Renewable energy thread 2022

 
  Sonofagunzel Minister for Railways

Paris - even the accidents are stylish.

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  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Paris - even the accidents are stylish.
Sonofagunzel
Yeah it went off like a Roman candle didn't it -
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

So what was the cause? I doubt they put the battery packs on the roof. I could be wrong, French automotive stuff tends to be described as "quirky".
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
So what was the cause? I doubt they put the battery packs on the roof. I could be wrong, French automotive stuff tends to be described as "quirky".
Madjikthise
Seems a bit strange, but likely to lower the floor height and better for cooling.

Anyway, they will work out the issue and fix it.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Fireworks in France, and it wasn't 14th July.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I'm watching the impending Victorian Natural Gas Crisis with interest given that Bass Strait is close to running out of the stuff, and there are plans to convert LNG to NG via an offshore facility next to Geelong Grammar School in Corio Bay:
https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/energy-hub/gas-terminal-project/latest-news/2022/a-secure-gas-supply-for-victorians

Fun times.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I'm watching the impending Victorian Natural Gas Crisis with interest given that Bass Strait is close to running out of the stuff, and there are plans to convert LNG to NG via an offshore facility next to Geelong Grammar School in Corio Bay:
https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/energy-hub/gas-terminal-project/latest-news/2022/a-secure-gas-supply-for-victorians

Fun times.
Carnot
Maximising revenue from a soon to be stranded asset.
Much, much of this to come.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
I'm watching the impending Victorian Natural Gas Crisis with interest given that Bass Strait is close to running out of the stuff, and there are plans to convert LNG to NG via an offshore facility next to Geelong Grammar School in Corio Bay:
https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/energy-hub/gas-terminal-project/latest-news/2022/a-secure-gas-supply-for-victorians

Fun times.
Maximising revenue from a soon to be stranded asset.
Much, much of this to come.
michaelgm
It won't be a stranded asset because it'll be an import terminal to turn LNG back into natural gas as Carnot said. If we run out in the Bass Strait then it will be urgently needed.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
RTT_Rules
OR
just shut off the pipeline sending gas from the Bass straight to the EXPORT  terminal in Queensland. WTF?

Running out of domestic supply is the price we pay for allowing carpet baggers to make their profits at the expense of the nations benefit.

And yes  I do know it was Labor that allowed them to sign contracts for the sale of gas that they did not have.
Should have let those spivs go broke. Ain't the free market wonderfull?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
OR
just shut off the pipeline sending gas from the Bass straight to the EXPORT  terminal in Queensland. WTF?

Running out of domestic supply is the price we pay for allowing carpet baggers to make their profits at the expense of the nations benefit.

And yes  I do know it was Labor that allowed them to sign contracts for the sale of gas that they did not have.
Should have let those spivs go broke. Ain't the free market wonderfull?
justarider
Nah, Vic gas wasn't being exported back then or now.

It was being used for a while to plug a shortfall caused by export of Moomba and has long stopped with Qld gas now flowing mostly south. Priro to the LNP project it used to cycle North or South.

I do know people in the Australia Gas industry and the Vic Premier at the time came very close to giving a directive to closing the valve out of state.

What happened was wrong, it should never of happened, but it was unforeseen outcome of delays in the project and a fault of the Qld govt and failure by all the states and Feds to ensure a local reserve at cost plus 15%, which still doesn't exist but the gas companies were basically put up against the fence and told to sort it out or it will happen which they did, but damage was done and what compounded the problem was actually two unrelated events at the same time. One obviously the export issue the other was the loss of coal power stations. The issue with the reserve strategy is that its basically a controlled market which discourages investment, not what either side of politics wants.


WA has it because their local demand is SFA of the total production and export and its all happening in one state so easy to control so to speak.

Anyway, that was 5 years ago, the issue today and going forward is not related except that some of te CSM should be sent south to esnure the need to physically imported via ship is not required.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
OR
just shut off the pipeline sending gas from the Bass straight to the EXPORT  terminal in Queensland. WTF?
Nah, Vic gas wasn't being exported back then or now.

Edit for brevity only. Full text above.

