Russia vs. Ukraine - Potential War?

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:36
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Just finished up talking to my friend in Russia.

I asked him, 'If the World (or at least a sizeable chunk of it) won't trade with Russia why is Putin so keen to take the entire Black Sea coast? Russia has secure land routes to China, and India, via Kazakhstan and China'

His response? 'Well, I think Putin needs to take Mykolaiv because without capturing the Ukraina, Ukraine outnumbers Russia one nil in Slava class ships currently afloat in the Black Sea.'

It never occurred to me before he mentioned it - that this is true!

When he is being more serious, he has some very choice descriptions of Putin, that frankly, I am surprised he is willing to say so openly whilst on the phone in Russia.

He said that the he does not know a single person who when in private won't say that they hate Putin, everyone he knows when out of the public sphere refers to what's happening in Ukraine as 'a war', none of them think that Russia should have invaded Ukraine, none of them think that Russia should have invaded Ukraine*, all of his family and friends are hoping that there is some sort of coup that takes out Putin and he's never seen so much support for Navalny, even he reckons he'd support Navalny now - importantly, he says it's becoming more public too.

Goods in Russia are getting super expensive, older and poorer people are seen to be buying way more pet food than they could possibly have pets for...

Milk is expensive maybe 50% more, eggs maybe 30% more, bread has really increased in price (nearly double he thinks), sweets and chocolate has doubled, most fruit and vegetables are super expensive probably at least doubled in price. Flour, rice, pasta about 50% more. Beef is more expensive, chicken is more expensive, he thinks maybe +20%, but most fish has more than doubled in price.

So some of those might not sound so bad, but it's only been two months and wages have of course not increased, and many, many thousands of people are out of jobs with all the international employers packing up and leaving - and Russia has essentially no unemployment payments.

Vehicles are INCREDIBLY expensive, he says that dealers are now at the point where they ask for a massive deposit, like nearly 100% payment of today's price, then when they get the vehicle in they tell you how much extra you need to pay in order to actually have the vehicle, that's been in some cases almost what you paid in deposit again, meaning that cars are almost doubling in value just in the time it takes to source them. He has heard of some imported vehicles selling today at ten times the value they would have been purchased for before the end of February.

He was telling me that two weeks ago someone working for the company he works for crashed one of the company vans, it was of course insured, but the insurance company has said they won't pay for the replacement van, only maybe 70% of what the company paid for it two years ago. 70% of the original payment is today in Russia only about 15% of the cost of the replacement - the company actually had to lay off the guy that crashed it, and at least one other person to have the money available to buy the new van.


* That is not a mistake, I actually typed it twice in the hope Don would read it once.
Aaron
My business college / friend in Moscow has no issue saying how it is about Putin either. I try to be tackful, use the words "Mr P", but he doesn't give a smeg. He told me last year the govt largely stopped caring about this anymore, as long as its not said publically as this promotes protests. He claims this is because they believe the leadership is untouchable.

We have about 8 Russians at work, one very senior. He flew out his father to collect cash to go home and also provide for his mother (they are seperated). His mother had a senior govt science role until retired on her US$280/mth pension. I was told many Russian's in Dubai are doing the same for family back home and now their are basically couriers carring cash into the country. All the Russians at work are from Siberia, I don't know what currencies they are taking. And Putin wonders why his army is losing to a third world country 20% of the size.

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
So let me get this straight, you are saying Putin can see the Ukraine collapsing under the current Govt, so the only way to "put it right" is to invade and get the whole country back, united as one as it were??

So was the response - invasion of Ukraine - out of proportion with what was going on? Yes. It's not the full story though. Is Putin aiming for reunification of the Ukraine with the Russian union, no probably not. The official excuse was the protection of Russian speaking people against ethnic cleansing - I'm not sure if Putin had a plan beyond that.

