Russia vs. Ukraine - Potential War?

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:36
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Russia is still collapsing, so Russia do 30% more trade with the Chinese (hey Don, fill me in, doesn’t Australia doing too much trade with China represent a problem according to you?) big deal, that’s about an extra 40-59 billion USD in trade, Russia have lost 150 billion USD in trade with the USA alone and 250+ billion USD with the EU.

Russia’s trade with China now is still less than Russia’s trade with the USA before the war.

They need to be doing more like 300% more trade with China to stay on parity with where they were.


Even then, China is still only providing Chinese products if your Mercedes has increased in value 10x due to import restrictions are you going to be putting Chinese oil in it tomorrow? If you’re about to board a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg are you going to be comforted by the aircraft having brand new Chinese tyres fitted?

Russia will ‘survive’ I mean they made it through Stalin and communism with the controlled markets and restrictions and lack of personal freedom and all that, but no one sane suggests they Russia wasn’t in a better place 60 days ago.
Aaron
Again, Russia isn't going to fall over economically because of an embargo from the West, Aaron. I could be wrong but they've had seven years of sanctions ALREADY from the West and as Putin himself said more sanctions won't really affect them. India is buying their surplus oil, they'll get by without the West.

And I'm starting to warm to our new Chinese overlords - the fact that 31% of our trade is with a totalitarian communist country isn't my problem and there's nothing I can do about it anyway (except not buy Chinese - which is almost impossible).

Objecting to Chinese military expansion is just not going to work in the longer term, they're an ascendant military power whereas the 'free world' is in decline. Reality.

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Russia is still collapsing, so Russia do 30% more trade with the Chinese (hey Don, fill me in, doesn’t Australia doing too much trade with China represent a problem according to you?) big deal, that’s about an extra 40-59 billion USD in trade, Russia have lost 150 billion USD in trade with the USA alone and 250+ billion USD with the EU.

Russia’s trade with China now is still less than Russia’s trade with the USA before the war.

They need to be doing more like 300% more trade with China to stay on parity with where they were.


Even then, China is still only providing Chinese products if your Mercedes has increased in value 10x due to import restrictions are you going to be putting Chinese oil in it tomorrow? If you’re about to board a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg are you going to be comforted by the aircraft having brand new Chinese tyres fitted?

Russia will ‘survive’ I mean they made it through Stalin and communism with the controlled markets and restrictions and lack of personal freedom and all that, but no one sane suggests they Russia wasn’t in a better place 60 days ago.
Aaron
Informative and agree with the conclusion. We only have to talk with freinds or colleges in or from Russia to find out the place has gone to crap.

Sounds like Russia's trade with China is in the same order of USD as Australia's approx $180 B

Of course we all know trade with India and China will expand or via these 3rd party countries. But of course this will come at a price and delays. So its not a win for Russia, more so the 3rd party country.

The on and off 7 years as claimed by others was nothing compared to now.

We were buying materials in the past, sometimes some we couldn't buy for 1-2 years due to sanction, but it didn't apply to all.

Now while the UAE Govt hasn't fully signed off against the sanctions, we cannot pay them anyway.

Super yachts in UAE have lost staff as the staff cannot be paid and they cannot buy fuel and parts because either suppliers won't accept credit or in some cases some companies refuse to sell to them because of corporate directive, often in fear of recourse by others.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Russia is still collapsing, so Russia do 30% more trade with the Chinese (hey Don, fill me in, doesn’t Australia doing too much trade with China represent a problem according to you?) big deal, that’s about an extra 40-59 billion USD in trade, Russia have lost 150 billion USD in trade with the USA alone and 250+ billion USD with the EU.

Russia’s trade with China now is still less than Russia’s trade with the USA before the war.

They need to be doing more like 300% more trade with China to stay on parity with where they were.


Even then, China is still only providing Chinese products if your Mercedes has increased in value 10x due to import restrictions are you going to be putting Chinese oil in it tomorrow? If you’re about to board a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg are you going to be comforted by the aircraft having brand new Chinese tyres fitted?

Russia will ‘survive’ I mean they made it through Stalin and communism with the controlled markets and restrictions and lack of personal freedom and all that, but no one sane suggests they Russia wasn’t in a better place 60 days ago.
Again, Russia isn't going to fall over economically because of an embargo from the West, Aaron. I could be wrong but they've had seven years of sanctions ALREADY from the West and as Putin himself said more sanctions won't really affect them. India is buying their surplus oil, they'll get by without the West.

