It's the economy, stupid!

 
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
And please don't tell me that Hawke and Keating could fix this mess - that they themselves created with their cryto-Thatcherite agenda of off-shoring all the good jobs. The only thing those two have on their minds now is whether one of them might become President in the future... the economic welfare of the ordinary Australian is the last thing on either of those pirates' minds.
Pretty sure you have that as a permanent copy and paste. It’s not as if you need an excuse not to vote ALP.

You intentionally ignore the political reality of the times. I recall the Liberal Party wets vs drys, the ascendency of Murdoch, and how he effectively kept Thatcher in power in spite of the turmoil that engulfed the UK. Under Hawke/Keating we avoided the excesses of Thatcherism. Everyone expected Labor to go off the reservation again, but they didn’t and that’s why they lasted beyond one term. Politics is the art of the possible.

Off shoring or best shoring of jobs actually took off during the Howard years. I had personal experience of "making it work."
Groundrelay
I'd argue it was even worse under Hawke and Keating because they pretended they were the worker's best friend all the while screwing them. Just look at what they actually did.

The Accord marked a period of wages growth below-inflation while corporate profits exploded to their highest levels in decades. Rapid decline of tariffs against imported products even in the middle of a recession - Keating didn't give a damn about the workers at Nissan when the plant closed, he actually thought it was a good thing. He didn't give a damn about the suffering of the working class, he was too busy virtue signalling about reconciliation to be bothered with the people who had elected him.

Howard just followed on from exactly where Keating left off, they pretty much didn't change anything, steady as she goes. You've got to stop forgiving the Labor Party instead of holding them to account; they are primarily responsible for the coming economic storm that will make the Great Depression look like a picnic.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Aussie property market is officially in crisis; Josh Frydenburg has been having secret meetings with APRA, the RBA and the Big Four to try and work out how to flood the housing market with liquidity. In the meantime there's more than a whiff of panic on a lot of real-estate and property blogs - my own city of Adelaide seemingly immune from the massive drops in Sydney and Melbourne so far. BUT now this post yesterday from "Property Chat":

Hi, just curious if anyone is selling in Adelaide at the moment? I’m shocked at the cr*p amounts I’ve been offered for my properties!! I’ve just sold an IP in Glenelg North and made a good amount on this one but I’ve only been offered $410,000 for my maisonette in Glengowrie! I paid $403,000 in 2009!! I’ve also been offered very low amounts on a Sheidow Park house. I know it’s a slow market but what is going on??!

Sounds like the investor in this example is about to experience the down-side of the property market.
  michaelgm Deputy Commissioner

The Aussie property market is officially in crisis; Josh Frydenburg has been having secret meetings with APRA, the RBA and the Big Four to try and work out how to flood the housing market with liquidity. In the meantime there's more than a whiff of panic on a lot of real-estate and property blogs - my own city of Adelaide seemingly immune from the massive drops in Sydney and Melbourne so far. BUT now this post yesterday from "Property Chat":

Hi, just curious if anyone is selling in Adelaide at the moment? I’m shocked at the cr*p amounts I’ve been offered for my properties!! I’ve just sold an IP in Glenelg North and made a good amount on this one but I’ve only been offered $410,000 for my maisonette in Glengowrie! I paid $403,000 in 2009!! I’ve also been offered very low amounts on a Sheidow Park house. I know it’s a slow market but what is going on??!

Sounds like the investor in this example is about to experience the down-side of the property market.
don_dunstan
Don, I posted in why are power prices going up.
Smart money will usually get the dumb money.

Old mate above could very well sell that same property to the original vendor, for a much reduced price all the while accepting risks for EVERYTHING, in between.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
I'd argue it was even worse under Hawke and Keating because they pretended they were the worker's best friend all the while screwing them.
don_dunstan
What emotive rubbish. How do you protect workers from the slash and burn mentality of the Liberal Party dries if you're in opposition???  Imagine a one term ALP government followed by at least two terms of LNP in the age of Thatcherism. Now explain why that would have been a workers paradise.

