Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
DirtyBallast, you have no idea.

It’s one generator in Unit A, which likely means the other three can still wizz up some electrons.

But even so, if it were the whole plant, Loy Yang has a capacity factor of 80+% so even if it were out for seven months (note it’s ‘up to’ so could be less) five twelfths of 80% is 33% that’s still and extra 10% more capacity factor over Victoria’s wind turbines.

That should show you something about wind energy - a coal plant can be out of action for ‘most’ of the year and still be a more reliable, predictable source - even with an ‘unpredictable’ failure such as this one.
Aaron
Predictable and unpredictable in one sentence?

Spare me.

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  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Spare you? Like you were spared statistics and probability training you mean?

What specifically is your problem with that statement? Do you think the capacity factor cannot be predicted? It can damn nearly be known, so predicting it is relatively trivial. Or do you think this failure was predictable? In which case Siméon Poisson wants to have a word with you.
  allan Chief Commissioner

Unlike the failure of worn out coal fired generators, the roll out of wind generators is neither instantaneous nor complete.

No doubt the owners of the remaining coal fired generators will be less than upset about the breakdown, as this reduces the potential available supply of electricity, meaning that the remaining supply (short supply) can be sold at a higher price.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Spare you? Like you were spared statistics and probability training you mean?

What specifically is your problem with that statement? Do you think the capacity factor cannot be predicted? It can damn nearly be known, so predicting it is relatively trivial. Or do you think this failure was predictable? In which case Siméon Poisson wants to have a word with you.
Aaron
Oh FFS.

I have consistently argued over time that the inevitable failures of coal fired power generators CANNOT be predicted, only to be met with an air of dismissiveness by deniers.

Look at last summer's only brownout in Victoria. The only reason that occurred was because of the unpredictable multiple failures of the 'coalies' when they were needed the most. In the meantime there was plenty of renewable MW being produced.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
So much renewables that we still had a brownout!
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
So much renewables that we still had a brownout!
Donald
Fact is, we don't have "so much renewables".
  allan Chief Commissioner

So much renewables that we still had a brownout!
Fact is, we don't have "so much renewables".
Groundrelay
Not yet...
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
So much for so-called reliable coal fired electricity generation!

Loy Yang A has spat a generator that may keep it out of action for 7 months:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-energy-flags-seven-month-outage-at-victoria-s-loy-yang-power-plant-20190607-p51vq0.html

ONE windmill turning for ONE day will produce more power than Unit 2 at Loy Yang until Christmas!!!
What a silly statement to make and do we really need to go through this again?

https://opennem.org.au/#/region/sa/energy

Suggest you spend time going through the real data and then get back to us.

Also you might want to check Youtube out, start with typing in "Wind turbines blowing up", I wonder how much power they will make between now and Christmas?
Medium-to-large wind turbine generates about 2MW each. LY2 generates (sorry, USED to generate) up to 560MW.

Please provide a credible link to demonstrate that 230 equivalent wind turbines have 'blown up' anywhere, anytime.
DirtyBallast

Very narrow thinking and your final comment also assumes the entire coal fired network has done the same.

NSW, Vic and Qld have something like 19,000 MW of coal fired generation capacity being supplied by around ~52 turbines with a nominal availability of 85%, reliability is power to the grid at full capacity, so 16,000 to 17,000 MW at anyone time. The Peak output yesterday was 17,030 MW.

When that coal turbine failed at Loy Yang, what came to the rescue?
You guessed it, a stand-by coal turbine as Vic is still producing up to 4300 MW of coal fired power.

Australia has around 5700 MW of wind generating capacity with an average turbine size of 4 MW, so 1425 individual turbines with a likely rated availability 90 - 95%, however with a nominal output of 35% which reduces your average output from nameplate of 5700 x 95% availability x 35% nominal output = 1895 MW or a messily 1MW per turbine. An overall real time availability of 33%.

Also note using the NEM data from the last week, (also a windy week), the  highest output was 3700 MW and the lowest was 450 MW. So when the winds failed to blow, who came to the rescue?

Lets list them shall we
- Coal
- OCGT
- CCGT
- Gas Steam
- Hydro
- and worst of all, diesel!

I've said it before and I'll say it again for the benefit of DirtyBallast and any supporting cast.

- Wind is very good and cost effective at supporting and expanding the capacity of existing hydro.

- Wind is also ok to make supplementary contributions to the existing thermal fueled grid up to a limit.

