The End of the Internal Combustion Engine is Nigh

 
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).

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  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Carnot
Agree, EV's are the future, Australia is lagging due to lack of EV range available in RHD that suits Australian car market, but look at whats coming starting from 2019 and into early 2020's as the car manufacturers ramp up different models and move from R&D test platforms in selective markets.

Disagree on your prediction - Personal Motoring costs will not change a great deal. Yes they are more expensive now, but they are also new, demand is high and the industry and supply chains a work in progress.
  awsgc24 Minister for Railways

Location: Sydney
The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Carnot
Petrol taxes pay for a lot of roads. How will this continue if cars are refilled with electricity?
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Petrol taxes pay for a lot of roads. How will this continue if cars are refilled with electricity?
awsgc24
Electric car Tax?
  fzr560 Chief Train Controller

The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Petrol taxes pay for a lot of roads. How will this continue if cars are refilled with electricity?
awsgc24
Without any prompting at all, good corporate citizens like AGL(you remember the ads) will apply a no disadvantage test and compensate all levels of government for any unforeseen consequences of their actions.
  Big J Assistant Commissioner

Location: In Paradise
The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Petrol taxes pay for a lot of roads. How will this continue if cars are refilled with electricity?
awsgc24
Road usage charge is what has been proposed. It could work in Europe, but in Australia it would disadvantage Australians living in the regions. If this concept would be applied would simply push more people to live in the capital cities. Probably not an outcome any government would like.
  awsgc24 Minister for Railways

Location: Sydney
Road usage charge is what has been proposed. It could work in Europe, but in Australia it would disadvantage Australians living in the regions. If this concept would be applied would simply push more people to live in the capital cities. Probably not an outcome any government would like.
Big J
"Road Usage Charge" is a no-no word, namely "Toll". Can you imagine what outrage this will cause?

Actually a RUC is quite sensible, except for the knee-jerk reaction.

The busier the road at any time of day, the higher the RUC.

The quieter the road, such as in the regions, the lower if not absense of any RUC, unlike what Big J says above.

Gov'mints would be too afraid to introduce any RUC. Sad
  Nightfire Minister for Railways

Location: Gippsland
The writing seems to be on the wall.  EVs will be the future:
https://www.motoring.com.au/volkswagen-confirms-the-death-of-the-internal-combustion-engine-115942/

Interesting times ahead.

And it will require a significant increase in electricity generating capacity.  And not of the coal-fired variety.

Prediction - Personal motoring will all get very expensive and the best alternative will be Public Transport (if you're lucky to have access to it).
Petrol taxes pay for a lot of roads. How will this continue if cars are refilled with electricity?
Road usage charge is what has been proposed. It could work in Europe, but in Australia it would disadvantage Australians living in the regions. If this concept would be applied would simply push more people to live in the capital cities. Probably not an outcome any government would like.
Big J
Why would It disadvantage people living In regional areas ?

People In regional areas already pay the highest fuel prices.

Road usage charges would be structured so people driving on gridlocked congested urban roads during peak times would pay the most per Km, where people traveling on empty outback roads would pay the least per Km.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Road usage charge is what has been proposed. It could work in Europe, but in Australia it would disadvantage Australians living in the regions. If this concept would be applied would simply push more people to live in the capital cities. Probably not an outcome any government would like.
"Road Usage Charge" is a no-no word, namely "Toll". Can you imagine what outrage this will cause?

Actually a RUC is quite sensible, except for the knee-jerk reaction.

The busier the road at any time of day, the higher the RUC.

The quieter the road, such as in the regions, the lower if not absense of any RUC, unlike what Big J says above.

Gov'mints would be too afraid to introduce any RUC. Sad
awsgc24
Road usage tax has to happen regardless of EV's.

The current revenue stream from petrol/diesel is declining per km driven and continued improvements in efficiency, smaller cars and hybrids won't make it any better.

NZ I believe has already solved this issue with diesels as diesels pay per km.

As mentioned by Awsgc24, you can have flat road usage but also priority due to the increasing use of live connections to the internet in many newer cars especially some EV's.

The do nothing scenario won't work beyond the next decade, it will come!
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
Umm, we seem to be forgetting that road vehicles are the only things that are powered by internal combustion engines. Lawnmowers, other garden tools, yelow plant, farm machinery, railway locomotives, aeroplanes, boats, ships and probably many more things.
  awsgc24 Minister for Railways

Location: Sydney
There was a TV series about the US business giants (robber barons) who created empires out of nothing, such as Rockefellow and Standard Oil.