Howard just followed on from exactly where Keating left off, they pretty much didn't change anything, steady as she goes. You've got to stop forgiving the Labor Party instead of holding them to account; they are primarily responsible for the coming economic storm that will make the Great Depression look like a picnic.
don_dunstan
And your absolute bias is evident yet again.  Of course you won't hold Howard to account. His, like all LNP governments, do well because the timing is right. They do SFA except attack unions and oppose wage increases. They need the global economy to lift our economy and government revenue. Then they roll out unsustainable tax cuts to buy votes, which it seems they're going to do again.
With talk of a global recession in 2020 perhaps Labor should let the LNP win next year.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Don, I posted in why are power prices going up.
Smart money will usually get the dumb money.

Old mate above could very well sell that same property to the original vendor, for a much reduced price all the while accepting risks for EVERYTHING, in between.
michaelgm
Michael, we're about to live through some very interesting times of that I'm sure... we're officially in crash territory with our major eastern seaboard cities both apparently in free-fall: The latest CoreLogic figures show that Sydney has lost 3.5% in the last QUARTER and Melbourne 3%... just the last quarter mind you. Think about that, the enormous amounts of money that are disappearing out of those markets. All sorts of properties are going to have their valuations thrown out the window is one big problem and it's also interesting to note that the crash is more or less confined (in Sydney particularly) to houses rather than apartments, suggesting there's a big softening in the value of the actual land.

I have no doubt there's full blown panic behind the scenes considering our economy is almost entirely based on selling services and houses to one another - ten percent of GDP is construction, imagine what happens when those slumping valuations pass through to reduced demand for new property, renovations, etc etc.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
There's several things wrong with this Sydney Morning Herald article "Meet the drivers behind Uber";

Jawad arrived in Sydney from Pakistan in 2015 to study management and logistics at the University of Wollongong's Sydney campus. On top of full-time university, he drove Uber for up to 80 hours a week.

These days, Jawad wouldn't be able to drive those 16-hour shifts as new laws in NSW restrict drivers to 12 hours per day. Jawad says his university grades could have been better if he wasn't driving so often but values the financial independence he was able to gain.

"I was able to pay off my degree in two years time. Not only the degree, it eventually paid for my wedding."

This man arrives here on a student visa, works 80 hours a week (how safely did he drive while that exhausted?) and is in clear breach of rules that say foreign students can't work more than 15 hours per week but I guess nobody is policing that one so who cares... Fair enough that he wanted to make a lot of money but as the article points out there's a lot of Australians in precarious work situations who drive for Uber who this man was competing against. And driving a car 80 hours a week is frankly ridiculous and almost certainly against the law.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Your town.
Needless to say, the law may as well not exist for those who choose not to obey it!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Needless to say, the law may as well not exist for those who choose not to obey it!
DirtyBallast
Yeah well exactly. Kelly O'Dwyer was asked this question a few years ago in relation to foreign real-estate purchases - why isn't it being policed at all - and she couldn't answer. It's really pointless having any sort of laws in that area whatsoever if they're routinely not being enforced, in fact it makes a mockery of our legislature and government.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Anyone who might be wondering what the Chinese Communist Party is planning in case their economic situation turns bad need only have a look at this speech by noted Professor Xiang Songzuo the other day - very quickly banned by the CCP when they realised it sent a bad message to the West:

Since the beginning of the year... all kinds of ideological statements have been thrown around: statements like “private property will be eliminated,” “private ownership will eventually be abolished if not now,” “it’s time for the private enterprises to fade away,” or “all private companies should be turned over to their workers.” Then there was this high-profile study of Marx and the Communist Manifesto. Remember that line in the Communist Manifesto? Abolition of private property. What kind of signal do you think this sends to private entrepreneurs?...

...At the symposium on the private sector, General Secretary Xi Jinping talked about six issues. Among them I am most concerned about the sixth: the protection of personal safety and property. Think about it. In a country with robust rule of law, where everyone is equal before the law, shouldn’t these basic rights be properly guaranteed for everyone, entrepreneurs and  commoners alike?