- Wind is a horrible source of power when you exceed the reasonable limit and therefore pay for the same amount thermal generating capacity to be sitting there waiting to cover its ar$e. As a result the thermal generation capacity is often high cost to very high cost and you are paying for things not to be used and this includes the gas contracts which is why Pelican Point was not ready when SA needed it 2 years ago when wind failed to fill the gap created by the loss of Northern.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Oh FFS.

I have consistently argued over time that the inevitable failures of coal fired power generators CANNOT be predicted, only to be met with an air of dismissiveness by deniers.

Look at last summer's only brownout in Victoria. The only reason that occurred was because of the unpredictable multiple failures of the 'coalies' when they were needed the most. In the meantime there was plenty of renewable MW being produced.
DirtyBallast
You may have consistently argued that the earth is flat because planes don't fly upside down, but that doesn't mean you are right. Right now there is a meeting of the deniers, go look in the mirror to find them.

If you had a brown out it was because the wasn't enough wind being produced was there.

Coal power reliability is only as good as you operate with the required redundancy, when stupidity reins supreme and you do not replace the closed plants, then the lights go out. The same will happen to any generation source.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Unlike the failure of worn out coal fired generators, the roll out of wind generators is neither instantaneous nor complete.

No doubt the owners of the remaining coal fired generators will be less than upset about the breakdown, as this reduces the potential available supply of electricity, meaning that the remaining supply (short supply) can be sold at a higher price.
allan
Solar leaves a lot to be desired - I've read lots of stories about the varying quality of roof-top panels. The ones in this ABC story didn't even last five years but I've also heard of people (friends of friends) whose panels have decreased to no output after 10 years even though they were supposedly high quality... not an uncommon story apparently.

Also, they can't be disposed into landfill because they're full of heavy metals... all round wonderful for the planet aren't they.
  DJPeters Assistant Commissioner

So much for so-called reliable coal fired electricity generation!

Loy Yang A has spat a generator that may keep it out of action for 7 months:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-energy-flags-seven-month-outage-at-victoria-s-loy-yang-power-plant-20190607-p51vq0.html

ONE windmill turning for ONE day will produce more power than Unit 2 at Loy Yang until Christmas!!!
DirtyBallast
As long as they keep turning that is checkout this video of wind turbines but be warned it aint a pretty sight. Skip the chest beating part at the start that asks you to subscribe etc.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=No1Qzx1sQyc
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Don't get me started on the 'endangered parrot mincers'...
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Here's a good read for ya Don

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/06/matt-canavan-sacked-national-interest/

and read the 2nd or third comment by a bloke called Jason
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Here's a good read for ya Don

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/06/matt-canavan-sacked-national-interest/

and read the 2nd or third comment by a bloke called Jason
wobert
There's a few reasons why the government hasn't done a thing to resolve the gas 'crisis'.

Number one, they desperately need as much gas as possible to prop up our balance of trade, because without shoving every ounce of LNG, iron ore or coal off-shore (as we do) the Aussie dollar would sink like a stone.

Number two, the gas companies themselves are trying to promote the idea that there's some sort of a shortage in this country so they can get fracking accepted as a viable alternative to collect more gas and alleviate the 'shortage'. Already they've had a limited victory of sorts in the NT but once the Great Artesian Basin is poisoned it'll be poisoned forever. So the public resistance is (naturally) huge - so promoting the idea of an energy shortage or 'crisis' suits both the gas companies and the government.

It's also handy for the LNP that the higher the gas price goes the higher the electricity prices goes because our grid is quite reliant on gas for peaks - as you say, they can blame that one on unreliable renewables instead.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Pretty ferkin ornery innit. Also, we export more gas than anyone else now, we overtook Qatar or someone last year. They get 27 billion dollars in royalties per year, we get 900 million. But apparently if we tax gas at a higher rate the big multi nationals might pick up stumps and sod off, yeah sure. I wish they would then we might actually have some gas for ourselves.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The funding/subsidy of rooftop solar is probably to be regarded as the WORST energy decision/policy our varying governments have implemented, perhaps second only to the banning of nuclear.

If you’re truly seeking an environmentally sustainable energy sector why would you pay anyone, to buy any old panel and mount it in a fixed position that if it EVER sees optimum insolation does so for maybe a few moments a day during a few days of the year (at best). What an idiotic waste of resources (and money).

