Russia is still collapsing, so Russia do 30% more trade with the Chinese (hey Don, fill me in, doesn’t Australia doing too much trade with China represent a problem according to you?) big deal, that’s about an extra 40-59 billion USD in trade, Russia have lost 150 billion USD in trade with the USA alone and 250+ billion USD with the EU.Again, Russia isn't going to fall over economically because of an embargo from the West, Aaron. I could be wrong but they've had seven years of sanctions ALREADY from the West and as Putin himself said more sanctions won't really affect them. India is buying their surplus oil, they'll get by without the West.
Russia’s trade with China now is still less than Russia’s trade with the USA before the war.
They need to be doing more like 300% more trade with China to stay on parity with where they were.
Even then, China is still only providing Chinese products if your Mercedes has increased in value 10x due to import restrictions are you going to be putting Chinese oil in it tomorrow? If you’re about to board a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg are you going to be comforted by the aircraft having brand new Chinese tyres fitted?
Russia will ‘survive’ I mean they made it through Stalin and communism with the controlled markets and restrictions and lack of personal freedom and all that, but no one sane suggests they Russia wasn’t in a better place 60 days ago.
And I'm starting to warm to our new Chinese overlords - the fact that 31% of our trade is with a totalitarian communist country isn't my problem and there's nothing I can do about it anyway (except not buy Chinese - which is almost impossible).
Objecting to Chinese military expansion is just not going to work in the longer term, they're an ascendant military power whereas the 'free world' is in decline. Reality.
The 7 years of sanctions you like to talk about do not include the seriously punitive sanctions in place today. Russian banks being shut off from the west, all international brands and the tens of thousands of jobs they provided for Russians, clothing, cars, parts for aircraft, and other large machinery. Their inflation is through the roof, the Ruble is in serious trouble, your 'average Russian', who was never really that wealthy to start with, is going to need to get really creative at stretching their Rubles real soon, they're already needing to be careful, but it's only going to get worse.
Other sanctions are potentially even more crippling, but they'll take a little time to manifest.
Can you name a Russian competitor to Siemens or GE for turbines used in energy generation?
Do you know a Russian company like Roll Royce, GE and Pratt & Whitney that make parts for aircraft turbines?
Can you think of a company besides Boeing and Airbus subsidiaries that can produce certified composite components for aircraft structural components?
Would you want to be a Russian working hard to aspire to buy a really, really nice Lada or whatever piece of smeg the Chinese make in cars - or do you think you might like an Audi/BMW/Lexus/Toyota/Citroen/Peugeot/SAAB/VW/(insert nearly every other car make here)?
Suppose you like French/Australian/Chilean/American/Scottish/Irish/Czech/German wine/spirits/beer freshly squeezed, fermented, and distilled potato juice just isn't going to be quite the same. If you're a fan of rum, I can assure you it will taste better with Coke than 'Stalingrad Kola' - if that's even a thing.
The cancellation of access to western software is potentially huge - and no, piracy won't be a short or long term workaround.
Technology lovers already love Russia, I managed to buy 100 unused, in original box Nixie tubes out of Russia, genuine 1973 date coded product two years ago - if you have cause to know what they are, you'll understand the interest.
Historians of technology are going to love it that they'll be able to buy iPhone 13s perhaps not new in box, but used, by one very careful owner in 10 years time from Russia - because the alternative will be some Chinese made piece of junk phone which, again, believe what you like of Apple/Google, you just KNOW
the government can certainly track you through a Chinese phone.
China's military is only ascending in the sense the Russian military was ascending, look at them now, ground to a halt by a military that wasn't even thought to rate on the world stage - China will not fare well in any meaningful battle, they may well have a lot of product, but none of their product is well made. Recall, their 'latest and greatest' naval assets have approximations of copies of 30 year old US technology and coupled to genuine Soviet equipment, they are literally decades behind even the Russians.