Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
A few comments,As I type this (5:30pm EST),

- not one east coast state is less than $100/MWh,
- Vic and SA over $200/MWh.
- NSW, once the leader of cheap power is $130/MWh.
- Qld the baston of near 100% govt ownership $106/MWh.
- Meanwhile in the west, WA, a state not historically linked with cheap available power is $45/MWh. If WA had been so cheap in the past it would have had an aluminum smelter by now. In 2010, the NEM wholesale price varied between $30 and $55MWh, depending on the state.

Year to date prices are not looking good for 2019 to be better than 2018 with most of the east coast states at $90/MWh or worse with exception of Tas and Qld, but still over $80/MWh.

Something is clearly wrong and the answer should be obvious if you look at the timelines. The pro-Re won't like to hear this, but every time a coal fire power station was closed on the NEM, the whole price has gone up. It happened in SA, then Vic and to a degree in NSW. NSW now imports power almost continuously from Qld. What will happen with the Liddel closure?

We cannot blame the private operators, they are only doing what they are allowed to do, meanwhile the two states with mostly govt owned assets are happily screwing their own. The People of Qld should be revolting against the Qld govt, drive down to the border and knocking down the transmission lines. No other state govt in Qld has continuously shafted it people and business for power like the current govt and they have the hide to say they want RE. Tas wants Basslink 2, but I fear this will expose more of the Tasmanian grid to the Vic/NEM debacle. Technically it makes sense, but price wise....

We keep hearing coal is not viable anymore, then well why the hell are they still being built elsewhere including EU and right now you can build one in Aus and make an absolute killing on the current market price? Coal is very much viable economically, only if they would be allowed and being allowed means Risk against future retaliation. Seriously the whole anti-coal argument on price is complete BS and its about time people woke up to this.

CO2 is the new pollution people want to stop, we get that. We argued in the past over reducing chemical pollution in the 70's to 90's, no one wants to go back to dirty air and polluted rivers. Today CO2 is now the latest thing we are trying to ban, however its impacts are not felt locally and its future impact is based on computer modelling and educated guess work, so of course the doubters are rightly allowed to doubt. Additionally the use of CO2 taxes as the latest lever to tax the rich and give to the poor doesn't help the argument either. However overall, I think most would agree less CO2 emissions is better than more.

On the side, if we think our focus to reduce CO2 taxes doesn't include a population policy, then we are delusional.

Should the power sector be transitioned to RE, of course. But its in the how that makes the difference in long-term price. How often do you see here people promoting the likes of Solar and wind over coal, but have no clue on how to keep the lights around the clock at an affordable rate? just quoting the Greenie propaganda. Build Snowy 2.0, Build pumped hydro they rattle, but who will pay. In 60 years since dam building started on the main land for hydro on a large scale, how much pumped hydro was ever installed? Brisbane had Wivenhoe and also Tumut is pretty much it, both done on practical/economic grounds.

The boss of Bluescope said it very well, we are not against RE, we are against the transition phase that continues to provide some of the highest power prices in the world and higher than that of countries that have to import the energy. For a country that is gifted with so much energy, this is unacceptable.

So if we are going to go down this path of RE,
- Lets see what is the whole sale price forecast for each step. I suspect if the current prices were published in 2010 and put to the vote, we would have built a new coal power station to replace Hazellwood, at least and likely Northern.

- Lets see what the plan is for each coal fired power station to be closed, no plan, then you need to plan a replacement coal or gas power station

- Lets see where the proposed Pumped Hydro locations will be. Scientists marking off Valleys on the map then saying trust us may turn out differently when compulsory acquisition is started, hint, anyone remember the Mary River Dam fiasco?

- How much RE should be built as "gifted" infrastructure by the taxpayers and how much funded through power prices?

I'm not against RE, but for me right now I want to see a plan that gets the east coast grid wholesale power prices reduced by 5-10% pa for next 5-10 years.  


On a side note, why don't we have the same focus on reducing CO2 with land transportation? Gillard's CO2 tax policy was so bad, it even screwed this up and did the reverse.