It has been four decades since the reform and opening up, yet the General Secretary still feels a need to specifically promote entrepreneurs’ rights to personal safety and the security of their property. This reflects the gravity of the issues facing the governance of Chinese society and state.

So as expected the already blurry lines between state and private property will get even more unclear, especially if the state decides that it needs what you own. Too bad for the 'aspirational' Chinese middle class, eh, no wonder everyone wanted to get their money out of China.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Goldman Sachs are in terrible trouble, they're being pursued by the new Malaysian government of Mohammed Mahartir for billions in damaged for facilitating the corruption of the now disgraced former Prime Minister Najib Razak. Rolling Stone:

Just before Christmas, Malaysian authorities filed criminal charges against Goldman, seeking a stunning $7.5 billion in reparations for the bank’s role in the scandal. Singapore authorities also announced they were expanding their own 1MDB probe to include Goldman.

In the 1MDB scheme, actors tied to former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak allegedly siphoned mountains of cash out of a state investment fund. The misrouted money went to lavish parties with celebrity guests like Alicia Keys, a $35 million jet, works by Monet and Van Gogh, property in New York, Los Angeles and London, and (ironically) the funding of the movie The Wolf of Wall Street.

The cash for this mother of all bacchanals originally came from bonds issued by Goldman, which earned a whopping $600 million from the Malaysians. The bank charged prices for its bond issuance that analysts believe were suspiciously high – like a massage price that suggests you’re probably getting more than a massage.

Our esteemed former Prime Minister (Malcolm Turnbull) worked for Goldman Sachs for a long time, if that vampire squid dies it might be the cause for a bottle of champagne... Happy New Year everyone.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Arizona residents are extremely unhappy with self-driving cars being tested there and have been attacking them with rocks and baseball bats - Daily Beast

Angry Arizonians have spent the past year attacking Waymo’s self-driving cars, which are being tested in a city outside of Phoenix, in protest of the ever-increasing reach of artificial intelligence, according to a Monday report from The New York Times. Some have slashed tires, others have thrown rocks or tried to run the cars off the road—but in total, the Times reports, nearly two dozen Waymo vehicles have been attacked by locals in Chandler, Arizona, in the past two years.

“There are other places they can test,” one resident—who received a warning from police after allegedly trying to run Waymo vehicles off the road—told the paper. His wife, who also allegedly joined in on the attacks, noted that the couple’s 10-year-old was nearly struck by a self-driving car. “They said they need real-world examples, but I don’t want to be their real-world mistake,” the man added.

That wouldn’t be the first “real-world mistake” in the area, the Times notes—much of the animosity from Chandler’s residents comes from the fact that a self-driving Uber hit and killed a woman in Arizona this March. Waymo drivers told the Times that the company has been reluctant to prosecute the attacks on their cars for fear of interrupting testing—a claim that Waymo vehemently denies.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Quite a ripping monologue from Tucker Carlson this week on Foxnews about Market forces and the status quo.  Lots of this translates to Australia as well:
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-mitt-romney-supports-the-status-quo-but-for-everyone-else-its-infuriating
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Sydney and Melbourne's property slide accelerates even more with CoreLogic figures saying Sydney has fallen 1.86% month-on-month and Melbourne 1.96%. That's an astonishing -22.3% annualised for Sydney and -23.6% for Melbourne - obviously it won't stay that bad for long but it goes to show that the panic Josh Frydenburg has been exhibiting lately is not without cause... residential property is pretty much free-falling right now.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
New car sales also in free-fall, especially in NSW and VIC - New Daily;

National sales were down 14.9 per cent from the same month last year. Leading the falls, New South Wales plunged 19.7 per cent. Victoria dropped 17.9 per cent. Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief executive Tony Weber said new vehicle sales reflect “a challenging climate across the Australian economy including a slowing housing market, tightening of money lending and the drought”.

