It's the economy, stupid!

 
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Back to the economy: Boeing is revealed to be in serious trouble after spending $43 billion on share buy-backs over the last few years prior to the 737 MAX crisis. They are now urgently seeking a line of credit to keep them going on top of a $10 billion 'emergency' loan they got recently - Wolf Street:

The first thing to know about Boeing’s mad scramble to line up “$10 billion or more” in new funding via a loan from a consortium of banks, on top of the $9.5 billion credit-line it obtained in October last year – efforts to somehow get through its cash-flow nightmare caused by the 737 MAX fiasco – is that the company blew, wasted, and incinerated $43.4 billion to buy back its own shares since June 2013, having become a master of financial engineering instead of aircraft engineering...

...This huge amount of cash is needed to fund the cash drain resulting from the fallout of two 737 MAX crashes, the global grounding of the planes now in its 11th month, the inability to deliver the 400 or so already built planes, the current halt in production, the squealing suppliers that have now started layoffs, the settlements with its airline customers over the grounded planes, the settlements and litigation with the families of the victims of the two crashes, the costs of dealing global regulatory issues, the collapsing sales of that plane, the scandal of Boeing’s culture revealed by corporate emails oozing to the surface, and the costs of re-engineering the software of the plane to make the plane safe to fly, amid doubts that this can even be done.

Putting a priority on financial engineering over actual engineering can get very expensive.

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  Carnot Chief Commissioner

But Trump says:
“Today I’m proud to declare the US is in the midst of an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen before.”

And Greta says:
"The world is on fire!"
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
But Trump says:
“Today I’m proud to declare the US is in the midst of an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen before.”

And Greta says:
"The world is on fire!"
Carnot
I don't think Boeing's current woes really have much to do the Trump - as that article said, they've been wasting money on share buy-backs and not leaving enough capital in reserve for an emergency like the problems with the 737 MAX.

I've been copping a lot of abuse on Twitter for re-posting this 2016 Productivity Commission report into elderly parent visas in Australia - in relation to the deportation of that 98 year-old Indian lady in Sydney as reported on News.com.au:

A 98 year-old woman is desperately fighting against being deported back to India after the Australian government decided that paying for a carer to tend to her for 15 hours a week was too expensive.

Esmeralda Rosario is now facing spending her 99th birthday alone with no family in Goa India after 12 years in Australia because the Home Affairs department refused her Aged Parent Visa application in November last year.

The mother of two and grandmother of four arrived in Australia in July 2007 on a tourist visa, and received an indefinite bridging visa in 2008 while her Aged Parent visa was being processed… Ms Rosario is a recipient of a $50,990 home care package through the government’s MyAgedCare program. Her daughter Marie Rita D’Silva said that $50,990 of annual funding gives the 98 year-old at-home care from a nurse three times a week in five hour blocks while her Australian family members earn a living.

The problem is that this woman is costing Australian taxpayers a fortune for a system that she in no way contributed to. The Productivity Commission report estimated that the total cost to the Australian taxpayer of each elderly parent visa is $330,000 - $410,000 and they recommended that the price should either be hiked to that level or the visa abolished in its entirety because those people were costing Centrelink and Medicare a fortune.

I'm accused of being a heartless b*stard for pointing out the obvious - that the family were trying to transfer the cost of caring for their grandmother to the Australian taxpayer and that having already been here for 11 years on a bridging visa with a very expensive Level Four home-care package she's already cost our welfare schemes hundreds of thousands. We simply don't have the capacity in our very small nation to care for the world's elderly and sick - we have own own elderly and sick to be looking after (and those resources are already stretched).

And the really insane thing about the Elderly Parent Visa system is that the Labor Party took a policy to the last election of uncapping the number of visas AND reducing the cost from around $25,000 to just $2,500. That's insanity, we already have enough blank cheques written by the Labor Party (NDIS, NBN) without adding to the burden for future taxpayers. Every dollar that gets spent on elderly migrants coming to this country has to by necessity come out of ANOTHER SCHEME like mental health, we simply don't have the money to provide for those elderly economic refugees.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Even the weather 'experts' at the Bureau of Meteorology were telling the government last month that there would be no meaningful rain in drought-affected eastern Australia until April this year - and now they have egg all over their faces because they were completely wrong.