And I'm starting to warm to our new Chinese overlords - the fact that 31% of our trade is with a totalitarian communist country isn't my problem and there's nothing I can do about it anyway (except not buy Chinese - which is almost impossible).

Objecting to Chinese military expansion is just not going to work in the longer term, they're an ascendant military power whereas the 'free world' is in decline. Reality.
don_dunstan
The 7 years of sanctions you like to talk about do not include the seriously punitive sanctions in place today. Russian banks being shut off from the west, all international brands and the tens of thousands of jobs they provided for Russians, clothing, cars, parts for aircraft, and other large machinery. Their inflation is through the roof, the Ruble is in serious trouble, your 'average Russian', who was never really that wealthy to start with, is going to need to get really creative at stretching their Rubles real soon, they're already needing to be careful, but it's only going to get worse.

Other sanctions are potentially even more crippling, but they'll take a little time to manifest.

Can you name a Russian competitor to Siemens or GE for turbines used in energy generation?

Do you know a Russian company like Roll Royce, GE and Pratt & Whitney that make parts for aircraft turbines?

Can you think of a company besides Boeing and Airbus subsidiaries that can produce certified composite components for aircraft structural components?

Would you want to be a Russian working hard to aspire to buy a really, really nice Lada or whatever piece of smeg the Chinese make in cars - or do you think you might like an Audi/BMW/Lexus/Toyota/Citroen/Peugeot/SAAB/VW/(insert nearly every other car make here)?

Suppose you like French/Australian/Chilean/American/Scottish/Irish/Czech/German wine/spirits/beer freshly squeezed, fermented, and distilled potato juice just isn't going to be quite the same. If you're a fan of rum, I can assure you it will taste better with Coke than 'Stalingrad Kola' - if that's even a thing.

The cancellation of access to western software is potentially huge - and no, piracy won't be a short or long term workaround.

Technology lovers already love Russia, I managed to buy 100 unused, in original box Nixie tubes out of Russia, genuine 1973 date coded product two years ago - if you have cause to know what they are, you'll understand the interest.

Historians of technology are going to love it that they'll be able to buy iPhone 13s perhaps not new in box, but used, by one very careful owner in 10 years time from Russia - because the alternative will be some Chinese made piece of junk phone which, again, believe what you like of Apple/Google, you just KNOW the government can certainly track you through a Chinese phone.

China's military is only ascending in the sense the Russian military was ascending, look at them now, ground to a halt by a military that wasn't even thought to rate on the world stage -  China will not fare well in any meaningful battle, they may well have a lot of product, but none of their product is well made. Recall, their 'latest and greatest' naval assets have approximations of copies of 30 year old US technology and coupled to genuine Soviet equipment, they are literally decades behind even the Russians.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Technology lovers already love Russia, I managed to buy 100 unused, in original box Nixie tubes out of Russia, genuine 1973 date coded product two years ago - if you have cause to know what they are, you'll understand the interest.
Aaron
I know what Nixie tubes are, Aaron - I even had a Nixie clock once.
China's military is only ascending in the sense the Russian military was ascending, look at them now, ground to a halt by a military that wasn't even thought to rate on the world stage - China will not fare well in any meaningful battle, they may well have a lot of product, but none of their product is well made. Recall, their 'latest and greatest' naval assets have approximations of copies of 30 year old US technology and coupled to genuine Soviet equipment, they are literally decades behind even the Russians.
Aaron
I just don't buy any of that, mate -

Putin has gone as far as he needed to, that's why they're stopped where they are.

The Chinese can run parallel systems to ours and provide their client states with what they want - I think that's the way its headed. There probably won't be a military confrontation with them any time soon - I was wrong about Taiwan, they're just going to sit on that one for a while longer. At the moment they're focused on building their own client states and expanding military bases.

Chinese cars used to be a joke now they're something like 32% of global output. Just saying 'Chinese stuff is all rubbish' doesn't make it so - they have the global manufacturing base now, not the United States. The only thing the might derail their ascendancy is their obsession with COVID19...
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Rented a Chinese car in Oz last month (HS), it was rubbish.  I know people are buying them because they are cheap, good for them, I'm sure resale's will be low. The former Australian made Dubai Camry taxi's would frequently do 1,000,000 km in 3.5 y prior to retirement, however the Hyuandai and Nissan products couldn't come close, I doubt the Chinese come close to them. Yes the Chinese will improve.