Don't forget that there were two broken peace agreements not honoured since 2014, an ongoing war involving Azov doing their own ethnic cleansing, civilians being killed and persecuted - all that stuff was real and contributory to the current war. Whether or not those ethnic Russian people had only 'just' been settled there 100 years ago under communism is beside the point, those people were every bit as entitled to be where they were as their Ukrainian-speaking neighbours and neither Azov nor the Ukrainian government had the right to ethnically cleanse them from their homes.

This is an extension of those ethnic problems just like the Balkans, the break-up of a communist country causes problems with ethnic rivalries coming to the fore. I'm not pretending to have the answer to this extremely complex problem, I'm just an observer the same as you.

So core to this situation is that we're helping a government fronted by Zelenesky who comprehensively failed to implement two previous peace agreements with regards to the festering sore that was eastern Ukraine's Russians and Russian sympathisers - and yet here we are rewarding them for their incompetence by giving them money and arms so they can keep fighting Putin off. I mean, is it really a good idea considering the government there doesn't actually appear to be in charge of the militias?

Understand that Zelenesky was elected to solve the problem and simply had no authority over the militias - and in fact they threatened to kill him if he persisted with a disarmament process. So you don't really have a functioning government to give support to - you have some kind of paramilitary autocratic government that probably is incapable of controlling the situation in the east anyway as past experience shows us.

Aaron and RTT_Rules want simple answers - don't listen to them. This is a really long-running and complex war that's been going on for decades.
don_dunstan
Don clearly operates in one time frame, today there is no past of future. Everything is happening now, whether it be talking about Ukraine or talking about power.

While the world talks of Ukraine today, Don talks about Ukraine of 2018 as if its today, but somehow despite is lack of sense of time, fails to comprehend that time before 2014 actually existed.

Don justifies the a small kid kicking a bully in the toe to justify not only that small kid from being punched to death, but rather the entire class of males being excuted, the females raped, not just the class room destroyed but indeed every school within 1000km being blown up whether or not kids are still inside.

Again Don's endless and unwaviering support for not just Putin, but mass murder, mass rape and mass destruction never seems to amaze us all. Don you are not an observer, you are an avid supporter.

The only simple answer we want from you Don, is why do you deny to not just us, but yourself, but you are really a red blooded supporter of Putin's big picture plan to reclaim all the former soviet states.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Israilfan, while we're having an adult conversation about this war situation - what can you tell me about this map from the Ukranian 2001 census that might possibly explain what's going on right now in Ukraine?


don_dunstan
Doesn't explain anything relating to anything that is going on in 2022 Don.

I could post a map of Sydney's ethnic mix, doesn't justify an invasion by foreign powers.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Sanctions... Cough...
Carnot
In the world of trade, longterm agreements do not stop just because some people are shooting each other, especially when it comes to essential services. The USA and the former Soviet Union and now Russia today have numerous trade agreements and other corporative agreements in place, despite haveing a few trlllion dollars of military hardware pointing at each other.

What is far more relevent than that chart you shared is, what are they doing to wean themselves off these supply agreements?
As most of this trade is purely the sale of oil and gas, then this takes times to bring on other supply chains. Poland was working on shuting down Russian gas within a few months. Others are following similar as new pipelines and import terminals are installed.
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Some people you just cannot reason with at all, Don, you are one of those people! who gives a rats as to what went on in 2014 or whatever it was, it DOES NOT justify Putin coming in to take back the Ukraine, we know what he wants, but he can't have it.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Don clearly operates in one time frame, today there is no past of future. Everything is happening now, whether it be talking about Ukraine or talking about power.

While the world talks of Ukraine today, Don talks about Ukraine of 2018 as if its today, but somehow despite is lack of sense of time, fails to comprehend that time before 2014 actually existed.

Don justifies the a small kid kicking a bully in the toe to justify not only that small kid from being punched to death, but rather the entire class of males being excuted, the females raped, not just the class room destroyed but indeed every school within 1000km being blown up whether or not kids are still inside.

Again Don's endless and unwaviering support for not just Putin, but mass murder, mass rape and mass destruction never seems to amaze us all. Don you are not an observer, you are an avid supporter.