How are we supposed to believe the accuracy of those doomsday predictions about the future climate when the experts can't even tell us what's going to happen next week?

Just another example of the elites at work, eh Pol Pot Razz

And it's quite clear you never paid attention in Geography or Physics classes when in school.
So it doesn't concern you that a huge multi-million dollar bureaucracy whose exclusive job is to predict the weather couldn't get their job right? They told the government no rain at all on the east coast until April - and they were wrong - it's got nothing whatsoever to do with my education or some kind of a conspiracy involving elites.
don_dunstan
As Don would point out (alot) I'm not in the country and therefore cannot see every m2 of the country live like Don can from the Central Control Room in SA, however I will agree the media reports that I was reading on Australian media websites were painting a picture that we still had months of fire to go because no significant rain was forecast.

However we have gone from crippling drought to crippling floods and hail with crippling fires in between in a mater of weeks.

The Dubai Australian community have a number of fund raising events to help the fire affected people and fauna, however due to local laws making it strictly illegal to fund raise for non govt-approved charities or organisations it took a few weeks to get the required approvals. Now no sooner than fire images had been projected on the Burj Khalifa, some are wondering if they need to go back and change the approval from "Australian fire relief" to "Australian flood relief".

So yes I have big concerns about the Met's accuracy and the band wagoning that followed in the media (and here) of the perceived state of the climate and whether there is a real change or perceived change that has driven the bush fire season this year.  

Is this climate change? No, its called Australia!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
NSW and VIC governments are both BROKE, both governments have run out of things to privatise and are going deeply into debt to keep up with growth. This is in no way sustainable.
NSW is not broke or suffering from significant debt.
WRONG again. Berejiklian's debt is projected to expand to $40,000,000,000 in the next year. Not as bad as the projected debt for Victoria @ $90,000,000,000 by 2024 but nevertheless deteriorating at a very rapid pace.
Bum bum, not next year, 3 years away and that's if they do nothing in between. The state is running a surplus, its committed capital spending pushing it into the Red.

NSW retains its Triple A credit rating and net debt is currently at zero, with $8.8  in the bank. But net debt levels are forecast to rise to $12.3 billion in 2019-20, and up to $38.6 billion in 2022-23.billionJun 18, 2019

So back to your beginning statement, no, that is incorrect for NSW!
Well I must have read the article incorrectly (it's projected for three years, not one) but that's STILL a huge amount of money considering GST revenues are projected to be down by $10,000,000,000 and there's nothing left for NSW to sell. They got a one-off sugar hit from their power privatisation - the same as Dan Andrews got a big whack of money from the privatisation of the Port of Melbourne - and now there's nothing left.

Actually that's not quite true, NSW and VIC are both looking around for anything else they can flog. Berejiklian flogged off the Land Titles office in NSW for $2.6 billion in 2017 with the promise that fees would remain capped at inflation - but the new owners immediately hiked some of their fees by huge amounts (some by 1900%) and started implementing a whole new range of fees until they were found out and made to adhere to the terms of their contract (Fairfax/Nine). Same in Victoria, Land Titles office flogged off for $2.86 billion and immediately started putting prices up.

Victoria is actually scoping the sale of some previously untouchable assets such as the operation of VicRoads motor registry (Morgan Stanley is advising them on this), the Transport Accident Commission (you can bet they won't stay headquartered in Geelong if they're not government controlled any longer, the insurance industry is salivating with the prospect of getting their hands on that particular juicy uncontested monopoly) and even the Public Records Office. Dan Andrews might overtly be a touchy-feely socialist but in practice he's Margaret Thatcher through and through.