The Chinese Aircraft carriers are based on the abandoned 1980's USSR hull they bought, which is small. Their slingshot technology was based on the former HMAS Melbourne which they removed prior to its scrapping. I'm sure its been modernised but still.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
Carnot
Not sure who is actually inside nor how many and I why Russian army just doesn't go after them, but after talking to my Russian freind who works for a company selling alot of Ukrainian materials. His view is

1) The Russians will be abushed at every turn. ie how many Hollywood movies have similar location battles? Ukrainians will no doubt loose eventually but the toll on Russians who don't know the plant will be high as Ukrainians have a gold mine of booby traps and equipment to make.

2) Russians don't want the plant destroyed in the process, its a large prize and remaining in one piece is desirable for future income and jobs in the region.

How long will they last is interesting? How long did they have time to plan ahead to get supplys in there.

Likely that if they have a large supply of food, then eventually and assuming Russians control the region going forward and there is women and children involved then at somepoint there will be a negoiated and peaceful surrender through a 3rd party country.
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
Not sure who is actually inside nor how many and I why Russian army just doesn't go after them, but after talking to my Russian freind who works for a company selling alot of Ukrainian materials. His view is

1) The Russians will be abushed at every turn. ie how many Hollywood movies have similar location battles? Ukrainians will no doubt loose eventually but the toll on Russians who don't know the plant will be high as Ukrainians have a gold mine of booby traps and equipment to make.

2) Russians don't want the plant destroyed in the process, its a large prize and remaining in one piece is desirable for future income and jobs in the region.

How long will they last is interesting? How long did they have time to plan ahead to get supplys in there.

Likely that if they have a large supply of food, then eventually and assuming Russians control the region going forward and there is women and children involved then at somepoint there will be a negoiated and peaceful surrender through a 3rd party country.
RTT_Rules
Also, this is just Mariupol, if the Russians are serious, they will have to take Kiev as well, that is where the majority of the Ukraine forces are, this war could well go on for months and months yet.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Also, this is just Mariupol, if the Russians are serious, they will have to take Kiev as well, that is where the majority of the Ukraine forces are, this war could well go on for months and months yet.
lsrailfan
Russia won't go for Kiev again. They got their smeg kicked on the world stage of embarassement and which basically showed how outdated Russian military hardware is as their strategy and organisation. Russia would likely also struggle getting their troops to follow orders to do it again and the troops now know Ukrainian people are not repressed.

Kiev is also far better fortifided with Western hardware than at the start of this conflict.

Why it won't go on for months is 9th May is Victory day in Russia, my Russian friends tell me its critical to have this wrapped by then from a internal political position for Putin. Hence pull out of the North part of ukraine and focus on teh bottom corner and claim what they lost in 2014.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

It might be a long time before it gets to the point that Kyiv even gets encircled now that Russia seems to be focused on the Donbas region instead of pursuing a quick overthrow of Zelensky and Co. Note the ongoing armament supplies from the US into Ukraine:



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Incidentally, it's being reported by there have been 9000+ civilian deaths in just Mariupol alone.  War is hell.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
The 7 years of sanctions you like to talk about do not include the seriously punitive sanctions in place today. Russian banks being shut off from the west, all international brands and the tens of thousands of jobs they provided for Russians, clothing, cars, parts for aircraft, and other large machinery. Their inflation is through the roof, the Ruble is in serious trouble, your 'average Russian', who was never really that wealthy to start with, is going to need to get really creative at stretching their Rubles real soon, they're already needing to be careful, but it's only going to get worse.

Other sanctions are potentially even more crippling, but they'll take a little time to manifest.

Can you name a Russian competitor to Siemens or GE for turbines used in energy generation?

Do you know a Russian company like Roll Royce, GE and Pratt & Whitney that make parts for aircraft turbines?

Can you think of a company besides Boeing and Airbus subsidiaries that can produce certified composite components for aircraft structural components?

Would you want to be a Russian working hard to aspire to buy a really, really nice Lada or whatever piece of smeg the Chinese make in cars - or do you think you might like an Audi/BMW/Lexus/Toyota/Citroen/Peugeot/SAAB/VW/(insert nearly every other car make here)?

Suppose you like French/Australian/Chilean/American/Scottish/Irish/Czech/German wine/spirits/beer freshly squeezed, fermented, and distilled potato juice just isn't going to be quite the same. If you're a fan of rum, I can assure you it will taste better with Coke than 'Stalingrad Kola' - if that's even a thing.

The cancellation of access to western software is potentially huge - and no, piracy won't be a short or long term workaround.

Technology lovers already love Russia, I managed to buy 100 unused, in original box Nixie tubes out of Russia, genuine 1973 date coded product two years ago - if you have cause to know what they are, you'll understand the interest.

