Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
When the sun peaks, my solar panels (and my parents with even more solar) go into full production (or what passes for full production in a non tracking system) we get paid 40c/kWh ($400/MWh) meanwhile the ‘market’ sells that energy for in the order of -$100/MWh who’s really paying for that? Thanks neighbours!
Best I can get in Sydney is 27c/KWh. Good luck to you.
michaelgm
Every day over last 7 days bar one the SA electricity market has gone negative during day time and rest of the sunny time, very low +'ve prices due to high levels of wind. The one day power didn't go negative and remained above $50/MW, you guessed it there was minimal wind.

The current fixed price solar market is quickly becoming unsustainable and there will be further cuts of the fixed price in the next 12-18mths OR the market will be linked to the network price. This will encourage PV owners to use their own power by shifting demand where possible or install batteries which are slowly improving on price.

SA's typical 7pm price is between $100-350/MWh, so you could imagine being linked to the live price and being paid $0 or buying batteries and either using internally or selling at 40-60c/kWh may prove attractive for many and it won't take a govt subsidy.

My Bro in law in Brisbane sent me his solar data. He has a 6.6kW system with 5kW inverter. His panels face two directions due to house alignment. Even with this system he is using 6kW a day of direct solar output and buying 8kW off the grid at night. The 8kW is off-set by nearly 2-3 times the extra fed into the grid during the day.

When we went through his data if he had a 13kW battery, there would be around a total of 20 days a year he would need feed from the grid, mostly late Jan / early Feb. He also says the solar feed in tariff paid by the retailer is rising and well above the govt min rate, however I don't think this can last with Qld installing commercial solar farms and now wind. Again I give it another 2 years tops before the floor price is quietly removed or reduced.

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  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Despite Qld seeing record low daily whole sale power prices during the middle of the day over last few weeks, as low as -$700MWh, but usually between $10 and -$100/MWh driven by Qld huge amount of solar exceeding 1/3 of demand, yet evening peaks being frequently around $100MWh. The Wivenhoe pumped hydro (+/- 500MW) is rarely operating, today being the first time in a while.

Meanwhile the Kidston Pumped hydro project using two old gold mine pits in Nth Qld has been given the go ahead.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
Carnot
If they're really that cheap then why do they need $2.8 billion p/a in taxpayer and power consumer subsidies?
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
If they're really that cheap then why do they need $2.8 billion p/a in taxpayer and power consumer subsidies?
don_dunstan
To enable a transition in technologies.  Nobody said it was going to be easy.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Victorian Energy Policy Centre finds that the closure of Hazelwood power station lead to big profits for AGL (in particular), $832,000,000 gained from forcing those consumers onto unreliable and intermittent energy. The report also finds that the average wholesale price of electricity in Victoria has quadrupled from an average $28 kw/h in 2015 to $111 kw/h in 2019.

What's not to like in the rush to defeat the invisible carbon fairy? Operators and generators are making a killing off the backs of ordinary consumers -
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
If they're really that cheap then why do they need $2.8 billion p/a in taxpayer and power consumer subsidies?
To enable a transition in technologies.  Nobody said it was going to be easy.
Carnot
To manage an un-provable threat that doesn't exist?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
Carnot
No, they are not. If they were we wouldn't have Vic and SA paying around $100/MWh for power with more being built now.

New Coal is around US$50/MWh in a PPP arrangement using high quality Australian black coal exported half way around the world. That's cheaper than any of the current Australian whole power prices in the NEM.

Nuclear is US$80-100MW/h

While wind and solar are now cheaper or likely soon to be cheaper than coal, once you add storage, there is no chance to be cheaper than New coal as you are telling me you can build a pumped hydro project for less than US$20-25/MWh, which would be difficult.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
No, they are not. If they were we wouldn't have Vic and SA paying around $100/MWh for power with more being built now.

New Coal is around US$50/MWh in a PPP arrangement using high quality Australian black coal exported half way around the world. That's cheaper than any of the current Australian whole power prices in the NEM.

