of Declan Martin who in Antony Greens very brief bio of him, which apparently ran to two lines, that Declan is a member of the PTUA and that Labor has NEVER won the seat before.

Even more astonishing...if this is even possible, Declan hadn't organised a post poll party and had to travel to the adjacent seat of Bentleigh for drinks with a few close friends.

Taken from the ABC link:

'He spent just $1,750 on his six-week campaign'.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-25/victorian-election-results-brighton-could-fall-to-labor/10552158

Mike.
  james.au Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney, NSW
Interesting prospect of an independent in Mildura too...
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Interesting prospect of an independent in Mildura too...
james.au

I'm trying to maintain my composure regards Mildura...but the pressure is building....Razz
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Interesting to see the Greens face a potential wipeout in the Upper House.  There might be more Taxi drivers than Greens as MLCs.  

Although in the end a likely leftist majority there. We won't know for weeks/months.

Looking ahead to 4 years time:
If the economy goes belly-up and the State ends up like it did in 1991-92, then who knows what might happen?
  ParkesHub Chief Commissioner

Don't underestimate the federal factors, the LNP is on the nose even with its traditional electorates in inner eastern Melbourne. Matthew Guy was all over the shop with his promises - I wasn't living there for the election this time but from interstate it looked like Dan was providing a costed albeit expensive vision for Melbourne going ahead into the future. Also as others have already mentioned Matthew Guy was too tarred by his questionable decisions in the Baillieu/Napthine governments whereas there were other choices potentially more palatable in the election.

But yeah, if this doesn't send shock-waves through the LNP nationally and force them to DO SOMETHING for a change then nothing will.
don_dunstan
One of the problems that the Victorian Liberals face is the takeover (attempted at this stage) by the evangelical extreme nutters. If that happens, then I doubt voters will give them another chance for many years.

Additionally, you can't just come up with fancy ideas at the death-knock like Davis, Guy, et al did that are poorly costed and lacking detail. People aren't stupid (mostly!).

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