Historians of technology are going to love it that they'll be able to buy iPhone 13s perhaps not new in box, but used, by one very careful owner in 10 years time from Russia - because the alternative will be some Chinese made piece of junk phone which, again, believe what you like of Apple/Google, you just KNOW the government can certainly track you through a Chinese phone.

China's military is only ascending in the sense the Russian military was ascending, look at them now, ground to a halt by a military that wasn't even thought to rate on the world stage -  China will not fare well in any meaningful battle, they may well have a lot of product, but none of their product is well made. Recall, their 'latest and greatest' naval assets have approximations of copies of 30 year old US technology and coupled to genuine Soviet equipment, they are literally decades behind even the Russians.
Aaron
There's two things that I get consistently from your posts on this topic, Aaron.

One is that you're a strong believer in 'western exceptionalism'. I don't blame you, I used to be a strong believer in the whole Anglosphere's special place in the universe - I mean the USA and the UK have pretty much dominated the planet's commerce, trade and politics for probably two-and-a-half centuries.

But the sun is setting - we're being outpaced by a new player that we've basically created ourselves by giving them all the technology, all the capacity to trade, all the resources that they needed and now they're pretty much going to overtake the West together with the nations that they bring into their sphere.

The second thing I've noticed about your beliefs is that you think the ascendancy of our rival bloc is going to peter out because they don't have the key ingredients of our Western exceptionalism. That's something I think I also used to believe in until recently - China has a really strong, vertically-integrated political system that demands absolute obedience to their authoritarian, single-party state. I bet nobody in China knows much about those starving people desperately throwing themselves off balconies in Shanghai because they have such incredibly tight control over what people are allowed to see and talk about on the interwebs.

I don't know if we can beat all these authoritarian Orwellian states in the long run - we're too busy trying to decide what constitutes a woman or allowing men to compete against biological women in sport.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The 7 years of sanctions you like to talk about do not include the seriously punitive sanctions in place today. Russian banks being shut off from the west, all international brands and the tens of thousands of jobs they provided for Russians, clothing, cars, parts for aircraft, and other large machinery. Their inflation is through the roof, the Ruble is in serious trouble, your 'average Russian', who was never really that wealthy to start with, is going to need to get really creative at stretching their Rubles real soon, they're already needing to be careful, but it's only going to get worse.

Other sanctions are potentially even more crippling, but they'll take a little time to manifest.

Can you name a Russian competitor to Siemens or GE for turbines used in energy generation?

Do you know a Russian company like Roll Royce, GE and Pratt & Whitney that make parts for aircraft turbines?

Can you think of a company besides Boeing and Airbus subsidiaries that can produce certified composite components for aircraft structural components?

Would you want to be a Russian working hard to aspire to buy a really, really nice Lada or whatever piece of smeg the Chinese make in cars - or do you think you might like an Audi/BMW/Lexus/Toyota/Citroen/Peugeot/SAAB/VW/(insert nearly every other car make here)?

Suppose you like French/Australian/Chilean/American/Scottish/Irish/Czech/German wine/spirits/beer freshly squeezed, fermented, and distilled potato juice just isn't going to be quite the same. If you're a fan of rum, I can assure you it will taste better with Coke than 'Stalingrad Kola' - if that's even a thing.

The cancellation of access to western software is potentially huge - and no, piracy won't be a short or long term workaround.

Technology lovers already love Russia, I managed to buy 100 unused, in original box Nixie tubes out of Russia, genuine 1973 date coded product two years ago - if you have cause to know what they are, you'll understand the interest.

Historians of technology are going to love it that they'll be able to buy iPhone 13s perhaps not new in box, but used, by one very careful owner in 10 years time from Russia - because the alternative will be some Chinese made piece of junk phone which, again, believe what you like of Apple/Google, you just KNOW the government can certainly track you through a Chinese phone.

China's military is only ascending in the sense the Russian military was ascending, look at them now, ground to a halt by a military that wasn't even thought to rate on the world stage -  China will not fare well in any meaningful battle, they may well have a lot of product, but none of their product is well made. Recall, their 'latest and greatest' naval assets have approximations of copies of 30 year old US technology and coupled to genuine Soviet equipment, they are literally decades behind even the Russians.
There's two things that I get consistently from your posts on this topic, Aaron.

One is that you're a strong believer in 'western exceptionalism'. I don't blame you, I used to be a strong believer in the whole Anglosphere's special place in the universe - I mean the USA and the UK have pretty much dominated the planet's commerce, trade and politics for probably two-and-a-half centuries.

