Daniel Andrews Imploding Act

 
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

What will be the end cost of this lockdown and business damage.
Forget the cost. What is the monetary value of your life? If just one life is saved it is worth every cent.
Then you should ban people from driving cars, riding bikes and participating in a whole other raft of activities.

Last year 310,000 people presented to hospitals with influenza and around 900 Australians died of influenza related illness https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-worst-flu-season-on-record/11949320

So by your logic I guess Australia should move to stage 4 restrictions on a permanent basis. If just one life is worth every cent we might as well torch the economy and just all stay at home forever Smile
BrentonGolding
This was the conundrum in the video I posted in the COVID thread: excess deaths each winter due to respiratory illness can vary greatly: there have been flu seasons as bad as this "COVID season" so there is an argument that if we shut down for COVID, then why isn't the case made to shut down every winter?

COVID was new and initially fast moving, which caused initial panic, but we know more now. There is also a growing body of opinion that the countries badly hit in March-April hadn't had bad flu seasons for a few years, so they had a "ripe" and vulnerable population starting 2020.

People need to update their COVID thinking now and get out of the panic mindset. Once Stage 4 is done, we need to move quickly back to zero restrictions and not prolong the pain for no reason.

We also need a change of leadership in Victoria once this is done. I don't think Dan can bring the state long with him now.

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  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
This was the conundrum in the video I posted in the COVID thread: excess deaths each winter due to respiratory illness can vary greatly: there have been flu seasons as bad as this "COVID season" so there is an argument that if we shut down for COVID, then why isn't the case made to shut down every winter?
"Mr. Lane"
Exactly how many deaths would you classify as "excess"? How would you arrive at a definition?
  fzr560 Chief Train Controller

...proletariat...
I had to Google what that meant! Should be a word used over at RB! Razz
Thanks KR.
I am pleased to have my valiant attempts to APPEAR knowledgeable (ie a clever dick) here on RP recognised. Rolling Eyes
I must devise an unexplained acronym to replace 'proletariat' in some future useless post in order to maintain my newly attained standing.
Stay safe Comrade. Smile

PS: Too many letters to fit on RB.
YM-Mundrabilla
Alas, not an acronym, but I'm sure I've seen the proletariat abbreviated to "the pros." As in "The pros are getting restless, tonight."
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

This was the conundrum in the video I posted in the COVID thread: excess deaths each winter due to respiratory illness can vary greatly: there have been flu seasons as bad as this "COVID season" so there is an argument that if we shut down for COVID, then why isn't the case made to shut down every winter?
Exactly how many deaths would you classify as "excess"? How would you arrive at a definition?
Valvegear
It is not me arriving at the definition, it is a definition used by statisticians: it is the number or % of the deaths in a year that is above the recent average (5 years seems to be the common benchmark).

"The analysis of more than 20 European countries — including the four nations of the United Kingdom — found that England’s death rate was 7.55 percent higher this year through the end of May, compared with its five-year average. Spain was next, with a 6.65 percent increase over its average. Scotland was 5.11 percent above its average and Belgium 3.89 percent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/excess-deaths-coronavirus-europe-england/2020/07/30/31b1e622-d25f-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html

This is less than 1 additional death per 10 in the population over the course of a year primarily among the very old and frail who are already very susceptible to other routine respiratory illnesses. There are comparable bad flu seasons to this.

And its not like the numbers point to this sustained slightly-above-average excess death rate due to COVID continuing...there are very few deaths happening in the EU at all now.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Dan has now extended the "State of Disaster" out to Sept 13.  He may as well add it to all new Car Registration plates...
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

What will be the end cost of this lockdown and business damage.
Forget the cost. What is the monetary value of your life? If just one life is saved it is worth every cent.
Do you seriously believe this?
Absolutely. If we all get sick and many of us die, of what use is whatever is left of the economy?
It will be good for the 99.9% of people who wont die.