Anyway, that was 5 years ago, the issue today and going forward is not related except that some of te CSM should be sent south to esnure the need to physically imported via ship is not required.
RTT_Rules
Todays AEMO indicates still a lot of Victorian gas leaking out those Queensland terminals

Feeding NSW and TAS is fair enough, but QLD come on!!!
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/gas/gas-bulletin-board-gbb/data-gbb/interactive-map-gbb

cheers
John
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
OR
just shut off the pipeline sending gas from the Bass straight to the EXPORT  terminal in Queensland. WTF?
Nah, Vic gas wasn't being exported back then or now.

Edit for brevity only. Full text above.

Anyway, that was 5 years ago, the issue today and going forward is not related except that some of te CSM should be sent south to esnure the need to physically imported via ship is not required.
Todays AEMO indicates still a lot of Victorian gas leaking out those Queensland terminals

Feeding NSW and TAS is fair enough, but QLD come on!!!
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/gas/gas-bulletin-board-gbb/data-gbb/interactive-map-gbb

cheers
John
justarider
Not quite

While line MSP (Sydney to Moomba) is flowing at 47 to Moomba
MAPS (Moomba to Adelaide) is flowing at 90 to Adelaide,

So the net flow is from Vic to Adelaide

Why, because PCA (Port Campbell to Adelaide) while not at 100%, would not have enough spare capacity to take the total flow from Vic. Also the line from Minvera is flowing to Melbourne.

If Minvera was to send more to SA, then maybe its to do with capacities and redundencies of other equipment. For example as the pipeline approaches 100%, the energy demand to push the gas rises faster than linear as the pressure drop rises.

Overall exported gas from Non Qld sources is 14 TJ from Moomba, about the same going to Tassie.


Thanks for the link, never looked at this before.


For longerterm position look at this report.

https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202021%20-%20Chapter%204%20-%20Gas%20markets%20in%20eastern%20Australia.pdf

Net flows North or South along the eastern states is seasonal dependent along with other production and maintainence issues.  Even prior to Gladstone, there was a net flow south in winter and north in summer.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Gas just doesn't run out overnight, rather it is in a state of decline and like every oil and gas well as they age they need investment to maintain flow or if not flow declines as the pressure drops. Bass Strait gas supply will be around for another 20 years or more.

There has been investment to boost flow prior to CV. As well as signing new major customer contracts.

However it is clear that in the near future supply will drop below demand and alternative needs to be found. Obviously there is plenty of gas in the northern half of the country so expansion of existing pipelines and/or import terminals will ensure the status quo for decades to come.
OR
just shut off the pipeline sending gas from the Bass straight to the EXPORT  terminal in Queensland. WTF?
Nah, Vic gas wasn't being exported back then or now.

Edit for brevity only. Full text above.

Anyway, that was 5 years ago, the issue today and going forward is not related except that some of te CSM should be sent south to esnure the need to physically imported via ship is not required.
Todays AEMO indicates still a lot of Victorian gas leaking out those Queensland terminals

Feeding NSW and TAS is fair enough, but QLD come on!!!
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/gas/gas-bulletin-board-gbb/data-gbb/interactive-map-gbb

cheers
John
Not quite

While line MSP (Sydney to Moomba) is flowing at 47 to Moomba
MAPS (Moomba to Adelaide) is flowing at 90 to Adelaide,

So the net flow is from Vic to Adelaide

Why, because PCA (Port Campbell to Adelaide) while not at 100%, would not have enough spare capacity to take the total flow from Vic. Also the line from Minvera is flowing to Melbourne.

If Minvera was to send more to SA, then maybe its to do with capacities and redundencies of other equipment. For example as the pipeline approaches 100%, the energy demand to push the gas rises faster than linear as the pressure drop rises.

Overall exported gas from Non Qld sources is 14 TJ from Moomba, about the same going to Tassie.


Thanks for the link, never looked at this before.


For longerterm position look at this report.

https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202021%20-%20Chapter%204%20-%20Gas%20markets%20in%20eastern%20Australia.pdf

Net flows North or South along the eastern states is seasonal dependent along with other production and maintainence issues.  Even prior to Gladstone, there was a net flow south in winter and north in summer.
Facinating, but yet you still seem to miss the point.
Once PCA gas arrives at Adelaide, where the heck is it used? It sure ain't in Adelaide.
All  pipes keep leading NORTH, and eventually the surplus fall out the pipe into ships.