But the sun is setting - we're being outpaced by a new player that we've basically created ourselves by giving them all the technology, all the capacity to trade, all the resources that they needed and now they're pretty much going to overtake the West together with the nations that they bring into their sphere.

The second thing I've noticed about your beliefs is that you think the ascendancy of our rival bloc is going to peter out because they don't have the key ingredients of our Western exceptionalism. That's something I think I also used to believe in until recently - China has a really strong, vertically-integrated political system that demands absolute obedience to their authoritarian, single-party state. I bet nobody in China knows much about those starving people desperately throwing themselves off balconies in Shanghai because they have such incredibly tight control over what people are allowed to see and talk about on the interwebs.

I don't know if we can beat all these authoritarian Orwellian states in the long run - we're too busy trying to decide what constitutes a woman or allowing men to compete against biological women in sport.
don_dunstan
No Don, we are not even close to the same thing. I don’t tell you what I think, I tell what I can of what I KNOW. I know what I know because I am in possession of classified knowledge and data, I try to tell you what I can, but you need to know that I am not in a position to tell you everything I know.

Think what you like, but you will never in position to know.

The Chinese ‘cruisers’ with an attempt at a reverse engineer without possessing a functioning sample of a US system stuck to LITERALLY ‘new in box’ Soviet era equipment is unclassified, I can tell you that because it’s on the internet, what RTT says about Chinese aircraft carriers is also presumably public, but things go further than that, I just cannot talk about that stuff.

Consider this, I only know what I need to know, there are a lot more people out there that are in position to know a lot more, and the US military in general clearly know even more than even that. I think I mentioned before that the Russian and Chinese militaries are ‘all bling and no bang’ - take a look at how the west, Russia and China paint their fighter jets, just contemplate that. Have a look at how the Russians and Chinese paint the decks of their naval vessels, think about that.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
Not sure who is actually inside nor how many and I why Russian army just doesn't go after them, but after talking to my Russian freind who works for a company selling alot of Ukrainian materials. His view is

1) The Russians will be abushed at every turn. ie how many Hollywood movies have similar location battles? Ukrainians will no doubt loose eventually but the toll on Russians who don't know the plant will be high as Ukrainians have a gold mine of booby traps and equipment to make.

2) Russians don't want the plant destroyed in the process, its a large prize and remaining in one piece is desirable for future income and jobs in the region.

How long will they last is interesting? How long did they have time to plan ahead to get supplys in there.

Likely that if they have a large supply of food, then eventually and assuming Russians control the region going forward and there is women and children involved then at somepoint there will be a negoiated and peaceful surrender through a 3rd party country.
RTT_Rules
I’ll tell you why they’re not going after the plant.

Putin said it himself in a weird televised interview with his defence minister.

He literally said ‘in this situation’ and then realised his mistake and said ‘of course in every situation’ (a non subtle difference, and I think the first statement was an accurate statement of what he believes) anyway, ‘in every situation we must consider the safety of our troops’.

But what has changed to change his mind?

He’s starting to lose the information war, and high profile acts like the sinking of the Moskva are bringing that loss. A pro Putin TV broadcast in the last 48 hours called the situation in Ukraine a ‘war’, and it was broadcast as such.

My previous speculation of what ‘all’ meant in the context of ‘all’ personnel on the Moskva were evacuated was at least partially clarified when the father of a conscript who died in the Moskva attack (his only child) appeared on Russian TV condemning his son being aboard the vessel in this situation. He called out Putin, said it was a foolish war and that he was not fearful of reprisal for speaking out because he already had nothing else to live for.

As the Russian body count rises there are going to be a lot of mothers and fathers taking the same view. It’s a slow burn because families and friends do not necessarily expect continuous communication from those in action, but as time advances and no contact comes, shortly following are the questions to their whereabouts. They’ll be wanting answers, maybe not most, but at least some will go public, Putin cannot have that, but he also cannot stop them all.

I think it’s time for NATO nations (via neutral, non NATO protected action) to begin airlifting food and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, (and the Mariupol steel works), all of Putin’s threats to the west have been hollow so far, might as well call him on that one too.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I think it's a bit optimistic to think that anything will get delivered into the Mariupol steel plant.

Russia have been making big gains out East this week, even with Kyiv seemingly holding out for now.  And trade between China and Russia is going gangbusters.

Putin will shore up what he has for now, given the failures further North and West.