Anyway you have changed your statement...first you are saying saving just one life is worth total destruction of the economy, then you are talking about "if we all get sick."

The vast majority of people who catch COVID have no symptoms, a smaller number have mild symptoms. People should really give up on this "we are all gonna get sick if we catch it" fear-mongering line.
Two different statements.
Currently 25,637,634 cases and 854,772 deaths is enough reason to be fearful of this virus.
Source
I am quite aware of that site, it is where I go to check the numbers every week or so. Less than a million people globally have died in about 10 months since this virus broke out. About 60 million people die each year globally from all causes.

I don't think that is cause to be "fearful," especially when case numbers are likely underrepresented by an order of magnitude and the global daily deaths are in decline.

This time next year COVID-19 wont be in the media, but the economy will be...
Mr. Lane
Mr Lane. Because no one knew about this virus. it was a big unknown and it is highly contagious. It is alright for you to say with hindsight, that it does not affect most people but early on trough this cycle, no one knew this for sure and indeed many "young people" has died also.

I hope we will be able to return as normal as soon as possible.


Michael
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bored at home
Dan has now extended the "State of Disaster" out to Sept 13.  He may as well add it to all new Car Registration plates...
Carnot
Wrong. Sept 13 is the end of the existing 6 week declaration.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
...proletariat...
I had to Google what that meant! Should be a word used over at RB! Razz
Thanks KR.
I am pleased to have my valiant attempts to APPEAR knowledgeable (ie a clever dick) here on RP recognised. Rolling Eyes
I must devise an unexplained acronym to replace 'proletariat' in some future useless post in order to maintain my newly attained standing.
Stay safe Comrade. Smile

PS: Too many letters to fit on RB.
Alas, not an acronym, but I'm sure I've seen the proletariat abbreviated to "the pros." As in "The pros are getting restless, tonight."
fzr560
Agreed but 'pros' to me means 'professionals' (or 'prostitutes' perhaps). Laughing

Either way everyone is getting restless!
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
This was the conundrum in the video I posted in the COVID thread: excess deaths each winter due to respiratory illness can vary greatly: there have been flu seasons as bad as this "COVID season" so there is an argument that if we shut down for COVID, then why isn't the case made to shut down every winter?
Exactly how many deaths would you classify as "excess"? How would you arrive at a definition?
Valvegear
In the context of the above, I would personally use a 5 year rolling average. I believe NSW Health uses something similar.

For example, for Influenza:
2014, Deaths: 189
2015, Deaths: 222
2016, Deaths: 273
2017, Deaths: 1181
2018, Deaths: 148
2019, Deaths: 902
Source data

You can see for CY2017 there were an average 403 deaths due to influenza in the last 5 years, so there were 778 excess deaths due to Influenza that year. Repeating the process for CY2019 you find a 5 year average of 545, with 357 excess deaths due to influenza last year.

So looking at that in the context of COVID, gives an average of 486 fatalities due to influenza per year, but even on a bad year, say for 2017 or 2019, we did nothing unusual. Sure if you were "at risk" you might have got the flu jab, but we didn't lock our nation down. We didn't exclude everyone from nursing homes. We didn't erect "hard borders" because someone is scared about his people catching the flu.

The response to COVID is waaaaay out of proportion to the risk the nation faces with the result the financial response will still be being paid for by my grandchildren!.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
This was the conundrum in the video I posted in the COVID thread: excess deaths each winter due to respiratory illness can vary greatly: there have been flu seasons as bad as this "COVID season" so there is an argument that if we shut down for COVID, then why isn't the case made to shut down every winter?
Exactly how many deaths would you classify as "excess"? How would you arrive at a definition?
In the context of the above, I would personally use a 5 year rolling average. I believe NSW Health uses something similar.