Nuclear is US$80-100MW/h

While wind and solar are now cheaper or likely soon to be cheaper than coal, once you add storage, there is no chance to be cheaper than New coal as you are telling me you can build a pumped hydro project for less than US$20-25/MWh, which would be difficult.
RTT_Rules
So you're saying that the ABC Fact Checker is completely wrong?  (Note - it has been badly wrong on many social issues at times, but rarely on this issue)
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
We have to make sure there are absolutely no jobs left in Australia whatsoever as per our signature on the Lima Declaration in 1975; to which end the rush to unreliable energy sources will help no end. Who in their right mind would want to set up any sort of business in South Australia when we have the very highest retail charges for domestic electricity in the world? All to try and protect us from a completely imaginary threat that doesn't exist.

The panic and alarm over 'climate change' is fed by the very people who are gaining money and status from their alarmist position. Take veteran climate change activist Tim Flannery - only the other day telling people they should be more frightened than ever (The Conversation);

On a sunny day in Sydney last Sunday Tim Flannery, former Australian of the Year, appeared on a panel of international journalists convened to discuss the reporting of climate science. Kerry O’Brien kicked things off by asking about the prognosis. Flannery said he wouldn’t answer until the young people at the Sydney Opera House had been given a chance to leave. Things were so dire he feared for their mental health.

What a load of rubbish - I seem to recall reading a book by Tim Flannery some 12 years ago that assured me there would never be full dams again on Australia's mainland capitals, that there would be substantial sea level rises by 2020 (where are they?). All these people do is spout doom and gloom that never happens or fails to be realised as per their models. Has he ever predicted anything that has actually come to pass?

At what point do we ignore these people are being alarmists who are completely wrong about everything?
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

There are deniers and alarmists, my view is the truth is somewhere in between.

Flannery, Gore and Co. over egged the pudding and lost all credibility in the process.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
There are deniers and alarmists, my view is the truth is somewhere in between.

Flannery, Gore and Co. over egged the pudding and lost all credibility in the process.
michaelgm
If they don't preach doom and gloom then nobody would notice; they're kind-of compelled to be scary.

Carbon dioxide concentration has been historically much higher on planet earth and yet somehow we survived... I'm sure the same thing will happen again.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting Fact Check article on the ABC.  Renewables + Storage is cheaper than new coal and/or nuclear:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
No, they are not. If they were we wouldn't have Vic and SA paying around $100/MWh for power with more being built now.

New Coal is around US$50/MWh in a PPP arrangement using high quality Australian black coal exported half way around the world. That's cheaper than any of the current Australian whole power prices in the NEM.

Nuclear is US$80-100MW/h

While wind and solar are now cheaper or likely soon to be cheaper than coal, once you add storage, there is no chance to be cheaper than New coal as you are telling me you can build a pumped hydro project for less than US$20-25/MWh, which would be difficult.
So you're saying that the ABC Fact Checker is completely wrong?  (Note - it has been badly wrong on many social issues at times, but rarely on this issue)
Carnot
If you are asking me if I'm calling BS on whether the data used by Fact Checker is correct, yes I am.

Oh wait, I'm actually using real world data, published in industry publications, plants being built now in my current temporary country of residence and other locations.

Remember ANU did a report that stated, "Australia has unlimited sources of pumped hydro".
Ok, now tell me exactly where using the following criteria
- Environmentally acceptable
- Community Acceptable, ie Mary, Woofteen (spelling, basically Logan/Albert Rr catchment area) and Franklin Dams anyone.
- Geologically practical
- Sufficient source of water to maintain level, even pumped hydro looses water to evaporation and seepage)
- Practical location to connect to the grid
- Financially viable

oh wait, despite there being unlimited locations, there has been no pumped hydro built in how many decades......and the ones being built now are dependent on large price variability and govt funding.

Tas is sitting there which numerous ready options for pumped hydro, many of there "run of the river" dams are within sight of each other and pumped hydro makes huge sense for these dams when river flows are low/drought, but why are not they building? The dams exist, the generation equipment exists, you just need to build pipes and pumps. Whats taking them so long? Answer $$$$$

I love pumped hydro as a means to resolve the peaking power issue, but its not as easy as everyone thinks and most if not all the of the pumped hydro we have now was built because in the 60's and 70's it was the most cost effective option for peaking power and did not need to have a cost recovery, just keep the lights on.