Looks like Labor will be taking office heading into a severe recession, nobody is spending money.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
New car sales also in free-fall, especially in NSW and VIC - New Daily;

National sales were down 14.9 per cent from the same month last year. Leading the falls, New South Wales plunged 19.7 per cent. Victoria dropped 17.9 per cent. Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief executive Tony Weber said new vehicle sales reflect “a challenging climate across the Australian economy including a slowing housing market, tightening of money lending and the drought”.

Looks like Labor will be taking office heading into a severe recession, nobody is spending money.
don_dunstan
Do you know how a "severe" recession is defined?

There is an economic downturn, although housing and car sales were some of the few sectors to have boomed since the GFC. The ASX200 took forever to reach its pre-GFC peak and has fallen back since. ASX Financials have performed abysmally.

Once again, it looks like Labor will win a booby prize election.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Do you know how a "severe" recession is defined?

There is an economic downturn, although housing and car sales were some of the few sectors to have boomed since the GFC. The ASX200 took forever to reach its pre-GFC peak and has fallen back since. ASX Financials have performed abysmally.

Once again, it looks like Labor will win a booby prize election.
Groundrelay
Well two quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession - but it's been technically impossible in Australia since about 2003 because we import 300,000 new consumers every year meaning that GDP is forced to keep growing by sheer weight of expanding numbers.

And yes, Labor will likely repeat the Scullin government's extraordinary bad timing taking office just as the sh*t hits the fan.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Calls today in my home state for a first-homeowners grant as a matter of urgency - building approvals have been falling for 14 months in a row and the construction industry is pleading with the Mashall government to stimulate building with large first-homeowners grants for new builds.

Also interested to see that "yellow vest" protesters in France have destroyed nearly 60% of the speed cameras across the country - via BBC:

The BBC's Hugh Schofield, in Paris, said evidence of the vandalism is visible to anyone driving around France, with radar cameras covered in paint or black tape to stop them working.

But the extent of the damage - now believed to affect more than half of all 3,200 speed cameras in the country's network - was unknown until Mr Castaner's statement on Thursday.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Quite a ripping monologue from Tucker Carlson this week on Foxnews about Market forces and the status quo.  Lots of this translates to Australia as well:
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-mitt-romney-supports-the-status-quo-but-for-everyone-else-its-infuriating
Carnot

He's not sure who he's angry with is he?

Lot's of finger pointing at imaginary elites.

As I may have said before, if people have a problem with 'the elites', Pol Pot had the answer for you Razz
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Ed Harry, Crabtree & Evylin and now Sumo Salad in administration (News.com.au);

IT’S the homegrown Australian fresh food favourite, promoted by the likes of Pete Evans and Steve “Commando” Willis, that hoped to be so successful it would be “biting at the heels” of McDonald’s by the early 2020s.

Now, the chain is desperately seeking a buyer to secure its future and that of hundreds of staff.

Last week, with little fanfare, Sumo Salad appointed insolvency specialists Ferrier Hodgson.

A key reason given for its move into voluntary administration was, cryptically, due to “legacy debts”. These are to thought to relate to crippling rents the chain has been lumbered with at Westfield shopping centres.

High rents are killing lots of businesses, a recent walk along the Toorak Road end of Chapel Street seems to confirm that.
  michaelgm Deputy Commissioner

IIRC, Westfield rental agreements include a component of revenue/turnover not profit. As well as other clauses such as revamping premises periodically.
Surprisingly there isn't a greater vacancy rate in their centres.perhaps that might change as bricks and mortar retail continues to struggle.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
IIRC, Westfield rental agreements include a component of revenue/turnover not profit. As well as other clauses such as revamping premises periodically.
Surprisingly there isn't a greater vacancy rate in their centres.perhaps that might change as bricks and mortar retail continues to struggle.
michaelgm
In China I found you had to pay at mall cashier using a receipt given by the shop, you then went back and picked up your goods.