In one episode Standard Oil had a problem with light weight gasses such as especially gasoline (aka Petrol). There was plenty of waste gasses being burnt off because of the lack of any markets to sell it to. Fortunately, the motor car came along was able to pay to use this waste gas in vast quantities.

If we convert cars to electric power, what will happen to all this now useless gasoline?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
There was a TV series about the US business giants (robber barons) who created empires out of nothing, such as Rockefellow and Standard Oil.

In one episode Standard Oil had a problem with light weight gasses such as especially gasoline (aka Petrol). There was plenty of waste gasses being burnt off because of the lack of any markets to sell it to. Fortunately, the motor car came along was able to pay to use this waste gas in vast quantities.

If we convert cars to electric power, what will happen to all this now useless gasoline?
Yeah, I think they also used to dump it in rivers.

Regarding petrol today, it will be diesel first as diesel is being pushed out of cars and even some heavy vehicle use such as China where they have converted much of their truck fleet to gas.

Regarding the refining, they will change the crude blend to match their customer base as well as their internal cracking / polymerisation processes to make other carbon chains. Note all crude has the same value and today its based on quality and carbon blend, for example Light Sweet Crude is worth 2-3 x normal crude.

Note this process adjustment will happen over decades so nothing traumatic.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
There was a TV series about the US business giants (robber barons) who created empires out of nothing, such as Rockefellow and Standard Oil.

In one episode Standard Oil had a problem with light weight gasses such as especially gasoline (aka Petrol). There was plenty of waste gasses being burnt off because of the lack of any markets to sell it to. Fortunately, the motor car came along was able to pay to use this waste gas in vast quantities.

If we convert cars to electric power, what will happen to all this now useless gasoline?
awsgc24
This is interesting, peak oil demand expected mid 2030's, although some say late 2020's

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/16/world-petrol-demand-peak-electric-car-wood-mackenzie-oil
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Your town.
Stupid thread title.

As stated in the article, it will be decades until such engines in the Volkswagen Audi Group are literally phased out. The cynic in me suggests that VAG are trying to regain ground from their self inflicted dieselgate disaster.

I'll go further and suggest that VAG are now publicly trying to promote themselves as being environmentally proactive, without actually changing anything.

Electric vehicles will obviously take over from internal combustion engines at some point, but that point is certainly not nigh.
  DJPeters Chief Train Controller

Buy the time electric cars hit the road wholesale in Aust the price of power to charge them up will most probably be 200 times more than the cost of petrol now. Better start morgaging your house now to pay for the power to charge the batteries up.  This is sarcasm in case you missed it.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

A good article here on the ABC website looking at EV pros and cons: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-12-08/electric-cars-revolution-environment/10589270

IC engines will remain in use for decades to come in ships and trains.  There will be some transition to electric power for much of this though.

Air travel with their oil-hungry turbines of the jet and turboprop variety will soldier on for many more decades.  There really isn't an alternative apart from perhaps bio-fuels.  High Speed Rail will be it's main competitor.
  kitchgp Assistant Commissioner

Wikipedia's list of countries and cities moving towards banning fossil fuel vehicles:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Wikipedia's list of countries and cities moving towards banning fossil fuel vehicles:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles
kitchgp
Its an intent to do so in 10 to 25 years, not a commitment or outcome yet! But I expect more to follow and many to be inacted st some point.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Buy the time electric cars hit the road wholesale in Aust the price of power to charge them up will most probably be 200 times more than the cost of petrol now. Better start morgaging your house now to pay for the power to charge the batteries up.  This is sarcasm in case you missed it.
DJPeters
The mark up price for commercial fast chargers in NZ is around 10 x the wholesale price.

There is currently around 20-40 GWh of base load power per night available for charging EV's, roughly 50,000 cars worth. However as coal power stations bite the dust, this will disappear and likely be replaced with something that stored electricity, so hard to see the price being cheaper.

Currently if 50% of the 16m Australian fleet of cars was switched to EV based on a driving distance of 20,000km per year, the power required to charge these cars would equal the total annual output of the Australian coal fired power generation output. So by 2050, we will need to replace the coal fired power generation, twice!
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
A good article here on the ABC website looking at EV pros and cons: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-12-08/electric-cars-revolution-environment/10589270

IC engines will remain in use for decades to come in ships and trains.  There will be some transition to electric power for much of this though.

