2019 budget will commit $100 million to extend Melbourne's Metro train network

 
  mm42 Chief Train Controller

The government were no doubt spooked by not having a Federal Labour government contribute to Melbourne Metro 1, so had to reign in lots of other nice sounding expenditure. Unfortunately all the proposed frequency increases would need some level of subsidy. The Parliamentary Budget Office estimated a gold standard version of a 10 minute frequency on all lines until I think 9pm, and this required an annual increase in subsidy of $200m per year. While revenue increased through increased patronage it was well short of the operating costs.

The increase in patronage was estimated by a model from Infrastructure Australia, and was not compared with actual data from the increases in frequency in Melbourne on the Dandenong line and Frankston line in 2009, nor was it compared with the recent frequency increases in Sydney. The model most likely uses a"headway elasticity" of 0.5, meaning that a doubling of headway from 20 minutes to 10 minutes would increase patronage by 50% (based on the linked paper below). So the operating costs would double, patronage increase by 50% and if fares cover only half the operating costs, fare income would increase by only 25%. Government therefore covers 75% of the costs and fares 25%.

It would be good to get a finer level of detail on this relationship. I expect stations closer to the CBD would be more responsive to increased headway  (ie elasticity more than 0.5), and outer urban stations less responsive because they are less economically connected with the CBD for services. There may be cases where the elasticity exceeds 1.0. The latter are clearly the best areas to increase service headway.

If say only $50 m/year could be found to increase frequency, what do you think the top priorities would be for increased headway?

1. Sunbury line interpeak from 20 to 10 minutes interpeak as far as Sydenham (benefits transferring passengers from buses at Footscray and Sunshine)
2. Craigieburn line from 20 to 10 minutes interpeak as far as Broadmeadows (benefits areas of residential intensification particularly Essendon and closer; these are likely to be good fare payers)
3. Mernda line as far as say Reservoir from 20 to 10 minutes interpeak (again benefits areas of intensification Preston and closer)
4. Ringwood trains from 15 minutes interpeak to 10 minutes
5. Any other ideas? How far down this list would $50m/year extend?

https://www.vtpi.org/tranelas.pdf

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  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
If you're looking for a price tag @mm42 and @others for the increase frequency to Sunbury et al, try reading the budget.

"$195 million for extra train services across Victoria, including increases to some of our busiest metrpolitan train lines".

That sounds awfully like more trains per hour on many lines, in the next 48 months.

cheers
John
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

I would assume RPV is referring to the Melton spark going into the MM1, it's shown in the business case of the MM1 of a potential Melton spark able to use the capacity of the tunnel.
That is not what they are referring to. As Lockie says, the line that initially uses the Metro Tunnel alongside the Sunbury Line will be whichever from Western Rail is completed first, whether that is Melton or Wyndham Vale. This does not mean it will always be that line using Metro Tunnel. They do not yet know what order they will be coming online - that is the purpose of this planning.
TOQ-1
A bit late to the reply, but I was referring to this diagram.

Found in this document: https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/40481/MM-Business-Case-Feb-2016-APPENDIX-04.PDF

  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Cragieburn, Werribee, Mernda and Sandringham Lines could do with a 10 Minute all day Frequency alongside the Sunbury Line
ptvcommuter



https://youtu.be/hFDcoX7s6rE

Mike.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
That too could be said about your Mildura service Mike Smile
  Lockie91 Train Controller

@True Believer

That is originally what was planned. But remember the metro tunnel was conceived way before WRP and when Melbourne’s growth was expected to hit 8 million by 2050. That’s was way off, with it happening quite a few decades earlier. Hence the government for once try to get ahead of the ball. MM1/MARL/SRL/WRP AND HSR to the regions.

What RPV has said is what ever is completed first will going into MM1 with Sunbury to utilise the available train paths. Just because it goes into MM1 in 2025 doesn’t mean it will remain there post MARL AND WRP completion.

Be realistic, Melton or WV Will both need at least a 5 minute peak frequency. 6TPH was never going to cut it.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
That too could be said about your Mildura service Mike Smile
Dangersdan707

Speaking of which, I'm heading home next weekend..
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
@True Believer

That is originally what was planned. But remember the metro tunnel was conceived way before WRP and when Melbourne’s growth was expected to hit 8 million by 2050. That’s was way off, with it happening quite a few decades earlier. Hence the government for once try to get ahead of the ball. MM1/MARL/SRL/WRP AND HSR to the regions.

What RPV has said is what ever is completed first will going into MM1 with Sunbury to utilise the available train paths. Just because it goes into MM1 in 2025 doesn’t mean it will remain there post MARL AND WRP completion.

Be realistic, Melton or WV Will both need at least a 5 minute peak frequency. 6TPH was never going to cut it.
Lockie91
come on @Lockie91 , never let a few facts get in the way of a pet opinion.

