Aaaand, the Brits have three Typhoons up flying south east over the North Sea, more or less toward I guess Prague, with 2x F16s, once each from a Belgium and Austria on a similar course, but ahead, being already in the continent.

Multi national force tanker as has been a perpetual thing (either being multinational, NATO or USAF) of flying loops over eastern Poland - still doing so.

Might be something happening in the Black Sea tonight AU time.

NATO flying at E3 in a perfect circle almost centred over Casimcea in Romania, right to the very edge of the Black Sea coast, with an additional NATO aircraft from Turkey flying out of Canakkale flying a string of linked, tight, intricate circles in a generally due east direction about 70NM north of Istanbul.


Spain are also making military flights out of Bucharest, with the Belgian airforce and Romanian airforce both taking a flights in/out of Constanta, Romania.

If you go on ADSB exchange more often than not you can see planes that dont register on flightradar. There's been a Nato members plane in that area for large parts of the conflict, same with one flying over eastern Poland.

Also have seen P8 Posideons over the Black sea at points too

Might be something happening in the Black Sea tonight AU time.

NATO flying at E3 in a perfect circle almost centred over Casimcea in Romania, right to the very edge of the Black Sea coast, with an additional NATO aircraft from Turkey flying out of Canakkale flying a string of linked, tight, intricate circles in a generally due east direction about 70NM north of Istanbul.


Spain are also making military flights out of Bucharest, with the Belgian airforce and Romanian airforce both taking a flights in/out of Constanta, Romania.

Sounds like they are drawing a cock and balls.

Yeah, I wrote my own client that pulls data from all the different ADSB data sources and overlays them together. ADSB exchange is one of the services I use, because not all show all that is happening.

There’s still an awful lot that is hidden, I have seen a good number of military movements fly in full visibility across Europe, then they just disappear over Germany, Poland, Czechia etc.

Always nice to see the ‘Jake’ flights up and down the Polish border.

Of interest, with the US and Ukraine now simply reporting ‘having more MiG29 than before’ I asked the uncle in the Polish airforce if he had the F16 on base and was learning to fly yet, he said ‘you know I cannot tell such things, you will have to see what you can see when you are here’.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi calls for the end of all economic sanctions across the globe as these 'constrain the development of other nations'. He also used a rather long article in the People's Daily to condemn the creation of military blocs saying that economics will transcend these.

They're clearly telegraphing the fact that they're never going to sanction Russia.

The Ukraine Army have attacked a couple of fuel depots in Russia, one of them contains fuel supplies for the Russian Military, a good strategic move on Ukraine's part!

Mr Yi can take his wang and jam it up his own rectum, economic sanctions constrain development of other nations? I think war is constraining Ukraine more right now than sanctions are other nations.

China doesn’t need to sanction Russia for Russia to lose in Ukraine. The most crippling sanctions to the Russian war effort surround not gas and oil, but high quality silicon and multi purpose electronics which all come from either the EU or US with some manufacturing input from Taiwan. It doesn’t matter how much money Russia makes from gas, if they cannot buy the electronics to aim and fire weapons, to fly aircraft, to swing a radar around, mere income isn’t going to help them.

Yi doesn’t like the sanctions against Russia because they’re demonstrating perfectly that the decent nations of the world can cripple alleged ‘super powers’ without even firing a shot. China is quickly realising that moving against Taiwan will cripple their nation and destroy their paper tiger military too.

Mr Yi can take his wang and jam it up his own rectum, economic sanctions constrain development of other nations? I think war is constraining Ukraine more right now than sanctions are other nations.

China doesn’t need to sanction Russia for Russia to lose in Ukraine. The most crippling sanctions to the Russian war effort surround not gas and oil, but high quality silicon and multi purpose electronics which all come from either the EU or US with some manufacturing input from Taiwan. It doesn’t matter how much money Russia makes from gas, if they cannot buy the electronics to aim and fire weapons, to fly aircraft, to swing a radar around, mere income isn’t going to help them.

Yi doesn’t like the sanctions against Russia because they’re demonstrating perfectly that the decent nations of the world can cripple alleged ‘super powers’ without even firing a shot. China is quickly realising that moving against Taiwan will cripple their nation and destroy their paper tiger military too.

Russia really are proving to be a "paper army" aren't they, they can't even beat little ol Ukraine!!

We were talking about this at work, I think it was formerly accepted that Russia had the second best military in the world.

Today, depending on what you think of the number and role/status of the Chechens, Russia probably does not even have the second best military in Ukraine.