Air travel with their oil-hungry turbines of the jet and turboprop variety will soldier on for many more decades.  There really isn't an alternative apart from perhaps bio-fuels.  High Speed Rail will be it's main competitor.
Carnot
Agree, if you look at all the forecasts, EV's won't hit 50% of the global market until mid 2030's. The big part of the problem is the lack of range or choice for buyers, so wanabe EV owners are still buying ICE because they don't have an option yet, especially in Right Hand Drive. Then of course you have the brand loyals, like my boss Porsche Panarama lover who won't replace her current model until the Porsche EV is available.  

Tesla can only afford to add one new model every 2.5 to 3 years and they are too small a company to risk getting one wrong and cannot afford another Model 3 fiasco, so growth there is limited with Model Y due in 2020 and a Ute type car around 2022. The traditional American car markers have now jumped on the band wagon but there mass roll out is not due until 2022 or there about and beyond.

The Germans, the argument being did they just completely miss the boat and now in a panic trying to catch up, but expect they will and again mass roll out or at least choice of range for consumers wil not be in the show rooms until 2022 to 2025. To speed things up they are no longer introducing solely new EV models, rather providing as an option EV. Some industry insiders the disadvantage in doing this is you have the constraints of a ICE car design in an EV car thus not taking advantage of what an EV traction system can offer in the car shape and layout.
https://phys.org/news/2018-09-late-party-german-carmakers-tesla.html
https://www.ft.com/content/782d053c-76be-11e7-90c0-90a9d1bc9691
https://insideevs.com/tesla-ev-transition-surprises-german-automakers/
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-0419-tesla-germany-20160419-story.html

Another interesting fun fact, the current growth in Year On Year EV sales is reported to be almost identical to that of cars when first invented. However the biggest industry challenge is the consumer "Range Phobia". People wanting cars that have range they in general don't use. If you woke up every morning to a car fully charged, range of 450 - 500km, how often would you need to recharge/refuel during the day? My wife and I in UAE worked out its once per 18 to 24mths when we drove into Oman and last week when we went camping on KSA border. When we lived back home in Gladstone Qld, it was once every 6mth or so, ie usually a drive to Brisbane or distant camping. For Brisbane, recharge while emptying the bladder and stretching the legs, getting a snack would have worked fine. Camping in most cases would have also worked provided fuel stations had recharge stations.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Umm, we seem to be forgetting that road vehicles are the only things that are powered by internal combustion engines. Lawnmowers, other garden tools, yelow plant, farm machinery, railway locomotives, aeroplanes, boats, ships and probably many more things.
Graham4405

To a large degree, the internal combustion engine will take an increasing role...in the back seat of powering transport.

My garden tools are rechargeable electric, or just electric. When my 4 stroke mower dies, it will definitely be replaced by a battery mower.

I ride an E-bike, which keeps me fit because I can ride further.

The latest battery cars are coming down in price and their range is increasing. You can now comfortably drive the latest electric cars from Dalby to Brisbane without recharging on the way. Just recharge for an hour before the return journey and the cost is peanuts compared to using petrol and they are SO much more fun to drive.

Mike.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The lowest cost pure EV you can buy (Hyundai Ioniq) has just been released.  $44k is still a lot more than a base-model i30, although servicing costs of just $160 per year and lower running costs are pretty enticing.  230 km range is rather anxiety inducing though...

https://www.caradvice.com.au/706588/2019-hyundai-ioniq-review-ev-phev/
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
The lowest cost pure EV you can buy (Hyundai Ioniq) has just been released.  $44k is still a lot more than a base-model i30, although servicing costs of just $160 per year and lower running costs are pretty enticing.  230 km range is rather anxiety inducing though...

https://www.caradvice.com.au/706588/2019-hyundai-ioniq-review-ev-phev/
Carnot

The Hyundai Ioniq is not marketed as a long distance tourer. It's a city commuter and shopping cart for which 230km range is more than adequate.

Granted, EV's that travel up to 500km on a single charge aren't cheap, but those vehicles prices are falling overall and the range, increasing.

Mike.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Look forward To Freight Rail reverting to steam loco's Laughing Should be interesting to see wood burners taking over from Diesel-electrics
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
You can now comfortably drive the latest electric cars from Dalby to Brisbane without recharging on the way. Just recharge for an hour before the return journey and the cost is peanuts compared to using petrol and they are SO much more fun to drive.
The Vinelander

I'd be more likely to drive from Dalby to Cunnamulla than Dalby to Brisbane. If it took an hour to refill your fuel tank at a service station you wouldn't go back.

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