For the record, Dubai is also building pumped hydro to support its Solar PV and RE 2030 target strategy. But they are also building a 2400MW coal power station  and Abu Dhabi is building both solar and nuclear.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
In a city of 88% expats with projects underway to expand the power generation capacity in coal, solar (1 GW) and pumped hydro, Dubai charges 14c/kW for a range 4000 - 6000kW/mt. This is adding VAT and fuel surcharge we changes by the month based on the world LNG gas prices If you are in an apartment with much lower demand you can pay a tariff around 9c. As we are in a villa with our own AC and no district cooling we vary between 12 and 14c/kW depending on time of year.

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?

We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
In a city of 88% expats with projects underway to expand the power generation capacity in coal, solar (1 GW) and pumped hydro, Dubai charges 14c/kW for a range 4000 - 6000kW/mt. This is adding VAT and fuel surcharge we changes by the month based on the world LNG gas prices If you are in an apartment with much lower demand you can pay a tariff around 9c. As we are in a villa with our own AC and no district cooling we vary between 12 and 14c/kW depending on time of year.

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?

We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
The uptake of rooftop solar was due to the subsidies given out by the various governments.  
I know people with no environmental concerns and wouldn't give a rats !!! about CO2 output by coal fired power stations, putting up the panels just to get money from the government.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

In a city of 88% expats with projects underway to expand the power generation capacity in coal, solar (1 GW) and pumped hydro, Dubai charges 14c/kW for a range 4000 - 6000kW/mt. This is adding VAT and fuel surcharge we changes by the month based on the world LNG gas prices If you are in an apartment with much lower demand you can pay a tariff around 9c. As we are in a villa with our own AC and no district cooling we vary between 12 and 14c/kW depending on time of year.

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?

We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
RTT_Rules
There's no argument that Australian Governments and distributors have largely stuffed up when it comes to regulation and supply management.

Most people I know who have rooftop PV have had it installed for 2 reasons - cheaper power bills and the environment.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
...

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?
RTT_Rules
Shane, absolutely it is outrageous for a network that was mostly constructed in the 1920's-50's - but once again part of the culprit is renewables. As we've discussed before on this board home feed-in systems contribute to the need to re-engineer the grid to cope with the intermittent feed (plus different voltage) so the transmission network has been allowed to be 'gold-plated' by the distributors.
We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
RTT_Rules
The government is totally to blame for the situation, all the rubbish policy and decisions make by Gillard onwards that have hobbled our once extremely cheap centralised electricity systems. My own state of South Australia went full-blown stupid on a decision to pay people 44 cents a kw/h if they installed solar panels on their houses up until October 2011 - that feed-in tariff lasts until 2028 and its everyone around you who DOESN'T have that deal paying for that. That was some pretty spectacular middle-class welfare right there considering it's only people who can afford to invest at that time could get it - no problem with feeding into the grid at times of day when the grid doesn't really need it any longer - we don't have electricity-consuming manufacturing industries here in SA any longer so most of our consumption comes in the evenings.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The uptake of rooftop solar was due to the subsidies given out by the various governments.  
I know people with no environmental concerns and wouldn't give a rats !!! about CO2 output by coal fired power stations, putting up the panels just to get money from the government.
Donald
I have a mate who lives at Sebastapol VIC who has been skyting to me recently about his recent big spend on a huge new rooftop system subsidised to the absolute hilt by the extreme generosity of Dan Andrews (in particular). Gotta love a good bit of Aussie middle-class welfare.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
...

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?
Shane, absolutely it is outrageous for a network that was mostly constructed in the 1920's-50's - but once again part of the culprit is renewables. As we've discussed before on this board home feed-in systems contribute to the need to re-engineer the grid to cope with the intermittent feed (plus different voltage) so the transmission network has been allowed to be 'gold-plated' by the distributors.
We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
The government is totally to blame for the situation, all the rubbish policy and decisions make by Gillard onwards that have hobbled our once extremely cheap centralised electricity systems. My own state of South Australia went full-blown stupid on a decision to pay people 44 cents a kw/h if they installed solar panels on their houses up until October 2011 - that feed-in tariff lasts until 2028 and its everyone around you who DOESN'T have that deal paying for that. That was some pretty spectacular middle-class welfare right there considering it's only people who can afford to invest at that time could get it - no problem with feeding into the grid at times of day when the grid doesn't really need it any longer - we don't have electricity-consuming manufacturing industries here in SA any longer so most of our consumption comes in the evenings.
don_dunstan
Being paid $440MWh, but the going rate during the day in SA is around $50-60MWh.