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  Carnot Chief Commissioner

This could get messy, with a Chinese built coal power plant in the Hunter:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/new-coal-fired-plan-in-nsw-hunter-valley-reignite-climate-wars/10877470

"Greens energy spokesman Adam Bandt says the plan is "madness".
"It will make the Franklin Dam campaign look like a Sunday picnic," Mr Bandt said, referring to the successful movement in 1983 to stop a dam being built in the remote Tasmanian wilderness."
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
This could get messy, with a Chinese built coal power plant in the Hunter:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/new-coal-fired-plan-in-nsw-hunter-valley-reignite-climate-wars/10877470

"Greens energy spokesman Adam Bandt says the plan is "madness".
"It will make the Franklin Dam campaign look like a Sunday picnic," Mr Bandt said, referring to the successful movement in 1983 to stop a dam being built in the remote Tasmanian wilderness."
Carnot
Adam Bandt will be lucky to have a political party at all after the next federal election - the latest figures I've seen suggest One Nation will be ahead of them in the NSW election and perhaps the same at a national level.

The Greens are currently imploding because of factionalism and bad management... maybe not a bad thing given how implaccable they are towards ordinary people having reliable, affordable energy.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

This could get messy, with a Chinese built coal power plant in the Hunter:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/new-coal-fired-plan-in-nsw-hunter-valley-reignite-climate-wars/10877470

"Greens energy spokesman Adam Bandt says the plan is "madness".
"It will make the Franklin Dam campaign look like a Sunday picnic," Mr Bandt said, referring to the successful movement in 1983 to stop a dam being built in the remote Tasmanian wilderness."
Adam Bandt will be lucky to have a political party at all after the next federal election - the latest figures I've seen suggest One Nation will be ahead of them in the NSW election and perhaps the same at a national level.

The Greens are currently imploding because of factionalism and bad management... maybe not a bad thing given how implaccable they are towards ordinary people having reliable, affordable energy.
don_dunstan
Don, I thought you were against Chinese investment in Australia?

Now I agree that the Greens are a rabble.  But it won't be just the Greens that'll be wound up by any new coal power plant in Australia.  About 70%+ of the Australian population will be.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I for one think it’s a terrific idea, I am not a huge fan of coal as a fuel source (thorium would be my choice) but I am sick of the greenies saying there is just no investment in coal, when really there is. Finally we get some and they’ll just oppose it (which is not strictly a bad thing) only to later state again and again that ‘no one wants to invest in coal’ - without clarifying that investment would occur, if only it were allowed...
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Yeah but Aaron I think the mob concerned are expecting to get a billion or 2 out of the Feds. And in a couple of articles and on the radio the Cayman islands have got a mention.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
2 billion is about half of what Snowy 2.0 is costing for the same capacity of generation. If it’s only 1 billion then even better.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Sounds sketchy as.  If Shorten gets in then it definitely won't happen.
  michaelgm Deputy Commissioner

Let's hope the Feds don't sign up during caretaker mode. And have the taxpayer funding breach of contract penalties..
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Yeah but Aaron I think the mob concerned are expecting to get a billion or 2 out of the Feds. And in a couple of articles and on the radio the Cayman islands have got a mention.
wobert
The Holmes a'Court family is very heavily invested in wind-farms across the nation and they're avid promoters of the method; not surprisingly good friends with Malcolm Turnbull.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
2 billion is about half of what Snowy 2.0 is costing for the same capacity of generation. If it’s only 1 billion then even better.
Aaron
I've read some pretty widely varying estimates of what Snowy 2.0 will cost depending entirely on what they actually go with. I believe the scheme being proposed at the moment is a modest $4.5 billion but the one that Malcolm Turnbull was trying to get built was $7 billion plus.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/08/planned-5bn-hunter-valley-coal-project-will-require-investors

Looks like a dead duck in just a couple of days.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
2 billion is about half of what Snowy 2.0 is costing for the same capacity of generation. If it’s only 1 billion then even better.
Aaron
Difference Aaron

Snowy 2.0 doesn't add 1MW to the system, it banks energy for peaks.

The coal project is adding new capacity to the network which will help increase competition with existing players and reduce prices.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Sounds sketchy as.  If Shorten gets in then it definitely won't happen.
Carnot
He can only do that if he introduces a bill that will either ban or penalise the power station.