I think the concept being that the Mall knows the turnover of each shop and charges rent accordingly.

10 yearly refurbishments of shops in malls I understand is pretty much standard most places to ensure the mall appearance doesn't "age".

Bricks and Mortar will survive through population growth of around existing malls/centers. End of the day, most people still buy their groceries from a supermarket and while there planned or impulse buying of other items occurs and places like K-mart and Bunnings are still places where people go for inspiration.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Foreign Investment Review Board decides that no Chinese company is really private - via Financial Review:

Australia's foreign investment regulator no longer believes private companies in China are free of Communist Party control, a move which has ensured all mainland takeovers are now subject to enhanced screening on national security grounds.

The move is a major departure from the philosophy under which the 2014 Free Trade Agreement was negotiated and is in response to the party tightening its grip on the economy and new laws compelling Chinese companies to hand over their information to authorities.

There's not really any such thing as private property in China either, it's about time our laws recognised this reality - they simply don't have the rule of law in that country as we do here.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
The Foreign Investment Review Board decides that no Chinese company is really private - via Financial Review:

Australia's foreign investment regulator no longer believes private companies in China are free of Communist Party control, a move which has ensured all mainland takeovers are now subject to enhanced screening on national security grounds.

The move is a major departure from the philosophy under which the 2014 Free Trade Agreement was negotiated and is in response to the party tightening its grip on the economy and new laws compelling Chinese companies to hand over their information to authorities.

There's not really any such thing as private property in China either, it's about time our laws recognised this reality - they simply don't have the rule of law in that country as we do here.
don_dunstan
How come this is a revelation? China hasn't had corporate 'private enterprise' since the revolution.
Likewise we expect companies here to abide by our laws and that includes handing over data to our government agencies. Our government gathers far more information now than it did one or two decades ago.

I can't see the point of this article because the government or more importantly those whose wealth relies on trade, would never allow anything to significantly impact that relationship.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
How come this is a revelation? China hasn't had corporate 'private enterprise' since the revolution.
Likewise we expect companies here to abide by our laws and that includes handing over data to our government agencies. Our government gathers far more information now than it did one or two decades ago.

I can't see the point of this article because the government or more importantly those whose wealth relies on trade, would never allow anything to significantly impact that relationship.
Groundrelay
Well because we should be treating all 'private enterprise' in China as if its an extension of the government - because in many cases they very much are behaving exactly how the CCP directs them. I'm not sure there's any degree of equivalency here; Huawei for example found to be operating at the very highest levels to be cooperating with CCP directives to harvest data from third party nations; why was nobody ever punished over that?

It's a really serious issue that warrants discussion - we signed ChAFTA with them allowing these 'companies' an extremely high lever of access and ingress into Australian commerce without considering the ramifications. Chinese ownership of the NSW power grid was rejected on advice from ASIO - why? What was their reasoning? Why were Huawei considered too much of a risk to the 5G network, why is the public not entitled to see the reasons why they were banned from tendering?

Ultimately it's a crazy Maoist dictatorship - STILL - and they could turn on us at any moment and without any provocation and we should be well prepared in case that happens.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The Foreign Investment Review Board decides that no Chinese company is really private - via Financial Review:

Australia's foreign investment regulator no longer believes private companies in China are free of Communist Party control, a move which has ensured all mainland takeovers are now subject to enhanced screening on national security grounds.

The move is a major departure from the philosophy under which the 2014 Free Trade Agreement was negotiated and is in response to the party tightening its grip on the economy and new laws compelling Chinese companies to hand over their information to authorities.

There's not really any such thing as private property in China either, it's about time our laws recognised this reality - they simply don't have the rule of law in that country as we do here.
don_dunstan
Ohh FFS Australia's foreign investment regulator is clearly inept and needs dismissal if it only just worked this out!

Go back the GFC and look at the lack of layoffs in the large private sector as the CEO's played to the Communist's party's tune of keep the workers happy. Paying people at least 50% of their salary to do nothing while CEO's worked for $0 if required.

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