You seriously have to wonder what the point of State governments is any longer if they don't even provide fundamental services like car registration, land titles, public records etc any longer - and you can bet that the cost of using those services will soar under new private owners. It's bad enough that the overall taxation burden to the Australian public has increased by around 4.5% every year for Commonwealth, state and local government revenues for the last five years - now the cost of the few remaining state government services will soar as well.
don_dunstan
The gap is a projection for which if they do nothing might happen as projected and its capital spending gap which I have less issue with if done in a controlled manner than operating budget short falls. Now we could talk about Qld, $70-80B debt incurred up to 2014 and has not been paid down since and no sign it will be any time soon with the govt actually likely to increase this number. Borrowing from our children and grandchildren future incomes before they are born, great move!


Hiking the fees is one way to try and compress the gap.

There is always something left.

The govt doesn't need to run the offices that provide its services, it just needs to set the terms and conditions on the services provided and contract it out. Been doing this for years on other forms, other countries have gone this way. The govt is still providing the service, policy and regulatory environment, but just not managing the day to day activities or employing the people directly.

Privatisation has rarely been the cause for prices to rise, its removal of govt subsidies or non sustainable pricing or poor regulatory control that usually do. We can talk about the above inflationary price hikes by govt owned entities if you like?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
...general employment conditions by the working class are generally better.
Australian living standards are FALLING, this has been explained to you many, many times and yet you continue to ignore it. Here's a link for you - ABC:

If there is one big thing that is keeping the economy from officially going backwards, it is population growth.

Take out the impact of the population, GDP growth is a very line ball call.

GDP per capita shrank in the third quarter and on some forecasts it will shrink again in the fourth quarter — which technically would be a recession of sorts.

The maths is pretty simple.

Australia's population grows at around 0.4 per cent a quarter (1.6 per cent a year). Quarterly GDP growth of 0.4 per cent delivers no growth on a per capita basis.

So there's NO GROWTH in GDP per capita and the average Australian has seen their living standard fall. According to other measures like raw wages growth the average Australian has been going backwards since 2012. Again, I think you need to be actually living here to experience the zeitgeist of the place - you read too much LNP propaganda and believe it.
don_dunstan
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual

Shows annual GDP growth rates above 2%, dipping recently to 1.6%. So according to your post, below 0.4% is no growth, so we have growth but not as good as it was.

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/wage-growth

Wages still rising, but slower, not surprising as minimal inflation. So do we expect people to get above inflationary wage rises?

I don't look at Australia as an island, I look at its position in the world as Australia is very much part of the global economy and always has been.

Population growth has been part of the economy and GDP for the last 225 years, why does this surprise you now?

What I have been saying for 10 years now is that the above inflationary wage rises of the mining boom were not sustainable and if you think they were then how long do you think the world would tolerate paying $250kpa for tradesmen in the Pilbra?

so yes, again does it surprise you that wages have been receding against the USD since 2012? Not me. I said many times, if your salary exceeds that of 2004 after factoring in inflation (before the boom) in USD for the same job and conditions and productivity you should be worried about your job and/or expect a cut in salary or no wage rises.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Things are very sick in Aussie retail land:


Egg on Vic Govt face too.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

I need a satirical take on the earlier quotes from today:

But Morrison says:
“Today I’m proud to declare Australia is in the midst of an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen before.”

And Greta says:
"The Aussie retail market is stuffed!"
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Byron Bay is NOT Australia! Russell Crowe is NOT Australian! How many times have I told you that the internet isn't representative of reality and you still ignore me - you could be told that Meghan Markle is a nice person via the internet and you'd believe it.
don_dunstan
Ok I forgot, the Australian fauna completely changes every 100km or so in its response to fire.

Remember Batlow, the town labeled "undefendable" by the authorities, but a dozen or so of my wife's rels and their friends did an amazing job saving most of the still in use structures. Unfortunately a guy from another town who came to help had a heart attack defending the town.