This will be a big set of balls and would require a significant plan as an alternative and the issue is they don't have one.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Um, I think the market has already decided, no one will lend, short of a billion or 2 from the Feds, it aint happening.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Um, I think the market has already decided, no one will lend, short of a billion or 2 from the Feds, it aint happening.
wobert
The Australian banking industry is risk adverse. However the issue is not about risk of not making a commercial rate of return, rather risk of punitive taxes and charges by any operator who attempts to build a coal power station. Meanwhile the population continue to be led like lambs to a slaughter paying  too much for their power and no-one of significant gives a crap!
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
The market has not decided that coal is dead.  That is the domain of the politicians.
Remove the subsidies for solar and wind (including the home solar panels) and get rid of the coal penalties imposed due to the carbon fairy and see which way the market falls.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

A good analysis on how stupid a new coal fired power plant would be. It's up there with Denis Napthine's East-West tunnel:

https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-loses-the-plot-as-window-closes-on-fantasy-coal-plans-16796/
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
The market has not decided that coal is dead.  That is the domain of the politicians.
Remove the subsidies for solar and wind (including the home solar panels) and get rid of the coal penalties imposed due to the carbon fairy and see which way the market falls.
Donald

  DjulfinFox Beginner

Now prices are rising very quickly. And electricity is no exception.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
So much for so-called reliable coal fired electricity generation!

Loy Yang A has spat a generator that may keep it out of action for 7 months:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-energy-flags-seven-month-outage-at-victoria-s-loy-yang-power-plant-20190607-p51vq0.html

ONE windmill turning for ONE day will produce more power than Unit 2 at Loy Yang until Christmas!!!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The market has not decided that coal is dead.  That is the domain of the politicians.
Remove the subsidies for solar and wind (including the home solar panels) and get rid of the coal penalties imposed due to the carbon fairy and see which way the market falls.
Donald
Minister Matt Cavanan won't enact the price mechanism to ensure Australians get gas at reasonable prices so we're still paying more than our Japanese "customers" while collecting token taxes on it because Chevron, Santos et al are allowed to write down the value of their new gas plants.

This whole energy mess is purely the result of politicians being unable to stand up on behalf of the Australian people who voted them into office... disgraceful. IN the meantime we still have the highest domestic electricity charges in the world here in South Australia. Who in their right mind would want to set up a business here?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
So much for so-called reliable coal fired electricity generation!

Loy Yang A has spat a generator that may keep it out of action for 7 months:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-energy-flags-seven-month-outage-at-victoria-s-loy-yang-power-plant-20190607-p51vq0.html

ONE windmill turning for ONE day will produce more power than Unit 2 at Loy Yang until Christmas!!!
DirtyBallast
What a silly statement to make and do we really need to go through this again?

https://opennem.org.au/#/region/sa/energy

Suggest you spend time going through the real data and then get back to us.

Also you might want to check Youtube out, start with typing in "Wind turbines blowing up", I wonder how much power they will make between now and Christmas?
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
DirtyBallast, you have no idea.

It’s one generator in Unit A, which likely means the other three can still wizz up some electrons.

But even so, if it were the whole plant, Loy Yang has a capacity factor of 80+% so even if it were out for seven months (note it’s ‘up to’ so could be less) five twelfths of 80% is 33% that’s still and extra 10% more capacity factor over Victoria’s wind turbines.

That should show you something about wind energy - a coal plant can be out of action for ‘most’ of the year and still be a more reliable, predictable source - even with an ‘unpredictable’ failure such as this one.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
So much for so-called reliable coal fired electricity generation!

Loy Yang A has spat a generator that may keep it out of action for 7 months:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-energy-flags-seven-month-outage-at-victoria-s-loy-yang-power-plant-20190607-p51vq0.html

ONE windmill turning for ONE day will produce more power than Unit 2 at Loy Yang until Christmas!!!
What a silly statement to make and do we really need to go through this again?

https://opennem.org.au/#/region/sa/energy

Suggest you spend time going through the real data and then get back to us.

Also you might want to check Youtube out, start with typing in "Wind turbines blowing up", I wonder how much power they will make between now and Christmas?
RTT_Rules
Medium-to-large wind turbine generates about 2MW each. LY2 generates (sorry, USED to generate) up to 560MW.

Please provide a credible link to demonstrate that 230 equivalent wind turbines have 'blown up' anywhere, anytime.

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