Qld Solar supply is now so high, hitting 40% (I think SA maybe similar but the other major supply is wind and hence variable), on  typical day power price is negative at lunch. So many people with PV solar is being paid $60-120/MW so the power is then paid again for others to use it. However I have noticed the Large PV Farms are now going off line during the middle of the day due to such low / negative prices as the coal power cannot wind back any further.

All states have a significant peaking issue around 6-7pm, price is highest at this time. If domestic consumers were exposed to real time prices you'd be running your house on a genset in the back yard in the evening, which would solve the network price.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
...
All states have a significant peaking issue around 6-7pm, price is highest at this time. If domestic consumers were exposed to real time prices you'd be running your house on a genset in the back yard in the evening, which would solve the network price.
RTT_Rules
Absolutely - why not allow each household to burn its rubbish AKA "recycling" at that time every single night to fire up their hot water/mini steam turbine generator - just like it used to be in VIC with the various councils "incinerator days".
  arctic Deputy Commissioner

Location: Zurich
...

Australia's HV transmission and local distribution costs will be higher than Dubai due to larger country, less people /km2. But does this justify domestic tariffs pushing 50c/kWh?
Shane, absolutely it is outrageous for a network that was mostly constructed in the 1920's-50's - but once again part of the culprit is renewables. As we've discussed before on this board home feed-in systems contribute to the need to re-engineer the grid to cope with the intermittent feed (plus different voltage) so the transmission network has been allowed to be 'gold-plated' by the distributors.
We need to remember Australia's rapid and world leading take up of domestic rooftop PV is not driven by a sense of environmental responsibility or ground breaking technology, its because of a failure in electricity supply management by and regulation by govt.
The government is totally to blame for the situation, all the rubbish policy and decisions make by Gillard onwards that have hobbled our once extremely cheap centralised electricity systems. My own state of South Australia went full-blown stupid on a decision to pay people 44 cents a kw/h if they installed solar panels on their houses up until October 2011 - that feed-in tariff lasts until 2028 and its everyone around you who DOESN'T have that deal paying for that. That was some pretty spectacular middle-class welfare right there considering it's only people who can afford to invest at that time could get it - no problem with feeding into the grid at times of day when the grid doesn't really need it any longer - we don't have electricity-consuming manufacturing industries here in SA any longer so most of our consumption comes in the evenings.
Being paid $440MWh, but the going rate during the day in SA is around $50-60MWh.

Qld Solar supply is now so high, hitting 40% (I think SA maybe similar but the other major supply is wind and hence variable), on  typical day power price is negative at lunch. So many people with PV solar is being paid $60-120/MW so the power is then paid again for others to use it. However I have noticed the Large PV Farms are now going off line during the middle of the day due to such low / negative prices as the coal power cannot wind back any further.

All states have a significant peaking issue around 6-7pm, price is highest at this time. If domestic consumers were exposed to real time prices you'd be running your house on a genset in the back yard in the evening, which would solve the network price.
RTT_Rules
The coal stations can go to lower loads, they just dont. Conservative approach with a baseload mentality.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The coal stations can go to lower loads, they just dont. Conservative approach with a baseload mentality.
arctic
Ok, so what your saying they willing limit their turn down for a few hours to deliberately drive prices into the large negative numbers and be forced to pay people large sums to take their power because "they don't want too"!

On the more extreme days you can see the coal turning down around 1/3 from peak and at the same time large solar goes off line.
  arctic Deputy Commissioner

Location: Zurich
The coal stations can go to lower loads, they just dont. Conservative approach with a baseload mentality.
Ok, so what your saying they willing limit their turn down for a few hours to deliberately drive prices into the large negative numbers and be forced to pay people large sums to take their power because "they don't want too"!

On the more extreme days you can see the coal turning down around 1/3 from peak and at the same time large solar goes off line.
RTT_Rules
not saying any of that. I stand by my earlier comments.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Can you share the practical turn down capability of the various Qld coal power stations?

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