2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
You (and everyone else here) should know by now that I am not a Tony Abbott fan, especially for his closure of the car industry which I think was abominable and incredibly short-sighted.
don_dunstan
Pick on Tony for a lot of things, but don't blame him for the car industry failing. Yes he didn't do a lot to save it, but there wasn't a great deal he could do anyway.

The decisions to close the Australian car industry were made in three places and there is little the Aust govt could do even if they were more proactive.

1) Detroit, Ford being going for years
2) White House, directive as part of bailout for GM, bring production home
3) Australian consumer who rather buy Audi's and other cars over the local products and even called the local product crap (a number of people I know moved to Aussie and were told by Aussies, Don't buy Australian cars).

Punitive tariffs tariffs just make the whole car fleet more costly, however I have no issue with reciprocal tariffs.

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  ANR Assistant Commissioner

The Falcon, Territory, and Commode,, and even the wide body Camry were great cars and ideal for long legged journeys, highly suited to our road conditions.

... Far greater than any so called European luxury cars...
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
RTT_Rules
So; we need a new piece of censorship because you reckon the voting public are all dills. Are you the inventor of the Nanny State?
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
No, just the ones west of 6 pm EST.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
So; we need a new piece of censorship because you reckon the voting public are all dills. Are you the inventor of the Nanny State?
Valvegear
So what you are saying is why shouldn't they just start count the votes immediately and publish the results as waiting to 6pm is censorship.

Just think of all the money we'd save, no late penalty rates, 8h of voting rather than 4-5 hr and hence more likely to get an outcome on the day.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
No, just the ones west of 6 pm EST.
Donald
Age of the internet, not practical. Just need a news blackout until 6pm Perth time.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
So what you are saying is why shouldn't they just start count the votes immediately and publish the results as waiting to 6pm is censorship.
"RTT_Rules"
Don't be so absurd; try reading and understanding plain, colloquial English.

Even you, half a world away, ought to have some idea of the fact that counting starts when the polling booth shuts. This allows all votes to be counted, scrutinised, and ballot papers accounted for. I don't know how much scrutineering you've done, but I did it for 35 years.
I am saying that government withholding of information after that process commences is censorship, and there's no need for it.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Pick on Tony for a lot of things, but don't blame him for the car industry failing. Yes he didn't do a lot to save it, but there wasn't a great deal he could do anyway.

The decisions to close the Australian car industry were made in three places and there is little the Aust govt could do even if they were more proactive.

1) Detroit, Ford being going for years
2) White House, directive as part of bailout for GM, bring production home
3) Australian consumer who rather buy Audi's and other cars over the local products and even called the local product crap (a number of people I know moved to Aussie and were told by Aussies, Don't buy Australian cars).

Punitive tariffs tariffs just make the whole car fleet more costly, however I have no issue with reciprocal tariffs.
RTT_Rules
Common knowledge that the car industry needed $500,000,000 to keep it going which is pin money really - the National Party diverted it to one of their pet projects and it was goodbye car industry.

Wages and living standards are falling and have been falling since 2012, especially the bottom half where incomes are back to where they were in 1992. Part of the problem is that the formerly strong working class don't have access to the jobs that allowed them to spend money and participate in society. Instead we have something like 1.5 million people under-employed and often below the poverty line, there's all sorts of measures suggesting poverty is getting worse.

Want to see the results of the steady off-shoring of all the good jobs? Look no further than the plummeting housing market, now reaching critical mass in every one of the five mainland capitals:

Sydney -10.88%
Melbourne -9.86%
Brisbane (inc Gold Coast)-1.91%
Adelaide +0.30%
Perth  -8.11%


If this keeps going (which it will) then the banks will tank and the government will probably have to acquire the superannuation pool to keep the nation going. It's all part of the process: We're transitioning to being a poor country like Brazil or South Africa where the majority don't have have jobs that they can sustain themselves with. It's the unravelling of the conditions that the unions fought so hard for us for in the 1890's-1920's... now we're going to be a relatively unequal and poor country for a while.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I totally agree with the no publishing of counting or even exit polls until the last polling booth has closed.
Why?

What other forms of censorship do you like?
In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
RTT_Rules
There is absolutely no reason to do what you're suggesting in a mature democracy like Australia.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
So what you are saying is why shouldn't they just start count the votes immediately and publish the results as waiting to 6pm is censorship.
Don't be so absurd; try reading and understanding plain, colloquial English.

