So, it sounds like 6 tph added to existing Metro line from Albion to MM1 will be airport trains (HCMT).MM1 has a theoretical capacity of 36TPH, actual of 32- 34 TPH. Higher the TPH, lower the reliability when a train level 5 seconds late from a station.
MM1 will have a max capacity of 24 tph, so a big percentage of those will end up at Tullamarine. What was the tph forecast for Sunbury trains? And then you have to factor in Melton sparks as well down the track....
I can see the logic of taking much of the Geetroit trains away from RRL to free up some capacity there which might include Melton and Wyndham Vale sparks on the RRL path as well.
Airport has 6 TPH
Sunbury has 12TPH
Leaves space for additional Sunbury trains in the future and Melton ending up in MM1 short term.
Its good to finally get a project announced and under way (im sure dan is hoping before he goes to the polls). This sets up a series of upgrades and projects over the next 10 years in the west. The consortium may be dead, the Sunshine - CBD Link is not. The government has taken the sensible option of building the project over many years as needed. The missing piece to this puzzle is any announcement on the Western Rail Plan and how SRL will play into Sunshine.
Im not sure if we will see any movement on the Western Rail Plan this year, the government may be hoping that the additional trains from the BLU and reduced patronage from COVID will give them a little time. Well before SRL ever makes it to Sunshine, the station is going to need a major reconfiguration to accomodate future Melton or WV MM1 Services being in the right place. With the announcement the Some Geelong Trains will run via Newport, this suggest that RRL will be sparked to cater for WV and Ballarat Services; With Melton going into MM1. MM1 day one is scheduled to be in 2025, if all goes well, this still gives the government a year or two before they begin construction on dedicated tracks to Melton. As any upgrade is useless unless MM1 is up and going.
Come 2025 we should have Melton, Airport (2029) & Sunbury running via MM1. This freeing up capacity for a 20 minute off peak service to Ballarat and increased peak services to WV.
Im a bit perplexed it will take 9 years to build 8km of above ground rail, a couple of station rebuilds and 4km of underground tunnels into the Airport. With Airport Trains going into MM1 works beyond Sunshine are already well advanced. This all just shows the BS that has been going on. If the project has been committed to years ago, we would have Airport coming online with MM1.
As for the Sunshine - CBD Link, in 30 years time when Melton and Sunbury need those 6 TPH, Bendigo and Ballarat need additional city capacity we might see the project built.
As for the Geelong Announcement.
MM2 seems to be on the governments radar, there are only a couple of spare TPH through Newport so we might see 2 Geelong Trains Express from Lara to Newport to crawl behind a Metro SAS to the city. This brings MM2 back on to the radar to be announced at the 2026 election, paving the way for Geelong service to run through MM2. MM2 may be staged to be built Newport to Southern Cross as stage 1, then on to Clifton Hill as stage 2.
A few questions that the government will need to answer as the project develops over the next year. Junction Upgrade at Newport, LX removals between Newport and North Melbourne, Altona Loop Duplication.
How does SRL play into this projects RRL was designed and built to be qauded, will SRL take these additional tracks.
When and if all Geelong trains run via the new alingment via Newport this leaves WV on RRL to be sparked and run by Metro. Leaving them to mix with Ballarat services, which should not be an issue as long as the flat junction at Deer Park is upgraded. All Services run express from Sunshine to Footscray then on to Southern Cross, issue with Ballarat services being slowed by Metro.
Lots of exciting news today, but at the same time a lot of unknown about how all these projects are going to interact and work alongside each other. If only we had some sort of legislation that required the government to release an overarching transport plan.