1. The business case (read it, page 15 @TrueBelievers gave a link above) is clear. 9TPH from Melton funneled into the MM1.
If you want to substitute WDV then fine, it's still 9TPH.

2. West Rail plan is all about quadding both Melton and WDV.
The problem with crowding at WDV is not so much frequent trains.
Rather by the time the train arrives at WDV it's already full by those pesky Geelong people.
With WRP at WDV station, there will be Vline 6-9 (set down only) TPH PLUS Metro 6-9 TPH. (that's potentially 3 minute peak)

Same potential story for Melton

Then we add MARL/SRL into the mix.
Sunshine to City (and beyond) is needing more paths with with each new rail announcement, which will make next years Business Cases (plural) very interesting reading.

cheers
John
  Lockie91 Train Controller

@justarider it’s widely accepted that the long term full capacity will be completely used by Sunbury Services. As I said keep in mind that the biz case for MM1 was published in December 2011. It predicted Melbournes population would hit 5 million in 2030 (Page 28) Our current population is 4.5 Million some 20 years earlier than expected.

Set down does not count towards peak direction frequency. Saying Geelong trains will add frequency is silly. Both WDV AND Melton will need at least 12TPH day one. Plus room for additional growth. Ultimately both these lines will need 24TPH in the future. MM1 is not going to cater for that.

WRP and MARL are two long term solutions for WDV/Melton and additional track capacity between Sunshine and the CBD
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

@justarider it’s widely accepted that the long term full capacity will be completely used by Sunbury Services. As I said keep in mind that the biz case for MM1 was published in December 2011. It predicted Melbournes population would hit 5 million in 2030 (Page 28) Our current population is 4.5 Million some 20 years earlier than expected.

Set down does not count towards peak direction frequency. Saying Geelong trains will add frequency is silly. Both WDV AND Melton will need at least 12TPH day one. Plus room for additional growth. Ultimately both these lines will need 24TPH in the future. MM1 is not going to cater for that.

WRP and MARL are two long term solutions for WDV/Melton and additional track capacity between Sunshine and the CBD
Lockie91
Tend to agree with JAR here. West Werribee-Deer Park line potential catchment is essentially captured by City of Wyndham.

Current working population is 100,000: 30,000 employed in Melbourne, Maribyrnong, Brimbank combined. Suppose that doubles in 20 years to 60,000.

Even assuming ludicrously high 40% mode share across these trips (suppose we spend a bucket on feeder buses too) that's just 24,000 people to move in a two-hour peak - 8tph with 1500 per train.

Don't forget the Werribee line too potentially offering a more direct route with a cheap and short extension.

Melton is a similar story.
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
@justarider it’s widely accepted that the long term full capacity will be completely used by Sunbury Services. As I said keep in mind that the biz case for MM1 was published in December 2011. It predicted Melbournes population would hit 5 million in 2030 (Page 28) Our current population is 4.5 Million some 20 years earlier than expected.

Set down does not count towards peak direction frequency. Saying Geelong trains will add frequency is silly. Both WDV AND Melton will need at least 12TPH day one. Plus room for additional growth. Ultimately both these lines will need 24TPH in the future. MM1 is not going to cater for that.

WRP and MARL are two long term solutions for WDV/Melton and additional track capacity between Sunshine and the CBD
Lockie91
"widely accepted" , don't think so.
Sunbury line on it's own bigger than Dandenong/Pakenham/Cranbourne lines - only in your dreams.

There is no dispute that the West is growing, but has a LOOOONG way to go to catch up the North, East and South

BTW, the Service Plan is 2016, which does reflect the changes since the original 2011 proposal. Especially the Extended Program bit.

Perhaps I didn't express myself well enough for you. The word "frequency" is a distraction, the issue is capacity.
All the places that Geelong passengers do NOT take on the Metro HCMT trains are available for WDV pax.

HCMT  (1380 pax) at WDV and Melton have 3 times the capacity of an exiting Vlocity train (444 pax).

Put your 24TPH @ WDV into perspective.
That's 33,000+ pax getting on at WDV/Tarneit per hour - really that's like the crush at MCG. The platform would be 30 deep.

cheers
John
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

@justarider it’s widely accepted that the long term full capacity will be completely used by Sunbury Services. As I said keep in mind that the biz case for MM1 was published in December 2011. It predicted Melbournes population would hit 5 million in 2030 (Page 28) Our current population is 4.5 Million some 20 years earlier than expected.

Set down does not count towards peak direction frequency. Saying Geelong trains will add frequency is silly. Both WDV AND Melton will need at least 12TPH day one. Plus room for additional growth. Ultimately both these lines will need 24TPH in the future. MM1 is not going to cater for that.