To make it simple, Vic had a surplus of 702 which eventually reappears as a deficit ( ie EXPORT) in QLD of 206.
Adelaide, Tas, Brisbane use bugger all.

Todays numbers same pattern. The surplus from VIC is greater than the deficits of SA + TAS + NSW. The rest is QLD export.


Ps today is a cold, high consumption day in Melbourne.

cheers
John
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Facinating, but yet you still seem to miss the point.
Once PCA gas arrives at Adelaide, where the heck is it used? It sure ain't in Adelaide.
All  pipes keep leading NORTH, and eventually the surplus fall out the pipe into ships.

To make it simple, Vic had a surplus of 702 which eventually reappears as a deficit ( ie EXPORT) in QLD of 206.
Adelaide, Tas, Brisbane use bugger all.

Todays numbers same pattern. The surplus from VIC is greater than the deficits of SA + TAS + NSW. The rest is QLD export.


Ps today is a cold, high consumption day in Melbourne.

cheers
John
justarider
No points were missed in these replys.

I'm not sure I can make this any simpler, but this is using your reference and just counting the flows in the gas pipelines for which there only a few.

- The link you shared shows gas headed to SA from two pipelines from Vic.

- There is a total of 218 TJ leaving (NSW, Vic and Tas.)

- Adelaide (SE corner SA) is importing 263 TJ from Vic and Moomba junction, leaving 51 TJ coming from Moomba gas fields, rest from Vic.

- Therefore all the gas leaving (Vic / NSW / TAS) is being consumed by SA + its own Moomba field.

- At this time there is no net gas headed into Qld from Vic

- At this time, Moomba is selling gas into Qld, but there is no surplus from Qld consumers to say Moomba gas is being exported beyond Qld demand.

- In the last 24h, ~ 40% or 16 GWh of SA's electricy was generated by gas. Not sure on TJ to GW conversion, nor am I interested in doing so and SA power generation gas demand is complicated as 5 very different technologies in use. Would need to look up the conversion rates for each generating unit.

- If its cold weather in Vic/SA, then gas flows are generally south bound as previoualy show in the link I sent to you which has Qtrly nominal flows for last 7 years. However this is an overall rule, not a instanous one as things change.

Note: I have no idea what the geographic borders are for the gas markets as defined by state, in the electricty market it is NOT always the state political borders. For example is Portland smelter counted in the PCA flow to SA or not?
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Facinating, but yet you still seem to miss the point.
Once PCA gas arrives at Adelaide, where the heck is it used? It sure ain't in Adelaide.
All  pipes keep leading NORTH, and eventually the surplus fall out the pipe into ships.

To make it simple, Vic had a surplus of 702 which eventually reappears as a deficit ( ie EXPORT) in QLD of 206.
Adelaide, Tas, Brisbane use bugger all.

Todays numbers same pattern. The surplus from VIC is greater than the deficits of SA + TAS + NSW. The rest is QLD export.


Ps today is a cold, high consumption day in Melbourne.

cheers
John
No points were missed in these replys.

I'm not sure I can make this any simpler, but this is using your reference and just counting the flows in the gas pipelines for which there only a few.

- The link you shared shows gas headed to SA from two pipelines from Vic.

- There is a total of 218 TJ leaving (NSW, Vic and Tas.)

- Adelaide (SE corner SA) is importing 263 TJ from Vic and Moomba junction, leaving 51 TJ coming from Moomba gas fields, rest from Vic.

- Therefore all the gas leaving (Vic / NSW / TAS) is being consumed by SA + its own Moomba field.

- At this time there is no net gas headed into Qld from Vic

- At this time, Moomba is selling gas into Qld, but there is no surplus from Qld consumers to say Moomba gas is being exported beyond Qld demand.

- In the last 24h, ~ 40% or 16 GWh of SA's electricy was generated by gas. Not sure on TJ to GW conversion, nor am I interested in doing so and SA power generation gas demand is complicated as 5 very different technologies in use. Would need to look up the conversion rates for each generating unit.

- If its cold weather in Vic/SA, then gas flows are generally south bound as previoualy show in the link I sent to you which has Qtrly nominal flows for last 7 years. However this is an overall rule, not a instanous one as things change.