I tell you what, I'm going to Batlow in 8 weeks from Canberra, then driving to Brisbane. You send me your email address and I'll send you photos of all the denuded national parks and forests that we drive through along the way that support your theory. Smile
  C2 Junior Train Controller

How much for your wildlife how much for our barrier reef why hate or earthly creatures   flood WTF reading the LNP press release from news ltd , you guys will kill every thing for the economy. Do you remember when money was invented and who invented it , So you've open the blood bank . 1 koala 1  Trillion  1 platypus 1 Trillion , so sad  that your grandfather did that indigenous children
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

How much for your wildlife how much for our barrier reef why hate or earthly creatures   flood WTF reading the LNP press release from news ltd , you guys will kill every thing for the economy. Do you remember when money was invented and who invented it , So you've open the blood bank . 1 koala 1  Trillion  1 platypus 1 Trillion , so sad  that your grandfather did that indigenous children
C2
Who is teaching our kids grammar these days?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Things are very sick in Aussie retail land:


Egg on Vic Govt face too.
Carnot
Beat me to it. Our esteemed Premier Steve Marshall was there for the sod-turning on a very large Kaufland that was to be built here on Churchill Road, Prospect but according to the press release the sites will be left incomplete - I did drive past not long ago and it didn't even look half finished. The selection of that site never made any sense to me, there's a huge Coles and a Costco within a kilometer of the location - Adelaide has no shortage of big-barn supermarkets and yet another one seemed excessive.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Byron Bay is NOT Australia! Russell Crowe is NOT Australian! How many times have I told you that the internet isn't representative of reality and you still ignore me - you could be told that Meghan Markle is a nice person via the internet and you'd believe it.
Ok I forgot, the Australian fauna completely changes every 100km or so in its response to fire.

Remember Batlow, the town labeled "undefendable" by the authorities, but a dozen or so of my wife's rels and their friends did an amazing job saving most of the still in use structures. Unfortunately a guy from another town who came to help had a heart attack defending the town.

I tell you what, I'm going to Batlow in 8 weeks from Canberra, then driving to Brisbane. You send me your email address and I'll send you photos of all the denuded national parks and forests that we drive through along the way that support your theory. Smile
RTT_Rules
Russell Crowe posted photos of his 'damaged' property at Byron Bay and all I could see was a large patch of scorched lawn.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The Red Cross have been accused of hoarding the money given to them for the bush-fire victims - Daily Telegraph (pay-wall):

Generous Australians donated more than $95 million to the Red Cross Disaster Relief and Recovery Fund but The Daily Telegraph can reveal less than a third of the money has been committed to fire victims.

There are also no guarantees that the remaining funds donated will be handed out this summer.

The Salvation Army were accused of doing the exact same thing after the Black Saturday bush-fires saying that they needed the public's donations for their own administrative purposes instead spending the government's money on the victims (didn't go down well at that time). I can't say I'm surprised about the Red Cross given their unsavory history of in doing things like selling plasma products for profit and taking money for aid projects that they subsequently don't deliver.
  billybaxter Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Crowd's property is at Nana Glen, not Byron Bay. And if Byron Bay isn't Australia, where is it?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Byron Bay is NOT Australia! Russell Crowe is NOT Australian! How many times have I told you that the internet isn't representative of reality and you still ignore me - you could be told that Meghan Markle is a nice person via the internet and you'd believe it.
Ok I forgot, the Australian fauna completely changes every 100km or so in its response to fire.

Remember Batlow, the town labeled "undefendable" by the authorities, but a dozen or so of my wife's rels and their friends did an amazing job saving most of the still in use structures. Unfortunately a guy from another town who came to help had a heart attack defending the town.

I tell you what, I'm going to Batlow in 8 weeks from Canberra, then driving to Brisbane. You send me your email address and I'll send you photos of all the denuded national parks and forests that we drive through along the way that support your theory. Smile
Russell Crowe posted photos of his 'damaged' property at Byron Bay and all I could see was a large patch of scorched lawn.
don_dunstan
could see the burnt stumps for the green forest in the background?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Crowd's property is at Nana Glen, not Byron Bay. And if Byron Bay isn't Australia, where is it?
billybaxter
Nana Glen is Coffs Harbour, the most expensive regional city in Australia; identical in every way to the very-much-ruined Byron Bay. Those places are a kind of privileged enclave for the very rich - and nobody else. It's a shame because northern NSW used to be an alternative dope-smoking hippy paradise, now it's just a stuck-up 'exclusive' set of villages for people with wads of cash and nobody else.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Crowd's property is at Nana Glen, not Byron Bay. And if Byron Bay isn't Australia, where is it?
Nana Glen is Coffs Harbour, the most expensive regional city in Australia; identical in every way to the very-much-ruined Byron Bay. Those places are a kind of privileged enclave for the very rich - and nobody else. It's a shame because northern NSW used to be an alternative dope-smoking hippy paradise, now it's just a stuck-up 'exclusive' set of villages for people with wads of cash and nobody else.
don_dunstan
No, Byron Bay is a small rural town in an enviable location, but with a permanent population of around 10,000.