An interesting article here as well, fwiw:
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
Not sure who is actually inside nor how many and I why Russian army just doesn't go after them, but after talking to my Russian freind who works for a company selling alot of Ukrainian materials. His view is

1) The Russians will be abushed at every turn. ie how many Hollywood movies have similar location battles? Ukrainians will no doubt loose eventually but the toll on Russians who don't know the plant will be high as Ukrainians have a gold mine of booby traps and equipment to make.

2) Russians don't want the plant destroyed in the process, its a large prize and remaining in one piece is desirable for future income and jobs in the region.

How long will they last is interesting? How long did they have time to plan ahead to get supplys in there.

Likely that if they have a large supply of food, then eventually and assuming Russians control the region going forward and there is women and children involved then at somepoint there will be a negoiated and peaceful surrender through a 3rd party country.
I’ll tell you why they’re not going after the plant.

Putin said it himself in a weird televised interview with his defence minister.

He literally said ‘in this situation’ and then realised his mistake and said ‘of course in every situation’ (a non subtle difference, and I think the first statement was an accurate statement of what he believes) anyway, ‘in every situation we must consider the safety of our troops’.
Aaron
I was paraphrasing what a Russian friend of mine was said, but I have this morning found what they were talking about on YT. I don’t know enough Russian, that is, I know only a handful of phrases in Russian, and recognise the Slavic origin words, but assume from what my friend said and the captions in the video that both are close enough to correct.

My friend was right, it is a weird interview, not sure what the intended message was meant to be in this delivery.



https://youtu.be/j9ztGKzEXA8
  Sonofagunzel Minister for Railways

My guess as to his purpose?  The Russians can’t take the plant by force, so he’s trying to smoke them out by raising the prospect that they will eventually starve to death. This will operate on the psychology of the fighters holed up in the plant. He’s trying sow the seeds of a morale problem, infighting or even a mutiny.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
No Don, we are not even close to the same thing. I don’t tell you what I think, I tell what I can of what I KNOW. I know what I know because I am in possession of classified knowledge and data, I try to tell you what I can, but you need to know that I am not in a position to tell you everything I know.

Think what you like, but you will never in position to know.
Aaron
Umm - not sure if we're talking about the same thing here, Aaron. I'm not talking about your super secretive job that you have helping the West making weapons and what the quality of the comparable stuff from China is like. I'm talking about the fact that we've progressively moved all our industry and much of our R&D to a country that might turn hostile any moment and do something (even more) spiteful than they did in 2020/1 when they banned a lot of our exports simply for pushing for an enquiry as to the source of COVID19.

We don't have to have a 'hot war' with the ascendant Sino bloc nations, it wouldn't be necessary. How long could we survive in this country if we couldn't get access to Singapore (for example) when most of our petrol, jet-fuel and diesel comes from there?
The Chinese ‘cruisers’ with an attempt at a reverse engineer without possessing a functioning sample of a US system stuck to LITERALLY ‘new in box’ Soviet era equipment is unclassified, I can tell you that because it’s on the internet, what RTT says about Chinese aircraft carriers is also presumably public, but things go further than that, I just cannot talk about that stuff. Consider this, I only know what I need to know, there are a lot more people out there that are in position to know a lot more, and the US military in general clearly know even more than even that. I think I mentioned before that the Russian and Chinese militaries are ‘all bling and no bang’ - take a look at how the west, Russia and China paint their fighter jets, just contemplate that. Have a look at how the Russians and Chinese paint the decks of their naval vessels, think about that.
Aaron
Yeah, again, I don't think we're talking about the same thing.

What capacity do we have to keep going in Australia if there's a closure of international shipping lanes to and from our trading partners would be more my focus. The Chinese Communist Party is way too clever to go for a direct, hot war with a US proxy they've long wanted to punish. We've gifted the CCP a massive industrial base together with about a third of all our trade.

They're going to use THAT as a weapon against us in the future - not direct military action. I'm envisaging a situation in the future like the one with Iraq where it's us, the UK and the USA in some kind of 'coalition of the willing' (yet again) while the rest of the world watches on - they only have to punish us with coercion around trade and international shipping and I reckon we'd fold within a month.

We make nothing here: Our top ten exports are commodities (if you don't count universities selling residency as an export). We're really badly exposed to an disruption in international trade. That's where they're going to hit us.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The situation in Mariupol is quite extraordinary.  Who knows how many neo-Nazi Azov army personnel are holed up in the steel plant?  I wonder how long they'll last before they starve to death or surrender?