The only simple answer we want from you Don, is why do you deny to not just us, but yourself, but you are really a red blooded supporter of Putin's big picture plan to reclaim all the former soviet states.
RTT_Rules
I asked you a few pages ago to provide direct evidence of my 'support for Putin' and you couldn't find any. Nothing.

So you're a liar.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Doesn't explain anything relating to anything that is going on in 2022 Don.

I could post a map of Sydney's ethnic mix, doesn't justify an invasion by foreign powers.
RTT_Rules
You said on the last page:
There is over 100 years of Russians forcing themselves on the people of Ukraine, starving them, shooting them, forced migration, Russification programs to breed out, force out, starve out Ukrainian people and their culture etc etc.
RTT_Rules

So clearly your solution is to get rid of the Russian speaking people from the east of Ukraine, identified on that map. But then you won't spell out exactly how you want to do that.

I presume concentration camps and forced deportations are in there somewhere.

But that's a 'good' ethnic cleansing, right? As opposed to the 'bad' ethnic cleansing that Putin seems to be engaged in where he stepped in to stop Azov killing and torturing Russian speaking people. That was a bad thing, right?

I'm so glad that we have people like you on this board to clearly spell out when clearing out people you don't like is right - and when it's wrong.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Some people you just cannot reason with at all, Don, you are one of those people! who gives a rats as to what went on in 2014 or whatever it was, it DOES NOT justify Putin coming in to take back the Ukraine, we know what he wants, but he can't have it.
lsrailfan
Ukraine is not a culturally homogeneous society, there's all sorts of people with different ethnic backgrounds who live there - is it fair that one group should be expunged because of the language they speak or their cultural background?
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Some people you just cannot reason with at all, Don, you are one of those people! who gives a rats as to what went on in 2014 or whatever it was, it DOES NOT justify Putin coming in to take back the Ukraine, we know what he wants, but he can't have it.
Ukraine is not a culturally homogeneous society, there's all sorts of people with different ethnic backgrounds who live there - is it fair that one group should be expunged because of the language they speak or their cultural background?
don_dunstan
Does not justify Putin wanting to claim back Ukraine.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Don clearly operates in one time frame, today there is no past of future. Everything is happening now, whether it be talking about Ukraine or talking about power.

While the world talks of Ukraine today, Don talks about Ukraine of 2018 as if its today, but somehow despite is lack of sense of time, fails to comprehend that time before 2014 actually existed.

Don justifies the a small kid kicking a bully in the toe to justify not only that small kid from being punched to death, but rather the entire class of males being excuted, the females raped, not just the class room destroyed but indeed every school within 1000km being blown up whether or not kids are still inside.

Again Don's endless and unwaviering support for not just Putin, but mass murder, mass rape and mass destruction never seems to amaze us all. Don you are not an observer, you are an avid supporter.

The only simple answer we want from you Don, is why do you deny to not just us, but yourself, but you are really a red blooded supporter of Putin's big picture plan to reclaim all the former soviet states.
I asked you a few pages ago to provide direct evidence of my 'support for Putin' and you couldn't find any. Nothing.

So you're a liar.
don_dunstan
Your ongoing waving support for this war Don.

Every bloody post its all indirect suppport. Don, the only reason, I mean the only reason this thread is more than two pages long is because of your repeated posts trying to justify the war. No one else here is arging on behalf of Putin.

Whether I'm a liar or not is irrevelent coming from someone who repeatitly posts the support of rape and pillage and murder by the Forces of the Russian Federation towards the people of Ukraine.

I've yet to see you once say this war is wrong and that Putin and Putin and his men are animals.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Some people you just cannot reason with at all, Don, you are one of those people! who gives a rats as to what went on in 2014 or whatever it was, it DOES NOT justify Putin coming in to take back the Ukraine, we know what he wants, but he can't have it.
Ukraine is not a culturally homogeneous society, there's all sorts of people with different ethnic backgrounds who live there - is it fair that one group should be expunged because of the language they speak or their cultural background?
don_dunstan
What does this have to do with anything Don, there is barely a country in the world today and especially in Europe that does not have a mix culture.

