2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  9034 Train Controller

Cant believe this has taken so long.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politics-now-scott-morrison-to-unveil-newlook-cabinet/news-story/033942917a454b577251c42021062044


"Liberal MP Ken Wyatt says he is “incredibly honoured” to be named Australia’s first ever Aboriginal cabinet minister.
“Incredibly honoured to be the first Aboriginal Minister for Indigenous Australians, committed to working & walking together with our Elders, families & communities to ensure the greatness of our many nations is reflected in the greatness of our Australian nation, now and forever,” he tweeted."

Nice to see that he made it on merit and not a quota.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud


Bottom line is that it has to be paid for. Funny how within a week of the election, changes to GST are being floated.
First I have heard of this.  By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
9034
Morrison has already ruled it out (for now) but the ATO has floated the idea of GST applying to all packaged foods regardless of the amount of preparation. That was in Fairfax/Nine this weekend.

Personally I don't pay too much GST at the checkout because our household tends to cook rather than buy pre-prepared things.
  9034 Train Controller

By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Valvegear
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
9034
They ALL are, especially WA and the NT. Only NSW is technically doing okay at the moment but that's because they're still spending the $22 billion or so from their power privatisation ($7 billion on North-West Metro alone).
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
9034
... and as if the states will say 'no' to an increase. As Keating once said, never get between a Premier and a bucket of money.
  9034 Train Controller

By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
9034
Don't bother found it .

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-to-increase-and-expand-gst-20181015-p509p7.html

hmmm don't recognize the people asking for it as Liberal


"Australia's top economists, including Ken Henry, Chris Richardson, Miranda Stewart, John Freebairn, and Richard Highfield, have all called for it to be broadened.

Mr Frydenberg told Fairfax Media "the GST is set and we have no plans to lift it"

Looks like a labor beat up.
  9034 Train Controller

Jeeze Graham Richardson lays it on a bit thick

perhaps he should have given this advice to BS Bill Shorten before the election.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/easy-to-see-why-labor-failed/news-story/d848970e264e8eebdd4d2a9d532bf98e



"In hindsight it is easy to see why Labor failed to win the May 18 election. Promises of big new taxes will never work even if the revenue gained from these policies is put to the noblest of causes. Perhaps new leaders fancy themselves so much they believe they can change the course of history. The more courageous the policies the less likely they are to secure victory. Sir Humphrey certainly got that right. Therefore, it is always going to be more difficult for a party which styles itself as reformist to win elections in Australia. Since the end of WWII, Labor has been in power for only twenty odd years out of the last seventy-five years. It is a pretty miserable percentage."
 Edit


Perhaps even the noblest of causes is not worth the voter's employment.
  9034 Train Controller




Perhaps even the noblest of causes is not worth the voter's employment.
9034
Really, I should say the pretend noblest of someone else causes, is not worth the Voter's employment.
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

From the Australian Financial Review:

"This would breach the convention agreed to by the states and Commonwealth in 1999 in which there would be no changes to the GST without the agreement of all states and territories. But it is a convention only."
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Agreed, there's a downturn in the housing market at this time and the state budget will reflect that...to a degree. However as astounding as this may appear, Dan is honest and will honour election pledges and the infrastructure that MUST be built. It's a pity he had to play catch-up with the 4 lost years of the Liberal Coalition behind us.

The housing market will not remain in the doldrums and definitely shows signs of resurgence.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-correction-is-nearing-its-end-property-prices-will-soon-be-at-rock-bottom-says-hsbc-20190510-p51lxh.html

Mike.
Sydney and Melbourne's residential real estate losses have slowed - slightly. They currently sit at -10.8% and -10% respectively; Sydney is now down -15% since its peak and Melbourne about -13%. I don't think I believe HSBC's call of 'bottom' for the east coast market - the losses have slowed down but they're still there.

If Perth is anything to go by then there's at least another 2-3 years of falls. This time last year Perth's losses looked to have stopped altogether: Now they're back at -8.6% p/a. I'd expect prices locally will be erratic but will continue to fall nationally - even my own city of Adelaide (recently proclaimed by the Advertiser as being 'immune' from the national property slump) has fallen -0.5% in the last quarter.
don_dunstan
Sydney and Melbourne are not the same as Perth.

