If the original NBN plan had been left in place, it would have been completed years ago and we would already be well on the way to deprecating FTA TV. We shouldn't need to be waiting for 5G.
Australia is 188 times the size of Switzerland - not sure if that's a valid comparison. And I'm yet to see if 5G will deliver what is promised - I've heard mixed things about its reliability. I agree with you in a general sense that the NBN was a waste of money - they're talking at the moment about the fact that the value will probably be written down to zero at some stage in the future because of the new technologies coming on stream.
Free-to-air TV has seen their audience stabilise in the last few years as they cope with the impact of things like Netflix and Stan - it certainly isn't going to die any time soon. FTA TV has only stabilised because too much of Australia's internet infrastructure is yet to be upgraded to third world standard.
Once the 5G rollout covers the majority of the population and people can start unplugging from the NBN, I predict that FTA TV and cable will be switched off within 5 years like Switzerland has done.
Foxtel via cable/satellite is already on its last legs despite the failure of the NBN, Cricket Australia and the AFL already have contingency plans for a shared services production company to take over digital coverage for both sports if Foxtel doesn't survive to the end of the current rights deal.
So yeah, it will take longer than it should have. I'd put that down to governmental incompetence though, not the size of the country.
The people I've talked to who have gone to 5G phones early are having problems, only because the bandwidth is not there and too many customers were allowed to switch over too quickly. It won't be a problem once the telcos start to accelerate the rollout.
It only takes 5sec in Google to see FTA TV in Oz is following the global trend and likely in the early stages of decline.https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/free-to-air-television-ratings-tumble-as-viewers-get-picky-20150409-1mh7plhttp://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-audiences-as-free-tv-viewing-continues-its-decline-58051
I looked up Swiss, they don't appear to be closing terrestrial FTA, but rather change of format.
In the UAE, FTA or terrestrial TV is I believe defunct. There maybe still some transmission but you don't see TV antennas anywhere apart from on top of the few old buildings that exist. We all have cable TV provided as internet connection package from our provider "Du". The TV stations used to cost $5-10 a month more, so not worth not having but now they don't even give you the option to opt out. We have basic package and it includes over 200 channels, about 20 in English, however I find the content repetitive and likewise the kids and some of our fav channels have been removed.
As a result these days the kids, mine and others rarely watch TV, yep we have a 55" TV (only TV in house) they hardly ever use (I would have killed for a +20" TV as a kid), they'd rather watch Youtube or Netflixs on their devices. Netflix here costs $16/mth for 4 devices in HD. These days I find myself rarely Watching TV and mostly Netflixs or a few Youtube channels related to rockets, EV's etc.
If there is something I want to watch and I cannot find on either Du, Netflix, Youtube etc including pay option, I rip it out of Pirate Bay. The only reason we have to do this is because some broadcasters allow you to stream only in that country, ABC is one, BBC another, makers of "Naked and Afraid" another.
Of the technologies expected to go extinct by 2030, included in the list is the current phone system (replaced with VOiP) and terrestrial TV and radio replaced by the likes of pay on demand, streaming and booming podcast/Youtuber industry all using the internet, both fixed cable and wireless technologies.
The govt will see decreasing license fees or capability to pay for radio and TV in coming years along with the govt's influence over content, time of broadcast, children's content etc as we quickly move to a global content platform.