For example, for Influenza:
2014, Deaths: 189
2015, Deaths: 222
2016, Deaths: 273
2017, Deaths: 1181
2018, Deaths: 148
2019, Deaths: 902
Source data

You can see for CY2017 there were an average 403 deaths due to influenza in the last 5 years, so there were 778 excess deaths due to Influenza that year. Repeating the process for CY2019 you find a 5 year average of 545, with 357 excess deaths due to influenza last year.

So looking at that in the context of COVID, gives an average of 486 fatalities due to influenza per year, but even on a bad year, say for 2017 or 2019, we did nothing unusual. Sure if you were "at risk" you might have got the flu jab, but we didn't lock our nation down. We didn't exclude everyone from nursing homes. We didn't erect "hard borders" because someone is scared about his people catching the flu.

The response to COVID is waaaaay out of proportion to the risk the nation faces with the result the financial response will still be being paid for by my grandchildren!.
KRviator
I would put it to you that it is not waayy out of proportion, No I am not scared of this virus at all, but the reason why we didn't lock down the nation as it were, was because we had Vaccines for the flu over the year's that you have mentioned, this particular strain of Coronavirus has not been seen in humans before, + it is about 5 times more deadly than your seasonal flu strain, that is why we have done what we have done.
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
I would put it to you that it is not waayy out of proportion, No I am not scared of this virus at all, but the reason why we didn't lock down the nation as it were, was because we had Vaccines for the flu over the year's that you have mentioned, this particular strain of Coronavirus has not been seen in humans before, + it is about 5 times more deadly than your seasonal flu strain, that is why we have done what we have done.
lsrailfan
I have to disagree.

The statistical value of a human life in Oz is about $4.6MAUD. The JobKeeper subsidy alone is going to cost over $100B, but have we "saved" 21,000 people from what we've done? Then there's the thousands of people who are out of work and not eligible for it, in turn pushing up the requirement to have "saved" more people to justify the decision to lockdown, isolate, erect borders, etc.

Look at the USA, they certainly aren't a shining light of COVID response, not by a long shot. But they are tracking towards a death rate of 600/1Mpop (currently 570). Apply that to us here in Australia and you get 600*25.5=15,300 deaths from COVID-19. To "save" that number of people, our total response to COVID must come in at less than $70 billion dollars. We are so far above that it beggars belief. Heck, even Sweden who did, realistically, sweet FA in response, is only 575/M.

Had we done something similar, yes there would have been a lot of fatalities, I am not going to deny that at all, but we as a nation would be in a much, better position than we are now, what with border closures, pregnant women turned away from a hospital or mothers being denied entry to a hospital to see her 2 day old baby because she lives in the "wrong" state.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I would put it to you that it is not waayy out of proportion, No I am not scared of this virus at all, but the reason why we didn't lock down the nation as it were, was because we had Vaccines for the flu over the year's that you have mentioned, this particular strain of Coronavirus has not been seen in humans before, + it is about 5 times more deadly than your seasonal flu strain, that is why we have done what we have done.
I have to disagree.

The statistical value of a human life in Oz is about $4.6MAUD. The JobKeeper subsidy alone is going to cost over $100B, but have we "saved" 21,000 people from what we've done? Then there's the thousands of people who are out of work and not eligible for it, in turn pushing up the requirement to have "saved" more people to justify the decision to lockdown, isolate, erect borders, etc.

Look at the USA, they certainly aren't a shining light of COVID response, not by a long shot. But they are tracking towards a death rate of 600/1Mpop (currently 570). Apply that to us here in Australia and you get 600*25.5=15,300 deaths from COVID-19. To "save" that number of people, our total response to COVID must come in at less than $70 billion dollars. We are so far above that it beggars belief. Heck, even Sweden who did, realistically, sweet FA in response, is only 575/M.