Well, well, well, it seems there are reports that Roman Bykovsky has been captured alive… That’s unfortunate for him. It must have been difficult for his captors to not undertake a ‘special military exercise’ to ‘permanently demilitarise’ him.

If you think you recognise the name, but are not sure of why, he’s the one with the wife that gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women - so long as he doesn’t tell her about it.

Should be a good person for The Hague to talk to on a spare day - if he survives captivity, there’s still a chance that the Russians might their act together and manage to bomb the place he is being held. That would be a shame!

Russia is halting natural gas deliveries to Poland on Wednesday (today) - ZeroHedge;

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement of solidarity with Poland as Russia is poised to suspend all natural gas supplies to the country over Warsaw's refusal to settle payments in rubles, as President Putin previously demanded of "unfriendly countries" taking anti-Kremlin action amid the Ukraine conflict.

"Gazprom's move to completely shut off gas supplies to Poland is yet another sign of Russia's politicization of existing agreements and will only accelerate European efforts to move away from Russian energy supplies," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement posted to social media.

This following on the heels of Polish Climate Minister Anna Moskwa, who oversees coordination of the country's energy needs and response to changing conditions, asserting that Poland is well prepared for such a scenario of Russia cutting off the taps...

...After the initial reports, which sent European gas princes exploding, Poland has confirmed that a suspension of gas is imminent if it doesn't agree to pay in rubles. Bloomberg is now reporting, "Poland’s main gas distributor PGNiG says it was informed by Gazprom that starting from Wednesday at CET0800 all deliveries of natural gas will be halted."

And further, "PGNiG says will seek damages over breach of contract." The news comes after a reported crisis meeting of Poland’s Climate Ministry. Now it appears some final decisions must be made amid the ultimatum from Moscow.

Well, well, well, it seems there are reports that Roman Bykovsky has been captured alive… That’s unfortunate for him. It must have been difficult for his captors to not undertake a ‘special military exercise’ to ‘permanently demilitarise’ him.

If you think you recognise the name, but are not sure of why, he’s the one with the wife that gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women - so long as he doesn’t tell her about it.

Should be a good person for The Hague to talk to on a spare day - if he survives captivity, there’s still a chance that the Russians might their act together and manage to bomb the place he is being held. That would be a shame!

Hague is a waste of money. Let him go on the streets of Krakiv or Kiev, I'm sure the local women will ensure that he and his wife is permanently reminded of their conversation.

ie
no penis
no fingers
no tonge

Russia is halting natural gas deliveries to Poland on Wednesday (today) - ZeroHedge;

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement of solidarity with Poland as Russia is poised to suspend all natural gas supplies to the country over Warsaw's refusal to settle payments in rubles, as President Putin previously demanded of "unfriendly countries" taking anti-Kremlin action amid the Ukraine conflict.

"Gazprom's move to completely shut off gas supplies to Poland is yet another sign of Russia's politicization of existing agreements and will only accelerate European efforts to move away from Russian energy supplies," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement posted to social media.

This following on the heels of Polish Climate Minister Anna Moskwa, who oversees coordination of the country's energy needs and response to changing conditions, asserting that Poland is well prepared for such a scenario of Russia cutting off the taps...

...After the initial reports, which sent European gas princes exploding, Poland has confirmed that a suspension of gas is imminent if it doesn't agree to pay in rubles. Bloomberg is now reporting, "Poland’s main gas distributor PGNiG says it was informed by Gazprom that starting from Wednesday at CET0800 all deliveries of natural gas will be halted."

And further, "PGNiG says will seek damages over breach of contract." The news comes after a reported crisis meeting of Poland’s Climate Ministry. Now it appears some final decisions must be made amid the ultimatum from Moscow.

Poland were fast in the process of switching off Russia anyway. So with their mitigation plan in place and summer almost here our Polish suppliers have told us the govt has said no reduction in gas supply.

Putin (if he survives) will come out of this with a large chunk of his pre war exports permanently lost. My employer is now rapidly finding replacements from our Russian suppliers and after been bitten now 3 times in 6 years will not be rushing to go down this path again. Oil and gas sales will likely take decade or more to recover, if ever.

We were talking about this at work, I think it was formerly accepted that Russia had the second best military in the world.

Today, depending on what you think of the number and role/status of the Chechens, Russia probably does not even have the second best military in Ukraine.

Yup, Putin has single handly shown the Russian Military to be completely inebt the 2nd time in what 10 years (Georgia being the last time).

If it wasn't for the nuc's, they wouldn't be considered a serious contender to fight a school fight.