Again you are indirectly stating that Putin is right.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Doesn't explain anything relating to anything that is going on in 2022 Don.

I could post a map of Sydney's ethnic mix, doesn't justify an invasion by foreign powers.
You said on the last page:
There is over 100 years of Russians forcing themselves on the people of Ukraine, starving them, shooting them, forced migration, Russification programs to breed out, force out, starve out Ukrainian people and their culture etc etc.

So clearly your solution is to get rid of the Russian speaking people from the east of Ukraine, identified on that map. But then you won't spell out exactly how you want to do that.

I presume concentration camps and forced deportations are in there somewhere.

But that's a 'good' ethnic cleansing, right? As opposed to the 'bad' ethnic cleansing that Putin seems to be engaged in where he stepped in to stop Azov killing and torturing Russian speaking people. That was a bad thing, right?

I'm so glad that we have people like you on this board to clearly spell out when clearing out people you don't like is right - and when it's wrong.
don_dunstan
No Don, the statement is very clear. After 100 years of oppression by one culture onto another, true "peace" will always be a challenge and this war has just pushed in bac another three generations.

WTF do you think is happening right now Don? "concentration camps and forced deportations are in there somewhere." Over 100,000 Ukrainians have been forcefully deported from their homeland. Meanwhile you crap on about what? The retaliation of Ukrainians towards resisdent Russians who invaded the country in 2014 under the black ops label. Have you ever reported of the forced deportation of Ukrainains from the occupied area, no, but you don't care. You only care about justifing your support towards Putin.

You want ethnic cleansing, get on a plane and go to Muripul Don. Only the brain dead would be blind to what is happening now and why what happened before Don, oh thats right. There is no before in your mind, you talk about it in present tense.

Again Don you havn't been there, I have, you clearly have know SFA what you are talking about, just mouthing some BS you found behind your keyboard.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Your ongoing waving support for this war Don.
RTT_Rules
???
Every bloody post its all indirect suppport. Don, the only reason, I mean the only reason this thread is more than two pages long is because of your repeated posts trying to justify the war.
RTT_Rules
Yet you can't find a shred of evidence for that when pressed.
No one else here is arging on behalf of Putin.
RTT_Rules
I'm not arguing on behalf of Putin, I'm arguing on behalf of what the actual truth of the situation is.
Whether I'm a liar or not is irrevelent coming from someone who repeatitly posts the support of rape and pillage and murder by the Forces of the Russian Federation towards the people of Ukraine.
RTT_Rules
No, your being a liar is entirely relevant. You make up stuff about me, can't find the facts to substantiate that lie and then try telling me somehow its my fault you were forced to make up slanderous lies about me because somehow I support the rape and pillage of the Ukrainian people (which you AGAIN can't substantiate).

It's really quite crazy behaviour, you know that don't you.
I've yet to see you once say this war is wrong and that Putin and Putin and his men are animals.
RTT_Rules
I've yet to hear you condemn the forced taking of passports from indentured labourers and servants in Dubai. Is that because you benefit directly from the sub-standard wages and conditions of those people?
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
No Don, the statement is very clear. After 100 years of oppression by one culture onto another, true "peace" will always be a challenge and this war has just pushed in bac another three generations.

WTF do you think is happening right now Don? "concentration camps and forced deportations are in there somewhere." Over 100,000 Ukrainians have been forcefully deported from their homeland.
RTT_Rules
Here's a project for you (seeing as Aaron wasn't interested) - tell me what happened in 2014/15 after the Euromaiden 'revolution' in the east of Ukraine?

How many Russian speaking people were killed? How many Russian speaking Ukranian citizens were forced by Azov to leave their homes and and become refugees in Russia because of the ethnic cleansing conducted by Azov?