Even you, half a world away, ought to have some idea of the fact that counting starts when the polling booth shuts. This allows all votes to be counted, scrutinised, and ballot papers accounted for. I don't know how much scrutineering you've done, but I did it for 35 years.
I am saying that government withholding of information after that process commences is censorship, and there's no need for it.
Valvegear
Well that's what you implied and you started the BS with taking my comments as censorship.

Who gives a crap about scrutineering, that's not what my original comment was about.

Before you hijacked the comment, it was simply about delaying publication of the results on the east and central areas until polls close in WA to prevent the current ongoing ridiculous situation of people still voting while results are being published.

The govt has press release freezes all the time. I believe the budget is one.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
There is absolutely no reason to do what you're suggesting in a mature democracy like Australia.
don_dunstan
So it makes perfect sense to you to have people sitting in Perth watching the count and then going, well I suppose we should go vote?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Common knowledge that the car industry needed $500,000,000 to keep it going which is pin money really - the National Party diverted it to one of their pet projects and it was goodbye car industry.

Wages and living standards are falling and have been falling since 2012, especially the bottom half where incomes are back to where they were in 1992. Part of the problem is that the formerly strong working class don't have access to the jobs that allowed them to spend money and participate in society. Instead we have something like 1.5 million people under-employed and often below the poverty line, there's all sorts of measures suggesting poverty is getting worse.

Want to see the results of the steady off-shoring of all the good jobs? Look no further than the plummeting housing market, now reaching critical mass in every one of the five mainland capitals:

Sydney -10.88%
Melbourne -9.86%
Brisbane (inc Gold Coast)-1.91%
Adelaide +0.30%
Perth  -8.11%


If this keeps going (which it will) then the banks will tank and the government will probably have to acquire the superannuation pool to keep the nation going. It's all part of the process: We're transitioning to being a poor country like Brazil or South Africa where the majority don't have have jobs that they can sustain themselves with. It's the unravelling of the conditions that the unions fought so hard for us for in the 1890's-1920's... now we're going to be a relatively unequal and poor country for a while.
don_dunstan
That's $500/car and rising as the sales of cares was in sharp decline dropping 10% per year for Holden and Ford models. Only Toyota was holding their own with export but in hindsight we now know this is also in decline as mid sized sedans are being dropped for SUV/4x4.

Note also remember Toyota's exports were just to increase the numbers to sustain production rates at reasonable levels as the Australian production line wasn't needed for the export products.

The problem was Don, they didn't want to stay here. The comment of chasing them down the road with a blank cheque wasn't wrong. Ford was offered money to make the Ranger here, they declined. Thailand and South Africa are far cheaper.

GM have now stopped production of the Cruz in Nth America so it was dying.

Ford Territory was probably a model that could have been developed, but Ford Global didn't want it, its biggest competition is the Edge, so for Ford its about making two cars almost the same. Ford's been going for years, it was always just a matter of time and we were lucky for it to last this long. GM CEO directed GM Australia to close. Toyota could not remain on their own.

Looking at future developments of Ford, they are now in the process of getting out of making sedans completely and likewise GM.

The industry simply didn't want to be here and how much money do we throw at them to stay to make cars we don't buy?


The issue for Australia is that we have the largest number of models available on any market. No where in the world do you have such choice, so the only way to sustain the industry is export, but we are simply too expensive. Even EU car manufacture is headed to eastern Europe with only high end models remaining in Germany etc.


Housing prices in Sydney need to drop to 20-25% before we achieve long term sustainable and affordable housing prices.
  michaelgm Deputy Commissioner

In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
There is absolutely no reason to do what you're suggesting in a mature democracy like Australia.
So it makes perfect sense to you to have people sitting in Perth watching the count and then going, well I suppose we should go vote?
RTT_Rules
If this is such an issue, and I don't believe it is. The whole joint should revert to Central Aust. Time for the purposes of a federal election.
The eastern states go later, and WA goes an earlier. All booths close simultaneously. Remember the age of the Internet and all.
May as well cease the distribution of how to vote documents too.
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

It takes at least 90 mins after the polls have closed for a trend to emerge, by which time Central Australian booths have closed and those in the West that haven't voted, and may be influenced by the Eastern results, have 30 minutes to get to a booth.

With pre-polling and postal vote numbers increasing at each election, there will be far less people that actually vote on the day.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
In what universe does it make sense that 10% of the population could be headed to the polls while the early results and occasionally the likely outcome be actually known?