Note: I have no idea what the geographic borders are for the gas markets as defined by state, in the electricty market it is NOT always the state political borders. For example is Portland smelter counted in the PCA flow to SA or not?
RTT_Rules
You keep on about individual pipeflows, like each gas molecule has a name tag, instead of looking at the big picture.

ONE pipe from Vic to SA. Or are you suggesting the 2nd is Vic to NSW to Moomba and back to Adelaide, a ridiculous construct.

Sure consumed in SA, 171 came from Vic, and 92 came from Moomba.
That's because most Moomba was sent to Qld.
Thats the grid as built, efficient use and how the market operates.

Could equaliy envisage SA use the total of Moomba and the Vic surplus goes north via NSW.

Same effect, the surplus northward from Moomba originated because of the Vic surplus.
Plus of course the extra 47 from NSW to Moomba, which, with name tags attached, DID come from Vic

PS. new news, Portland using gas!! Thats new, but you're the smelter expert here.

PPS I did read your doc. The only reference I could find for south bound gas in Winter was Qld(via Moomba) to NSW. Not Vic.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
You keep on about individual pipeflows, like each gas molecule has a name tag, instead of looking at the big picture.

ONE pipe from Vic to SA. Or are you suggesting the 2nd is Vic to NSW to Moomba and back to Adelaide, a ridiculous construct.

Sure consumed in SA, 171 came from Vic, and 92 came from Moomba.
That's because most Moomba was sent to Qld.
Thats the grid as built, efficient use and how the market operates.

Could equaliy envisage SA use the total of Moomba and the Vic surplus goes north via NSW.

Same effect, the surplus northward from Moomba originated because of the Vic surplus.
Plus of course the extra 47 from NSW to Moomba, which, with name tags attached, DID come from Vic

PS. new news, Portland using gas!! Thats new, but you're the smelter expert here.

PPS I did read your doc. The only reference I could find for south bound gas in Winter was Qld(via Moomba) to NSW. Not Vic.
justarider
The pipe is the vessel that transports those indiviudal molecules which are counted in lots of TJ.

As there are only a small number of pipes that go from one region to another the accounting is fairly simple. If there is no gas heading that direction or insufficent, then thats it. I'm not sure how we can make this any simpler? How on earth is this a ridcoulous construct I have no idea, these are the pipes you say gas is headed to export in.

Lets go through this again focused on Moomba
Three pipes
(MAPS) Moomba to Adelaide         -> 92 TJ
(MSP) VIC/NSW - Moomba           -> 47 TJ
(SWQP - MOO) Mooba - Qld          -> 91 TJ

So its pretty simple,
nearly twice as much gas is headed to SA that is coming from NSW (Vic), the rest is from Moomba fields.

What you are suggesting is basically absurb, ie gas from Vic by-passes Moomba and goes to Qld and by-passes every other customer to end up at the further end of the network in a ship. Sorry it doesn't work that way because under this senario Vic will also be deemed by this logic to be exporting while Vic send was Joule out of the state and Qld is exporting.

The first issue with this logic the cost of logistics, the assumption is the cost of transport is constant.

If Vic didn't have a surplus, then there would still be gas going from Moomba into Qld as the custor base includes Mt Isa and Brisbane.


Anode Bake (mostly) and Cast House uses gas for heating, only reduction uses electricty for electrolysis.
For every tonne of aluminium, 0.43 t of anode (recycled butts + coke + pitch) is heated to 1100 - 1150 C to "bake" the anode.

Ok so you read the report, so you are noted
1) 2016 - 2017 a massive increase in demand from power generation (short term until RE caught up from 2018) combined with the LNG start - up phase


2)  With the launch of Queensland’s LNG projects in 2015, the projects began drawing substantial volumes of gas from Victoria and South Australia to cover shortfalls in their reserve portfolios. Conditions in the domestic electricity market also affect trade flows. Following the closure of coal fired generators in the southern states, increased demand for gas powered generation in those states drew gas south, especially during the Australian winter, when heating demand peaks. In recent years, gas flows turn southbound even before the onset of winter.

The threat of government intervention in the gas market (section 4.13) also impacted flows from late 2017. To avoid triggering intervention, Queensland’s LNG producers began offering more gas to the domestic market, which increased southbound trade flows. Exporters committed to the Australian Government to first offer any uncontracted gas to the domestic market on a competitive basis.

