The corona virus COVID-19

 
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Victoria has recorded a record number of Coronavirus cases, there have been 532 cases in the past 24 hours, including 6 deaths.
lsrailfan

Where do authorities go from here?

SA is already closing their border totally now even for South Australians

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  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Victoria has recorded a record number of Coronavirus cases, there have been 532 cases in the past 24 hours, including 6 deaths.

Where do authorities go from here?

SA is already closing their border totally now even for South Australians
bevans
With all due respect, there are too many lunatics down there that are not heading the advice, and not doing the right thing, these are the ones that listen to the Andrew Bolt's, and Alan Joneses of the world, these are mainstream media people that also think the virus is drummed up, so what hope do you have???!!!
  Carnot Minister for Railways

At least the curve is linear and not logarithmic.

I'm keeping a close eye on Sweden. Very interesting to see it spike badly back in June.  But deaths peaked in April there and new cases are much less now than a month ago.

Vic is looking more like Japan in its trajectory.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

At least the curve is linear and not logarithmic.

I'm keeping a close eye on Sweden. Very interesting to see it spike badly back in June.  But deaths peaked in April there and new cases are much less now than a month ago.

Vic is looking more like Japan in its trajectory.
Carnot
Yep Vic is looking like Japan and Israel. Sweden is not looking too different to Western EU countries even though it didn't lock down. Even the US hasn't had as many deaths per million as some of the hard lockdown western EU countries.

It is actually quite difficult to draw conclusions about the best way forward, because not all countries with lockdowns have done well whilst some that have not done lockdowns aren't fairing much worse, or are even better.

The only consistent pattern I can see is that taking too long to protect the old and vulnerable is a path to disaster.

The conclusion may ultimately depend on if a vaccine ever comes about. If there is one, then the New Zealand Stage 4 approach looks like the right one. If there isn't a vaccine then the polar opposite Sweden approach looks like being closest to the right one...
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Some more on Sweden's experience: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Some more on Sweden's experience: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
Carnot
It'll be interesting to watch and see if Sweden get a so called "2nd wave" over the coming weeks/months.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Victoria has recorded a record number of Coronavirus cases, there have been 532 cases in the past 24 hours, including 6 deaths.

Where do authorities go from here?

SA is already closing their border totally now even for South Australians
bevans

With all due respect, the Vic/Mlb lockdown has been half arsed.  It's an attempt to make the minimal amount of necessary intervention, and it's had exactly that impact.  The doubling rate of COVID19 appears to have dropped from roughly twice a week to every two weeks.  This is no small achievement, but at the same time it's the worst of both worlds.  As things stand, the current level of movement restrictions are not quite enough to suppress the disease.

So, things that could be done from here in terms of tightening:

  • All schools of all ages move to online learning.  Education can be delivered online, so WTF not?
  • Public Transport can be shut down.  but, but, but, but ....  WTF is it needed for if people are staying home?
  • Shopping trips can be restricted to once a fortnight per household (monthly would be better).  A Gvt assisted delivery service would be helpful with this.
  • Doctor's Certificate required for a non-remote medical visits - subject to DoH review.
  • Restrictions on the maximum number of people in indoor offices: like 1 per room per day (including cleaning, maintenance, and even iced vovo delivery services).  YTF are accountants or lawyers working in offices anywhere?
  • "Essential" Service Workers with exemptions should also face *tougher* restrictions at home.  No-one from their entire households should go out for any reason, other than to work at the Nursing home.  They must have their food and essentials delivered.  
  • Andrews can do his daily press briefing from his bedroom.

If all that happens, in 8-10 weeks it'll be gone, as will *all* restrictions and you can all go to the footy.  If not, some level of restrictions, voluntary or otherwise, will stay with everyone potentially for years.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Victoria has recorded a record number of Coronavirus cases, there have been 532 cases in the past 24 hours, including 6 deaths.

Where do authorities go from here?

SA is already closing their border totally now even for South Australians
bevans
Today's talk seems to be around shutting down industries with large numbers of workers who are not complying. That could be just a shot across the bows of the bosses who are penalising casual workers who call in sick

BTW it seems that I was completely wrong about yesterday's Vic testing regime. I was let down by not one but 2 pieces of info being wrong when I said that Vic had processed 40000 tests as opposed to conducted 40000

The first was my interpretation of the Premiers own wording when he said processed not conducted. Then I checked the ABC website which was reporting around 25000 tests which then mysteriously shot up to 42000. I put 1 and 1 together and got 3.