Its simple, when Perth polls close, then the TV stations can start their broadcast and publish the exit and real count.
There is absolutely no reason to do what you're suggesting in a mature democracy like Australia.
So it makes perfect sense to you to have people sitting in Perth watching the count and then going, well I suppose we should go vote?
RTT_Rules
Yes, why would you think that's a problem?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
That's $500/car and rising as the sales of cares was in sharp decline dropping 10% per year for Holden and Ford models. Only Toyota was holding their own with export but in hindsight we now know this is also in decline as mid sized sedans are being dropped for SUV/4x4...
RTT_Rules
Your explanation as to why the car industry didn't survive is fair enough but it does nothing to moderate the falls in living standards that this country is experiencing; that's the knock-on problem that nobody has any solution for.

At the moment it's government deficit spending keeping the whole show afloat but at some stage this won't be an option any longer. Then what?
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Well that's what you implied and you started the BS with taking my comments as censorship.
"RTT_Rules"

You obviously have a problem with the English language. I did not imply any such thing and how can you can draw such an inference escapes me. It is simple - I disagreed with your original proposition, no more; no less.

Who gives a crap about scrutineering, that's not what my original comment was about.
"RTT_Rules"
You may not give a crap about scrutineering, but it's the way the system currently works. The fact that your original comment didn't mention it is irrelevant.  The release of voting figures cannot start from any booth until the process is complete. You may choose to ignore facts that don't suit you; I don't.

Before you hijacked the comment, it was simply about delaying publication of the results on the east and central areas until polls close in WA to prevent the current ongoing ridiculous situation of people still voting while results are being published.
RTT_Rules"
 So; I "highjacked the comment". I had the temerity to disagree with the great RTT. I am terribly sorry, Your Eminence. One day you'll learn two things - 1: This is a forum for discussion where disagreement is inevitable and 2: You don't set the rules.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I think Western Australian voters are quite accustomed to voting for themselves in accordance with the issues they face.

I would wager that substantially few (ie ‘no’) people in WA sit down in front of the TV watching the results come in and think ‘I better go and vote now’ - even if they did, within an hour or so of close in the east what results are they going to see? News just in, Antony Green tells us ‘Farrer and Wentworth are going blue, Watson and Batman are going red’ - Amazing!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Falcon, Territory, and Commode,, and even the wide body Camry were great cars and ideal for long legged journeys, highly suited to our road conditions.

... Far greater than any so called European luxury cars...
ANR
The real cost of these Bangkok utes isn't taken into account - you're much more likely to kill the occupants of another vehicle or a pedestrian if you collide with them due to the higher centre of gravity and they're bloody impossible to see over in car parks and at intersections.

Ford were going to build a high efficiency diesel engine at Geelong before Howard signalled they wouldn't pursue other nation's restrictive practices against our locally built cars - they all saw the writing on the wall and Ford cancelled the investment. How how different the outcome could have been had that gone ahead.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
That's $500/car and rising as the sales of cares was in sharp decline dropping 10% per year for Holden and Ford models. Only Toyota was holding their own with export but in hindsight we now know this is also in decline as mid sized sedans are being dropped for SUV/4x4...
Your explanation as to why the car industry didn't survive is fair enough but it does nothing to moderate the falls in living standards that this country is experiencing; that's the knock-on problem that nobody has any solution for.

At the moment it's government deficit spending keeping the whole show afloat but at some stage this won't be an option any longer. Then what?
don_dunstan
Don
Two points

Think of the jobs in the economy as  bell curve where on the X axis you have salaries in USD and Y the number of jobs. As the bell curve moved to the right (ie we earnt more in USD), jobs on the left ie lower income jobs exposed to export conditions started to fall off and relocate to the economies where the bell curve is far more to the left. There is an inherent cost in relocation so the market conditions have to favor the move longterm.

The car industry jobs in assembly, not design are those kinds of jobs that struggle in higher income economies without something to make it more favorable.

Living standards in Australia rose to an unsustainable level, this was no basic fundamental to sustain this rise and worse while we were there as a nation we slipped on productivity and Red Tape and with the mining income removed we are slipping back to our natural position. The low dollar and wage stagnation has prevented more job losses through off-shoring that we would have otherwise seen.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if we go back to 2003, before the boom when the economy was growing at a healthy rate and most industries in Australia were comfortably profitable and owning a brand new dual cab was not a god given right, look at your salary then in USD, factor in inflation and compare it where it was in last few years. If at any time your salary for the same job exceeded inflation and there was no productivity improvement, you are over paid and your job is at risk and today if you are still over the inflation adjusted 2003 number, be prepared for further wage deflation. Its that simple. The people I know getting wage rises are generally new industry jobs that have not been impacted by the mining boom for one reason or another.