Following these events, flows settled into a cycle of gas flowing south in the Australian winter (to meet heating demand) and north in the Australian summer (the northern hemisphere winter) when Asia’s LNG demand peaks


3) More recently, the cycle appears to be shifting towards net southern flows – that is, less gas flowing north in summer and more flowing south in winter. Across most of 2020, net flows were southward. However, in the fourth quarter of 2020, net flows north were at the highest level in 3 years in response to increase LNG export demand. The day-ahead auction supported this turnaround as participants bought capacity on routes north (section 4.10.4). Notably, on the South West Queensland Pipeline 95% of all capacity purchased in the fourth quarter of 2020 was on routes north towards Wallumbilla Data on trade flows may understate the extent of north–south gas trading.

Some gas producers enter swap agreements to deliver gas to southern gas customers without physically shipping it along pipelines. An example is Shell’s agreement with Santos to swap at least 18 PJ of gas.84 Under the agreement, Shell draws on its CSG reserves to meet part of Santos’s LNG supply obligations in Queensland, while Santos diverts gas from the Cooper Basin tomeet demand in southern Australia.85 The swap allows the producers to increase supply to the domestic market, while enabling Shell to avoid transporting gas on the South West Queensland Pipeline, which is contracted to near full capacity. To improve transparency, from 2021 participants’ reporting requirements are expected to expand to encompass a range of bilateral arrangements, including physical swaps (section 4.14.1).


4) NSW produces little of its own gas, so it is highly trade dependent. Previously supplied by Victorian sources, as Queensland production fields ramped up and sent more gas south, NSW became reliant on Queensland gas to supplement declining Victorian gas production. As a result, gas volumes shipped along the Moomba to Sydney Pipeline and the South West Queensland Pipeline rose significantly.

To add to the above, the global gas market is obviously very tight for the last 3 months and as such it wouldn't be surprising to find every possible TJ that can be exported is being exported.


5) Road blocks for new gas supplies in the SE corner states

› In 2017 the Victorian Government banned onshore hydraulic fracking and exploration for and mining of CSG or any onshore petroleum until 30 June 2020.69 In March 2021 the government committed the ban on fracking and CSG exploration to the Victorian Constitution.70 Onshore conventional gas exploration will recommence from July 2021.

› In 2018 South Australia introduced a 10-year moratorium on fracking in the state’s south east. It introduced the moratorium by direction and announced its intention to legislate it. However, unconventional gas extraction is allowed in the Cooper and Eromanga basins. South Australia has no restrictions on onshore conventional gas.

› In 2015 the Tasmanian Government banned fracking for the purpose of extracting hydrocarbon resources (including shale gas and petroleum) until March 2020. This has since been extended to 2025.71

So these states have no interest in replacing existing gas supplies as they are depleted. So don't blame Qld for the issues of the future. Vic would have huge reserves of CSM.


Hope this helps clear things up.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Re: Comments the east coast should have a domestic reserve

I think on the surface this would seem the best outcome based on recent events there are some things to consider

2015, prior to LNG
East Coast prices were around ~A$ 4 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Then we had a few years of domestic disruption due to LNG and incease in Gas energy power

2020
East Coast ~A$ 5 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Obviously 2022 we are seeing record high oil, gas and coal prices due to Russia.

This is why I think there is such a large focus on import terminals which are now facing other opposition and concerns if they will get pay back.

Fun Fact, most of the GCC states also have gas import terminals despite being gas exporters to guaratee domestic supply.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
You keep on about individual pipeflows, like each gas molecule has a name tag, instead of looking at the big picture.

ONE pipe from Vic to SA. Or are you suggesting the 2nd is Vic to NSW to Moomba and back to Adelaide, a ridiculous construct.

Sure consumed in SA, 171 came from Vic, and 92 came from Moomba.
That's because most Moomba was sent to Qld.
Thats the grid as built, efficient use and how the market operates.

Could equaliy envisage SA use the total of Moomba and the Vic surplus goes north via NSW.

Same effect, the surplus northward from Moomba originated because of the Vic surplus.
Plus of course the extra 47 from NSW to Moomba, which, with name tags attached, DID come from Vic

PS. new news, Portland using gas!! Thats new, but you're the smelter expert here.

PPS I did read your doc. The only reference I could find for south bound gas in Winter was Qld(via Moomba) to NSW. Not Vic.
The pipe is the vessel that transports those indiviudal molecules which are counted in lots of TJ.