Perth suffered a mass migration out of the state. For prices to recover those people need to return as does employment.

Sydney and Melbourne do not suffer from migration away exceeding immigration. Stop building stuff for 6mths and see what happens.

The price reduction in S & M is the correction that had to have, we all know that, we all knew it was coming and we all knew it was expected at least 10% to as much as 25%. The feedback seems up to 20% for Sydney, bottoming late this year to mid 2020.

Adelaide was never immune, once Sydney became more affordable, the money stopped flowing.

As the whole prices rising and falling is basically a self fulling prof-icy, then the banks calling the bottom of the market will have the desired result if enough people believe it.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
... and as if the states will say 'no' to an increase. As Keating once said, never get between a Premier and a bucket of money.
don_dunstan
The problem agreeing to an increase is then they then need to face their own voters.

Qld, due for an election next year, Q1, Anna would be feeling a bit nervous after the Feds and Adani, so no time soon and if there is talk of GST rise, someone will ask her that question where she stands before the election.

After Qld, who's next and then next, then next?

ALP has long had a policy of anti-GST, ever since the LNP introduced the ALP's own policy, so agreeing to an increase is going to hurt at the coal face.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
From the Australian Financial Review:

"This would breach the convention agreed to by the states and Commonwealth in 1999 in which there would be no changes to the GST without the agreement of all states and territories. But it is a convention only."
kitchgp
So who will push for a change?

The Fed's, no, they get nothing and will want to avoid any fallout in trying to do so. Their electrol margin is too slim. When Howard put his gonads on the line taking the GST to the polls and nearly lost from a strong majority.

The next Premier to go to an election?
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

Cant believe this has taken so long.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politics-now-scott-morrison-to-unveil-newlook-cabinet/news-story/033942917a454b577251c42021062044


"Liberal MP Ken Wyatt says he is “incredibly honoured” to be named Australia’s first ever Aboriginal cabinet minister.
“Incredibly honoured to be the first Aboriginal Minister for Indigenous Australians, committed to working & walking together with our Elders, families & communities to ensure the greatness of our many nations is reflected in the greatness of our Australian nation, now and forever,” he tweeted."

Nice to see that he made it on merit and not a quota.
9034
It is also not his first ministerial appointment. He did as good a job as could be hoped for with the poisoned chalice of Assistant Minister (i.e. take flak for the minister) for Health.

He later picked up the roles of Minister for Aged Care and Minister for Indigenous Health. One person I know who works for a NGO which works with seniors a lot has only positive things to say about his interaction with the aged care sector.

It is good, I think, for repudiating any allegations of tokenism that he comes to the Indigenous Affairs portfolio after having held a couple of other appointments on merit.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Sydney and Melbourne are not the same as Perth.

Perth suffered a mass migration out of the state. For prices to recover those people need to return as does employment.

Sydney and Melbourne do not suffer from migration away exceeding immigration. Stop building stuff for 6mths and see what happens.

The price reduction in S & M is the correction that had to have, we all know that, we all knew it was coming and we all knew it was expected at least 10% to as much as 25%. The feedback seems up to 20% for Sydney, bottoming late this year to mid 2020.

Adelaide was never immune, once Sydney became more affordable, the money stopped flowing.

As the whole prices rising and falling is basically a self fulling prof-icy, then the banks calling the bottom of the market will have the desired result if enough people believe it.
RTT_Rules
But despite the fact that the minerals and energy boom became resurgent, iron ore back to almost record prices - we have no resurgence in the Perth property market.

What are the drivers in Sydney and Melbourne for the housing job to turn around? Migrants don't usually have much money when they get here and despite the fact that they may arrive on a 'skilled' visa they often end up in service industry jobs depressing the wages market for the rest of us. The last seven years have seen the average worker lose about 5% of their wage buying power, how can these people be expected to deliver renewed prosperity for the national housing market even if there's another three interest rate cuts in the pipeline (as Westpac has forecast)?