I'll give you a hint: The number of people forced to leave their homes was much, much more than 100,000.
Have you ever reported of the forced deportation of Ukrainains from the occupied area, no, but you don't care. You only care about justifing your support towards Putin.
RTT_Rules
Because nobody is talking about what actually led to this war. Nobody is talking about the persecution of ethnic Russian people, nobody is talking about the neo-Nazi battalions doing the ethnic cleansing - not one mention of it here, and not one mention (by and large) in the mainstream media.

This is not as simple as "Putin is bad". Ukraine's hopelessly corrupt, out-of-control government - incapable of controlling their own military - was the core reason why Putin invaded.
Again Don you havn't been there, I have, you clearly have know SFA what you are talking about, just mouthing some BS you found behind your keyboard.
RTT_Rules
You don't live here yet you're quite happy to tell us how we should be living our lives here. Or is that different...
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I'll give you a hint: The number of people forced to leave their homes was much, much more than 100,000.
don_dunstan
You do not have a source for that.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
I'll give you a hint: The number of people forced to leave their homes was much, much more than 100,000.
You do not have a source for that.
Aaron
I DO have a source for it but I want you to find it - because it's not easy to find.

700,000+ refugees ethnically cleansed from eastern Ukraine.
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
No Don, the statement is very clear. After 100 years of oppression by one culture onto another, true "peace" will always be a challenge and this war has just pushed in bac another three generations.

WTF do you think is happening right now Don? "concentration camps and forced deportations are in there somewhere." Over 100,000 Ukrainians have been forcefully deported from their homeland.
Here's a project for you (seeing as Aaron wasn't interested) - tell me what happened in 2014/15 after the Euromaiden 'revolution' in the east of Ukraine?

How many Russian speaking people were killed? How many Russian speaking Ukranian citizens were forced by Azov to leave their homes and and become refugees in Russia because of the ethnic cleansing conducted by Azov?

I'll give you a hint: The number of people forced to leave their homes was much, much more than 100,000.
Have you ever reported of the forced deportation of Ukrainains from the occupied area, no, but you don't care. You only care about justifing your support towards Putin.
Because nobody is talking about what actually led to this war. Nobody is talking about the persecution of ethnic Russian people, nobody is talking about the neo-Nazi battalions doing the ethnic cleansing - not one mention of it here, and not one mention (by and large) in the mainstream media.

This is not as simple as "Putin is bad". Ukraine's hopelessly corrupt, out-of-control government - incapable of controlling their own military - was the core reason why Putin invaded.
Again Don you havn't been there, I have, you clearly have know SFA what you are talking about, just mouthing some BS you found behind your keyboard.
You don't live here yet you're quite happy to tell us how we should be living our lives here. Or is that different...
don_dunstan
Again, just because Ukraine may be a corrupt Government incapable of controlling their Military, does NOT give Putin the right to invade, heck, there would be other countries which are just as corrupt, just as unable to control their own military, so why aren't they being invaded???
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Again, just because Ukraine may be a corrupt Government incapable of controlling their Military, does NOT give Putin the right to invade, heck, there would be other countries which are just as corrupt, just as unable to control their own military, so why aren't they being invaded???
lsrailfan
Because their uncontrolled militias killed 8,000 Russian-speaking civilians and 'ethnically cleansed' 700,000+ people from their homes across Eastern Ukraine. Neo-Nazi, racial purists did this while the Ukrainian 'government' sat on its hands.

And we never heard a peep about it in the West when it was going on, did we.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Again, just because Ukraine may be a corrupt Government incapable of controlling their Military, does NOT give Putin the right to invade, heck, there would be other countries which are just as corrupt, just as unable to control their own military, so why aren't they being invaded???
Because their uncontrolled militias killed 8,000 Russian-speaking civilians and 'ethnically cleansed' 700,000+ people from their homes across Eastern Ukraine. Neo-Nazi, racial purists did this while the Ukrainian 'government' sat on its hands.