As there are only a small number of pipes that go from one region to another the accounting is fairly simple. If there is no gas heading that direction or insufficent, then thats it. I'm not sure how we can make this any simpler? How on earth is this a ridcoulous construct I have no idea, these are the pipes you say gas is headed to export in.

Lets go through this again focused on Moomba
Three pipes
(MAPS) Moomba to Adelaide         -> 92 TJ
(MSP) VIC/NSW - Moomba           -> 47 TJ
(SWQP - MOO) Mooba - Qld          -> 91 TJ

So its pretty simple,
nearly twice as much gas is headed to SA that is coming from NSW (Vic), the rest is from Moomba fields.

What you are suggesting is basically absurb, ie gas from Vic by-passes Moomba and goes to Qld and by-passes every other customer to end up at the further end of the network in a ship. Sorry it doesn't work that way because under this senario Vic will also be deemed by this logic to be exporting while Vic send was Joule out of the state and Qld is exporting.

The first issue with this logic the cost of logistics, the assumption is the cost of transport is constant.

If Vic didn't have a surplus, then there would still be gas going from Moomba into Qld as the custor base includes Mt Isa and Brisbane.


Anode Bake (mostly) and Cast House uses gas for heating, only reduction uses electricty for electrolysis.
For every tonne of aluminium, 0.43 t of anode (recycled butts + coke + pitch) is heated to 1100 - 1150 C to "bake" the anode.

Ok so you read the report, so you are noted
1) 2016 - 2017 a massive increase in demand from power generation (short term until RE caught up from 2018) combined with the LNG start - up phase


2)  With the launch of Queensland’s LNG projects in 2015, the projects began drawing substantial volumes of gas from Victoria and South Australia to cover shortfalls in their reserve portfolios. Conditions in the domestic electricity market also affect trade flows. Following the closure of coal fired generators in the southern states, increased demand for gas powered generation in those states drew gas south, especially during the Australian winter, when heating demand peaks. In recent years, gas flows turn southbound even before the onset of winter.

The threat of government intervention in the gas market (section 4.13) also impacted flows from late 2017. To avoid triggering intervention, Queensland’s LNG producers began offering more gas to the domestic market, which increased southbound trade flows. Exporters committed to the Australian Government to first offer any uncontracted gas to the domestic market on a competitive basis.

Following these events, flows settled into a cycle of gas flowing south in the Australian winter (to meet heating demand) and north in the Australian summer (the northern hemisphere winter) when Asia’s LNG demand peaks


3) More recently, the cycle appears to be shifting towards net southern flows – that is, less gas flowing north in summer and more flowing south in winter. Across most of 2020, net flows were southward. However, in the fourth quarter of 2020, net flows north were at the highest level in 3 years in response to increase LNG export demand. The day-ahead auction supported this turnaround as participants bought capacity on routes north (section 4.10.4). Notably, on the South West Queensland Pipeline 95% of all capacity purchased in the fourth quarter of 2020 was on routes north towards Wallumbilla Data on trade flows may understate the extent of north–south gas trading.

Some gas producers enter swap agreements to deliver gas to southern gas customers without physically shipping it along pipelines. An example is Shell’s agreement with Santos to swap at least 18 PJ of gas.84 Under the agreement, Shell draws on its CSG reserves to meet part of Santos’s LNG supply obligations in Queensland, while Santos diverts gas from the Cooper Basin tomeet demand in southern Australia.85 The swap allows the producers to increase supply to the domestic market, while enabling Shell to avoid transporting gas on the South West Queensland Pipeline, which is contracted to near full capacity. To improve transparency, from 2021 participants’ reporting requirements are expected to expand to encompass a range of bilateral arrangements, including physical swaps (section 4.14.1).


4) NSW produces little of its own gas, so it is highly trade dependent. Previously supplied by Victorian sources, as Queensland production fields ramped up and sent more gas south, NSW became reliant on Queensland gas to supplement declining Victorian gas production. As a result, gas volumes shipped along the Moomba to Sydney Pipeline and the South West Queensland Pipeline rose significantly.

To add to the above, the global gas market is obviously very tight for the last 3 months and as such it wouldn't be surprising to find every possible TJ that can be exported is being exported.