So it would seem that there are still a lot of results to come through, yesterday was another record testing day for Australia with Vic and NSW doing the lions share, NSW very impressive considering the low case numbers there, clearly people are looking at what is happening south of the border and saying NO THANKS!
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Some more on Sweden's experience: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
Carnot

Sweden's deaths per 1M population is still less than Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy, with virtually no lockdown at all. By their own admission the main problem was that they were too slow to lock down aged care.

Countries that have been shambolic like Brazil, Mexico and the USA still have lower deaths per 1M population...for now.

Sweden's economy has slowed, but is still doing better than other EU countries. If the other Nordics also followed Sweden's model, Sweden would be doing even better as it wouldn't be economically isolated. Arguably much of the economic slowdown in Sweden is because of their neighbors lockdowns.

There is a strong argument that Sweden got it close to right...but there is still more to play out yet.
  doyle Chief Train Controller

Economy economy economy
It is still a fabricated construct
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Chairman Dan is looking really washed out and tired the poor guy it must be a hard slog he needs a day off.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Economy economy economy
It is still a fabricated construct
doyle
Eh...no it isn't.
  doyle Chief Train Controller

Eh... I yes it is
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Economy economy economy
It is still a fabricated construct
doyle
And without it where would we be? Living an agrarian life style or eeking out an existence hunting and gathering?

Or would you prefer a feudal existence m'lord where we exchange our labour for the privilege of occupying a small part of your Lordship's manor grounds for our short and meaningless lives? Laughing
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Chairman Dan is looking really washed out and tired the poor guy it must be a hard slog he needs a day off.
bevans
Yeah.  He needs to take a breather.

Let (the rather incompetent IMO) Mikakos face the media pack...
  doyle Chief Train Controller

Fact is that the economy is a fabricated construct

1 health first
2 mental health second
3 a distant third the economy
  doyle Chief Train Controller

Dan is not washed out he seems
p I s s e d off
  NSWGR8022 Deputy Commissioner

Location: From the lands of Journalism and Free Speech
Fact is that the economy is a fabricated construct

1 health first
2 mental health second
3 a distant third the economy
doyle
You are right actually but at some point the cost of all of this virus has to be paid for by taxpayers it is a difficult issue.

Radio talk last week about considering the federal government start new businesses and employ those without a job who would ordinarily be on job seeker.  Not a bad idea considering their output would form part of the GDP calculation.

Let's go back to build railways and trains and operating services.  Even today there is an article advocating for electrification of the Victoria rail network.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Brilliant.

  doyle Chief Train Controller

Privatisation has worked out really well.. Not
Casualisation has worked out really well.. Not

These people we vote for want everything to 'snach back' to how life was before. it can't go back, when will people get it that the system is skewed towards the rich getting richer, the middle working to get things that the rich have and the middle has to keep working just to tread water but thinking they ar well off... idiots

Would any of you trust the liberals with IR... not me
Only a fool would trust them wit whats coming next

The libs will use this to smash what's left of the unions and what is left of a fairish society just to look after the already obscenely wealthy, and the sheepeople will say OK it gotta be done for the economy because you say it loud and long enough the people will be brainwashed most are already brain dead

We need better leaders a Smart productive self sufficient country

Good luck with that
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Brilliant.

michaelgm
Gold LaughingVery Happy
  doyle Chief Train Controller

And people really don't understand federation
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Some more on Sweden's experience: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133

Belgium
Mr. Lane
Belgium is a special case, and they may not turn out to be that bad, Belgium have an exceptionally broad definition of 'corona fatality', Belgium are far more likely to  be counting deaths which in the end were not caused by COVID-19. I think many other nations (certainly Indonesia) are likely doing the opposite, and potentially offloading COVID-19 deaths to any other attributable cause.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

An interesting aspect about Belgium is they are starting to see an emergence of a second-wave.

Death rate is very low now, thankfully.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Just of note, I heard that Brett Sutton reckons the 532 cases that we saw today, may indeed be the peak, and that it may get better from here on in, I guess we wait and see.

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