The city looks like Dresden or Stalingrad in WW2.
Not sure who is actually inside nor how many and I why Russian army just doesn't go after them, but after talking to my Russian freind who works for a company selling alot of Ukrainian materials. His view is

1) The Russians will be abushed at every turn. ie how many Hollywood movies have similar location battles? Ukrainians will no doubt loose eventually but the toll on Russians who don't know the plant will be high as Ukrainians have a gold mine of booby traps and equipment to make.

2) Russians don't want the plant destroyed in the process, its a large prize and remaining in one piece is desirable for future income and jobs in the region.

How long will they last is interesting? How long did they have time to plan ahead to get supplys in there.

Likely that if they have a large supply of food, then eventually and assuming Russians control the region going forward and there is women and children involved then at somepoint there will be a negoiated and peaceful surrender through a 3rd party country.
I’ll tell you why they’re not going after the plant.

Putin said it himself in a weird televised interview with his defence minister.

He literally said ‘in this situation’ and then realised his mistake and said ‘of course in every situation’ (a non subtle difference, and I think the first statement was an accurate statement of what he believes) anyway, ‘in every situation we must consider the safety of our troops’.

But what has changed to change his mind?

He’s starting to lose the information war, and high profile acts like the sinking of the Moskva are bringing that loss. A pro Putin TV broadcast in the last 48 hours called the situation in Ukraine a ‘war’, and it was broadcast as such.

My previous speculation of what ‘all’ meant in the context of ‘all’ personnel on the Moskva were evacuated was at least partially clarified when the father of a conscript who died in the Moskva attack (his only child) appeared on Russian TV condemning his son being aboard the vessel in this situation. He called out Putin, said it was a foolish war and that he was not fearful of reprisal for speaking out because he already had nothing else to live for.

As the Russian body count rises there are going to be a lot of mothers and fathers taking the same view. It’s a slow burn because families and friends do not necessarily expect continuous communication from those in action, but as time advances and no contact comes, shortly following are the questions to their whereabouts. They’ll be wanting answers, maybe not most, but at least some will go public, Putin cannot have that, but he also cannot stop them all.

I think it’s time for NATO nations (via neutral, non NATO protected action) to begin airlifting food and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, (and the Mariupol steel works), all of Putin’s threats to the west have been hollow so far, might as well call him on that one too.
Aaron
Thans Aaron, very interesting.

I've sent your comments regarding the father and info war to a friend in Moscow for his insight.
His reply, he heard it on opposition media, but not on mainstream, but not saying it wasn't either.

I agree, as the body count grows, so does the questions. And hence why western analsyts and those on the inside say why the Russians are abandoning their dead or burying in mass graves to avoid funerals and the questions that follow by families asking why so many dead in a war they are supposed to be winning against a minor country. Many of which have family and friends there and getting 2ndry information. This also includes Ukraine providing a phone number and website where Russians can search for their soldier family members.

Of also interest the high dead count by senior members of the Russian Military as they are forced to lead from the front lines to try and manage and supervise their incompetent and poorly trained and equiped mostly constripts.

Iroincally as I picked up my phone to share your commnets, he sent me this

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Moskva-Cruiser-Wreck.html
Might be worth a read.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
There’s likely something classified they want back from it. The conspiracists will say they’re wanting/needing to get the ‘nukes’ off it, but I doubt that is the case. I can’t see the Russians carrying nuclear arms on the Moskva as a matter of routine, even with this ‘special military action’.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
How about this?



https://youtu.be/tkZOTXt1Uhg
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Aaron, to expand on my geo-political thinking that underscores this war:

Interesting article by a retired military commander (Robert Spalding) on how China has pursued a strategy. He opens by taking about an obscure book published in China 1999 called Unrestricted Warfare - that book itself is a comprehensive manifesto on how the Chinese Communist Party should pursue its policy with the rest of the world into the 21st century and much of what was discussed in the (rather large) tome has come true. - via ZeroHedge;

I mentioned “Unrestricted Warfare” several times in my previous book, “Stealth War: How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept.” I noted that the book was well known to modern-day China scholars but that perhaps because of its strange complexity, Western strategists had failed to connect its strategic vision with the seemingly random actions of China’s misleadingly benign and smiling countenance. Although some of the text is pretty clear: “Using all means, including armed force or non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interest.”

As I wrote at the time, that strategy can justify meddling in all manner of another country’s affairs: silencing ideas or promoting political discord, stealing technology, dumping products to disrupt markets. I was intrigued with the idea of creating an “army” of academics who could be used to gather medical, technological, and engineering information. The list of incursions goes on – and has grown since then.