Talking to Russian friend in Russia the other night.

Australia military budget is around 40-45% of Russia

- Russia costs are lower, so money goes further
- Australia doesn't incur the costs/burdon of conscription which adds little to strength of military and dilutes skills of leaders in conflict
- Australia doesn't incur the costs of pretending to maintain a Superpower sized airforce and navy
- Australia doesn't incur costs maintaining basically 3 seperate navies
- Australia cannot afford or justify the cost of a AC carrier, Russia pretends and carries the cost to keep a wreck in operation for show.
- Australia can pick and choose its defenese hardware, Russia cannot, its 100% inhouse although with increasing amout of imported parts
- Russian soliders once out of Russia and Eastern Europe are all too often out of their depth and cannot even read the latin alphabet.
- Russian military is required to use Russia's GPS system, limited in coverage and reliability. In Ukraine they are using paper maps and couldn't afford to destroy the internet or mobile network due to their reliance on Ukrainian telecommunications to get around. Who would have thought Ukrainians painting over their street signs wuld actually be highly effective.
- Russian army is heavily dependent on rail to move around. Its all good while the country you are invading is using the Russian track gauge, but ends at the buffers. ie the Russian army is ineffective away simply from a logistics point of view from Russia and parts of Eastern Europe and after ths conflict its unlikley Eastern Europe even qualifies anymore.

Russia is halting natural gas deliveries to Poland on Wednesday (today) - ZeroHedge;

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement of solidarity with Poland as Russia is poised to suspend all natural gas supplies to the country over Warsaw's refusal to settle payments in rubles, as President Putin previously demanded of "unfriendly countries" taking anti-Kremlin action amid the Ukraine conflict.

"Gazprom's move to completely shut off gas supplies to Poland is yet another sign of Russia's politicization of existing agreements and will only accelerate European efforts to move away from Russian energy supplies," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement posted to social media.

This following on the heels of Polish Climate Minister Anna Moskwa, who oversees coordination of the country's energy needs and response to changing conditions, asserting that Poland is well prepared for such a scenario of Russia cutting off the taps...

...After the initial reports, which sent European gas princes exploding, Poland has confirmed that a suspension of gas is imminent if it doesn't agree to pay in rubles. Bloomberg is now reporting, "Poland’s main gas distributor PGNiG says it was informed by Gazprom that starting from Wednesday at CET0800 all deliveries of natural gas will be halted."

And further, "PGNiG says will seek damages over breach of contract." The news comes after a reported crisis meeting of Poland’s Climate Ministry. Now it appears some final decisions must be made amid the ultimatum from Moscow.

Poland were fast in the process of switching off Russia anyway. So with their mitigation plan in place and summer almost here our Polish suppliers have told us the govt has said no reduction in gas supply.

Putin (if he survives) will come out of this with a large chunk of his pre war exports permanently lost. My employer is now rapidly finding replacements from our Russian suppliers and after been bitten now 3 times in 6 years will not be rushing to go down this path again. Oil and gas sales will likely take decade or more to recover, if ever.

Remember when Don was trying to tell me that Putin had shut off the gas to all of Europe, in the month in which flow hit a recent peak? How I mentioned that the pipeline in question in Germany was flowing easterly?

From page 13

Do you get all your news/info from Russian propaganda sites Don? Got a reputable source for the cutting of gas? Nothing from quality German, French, English, Italian, Polish news sources. It all sounds a bit like when the Chinese told you Zelenskyy had fled Ukraine and the action was O V A H.

Rude as you are, you can't be bothered spending thirty seconds looking for a link yourself.

Not happy with ZeroHedge? Try Reuters;

LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - Physical gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline at Germany's Mallnow point fell to zero on Tuesday afternoon, data from operator Gascade showed, while Russian gas deliveries to Europe on the other two key pipeline routes were broadly steady.

In fact, Reuters said it happened even earlier in the week although there are two are pipelines that haven't been affected - yet.

Yeah, March 29, two days before April 1, gas pipelines routinely reduce in flow rate or head to zero briefly, before in this case an east bound flow occurred - meanwhile the other pipelines did not - have a think about why that may be… Protip - it happens often and it has nothing to do with Russian bill payment currency.

I wonder if Don has worked out what that east bound flow was yet...

I note that Don's own source (he does love ZeroHedge) again tells us that Poland still refuses to pay in Rubles, so my 'protip' still stands. It wasn't really for currency, because Germany ain't spending Rubles, it's not because of hardware shipments, because Germany is shipping an awful lot from Ramstein, AND they're handing over 'tanks' (well, Gepards) now.