Don't worry though, ScoMo is the ultimate real-estate Prime Minister, I'm sure he's going to come to the rescue with a whole lot of goodies especially for first home-suckers... err, I mean buyers.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Clearly 9034 you are not a Victorian. Smile

M.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Sydney and Melbourne are not the same as Perth.

Perth suffered a mass migration out of the state. For prices to recover those people need to return as does employment.

Sydney and Melbourne do not suffer from migration away exceeding immigration. Stop building stuff for 6mths and see what happens.

The price reduction in S & M is the correction that had to have, we all know that, we all knew it was coming and we all knew it was expected at least 10% to as much as 25%. The feedback seems up to 20% for Sydney, bottoming late this year to mid 2020.

Adelaide was never immune, once Sydney became more affordable, the money stopped flowing.

As the whole prices rising and falling is basically a self fulling prof-icy, then the banks calling the bottom of the market will have the desired result if enough people believe it.
But despite the fact that the minerals and energy boom became resurgent, iron ore back to almost record prices - we have no resurgence in the Perth property market.

What are the drivers in Sydney and Melbourne for the housing job to turn around? Migrants don't usually have much money when they get here and despite the fact that they may arrive on a 'skilled' visa they often end up in service industry jobs depressing the wages market for the rest of us. The last seven years have seen the average worker lose about 5% of their wage buying power, how can these people be expected to deliver renewed prosperity for the national housing market even if there's another three interest rate cuts in the pipeline (as Westpac has forecast)?

Don't worry though, ScoMo is the ultimate real-estate Prime Minister, I'm sure he's going to come to the rescue with a whole lot of goodies especially for first home-suckers... err, I mean buyers.
don_dunstan
Did you actually understand what the previous boom was all about?

It's often labelled a "Mining Boom", but it was actually a "Mining construction boom". WA is digging more dirt today, they just don't have 50,000 (what ever the number) people working on various new projects building all sorts of crap not involved with actual day to day mining production.

Migrants still need a roof over their head and if you take time to read the immigration requirements, money is something they must have, the older, the more you must have.

Middle professional sector salaries world wide have been parallalised or even in decline.
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

So who will push for a change?

The Fed's, no, they get nothing and will want to avoid any fallout in trying to do so. Their electrol margin is too slim. When Howard put his gonads on the line taking the GST to the polls and nearly lost from a strong majority.

...................................................
RTT_Rules

The Commonwealth can benefit by abolishing some or all of the existing funding agreements between the Commonwealth and the states and territories, eg $4 billion for Victoria's East-West Link. The GST sharing arrangements are not enshrined in the Constitution so they can be changed relatively easily.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Did you actually understand what the previous boom was all about?

It's often labelled a "Mining Boom", but it was actually a "Mining construction boom". WA is digging more dirt today, they just don't have 50,000 (what ever the number) people working on various new projects building all sorts of crap not involved with actual day to day mining production.
RTT_Rules
No need to be patronising; I'm just wondering out aloud what it will take for the Perth residential property market to turn around. Because it seems to me that a five year plus slump might well be what the other capital cities are all in for too.

Do you think the banking system would survive that long, slow bleed of capital? I don't, I think taxpayers will have to socialise the losses.
Migrants still need a roof over their head and if you take time to read the immigration requirements, money is something they must have, the older, the more you must have.

Middle professional sector salaries world wide have been parallalised or even in decline.
RTT_Rules

You only need thirty grand to get a course that will lead to residency, it's a multi-step process. The flow of money being stolen out of China has apparently ceased now - I can't possibly imagine that migrants working in service industry jobs are going to rescue the housing bust.

As it stands right now one in four land sales on Melbourne's fringes are in distress (Financial Review) - lots of people have placed their blocks on Gumtree having lost their deposits. Think that it'll get better anytime soon with so many people stuck in low wage jobs?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
"Climate science" proponents don't realise they're living in a bubble - the rest of the nation doesn't agree with them: Ross Elliot, New Geography:

“We may have to declare war on Queensland,” said Mike Carlton – a former high profile national political journalist. (He was blaming the result on Queensland voters who resoundingly abandoned Labor and the climate agenda).

Former media columnist Clementine Ford was “crying over the climate destroyed, smeg world Australian voters are determined to leave (to her children).”