5) Road blocks for new gas supplies in the SE corner states

› In 2017 the Victorian Government banned onshore hydraulic fracking and exploration for and mining of CSG or any onshore petroleum until 30 June 2020.69 In March 2021 the government committed the ban on fracking and CSG exploration to the Victorian Constitution.70 Onshore conventional gas exploration will recommence from July 2021.

› In 2018 South Australia introduced a 10-year moratorium on fracking in the state’s south east. It introduced the moratorium by direction and announced its intention to legislate it. However, unconventional gas extraction is allowed in the Cooper and Eromanga basins. South Australia has no restrictions on onshore conventional gas.

› In 2015 the Tasmanian Government banned fracking for the purpose of extracting hydrocarbon resources (including shale gas and petroleum) until March 2020. This has since been extended to 2025.71

So these states have no interest in replacing existing gas supplies as they are depleted. So don't blame Qld for the issues of the future. Vic would have huge reserves of CSM.


Hope this helps clear things up.
RTT_Rules
Were going to continue to disagree, as this discussion like the gas pipe network is circular.

My opinion is that the network is a whole, and you believe each gas molecule has a name tag.

The Moomba to Sydney was laid to provide TO Sydney.  Vic to NSW was laid to suppliment that.
Now Moomba to Sydney is reversed, and even more gas is drawn from Vic.

SA is now using more, but they can no longer get enough from Moomba, because it's going north.

Southward flow in winter. Big deal, of course Qld should help with the shortfall.
They don't  want to, and only offer "uncontracted" gas - too much profit in export, let them buy elsewhere (LPG tankers from OS what a joke).
Anyways, that flow doesn't reach Vic (on your thesis) because the local supply caters for local demand adequately. NSW needs the top up.

Of course the gas industry is now laying the blame at Vic and SA, for not providing enough gas so that they can export more.

Sadly my initial cry to turn off the pipe was never serious. Such action would only hurt SA and NSW.
The exporting carpet baggers would laugh all the way to the bank with price hikes a supply deficiency would bring.

cheers
John
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Re: Comments the east coast should have a domestic reserve

I think on the surface this would seem the best outcome based on recent events there are some things to consider

2015, prior to LNG
East Coast prices were around ~A$ 4 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Then we had a few years of domestic disruption due to LNG and incease in Gas energy power

2020
East Coast ~A$ 5 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Obviously 2022 we are seeing record high oil, gas and coal prices due to Russia.

This is why I think there is such a large focus on import terminals which are now facing other opposition and concerns if they will get pay back.

Fun Fact, most of the GCC states also have gas import terminals despite being gas exporters to guaratee domestic supply.
RTT_Rules
Supringly, I agree.

Of course still begs the question why the local price is so high.

Perhaps because the local consumers have to bid and fight for the scraps left.

Fun ridiculousness. Its cheaper to import, than bid on the local market. Its even possible some of those ships come from Gladstone.
Fun ridicuolousness#2. With those imports into the network, there is now more supply available for the EXPORTERS to bid for.

Did I say "circular" already today.

PS use the currency convert please. USD 2.5 in 2015  X 1.33 = AUD 3.3  much closer to the domestic AUD 4

cheers
John
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Re: Comments the east coast should have a domestic reserve

I think on the surface this would seem the best outcome based on recent events there are some things to consider

2015, prior to LNG
East Coast prices were around ~A$ 4 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Then we had a few years of domestic disruption due to LNG and incease in Gas energy power

2020
East Coast ~A$ 5 / GJ

vs global prices of around ~US$ 2.5 / GJ

Obviously 2022 we are seeing record high oil, gas and coal prices due to Russia.

This is why I think there is such a large focus on import terminals which are now facing other opposition and concerns if they will get pay back.

Fun Fact, most of the GCC states also have gas import terminals despite being gas exporters to guaratee domestic supply.
Supringly, I agree.

Of course still begs the question why the local price is so high.

Perhaps because the local consumers have to bid and fight for the scraps left.

Fun ridiculousness. Its cheaper to import, than bid on the local market. Its even possible some of those ships come from Gladstone.
Fun ridicuolousness#2. With those imports into the network, there is now more supply available for the EXPORTERS to bid for.

Did I say "circular" already today.