Had we done something similar, yes there would have been a lot of fatalities, I am not going to deny that at all, but we as a nation would be in a much, better position than we are now, what with border closures, pregnant women turned away from a hospital or mothers being denied entry to a hospital to see her 2 day old baby because she lives in the "wrong" state.
KRviator
I don't know who is right or wrong on this whole thing, I don't think you can even define a "right" or "wrong" response, we'll just have to wait until this whole pandemic thing finishes and then judge for ourselves.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.
World Health Organization

Assuming COVID-19 was allowed to spread the same as seasonal influenza, the above ratio means that for every death from seasonal influenza there would be 30 from COVID-19. In a season of 500 influenza deaths you would have 15,000 COVID-19 deaths.

By way of comparison with the US and its minimalist approach (which still has had a negative effect on its economy), the US has had 187,000 COVID-19 deaths in a population of 330 million. Pro-rata Australia with a population of 26 million would have had 16,000 deaths had it used the same preventative practices.

Seasonal influenza has a vaccine, matched as far as is practicable with the strains circulating at the time. If COVID-19 had a vaccine with similar effectiveness then most people would be prepared to live with the consequences of taking no other preventative action.




Proles
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Proles
kitchgp

"The Proles and animals are free...if there is hope, it lies among the Proles."
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
"The Proles and animals are free...if there is hope, it lies among the Proles."
"Mr. Lane"
Oh, I dunno - the animals are generally better-behaved.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
"The Proles and animals are free...if there is hope, it lies among the Proles."
Oh, I dunno - the animals are generally better-behaved.
Valvegear
There's a lot to be said for blissful ignorance, I think it's underated. Especially in times such as these.......
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
Carnot
The national economy last quarter shrank by 7% - that's massive. And the impact of the shut-down of an entire state isn't really calculated into that yet.

I can't imagine what it must be like for the people stuck in those high rises all across Melbourne. Even when we had restrictions here we were still allowed out without needing an official excuse but those poor buggers have to be stuck in their apartments 23 hours of the day... I'd be crawling up the walls by now.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
Carnot
Yeah, there's a lot of people in Melbourne really starting to hurt now in terms of mental well being. Take this for example from the ABC Live Covid blog this morning

"I’m really struggling in Melbourne. I live alone and have been working from home in a 1 bedroom for 6 months. My family are overseas. Most of my close friends live out of state. This last part of the lockdown has been brutal. And now I realise I’m in trouble - I feel like I am going insane. The only people I interact with in person are supermarket staff. I was hanging out for Sep 13th but now I see from leaks that the rules will barely changed. Only 2 hours out - one designated person allowed to visit. Even if I had someone to designate it wouldn’t be enough. I am horrified that we do not have a vote or say - my own Heath is now on the line and I have no choice. I’d rather be at risk of getting the virus than this.I don’t need Lifeline - I need some control over my life.We have gone from a flatten the curve strategy in Australia to ‘severe suppression’ and the impact for us in Melbourne is beyond any figure you can put on it.I am going to be the first in line at a protest - I’ve been pushed beyond what I can cope with. I’m sure it is worst for others.I truly hope you post my comment because I need a voice - I need to know that others outside of Melbourne understand how serious this is becoming. I am sure I cannot be the only one feeling like this.Before this lockdown I was a very liberal progressive leaning person politically.I’m now finding myself swinging far right on my views ...Things are really getting very intense here for all of us.."

That could have been written by any number of people that I have spoken to over the last week or so, people are crawling up the walls, whether they be alone at home or at home with partner and kids.

Adult kids of a guy i was speaking to up here talking about training their kids to fight and getting guns ready for unrest, conspiracy theories gaining traction with people who I wouldn't have thought would believe in them, it is getting ugly down there

It ain't good.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Yeah, I know of quite a number of people in Melbourne who have told me they have had enough.  Patience is wearing very thin for so many.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
The national economy last quarter shrank by 7% - that's massive. And the impact of the shut-down of an entire state isn't really calculated into that yet.