Another former journalist – Margo Kingston – who led an alliance of left leaning independent candidates campaigning on climate change declared “It is over. My idea of Australia is over. So be it. I’m retiring and having a life while it’s left.”

And Jane Caro – a feminist green social commentator, writer and lecturer – said “If the LNP wins we have decided to be a backward looking country in a backwater. I wish I was a New Zealander.” Much like many US Democrats who reportedly wanted to escape to Canada in the aftermath of Trump’s win?

The sentiments echo the now notoriously derisive 2013 comments from noted Sydney Morning Herald urban affairs writer Elizabeth Farrelly (who lives in trendy inner city Redfern in Sydney), who once described the suburbs of Australia in the following terms:

“The suburbs are about boredom, and obviously some people like being bored and plain and predictable, I’m happy for them … even if their suburbs are destroying the world.”

Margo Kingston in particular; I've read a few of her books and I didn't think she was given to hyperbole like that.

The world will NOT end; 'climate change' is NOT the greatest challenge of our time - getting meaningful, stable jobs for Aussies is.
  kitchgp Deputy Commissioner

Climate science" proponents don't realise they're living in a bubble - the rest of the nation doesn't agree with them: Ross Elliot, New Geography:.......................... https://www.newgeography.com/content/006307-trouble-bubble-down-under
don_dunstan


Interesting photo. Does his wife not know how to vote? Sums up the LNP’s attitude to women.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.
Then quote the reference.    Or is it a figment of your imagination.   GST  cannot change without the approval of the states.

Who has run short of money?
They ALL are, especially WA and the NT. Only NSW is technically doing okay at the moment but that's because they're still spending the $22 billion or so from their power privatisation ($7 billion on North-West Metro alone).
don_dunstan
The NW Metro is $5.5B (I think) and funded by other means before the privatisation.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
So who will push for a change?

The Fed's, no, they get nothing and will want to avoid any fallout in trying to do so. Their electrol margin is too slim. When Howard put his gonads on the line taking the GST to the polls and nearly lost from a strong majority.

...................................................

The Commonwealth can benefit by abolishing some or all of the existing funding agreements between the Commonwealth and the states and territories, eg $4 billion for Victoria's East-West Link. The GST sharing arrangements are not enshrined in the Constitution so they can be changed relatively easily.
kitchgp
Yes and I agree, but the voter will just see it as a tax increase and blame the Feds. Last time the states were supposed to abolish some fees, levy's and other, but never did. The opposition will pick up on this.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Did you actually understand what the previous boom was all about?

It's often labelled a "Mining Boom", but it was actually a "Mining construction boom". WA is digging more dirt today, they just don't have 50,000 (what ever the number) people working on various new projects building all sorts of crap not involved with actual day to day mining production.
No need to be patronising; I'm just wondering out aloud what it will take for the Perth residential property market to turn around. Because it seems to me that a five year plus slump might well be what the other capital cities are all in for too.

Do you think the banking system would survive that long, slow bleed of capital? I don't, I think taxpayers will have to socialise the losses.
Migrants still need a roof over their head and if you take time to read the immigration requirements, money is something they must have, the older, the more you must have.

Middle professional sector salaries world wide have been parallalised or even in decline.

You only need thirty grand to get a course that will lead to residency, it's a multi-step process. The flow of money being stolen out of China has apparently ceased now - I can't possibly imagine that migrants working in service industry jobs are going to rescue the housing bust.

As it stands right now one in four land sales on Melbourne's fringes are in distress (Financial Review) - lots of people have placed their blocks on Gumtree having lost their deposits. Think that it'll get better anytime soon with so many people stuck in low wage jobs?
don_dunstan
Well you refered to the Mining Boom

Look up the housing down turn post 1989 collapse, Sydney took longest, about 7 years to return to pre peak levels.

Perth is a small isolated city subject to significant market forces that affect the housing market. It doesn't have a huge immigration attraction or even domestic migration. SE corner moves north to retire, not west. Perth's natural population growth is small and it simply needs to grow to absorb the excess stock. Of course remember, was $550,000 median house price or ever it was a sustainable price in the first place based on land availability, price etc? If not, then it may take years for inflation to catch up.