If we put that subsidy into funding a proper tracking (actually ‘corrected for earth motion’) solar plants we would be in a significantly better position.

It’s disturbing to know that Johann Lambert managed to publish ‘Photometria’ nearly 150 years before we fully understood the photoelectric effect, and yet despite the calculating of cosines of angles being rather trivial today governments choose to ignore 250 years of knowledge.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Pretty ferkin ornery innit. Also, we export more gas than anyone else now, we overtook Qatar or someone last year. They get 27 billion dollars in royalties per year, we get 900 million. But apparently if we tax gas at a higher rate the big multi nationals might pick up stumps and sod off, yeah sure. I wish they would then we might actually have some gas for ourselves.
wobert
Well I guess they look at what happened to Kevin Rudd and his super-royalties tax on iron ore miners (or whatever it was called) and realise that it's not impossible for the gas companies to have them knocked off in the same way. So if you can't beat 'em then join 'em in ripping off the Aussie public. Qatar aren't stupid, they know that the resource will eventually run dry which is why they're taxing it to the hilt... now us on the other hand.

The more you look the more obvious it becomes that we've been sold out by our kleptomaniac politicians trying to benefit themselves or their mates or trying to get directorships and jobs after they leave politics. What's the bet Christopher Pyne ends up working for Lockheed or the submarine consortium? I bet he's doing something like that for a six figure sum before the end of the year.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Pretty ferkin ornery innit. Also, we export more gas than anyone else now, we overtook Qatar or someone last year. They get 27 billion dollars in royalties per year, we get 900 million. But apparently if we tax gas at a higher rate the big multi nationals might pick up stumps and sod off, yeah sure. I wish they would then we might actually have some gas for ourselves.
wobert
I wouldn't too excited, the way the count the $ would likely make the difference.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Pretty ferkin ornery innit. Also, we export more gas than anyone else now, we overtook Qatar or someone last year. They get 27 billion dollars in royalties per year, we get 900 million. But apparently if we tax gas at a higher rate the big multi nationals might pick up stumps and sod off, yeah sure. I wish they would then we might actually have some gas for ourselves.
I wouldn't too excited, the way the count the $ would likely make the difference.
Have you been drinking  or should I try and read what you said, not what I thought you said?
michaelgm

Australia exports this 2018-19 year $50B in gas, up from $31B the year before. So making $27B in royalities from $31B in sales is a bit steep. Royalty payments of $0.9B / $50B is 2%. That's royalties, not profits. Not bad for doing nothing, not sure how it compares with other minerals.

Qatar, everything is govt owned or mostly govt owned, so do you know what the profit was on top of that $27B?

Qatar rose to fame to be a major exporter of gas because its sweet, easy to get and cheap, however Australia's gas is not or at least not all of it is not, please see the below international comparison which shows Australia's price is 6 x higher than Qatar.

https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/snapchart-lng-breakeven-cost-comparisons/


The good news for Aussie is that next 2-3 years there is a projected world shortage of LNG, so the royalty payments will rise as will the profits of the exporters.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
https://opennem.org.au/#/region/sa/energy
interesting last 12h

During the day when the sun and wind was out and SA was exporting its surplus, power was $18/MWh

During the night when both wind and sun had faded, SA's own gas plus imported power was $115/MWh

...and thus summarizes the sporadic nature of too much wind generation on the electricity market without sufficient hydro and other means to moderate. Driving the depatchable (read reliable) lower cost base load generators out of business, while leaving gaps to be filled by high cost peaking generating capacity when the wind stops.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Just been informed that my Gas price is increasing. Worked out at 7.5% and 3.5% for service.

But keep blaming it all on renewables Razz
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Yallourn Brown coal power plant in Vic might close sooner than expected (within 6 years instead of 13).  More cats among the pigeons....
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Yallourn Brown coal power plant in Vic might close sooner than expected (within 6 years instead of 13).  More cats among the pigeons....
Carnot
Another thousand jobs sacrificed at the altar of the carbon fairy.

Don't worry the party of the workers will save the jobs ...
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Yallourn Brown coal power plant in Vic might close sooner than expected (within 6 years instead of 13).  More cats among the pigeons....
Another thousand jobs sacrificed at the altar of the carbon fairy.

Don't worry the party of the workers will save the jobs ...
Donald
I tend to think a bit differently since I am convinced of the problem of anthropogenic global warming.

An opportunity for thousands of jobs to build renewable energy and pumped storage....

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