WRP and MARL are two long term solutions for WDV/Melton and additional track capacity between Sunshine and the CBD
"widely accepted" , don't think so.
Sunbury line on it's own bigger than Dandenong/Pakenham/Cranbourne lines - only in your dreams.

There is no dispute that the West is growing, but has a LOOOONG way to go to catch up the North, East and South

BTW, the Service Plan is 2016, which does reflect the changes since the original 2011 proposal. Especially the Extended Program bit.

Perhaps I didn't express myself well enough for you. The word "frequency" is a distraction, the issue is capacity.
All the places that Geelong passengers do NOT take on the Metro HCMT trains are available for WDV pax.

HCMT  (1380 pax) at WDV and Melton have 3 times the capacity of an exiting Vlocity train (444 pax).

Put your 24TPH @ WDV into perspective.
That's 33,000+ pax getting on at WDV/Tarneit per hour - really that's like the crush at MCG. The platform would be 30 deep.

cheers
John
justarider
To be fair, the 444 is seats, not crush load, so it's probably not quite "triple". But yes, the capacity of VLo sets is a big constraint that's being undersold here; and the perceptions of "packed" trains coming out of WV/Tarneit are partly to to the abysmal dwell times and standing comfort of the sets.

The annual load surveys were extended to WV this year too, and hopefully they'll be published with the Metro ones so we can properly compare. But for now, consider that the combined WV/Tarneit patronage of 1.4m works out to maybe 4000-6000 weekday peak passengers. Once they get empty trains (even at 6tph) to themselves, you'll be able to kick the footy through the carriages for the first couple of stops.
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
Good pickup today.

If sunshine will be a super centre I hope they are building 2 Sg platforms for access.

A link from Werribee to the RFR should be a priority to remove crowding to the city on V/Line.
What? you think the overland is going to be stopping there!
Dangersdan707
belated response DD.

Omitting SG platform at Sunshine was clearly dum.

It needs to be rectified so that the Albury pax (vline and XPT) can use Sunshine - MARL, Regional, MM1. And Vice versa.

cheers
John
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
Once they get empty trains (even at 6tph) to themselves, you'll be able to kick the footy through the carriages for the first couple of stops.
potatoinmymouth
I prefer indoor cricket myself. A straight drive past the bowler to the fence 100m away, would keep the boys entertained.

cheers
John
  Lockie91 Train Controller

@JAR

You counting two out of a possible five station to be built along the RRL corridor and a continued 30+ years of housing development to fill it all in. Yes right now today, 24 TPH for two stations is ludicrous, in 30 years time when an additional 200K have infilled the area it’s not so far stretched. This is similar for Melton, today’s it’s sitting around 50K not a huge catchment. Factor in Toolen, Cobblebank and Deer Park which currently have a few thousand residents combined but expected growth near on a 100K.

Geelong will not be using RRL post WRP so factoring it into track or platform capacity at WDV is irrelevant.

@PIMM, that’s is just employment areas. One of the most difficult things that the government tries to do is estimate everyone else. It’s easy to this area will employ 100K and work out mode share form there. It’s harder to work out everyone else that uses PT. People heading to education, appointments, shopping or recreational.

A good example of this is the roll out of 10 minute all day frequencies. You’ll find a good proportion of inter peak trains quite full with those not at work going about there business during the day.

Something that many have trouble doing is thinking what we might need in 20 years or more and what the implications of today’s projects will have then. The city loop is a prime example, it was touted as a waste of many and took over 10 years to get of the ground. Could we imagine Melbourne with out it today.
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.

Geelong will not be using RRL post WRP so factoring it into track or platform capacity at WDV is irrelevant.
Lockie91
WHAAA ???

So we are going to have 4 tracks thru WDV, none of which carry Geelong pax ????
I want to have some of what she's having.
Sally's spectator

cheers
John
  Lockie91 Train Controller

@JAR

Where did 4 track pairs come from?

WDV to retain the current RRL track pair. Geelong to get a new track pair as part of the WRP. Which i imagine will be tied up with HSR and the $2B Scomo is dangling in front of Dan. Just 2 track pairs. SRL to use RRL to West Werribee. (Which is a great short term solution to getting those pesky WDV pax off Geelong trains)
The government can tick the western SRL box with really doing much.

Similar story for Melton, with essentially pre sparking works almost complete as part of the BLU. It’s a matter of traction power and stabling for HCMTS or whatever will run out there. Once again I imagine that a new track pair from Melton for regional services tied up in the governments HSR to the regions plan.
  res1psaloqu1tur Station Staff

@Lockie91

Have you got a source for the Melton pre-sparks being completed as part of BLU? I'm curious
  justarider Chief Train Controller

Location: Stuck on VR and hoping for better.
@JAR

Where did 4 track pairs come from?