East Coast is different, but I don't see Sydney returning to $1M median house price for years either. Again inflation is too low, flatish economy, lower immigration, excess apartment stock then above inflation prices rises could be a thing of the past for sometime. But once the bottom has been reached, then with every year passing the number of owners in negative equity decreases. Happened before, will happen again.

I also think the sharemarket will be the target for investors for sometime. The realestate market was stealingmuch of the investment such that growth in shares was flat, ie the ASX has been hovering around 6500 points for sometime, the same it was prior to GFC and slowly crawled back to 5000, then 6000 points. With investor cash flow away from the housing industry, it will be channeled in something else, ie stock market.

As you said, with low wage growth, then a devalued flat housing market is a good thing for new buyers.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Cant believe this has taken so long.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politics-now-scott-morrison-to-unveil-newlook-cabinet/news-story/033942917a454b577251c42021062044


"Liberal MP Ken Wyatt says he is “incredibly honoured” to be named Australia’s first ever Aboriginal cabinet minister.
“Incredibly honoured to be the first Aboriginal Minister for Indigenous Australians, committed to working & walking together with our Elders, families & communities to ensure the greatness of our many nations is reflected in the greatness of our Australian nation, now and forever,” he tweeted."

Nice to see that he made it on merit and not a quota.
It is also not his first ministerial appointment. He did as good a job as could be hoped for with the poisoned chalice of Assistant Minister (i.e. take flak for the minister) for Health.

He later picked up the roles of Minister for Aged Care and Minister for Indigenous Health. One person I know who works for a NGO which works with seniors a lot has only positive things to say about his interaction with the aged care sector.

It is good, I think, for repudiating any allegations of tokenism that he comes to the Indigenous Affairs portfolio after having held a couple of other appointments on merit.
justapassenger
I think Ken Wyatt deliberately avoided the early move into Minister for Indigenous Australians precisely to avoid implications of tokenism. I too believe he is to be applauded for that and his eventual appointment to his new ministerial position, well earned.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Did you actually understand what the previous boom was all about?

It's often labelled a "Mining Boom", but it was actually a "Mining construction boom". WA is digging more dirt today, they just don't have 50,000 (what ever the number) people working on various new projects building all sorts of crap not involved with actual day to day mining production.
No need to be patronising; I'm just wondering out aloud what it will take for the Perth residential property market to turn around. Because it seems to me that a five year plus slump might well be what the other capital cities are all in for too.

Do you think the banking system would survive that long, slow bleed of capital? I don't, I think taxpayers will have to socialise the losses.
Migrants still need a roof over their head and if you take time to read the immigration requirements, money is something they must have, the older, the more you must have.

Middle professional sector salaries world wide have been parallalised or even in decline.

You only need thirty grand to get a course that will lead to residency, it's a multi-step process.
don_dunstan
It's still a lot more than that! Where is the migrant coming from? Sure, $30k might be the cost of the study component, but they have to pick a field of study that can lead to residency, some cost much more than that. In order to 'stay' at the end of their study the migrant also needs a permanent job in their field. Know how hard it is to get a permanent job in a relevant field when you are holding only a temporary visa?

On top of the cost of the study component, there are also the day to day living expenses during that study period.

Dependent on where the student is from, there is still the need to pass IELTS (or similar) to a minimum level 6 in each category - especially for those studying in fields like economics, accounting, teaching, anything relating to patient contact like medicine, dentistry, nursing, even social work and counselling.

The cost of the testing and the associated tutoring for IELTS can also easily top multiple thousands. For those of us here who have never had to sit an IELTS, to get a 6 score in each topic is a task that many posting here could simply not achieve.

The worst bit is, the testing is done over something like six hours IN ONE DAY, and when you receive your results the only feedback you get is 'comprehension 5.5' or 'written skills 5.0' with no advice of what you did well, wrong or otherwise.

The candidates are given no advice on how to improve, and their submissions are not returned.

It's just 'pay your tutor some more' then 'pay us again to re-sit', 'good luck'. I would be very surprised if even native speaking candidates from English speaking countries pass IELTS to a level 6 first try, few such would pass it on their second.

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