And we never heard a peep about it in the West when it was going on, did we.
don_dunstan
Never heard a peep because these numbers are BS.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Again, just because Ukraine may be a corrupt Government incapable of controlling their Military, does NOT give Putin the right to invade, heck, there would be other countries which are just as corrupt, just as unable to control their own military, so why aren't they being invaded???
lsrailfan
Don't hit Don with details, he's content with his own fantasies.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Never heard a peep because these numbers are BS.
RTT_Rules
No, very much real. It's out there, but not well publicised, not well discussed because it's not the story they want to tell.

An innocent nation with a hero President is a much more romantically compelling story.
Don't hit Don with details, he's content with his own fantasies.
RTT_Rules
See the really funny thing is here that I keep pointing you people in the direction of where the pathogenisis of this war lies but none of you are interested in it because it might prove me right.

You're tying yourself in knots to NOT look up stuff that I've been talking about. "Oh geez, what if Don Dunstan is actually right?"
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I'll give you a hint: The number of people forced to leave their homes was much, much more than 100,000.
You do not have a source for that.
I DO have a source for it but I want you to find it - because it's not easy to find.

700,000+ refugees ethnically cleansed from eastern Ukraine.
don_dunstan
Source, or it didn’t happen! Just like the Russian cut off of gas!

I don’t go tracking down your ‘sources’.

Okay I fell for click bait, so what.
“don_dunstan”
I’d never find your ‘source’ because I know better than to read click bait.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
An innocent nation with a hero President is a much more romantically compelling story.

A hero nation with an innocent President is a much more truthful story.
don_dunstan
Fixed it for you.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Source, or it didn’t happen! Just like the Russian cut off of gas!

I don’t go tracking down your ‘sources’.
Aaron
Have you ever considered the fact that this information is buried away proves me right? The fact that they don't want the public to know what the real narrative is behind this war shows that I'm on the money.

There was a pogrom going on against Russian speaking people and it accelerated after 2014. Twice Ukraine agreed to stop its pogrom and twice it failed.

Would your head implode if I was right? No, of course not. So go do your own reading.
I’d never find your ‘source’ because I know better than to read click bait.
Aaron
Nah, you just don't want to look in case I'm right.
Fixed it for you.
Aaron
Yeah because it's much, much easier to gobble up the pre-digested news-bites saying he's a hero than to look beyond the official narrative and realise that Zelenesky is a crook who headed up a dysfunctional, broken country that was conducting an ethnic cleansing.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Never heard a peep because these numbers are BS.
No, very much real. It's out there, but not well publicised, not well discussed because it's not the story they want to tell.

An innocent nation with a hero President is a much more romantically compelling story.
Don't hit Don with details, he's content with his own fantasies.
See the really funny thing is here that I keep pointing you people in the direction of where the pathogenisis of this war lies but none of you are interested in it because it might prove me right.

You're tying yourself in knots to NOT look up stuff that I've been talking about. "Oh geez, what if Don Dunstan is actually right?"
don_dunstan, Putin's #1 Fan and President of the Australian society for Australians for Putin said once again. 'Z'
Don, I think the general view of your posts here are Pro-Putin and has nothing Putin says in Russia has any credibility, neither do you on anything Russia or Ukraine. You also have a history in this thread of getting so much wrong including even the year Zelensky was elected to govt.

Its not publicised because its complete BS. Prior to the latest invasion most of the world would not have even known who the Ukrainian President wa, what any internal conflict may have been about or even where Ukraine was.

The only funny thing here how much of a sad joke your comments in this thread have become.
Don pots, "Where did I say I'm a Putin Supporter"
Don then goes to post anti Zelensky / pro Putin material.

I'm sure you are just itching to sign off your posts with a 'Z'

No one is interested in what you have to say about this war because your views are clearly biased, you conviently ignore any hard posts against your propaganda, you have never opposed the invasion and you have never opposed the autrocities against the Ukrainian people which is now includes 10,000's of civilians dead, Over 1m displaced, over 100,000 forced to move to Russia. Even on the Russian side there is now close to 20,000 Russian soliders dead and many times more injuried and yet you for reasons you only know, support this.

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