Don will work it out in the next 10 pages or so.

Russia shutting now minor customers who were in the process of changing anyway, so they just got in first but with realistically very little impact as these countries have had many months to prepare. Its a bit like the former spat between UAE and Qatar. UAE is a large importer of Qatar gas, but during their little $hit fight including evicting their respective diplomates, blocking the airpscae to the others airlines, banning all direct trade, the gas supply was never in question and nor was paying the bill. Turning the gas off would have driven the UAE to attack Qatar. There are things we say, but there are also the things we do.

Why hasn't Putin shut off Germany, reminds me of UAE and Qatar, there are things we do and things we don't, no matter how wako the Russian President, he's still no idiot, just powrer hungry.

Its worth noticing that Bulgaria suppling military aid to Ukraine really stepped up in the last week with Ukraine seeking assistance with a visit by Ukrainian diplomats.

Its worth noting that Bulgaria is not feed directly from Russia and would require Bulgaria to simply read their emails and agree to close the valve, which they have (or at least let the control system do its thing).

Remember when Don was trying to tell me that Putin had shut off the gas to all of Europe, in the month in which flow hit a recent peak? How I mentioned that the pipeline in question in Germany was flowing easterly?

From page 13

I wonder if Don has worked out what that east bound flow was yet...

I note that Don's own source (he does love ZeroHedge) again tells us that Poland still refuses to pay in Rubles, so my 'protip' still stands. It wasn't really for currency, because Germany ain't spending Rubles, it's not because of hardware shipments, because Germany is shipping an awful lot from Ramstein, AND they're handing over 'tanks' (well, Gepards) now.

Don will work it out in the next 10 pages or so.

You'll never go hungry dining out on the mistakes of others, hey Aaron... especially when you regurgitate them as often as you do matey.

So you're getting your escalation of this war, which is clearly what you've wanted from the start. Western nations sending in equipment that will help drag this thing out longer against Putin - financially helping the merchants of death who make this stuff in the west so that our clients can blow up civilians... and their share-holders too, let's not forget the financiers of the laser-guided bombs too. And we're doing out bit too with those troop carrier things we're giving to (what's left of) the Ukranian military - fighting the good fight against those evil Bolshies.

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Shh! He's a secret agent and the answer is classified.

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Shh! He's a secret agent and the answer is classified.

Yeah he invoked the "Secret Squirrel" thing only recently ... I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you kinda thing. Wow wee...

I can just imagine him at an arms convention showing off their wares - "Our laser guided bombs have ten times greater accuracy blowing up children's playgrounds than the nearest Chinese competitor".

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Shh! He's a secret agent and the answer is classified.

Yeah he invoked the "Secret Squirrel" thing only recently ... I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you kinda thing. Wow wee...

I can just imagine him at an arms convention showing off their wares - "Our laser guided bombs have ten times greater accuracy blowing up children's playgrounds than the nearest Chinese competitor".

And then the rival Chinese rep says (in his best impression of Russel Peters):

"You Russians and Iranians doun't need that expeinsive bomb.  When you bomb prayground, you doun't need accooracy.  You kill the babies, Mom and Dad become souldiers, no good!  Better scare the babies, then they run home to Mom and Dad and whole family flee.  Our missile less accoorate, but more eefective."

Not everything is about the highest and best technology when you don't care who you hit.

Yeah he invoked the "Secret Squirrel" thing only recently ... I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you kinda thing. Wow wee...

I can just imagine him at an arms convention showing off their wares - "Our laser guided bombs have ten times greater accuracy blowing up children's playgrounds than the nearest Chinese competitor".

And then the rival Chinese rep says (in his best impression of Russel Peters):

"You Russians and Iranians doun't need that expeinsive bomb.  When you bomb prayground, you doun't need accooracy.  You kill the babies, Mom and Dad become souldiers, no good!  Better scare the babies, then they run home to Mom and Dad and whole family flee.  Our missile less accoorate, but more eefective."

Not everything is about the highest and best technology when you don't care who you hit.

I kid you not: Raytheon sent out a tweet in September last year telling the public that their anti-aircraft missiles were by far the greenest out of all the available anti-aircraft missiles on the market.

So while you're blowing up you enemy make sure that you're helping the planet at the same time...?

Remember when Don was trying to tell me that Putin had shut off the gas to all of Europe, in the month in which flow hit a recent peak? How I mentioned that the pipeline in question in Germany was flowing easterly?