Wage stagflation has affected most of the western countries and many emerging countries for the same reasons.

FYI: My employer UAE based recently went out for tender on a Industry 4.0 Planning IT type project. ALL of the serious contender finalists were Australian based companies or their Australian office of a foreign company. We are obviously doing something right.

On your last paragraph, I think you actually need to read the 2019-2020 budget papers and reported monthly balances of the Australian Fed budget for the last 6mths.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The Falcon, Territory, and Commode,, and even the wide body Camry were great cars and ideal for long legged journeys, highly suited to our road conditions.

... Far greater than any so called European luxury cars...
The real cost of these Bangkok utes isn't taken into account - you're much more likely to kill the occupants of another vehicle or a pedestrian if you collide with them due to the higher centre of gravity and they're bloody impossible to see over in car parks and at intersections.

Ford were going to build a high efficiency diesel engine at Geelong before Howard signalled they wouldn't pursue other nation's restrictive practices against our locally built cars - they all saw the writing on the wall and Ford cancelled the investment. How how different the outcome could have been had that gone ahead.
don_dunstan
The Hilux and other utes went to Thailand many years before and they didn't go there from Australia.

I think Howard saw the writing on the wall and how can you place a punitive tariff on Thailand on one companies product and not others if their products were never made here before hand.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Well that's what you implied and you started the BS with taking my comments as censorship.

You obviously have a problem with the English language. I did not imply any such thing and how can you can draw such an inference escapes me. It is simple - I disagreed with your original proposition, no more; no less.

Who gives a crap about scrutineering, that's not what my original comment was about.
You may not give a crap about scrutineering, but it's the way the system currently works. The fact that your original comment didn't mention it is irrelevant.  The release of voting figures cannot start from any booth until the process is complete. You may choose to ignore facts that don't suit you; I don't.

Before you hijacked the comment, it was simply about delaying publication of the results on the east and central areas until polls close in WA to prevent the current ongoing ridiculous situation of people still voting while results are being published.
 So; I "highjacked the comment". I had the temerity to disagree with the great RTT. I am terribly sorry, Your Eminence. One day you'll learn two things - 1: This is a forum for discussion where disagreement is inevitable and 2: You don't set the rules.
Valvegear
1. You raised and talked about scruntineering, I never did, nor did I propose anything to compromise it.

2. You raised the term censorship, I never did. I simply stated that the results be not published until the last booths closed in WA.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
ANR, please describe in detail your extensive knowledge of how Australian roads are so different to European roads.

You’ve never spent any time in Europe have you? You’ve never driven an Audi A7, A8, R8 or a Mercedes S class have you? Though the R8 is not really a luxury car, it’s a proper sports car.

I have done thousands of kilometres in those cars on European roads and highways across half a dozen countries. European ‘luxury’ vehicles, crap all over Australian so called ‘equivalents’, my father has a MY17 Holden Storm, the father in law did quite a few trips and kilometres in that when it was brand new, and whilst he liked it as a car he said his Audi was better - I agree.

My father drove his Storm from Adelaide to Perth and back, and it was a good trip apparently, but if he owned that and an Audi A7 I guarantee he would take the Audi.

There just is literally no comparison.

Perhaps not strangely the market agrees, ask yourself, is everyone buying a European car in Australia mistaken about it suitability here, or are you mistaken? When you’re one of the few, chances are you’re the one that’s incorrect.
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

People who buy eurolux cars generally don't do so to drive across the Nullarbor, put high kilometres on them, rather, they do the minimum kms and hand it back to the leasing company and lease the next one....
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
1. You raised and talked about scruntineering, I never did, nor did I propose anything to compromise it.
"RTT_Rules"
Well, no, you didn't; apart from saying that you don't give a crap about scrutineering. How anyone can propose a change, and declare my comments about the status quo to be inadmissible (or "highjacking the thread"), is something that only you could possibly understand.

2. You raised the term censorship, I never did. I simply stated that the results be not published until the last booths closed in WA.
RTT_Rules
Censorship is the word I chose to describe it. ( Censor (Oxford): official with power to suppress whole or parts of books, plays, films, news etc. [my emphasis] ) Hence, censorship; an accurate description of your suggestion. It's still censorship, even if it expires at a time of the censor's discretion.

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