I'd reckon the Frankston line would need the HCMTs more than the Sandringham line.
Also it would be 2023 when the 65th train is delivered for the Sunbury-Dandenong corridor.
So you are going too ahead of yourself.
You seem to have completely side stepped the capacity that will become available on day 1 operations of MM1, Current upgrades that are underway and planned on the network and the rumoured new timetable about to be introduced.
So with future population growth we can look at which lines will need high capacity trains for the future projected load and who needs then now
We can see the lines that will need HCMTs based on this growth and patronage data are the Mernda, Werribee, Cragieburn and Sandringham.
The first two, Mernda and Werribee will eventually run via Metro 2 and there will be a branch to Wollert so that takes care of itself. The Cragieburn Line is the most overcrowded and is growing so it needs HCMTs as well.
Based on statistics
Mernda (proportion of overcrowded services is 46%, will keep going up)
Werribee (proportion of overcrowd services is 47%, will keep going up)
Cragieburn (proportion of overcrowded services is 63%, that will keep going up)
Sandringham (proportion of overcrowded services is 47%)
Two of those lines Sandringham and Cragieburn have had little or no extra services added in quite a few years. This can address the issue and it will in the short term, look at the Frankston Line and the success with 10 Minute turn up and go. However, Peak Hour is crammed and even off peak is crowded on these lines above.
Pakenham, Sunbury and Cranbourne are getting the HCMTs, possibly Melton as well. We know about Mernda and the growth up there, we know about Werribee and the massive growth in that corridor.
If you look at annual patronage growth the Sandringham and Upfield Lines have the highest, excluding the Metro Tunnel candidates. The latter will obviously get extra services once Duplication and capacity opens up.
So next in line for HCMTs
- Werribee and Mernda (Metro 2 perhaps)
- Sandringham (and I can’t believe in saying that)
They're made in China, so........ And as for cheap crap? Well, trains don't exactly need to be made to withstand a crash anymore. Why? We don't crash them do we. This may be a hard point to swallow, but if planes were, then they'd never fly would they??? As for Xtraps, the spring suspension is probably their main detractor. To be honest if we didn't have a shizola track system, we probably wouldn't need any suspension on trains. However that's not the real world we're in is it. The real answer is whether the HCMT was designed/bought to a price or a standard??? That I don't know.
Any word on the street about the HCMT? They surely must be commencing testing soon.Gotta wait until after the April shutdown. They can't run past South Yarra just yet.
I believe that testing will begin sometime after the current occupation. Final signalling and power upgrades need to be completed between Caulfield and Flinders Street and also through the City Loop. So I would suspect sometime in May for testing and first revenue service end of June/July.They'll probably just keep the spares at Dandenong for a while? If the HCMTs are only coming online at one per month and all being stored at the new Pakenham facility, it's not like there will be mass displacement of them, not with major timetable increases being a long way off.
Tender document say that one we be delivered every month until the order is complete in 2023/24.
On a side note, do we know where the displaced Comengs will end up? Another stabling facility will need to be built to accommodate the 40 plus displaced sets.
No 2 is on the move tonight. Ex Newport 0030. Similar consist to last time: S, 22 flats, 2 Ts, the BVDY, the HCMT.Marcus Wong took the time to photograph this transfer, now posted to his website Marcus Wong. Train was hauled by an SSR B with S & T mid train otherwise as PIMM said it would be. One of the flats had a number of concrete sleepers on board; for the depot?
Probably to add mass for braking performance.No 2 is on the move tonight. Ex Newport 0030. Similar consist to last time: S, 22 flats, 2 Ts, the BVDY, the HCMT.Marcus Wong took the time to photograph this transfer, now posted to his website Marcus Wong. Train was hauled by an SSR B with S & T mid train otherwise as PIMM said it would be. One of the flats had a number of concrete sleepers on board; for the depot?
This one has seating installed and is already numbered which the first didn't have.