WDV to retain the current RRL track pair. Geelong to get a new track pair as part of the WRP. Which i imagine will be tied up with HSR and the $2B Scomo is dangling in front of Dan. Just 2 track pairs. SRL to use RRL to West Werribee. (Which is a great short term solution to getting those pesky WDV pax off Geelong trains)
The government can tick the western SRL box with really doing much.

Similar story for Melton, with essentially pre sparking works almost complete as part of the BLU. It’s a matter of traction power and stabling for HCMTS or whatever will run out there. Once again I imagine that a new track pair from Melton for regional services tied up in the governments HSR to the regions plan.
Lockie91
so we are in furious agreement !

Did NOT say "4 track pairs" I said "4 tracks".

Your take on the WRP is  2 tracks (ex RRL) to WDV plus a 2 new tracks to Geelong. = 4 tracks.
When/if that Geelong pair becomes electric HSR is irrelevant to how the WDV Metro is used.

I still make it 4 tracks at WDV, and there must be some passenger interchange.
Otherwise all Geelong passenger are going express to ??Sunshine?? and some have to go up to 5 stations backwards to their real destination.

My point is still, that the new High Capacity Metro line (ONE PAIR) will be exclusive for WDV up,
instead of Medium/Mediocre Capacity for WDV plus Geelong. A Massive improvement.

And this is still all hypothetical.  
Melton sparks first is the more likely - same issues with different start point, same destination.
Melton have been waiting 40 years, unlike the much more recent werribee suburbs.

chers
John
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

@PIMM, that’s is just employment areas. One of the most difficult things that the government tries to do is estimate everyone else. It’s easy to this area will employ 100K and work out mode share form there. It’s harder to work out everyone else that uses PT. People heading to education, appointments, shopping or recreational.

A good example of this is the roll out of 10 minute all day frequencies. You’ll find a good proportion of inter peak trains quite full with those not at work going about there business during the day.
Lockie91

Obviously there are other uses. But by far the main users of public transport in peak are journey to work (and school, admittedly) users. Hence why I used that data. We are talking about peak allocations here.

Nitpick about exact numbers all you like, but 12tph to WV via Werribee (even without MM2) and 10tph via Sunshine by 2030 would give the City of Wyndham, population maybe 300,000 by that point, capacity for 60,000 residents to catch the train to the CBD in peak, an enormous number. At that point it’s clearly no longer the highest transport priority.
  Lockie91 Train Controller

@Lockie91

Have you got a source for the Melton pre-sparks being completed as part of BLU? I'm curious
res1psaloqu1tur
It's not much of a secret and very obvious precursor works.

Track amplification between Sunshine and Melton
Upgraded LX protection
Upgraded/New Signalling and Cable routes
Upgraded 3 point signalling
New and Upgraded stations

All work that would have needed to be done as part of a Melton Electrification Project.

In addition LXRA is removing three LX's between the Deer Park Junction and Sunshine. Deer Park Station is to be rebuilt as part of the Mt Derrimut Road removal. Another precursor requirement

Melton and Ardeer are the only stations yet to receive an upgrade. Both are likely to be demolished as part of the Melton Electrification Project. Melton to be reconfigured to allow stabling and the removal of Exford Road. (Could be done similar to Mernda) Ardeer most likely demolished and rebuilt to allow additional express regional tracks.

Still a very substantial project to get sparks out to Melton as a lot of other pieces need to happen in tandem. Which is why this has all been scooped up into the WRP as regional services need to remained segregated once Melton is sparked.

Its going to be a very messy few years out in the west as a myriad of projects happen to get sparks to Melton and WV, keep regional services to Ballarat and Geelong segregated, throw in some HSR to keep those Geelong folk happy and figure out how to get everyone from Sunshine to the CBD while not forgetting about the airport. Heres hoping by 2030 all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle have fallen in the right place and we don't have a Jackson Pollock of a network.
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
Might add the mounts for the overhead gantries are also being installed as part of the BLU...
  Lockie91 Train Controller

I know that foundations were installed when Caroline Springs was built. That was serval years ago. Are these also being installed in other locations along the line?
  simstrain Chief Commissioner

Good pickup today.

If sunshine will be a super centre I hope they are building 2 Sg platforms for access.

A link from Werribee to the RFR should be a priority to remove crowding to the city on V/Line.
What? you think the overland is going to be stopping there!
Dangersdan707

The only SG at sunshine is the track heading to Sydney.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Good pickup today.

If sunshine will be a super centre I hope they are building 2 Sg platforms for access.

A link from Werribee to the RFR should be a priority to remove crowding to the city on V/Line.
What? you think the overland is going to be stopping there!

The only SG at sunshine is the track heading to Sydney.
simstrain
Half Right, Sims as was I. On further Inspection All SG Towards Adelaide and Sydney from Melbourne go via Sunshine!


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