Coffs Harbour is a major regional city with a permanent population approaching 80,000. It features decent tertiary education, health care and transport links including a busy airport immediately adjacent. And a quick search on realestate.com shows large, good quality modern homes on large blocks available for less than $600k.

I'm familiar with the area.

One again, you're talking through your r r r r r r's.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I'm familiar with the area.
DirtyBallast
Of course you are, I can smell it from here.
  billybaxter Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
So, rich people decide to live in a beautiful area rather than a dump, and you resent them for it? How does their wealth make them any less Australian? And you can drive into the town, book a hotel room there, have a drink in a bar, walk the main Street, visit the beaches... I fail to see how Byron is any less exclusive than before. Could you walk into anybody's hous when the hippies, or the dairy farmers who preceded them lived there?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
So, rich people decide to live in a beautiful area rather than a dump, and you resent them for it? How does their wealth make them any less Australian? And you can drive into the town, book a hotel room there, have a drink in a bar, walk the main Street, visit the beaches... I fail to see how Byron is any less exclusive than before. Could you walk into anybody's hous when the hippies, or the dairy farmers who preceded them lived there?
billybaxter
Not true. Unless you look like Chris Helmsworth and have a four-acre house they won't serve you in the shops any more. I made the mistake of dressing up like Liam Helmsworth once and they wouldn't serve me my triple de-caf almond milk latte because I wasn't famous enough and my muscles didn't ripple correctly.
  billybaxter Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
What rubbish! More likely they could tell from your clothes and hairstyle that you couldn't afford anything in their shop so decided not to waste their time. Positive point, you mustn't have looked like a shoplifter! You sound like a bitter loser who resents people who have worked hard to create a shopping experience that works. Maybe you'd prefer the worker bloke in the pub paradise of an Australian Soviet where the creativity and positive energy that has created Byron would be banned and all shops would be equal, be they in Logan or Byron.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Not true. Unless you look like Chris Helmsworth and have a four-acre house they won't serve you in the shops any more. I made the mistake of dressing up like Liam Helmsworth once and they wouldn't serve me my triple de-caf almond milk latte because I wasn't famous enough and my muscles didn't ripple correctly.
don_dunstan
Starting a new career as a fiction writer Don?
I'm a 79-year-old, bald-headed shortarse in jeans, polo shirt and sneakers, and they served me. I wonder if its because I was polite to them.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

What rubbish! More likely they could tell from your clothes and hairstyle that you couldn't afford anything in their shop so decided not to waste their time. Positive point, you mustn't have looked like a shoplifter! You sound like a bitter loser who resents people who have worked hard to create a shopping experience that works. Maybe you'd prefer the worker bloke in the pub paradise of an Australian Soviet where the creativity and positive energy that has created Byron would be banned and all shops would be equal, be they in Logan or Byron.
billybaxter
Billy, can be a mistake, judging a book by the cover. Was looking for a car in about 2004, approaching $60K. Simple transaction, no trade and cash sale.
Dressed the part, mullet shorts and no shoes.
Salespersons looked up, and promptly ignored me. Wasn’t given an opportunity to be polite or otherwise.
Proceeded up the Windsor road, to the next dealer and bought the car, that afternoon.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I made the mistake of dressing up like Liam Helmsworth once and they wouldn't serve me my triple de-caf almond milk latte because I wasn't famous enough and my muscles didn't ripple correctly.
don_dunstan
Maybe if you'd tried dressing like a Hemsworth instead....but nahh, the reason you didn't get served is that people can see right through you.

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