Consider just a small number of the things the Chinese Communists have done:
  • Seized on COVID as a weapon to be used to their benefit, not a humanitarian crisis to be solved.
  • Viewed the climate change issue as a bargaining chip to win them economic concessions from global elites in return for reforms that they never intend to make.
  • Sponsored corporate espionage on a scale beyond what the United States acknowledges.
  • Launched unrelenting cyberattacks against Western companies and governments.
  • Fueled America’s deadly fentanyl drug crisis by allowing illegal smuggling of banned substances.
  • Used slave labor to produce goods such as clothing for sale to Western shoppers.

Despite all of these actions by the CCP, since publication of “Stealth War,” I’ve encountered skepticism from some readers who simply can’t believe that China has been methodically undermining the rest of the world with a patient, long-term, multidisciplinary strategy. Some even dismissed “Stealth War” as the work of an alarmist.


I don't believe it's a conspiracy theory to talk about the strategy that the CCP have employed with us as being 'stealthy' - I think the Party sees the West as an existential problem for themselves because we possess a prosperity and ways of doing things that show there's another way that doesn't involve vertically integrated autocratic rule. Incidentially I'm not sure about the 'fentanyl' claim although I've heard it repeated many time before...

Anyway - my point is this is a very long game we're engaged in here and I don't think the 'hot' war side of it is where it's at, trade and intellectual property are the weapons - they don't need to go for a hot war when they can just use economic embargo or a currency war (or whatever new thing they come up with) to destabilise us. Ultimately economic colonisation is where its at - and the easy purchase of Labor pollies (in particular) has shown how cheaply we come.

An Aldi bag of cash? That'll probably get you a minister. See? Why should they bother attacking us with all those toys supplied by Raytheon, Lockheed et al when they can just buy us out instead - much cheaper!
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
China and India both warned by the US not to provide 'material support' to Russia - NDTV;

A senior U.S. diplomat again warned China of sanctions if it offers "material support" for Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, while also pledging to help India end its dependence on Russian weapons.

China wasn't helping the situation in Ukraine by doing things like amplifying Russian disinformation campaigns, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said at an event in Brussels on Thursday. She said she hoped Beijing will learn the "right lessons" from Russia's war, including that it can't separate the U.S. from its allies.

"They have seen what we have done in terms of sanctions, export controls, designations, vis-a-vis Russia, so it should give them some idea of the menu from which we could choose if indeed China were to provide material support," Sherman told a crowd at an event hosted by the group Friends of Europe, which is co-funded by the European Union.

Sherman also said the U.S. would work with India to help the country move away from its traditional reliance on Russian weapons, given the impact global sanctions are having on Russia's arms industry.

"They understand that their military, which was built on Russian weapons, probably doesn't have a future with Russian weapons anymore because our sanctions have pulled back the military-industrial complex of Russia -- and it's not coming back anytime soon," she said.

I think the United States is deluded if they think they can control India and China's relationship with Russia - Modi apparently told Biden that they weren't going to stop buying Russian weapons any time soon and Chinese companies have refused to terminate business relationships with Russia. In the meantime we've got to remember this is what the long game looks like - China, Russia and India (and much of Asia and Africa) working outside the officially approved trading regime of the West to benefit each other.

Also couldn't help but notice Senator Wong in Western Australia yesterday telling everyone that it was the LNP's fault that China had got agreement for a port on the Solomons - while conveniently forgetting that she was the one several years ago saying the ChAFTA didn't go far enough in letting in Chinese 'private' investment to Australia:

  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
There’s likely something classified they want back from it. The conspiracists will say they’re wanting/needing to get the ‘nukes’ off it, but I doubt that is the case. I can’t see the Russians carrying nuclear arms on the Moskva as a matter of routine, even with this ‘special military action’.
Aaron

Not sure they'd bother recovering anything, its deep enough and I though inside Russian waters.
  YM-Mundrabilla The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Perhaps the word 'potential' might be removed from the title of this thread.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Might be something happening in the Black Sea tonight AU time.

NATO flying at E3 in a perfect circle almost centred over Casimcea in Romania, right to the very edge of the Black Sea coast, with an additional NATO aircraft from Turkey flying out of Canakkale flying a string of linked, tight, intricate circles in a generally due east direction about 70NM north of Istanbul.


Spain are also making military flights out of Bucharest, with the Belgian airforce and Romanian airforce both taking a flights in/out of Constanta, Romania.

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