I can't imagine what it must be like for the people stuck in those high rises all across Melbourne. Even when we had restrictions here we were still allowed out without needing an official excuse but those poor buggers have to be stuck in their apartments 23 hours of the day... I'd be crawling up the walls by now.
don_dunstan
No one is adhering to the 23 hours a day inside rule. It is completely unenforceable. Between 5AM and 8PM its basically no different than Stage 3, except loads of small businesses where the virus was never spreading are shut for some reason.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
The national economy last quarter shrank by 7% - that's massive. And the impact of the shut-down of an entire state isn't really calculated into that yet.

I can't imagine what it must be like for the people stuck in those high rises all across Melbourne. Even when we had restrictions here we were still allowed out without needing an official excuse but those poor buggers have to be stuck in their apartments 23 hours of the day... I'd be crawling up the walls by now.
No one is adhering to the 23 hours a day inside rule. It is completely unenforceable. Between 5AM and 8PM its basically no different than Stage 3, except loads of small businesses where the virus was never spreading are shut for some reason.
Mr. Lane
Sigh... I do get the feeling that the Melbourne folk will be waiting with "baseball bats" at the next State Election for Andrews.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Vic numbers back over 100 with 113 new cases and 15 deaths.  Will Melbourne will ever get out of Stage 4?  I reckon mass rebellion if there's no path out of it soon.
The national economy last quarter shrank by 7% - that's massive. And the impact of the shut-down of an entire state isn't really calculated into that yet.

I can't imagine what it must be like for the people stuck in those high rises all across Melbourne. Even when we had restrictions here we were still allowed out without needing an official excuse but those poor buggers have to be stuck in their apartments 23 hours of the day... I'd be crawling up the walls by now.
No one is adhering to the 23 hours a day inside rule. It is completely unenforceable. Between 5AM and 8PM its basically no different than Stage 3, except loads of small businesses where the virus was never spreading are shut for some reason.
Sigh... I do get the feeling that the Melbourne folk will be waiting with "baseball bats" at the next State Election for Andrews.
lsrailfan

It has been very interesting to see peoples opinions change over the last 4 weeks...I am not sure what to make of it. Early on there was a majority sense of "we just have to do it" which has changed to "we just need this to finish."

I was ridiculed by friends and family early on for being anti-lockdown...many of those people have now "cracked" and are now angry. I was actually more annoyed early on...but have found other ways to make use of the time and cope. An extension of Stage 4 wouldn't actually bother me now...the damage has been done...

I think a few things have happened which helped to change peoples opinion on the lockdown:

  • The fact that NSW is managing the virus successfully (whist the contact tracers here are using paper and fax machines)
  • The fact that New Zealand had an outbreak after such early Stage 4 success...
  • No certainty of an end date or any communication of a plan


The weather is now getting better here as well...this is bringing people outside in big numbers for "exercise." There are now some people off the main streets openly not wearing masks...

Personally, I am disappointed to see people "crack" so easily...but also kinda happy in a weird way that people are breaking the rules.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
NSW can do so well with contact tracing (so too QLD and when we needed to do it, SA) because NSW is currently trending about 70 cases PER WEEK.

While Victoria maintains more than that PER DAY contact tracing by any method is pretty much impossible. One contact missed in a day is maybe 15 contacts (plus their contacts) the next day.

That Victoria can still see numbers over 100 per day even now suggests that there are still way too many Victorians not doing the right thing - and is most certainly nothing to be happy, weirdly or otherwise, about.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
'The weather is now getting better here as well...this is bringing people outside in big numbers for "exercise." There are now some people off the main streets openly not wearing masks...'
The weather is going to be the killer. I want to get out and am happy to follow all the mask/social distance rules etc. But only this morning on a 3 km walk occupying ~ 45 minutes I counted about 40 people out and about.
Of that 40:
  • 7 were not wearing masks - all young females including some with small children; the majority being of a particular background.
  • 2 others had their noses exposed but mouths covered
  • 1 old biddy put on a mask when she thought someone was around
  • 1 maskless silly old bastard* was wheeling a bike
ie around 25% were not following the rules.


* No not me.Smile

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