From page 13

I wonder if Don has worked out what that east bound flow was yet...

I note that Don's own source (he does love ZeroHedge) again tells us that Poland still refuses to pay in Rubles, so my 'protip' still stands. It wasn't really for currency, because Germany ain't spending Rubles, it's not because of hardware shipments, because Germany is shipping an awful lot from Ramstein, AND they're handing over 'tanks' (well, Gepards) now.

Don will work it out in the next 10 pages or so.

You'll never go hungry dining out on the mistakes of others, hey Aaron... especially when you regurgitate them as often as you do matey.

So you're getting your escalation of this war, which is clearly what you've wanted from the start. Western nations sending in equipment that will help drag this thing out longer against Putin - financially helping the merchants of death who make this stuff in the west so that our clients can blow up civilians... and their share-holders too, let's not forget the financiers of the laser-guided bombs too. And we're doing out bit too with those troop carrier things we're giving to (what's left of) the Ukranian military - fighting the good fight against those evil Bolshies.

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

This war is because of Putin, this ‘escalation’ if you think shutting off gas is an escalation is also because of Putin - if you like Putin so much you need to push that blame onto the Ukrainians (or the Polish or Bulgarians whom merely respect the terms of written contract) then you go right ahead.

I absolutely do not want an escalation of the war, and I presumed this was made abundantly clear by me, perhaps I should have written it in a click bait news article for you?

I want an immediate contrite withdrawal of ALL Russian forces from Ukraine, the only acceptable solution to the current situation, we simply do not reward bullies, by allowing them to illegally occupy lands that they have no claim to - irrespective of their claims.

You’ll have to excuse me while I attempt to overcome my amazement at some of your statements! Some of which I will continue to remind you of in the future…

financially helping the merchants of death who make this stuff in the west so that our clients can blow up civilians...

You disgusting man!

If by 'our clients' you mean the sovereign nation of Ukraine, then you truly disgust me, and hopefully by extension, every decent person here. Ukraine are not the ones undertaking to 'blow up civilians' - that sir, is the sole domain of your mate Putin, who can be observed daily launching munitions at apartment buildings, dropping bombs, missiles and anything else he can find on civilian targets including hospitals, schools, and theatres marked with the words 'children'.

That you can be so inflammatory and incorrect about an obvious issue just astounds me - report my post again as you always enjoy doing, but I will print right here I have never known of a person so stupid as you!

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Because your question was so astonishingly stupid, that I didn't presume you to be serious in asking it!

The only expansion I want to see in this war is the Ukrainian military expanding out to the very smallest fractal of a millimetre from the edge Ukraine's defined border, maintaining their ability terminate any force that tries to cross that line - as is their unquestioned right. Until they're able to hold that line, with hostile forces within it, then Ukraine are absolutely within the right to also attack across that line destroying the infrastructure that invading forces rely on. Yes, I know that you and Putin have a problem with that, but Russia does maintain the absolute ability to go home.

We cannot win it, simply, 'we' are not even in it to try winning it, but Ukraine can win, and for the most part, Russia has already lost. Sadly, Ukraine has already experienced too much loss too, but on balance they will exit this with a more assured future than Putin's Russia.

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Shh! He's a secret agent and the answer is classified.

No, I do work that involves classified knowledge, I am not a secret agent.

I asked you repeatedly a while back if you would be unhappy about this war dragging on with the West being dragged deeper and deeper into yet another proxy war we can't win and (quite notably) you wouldn't answer.

Is that because you want this war to expand?

Shh! He's a secret agent and the answer is classified.

Yeah he invoked the "Secret Squirrel" thing only recently ... I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you kinda thing. Wow wee...

I can just imagine him at an arms convention showing off their wares - "Our laser guided bombs have ten times greater accuracy blowing up children's playgrounds than the nearest Chinese competitor".

You would need to imagine me at an arms convention, because I wouldn't be at one... Never been to one, wouldn't be invited to one, wouldn't have meaningful input even if I was.

I don't work with laser guidance, bombs or missiles, kids in schools flicking rubber bands at each other are using more sophisticated weaponry than I have ever worked on.

I work in something else, we have one client, in the United States, the product has no market anywhere else in the world, it certainly would never be 'handed to' or even 'shared with' another country - it is not for sale, isn't allowed for sale, and if it were for sale, people would be going to prison.

I could likely say a little more than that, but I won't, you guys are probably on a 'watch list' even at that, yeah, that's a thing.

Don, why are you not happy with the Ukraine getting help, do you want to see Russia steamroll the joint??