PS use the currency convert please. USD 2.5 in 2015  X 1.33 = AUD 3.3  much closer to the domestic AUD 4

cheers
John
justarider

Local prices were from what I read traditionally high due to lack of competition and capacity cosntraints in peak periods and general in ability to move gas around. Most of the large long pipes are now bi-directional which means gas can move from supply to market regardless of source/destination. Some of this actually happened as an outcome Qld LNG projects and some through govt regulation or threats to do so.

Yeah well, wouldn't be the first place in the world where the ship heads out to sea and then does a U-turn to import at now global prices.

UAE does the same, plenty of gas, but there are three pipes running from Qatar because its cheaper. When we first started the new smelter in Abu Dhabi in 2011 (which now has a 3GW power station feeding the smelter and alumina refinery), our pipe ran over the Qatar pipeline, but we were not allowed to connect to it for strategic reasons. ie local industry in AD must run on local gas. Note, the same pipeline also was running the AD power station across the road, part of the reason AD built a nuclear power station 5 years later when the $hit fight with Qatar kicked off (gas never shut off, bill was paid).

However the older Dubai smelter (2.3 GW power station) was on Qatar gas, as that contract expired we were forced onto the much more expensive local gas from AD. This lasted a short period and now we are allowed open contract and the gas comes from where ever as the UAE moves to deregulate its markets and as quazi govt owned entities like us are IPO'ed off.
Note: The higher gas price also justified the replacement of a number of 32% efficency gas turbines with a single 62% plant. So we now use 1/4 less the amount of gas.

Back to Oz
The import terminals either built or proposed (yes Dubai and Kuwait built similar around 2010 un tendered as they needed them NOW) provide a source of competition and avoid gas pipeline fees.

Additionally the pipeline to Tasmania, which has never realised its potential and I doubt paid for itself as the gas used by the power station was reduced and being phased out, is now also used as a storage (battery) to sell gas into Vic in peaking times and overall from what I read over the last 5 -10 yr storage has been the growth industry in Australia gas logistics to buffer the market against peaking gas prices due to increased use of peaking gas power generation. ie the Li battery of the gas industry.


Yeah, my whoops on the prices, I did the conversion in my head based on todays rates. But still significantly cheaper.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Were going to continue to disagree, as this discussion like the gas pipe network is circular.

My opinion is that the network is a whole, and you believe each gas molecule has a name tag.

The Moomba to Sydney was laid to provide TO Sydney.  Vic to NSW was laid to suppliment that.
Now Moomba to Sydney is reversed, and even more gas is drawn from Vic.

SA is now using more, but they can no longer get enough from Moomba, because it's going north.

Southward flow in winter. Big deal, of course Qld should help with the shortfall.
They don't  want to, and only offer "uncontracted" gas - too much profit in export, let them buy elsewhere (LPG tankers from OS what a joke).
Anyways, that flow doesn't reach Vic (on your thesis) because the local supply caters for local demand adequately. NSW needs the top up.

Of course the gas industry is now laying the blame at Vic and SA, for not providing enough gas so that they can export more.

Sadly my initial cry to turn off the pipe was never serious. Such action would only hurt SA and NSW.
The exporting carpet baggers would laugh all the way to the bank with price hikes a supply deficiency would bring.

cheers
John
justarider
Yeah nah and no.

The network is very much not whole.

The pipeline is like a railway. if the trains headed to Moomba from Vic are half the size as headed to Adelaide from Moomba there it is quite clear no trains are headed from Vic via Moomba to Qld, regardless what Moomba produces. Note the pipeline from Moomba to Qld was increased for purposes of export as was the pipelines to Adelaide that export the liquids.

What the pipelines were originally laid for is completelt irrelevent to whats used today and in fact the piple Moomba - Sydney flows south more than it used to as Qld is supporting Victorian winters. Likewise in summer gas flows north (as mentioned in that report) to help balance production at Longford etc and provide gas for increased use of peaking gas power generation.

SA is fed from Moomba and Vic, there is no gas shortage in Adelaide. Rather the opposite problems existed in that for a while Pelican Point's owners didn't maintain an active gas contract for both turbines. This is now a requirement and also why storage capacity was increased.

The south flow in winter (actually its 3 out of 4 Qtrs per year) is far from a big deal when you say its all headed north, which it clearly isn't and increasingly more is headed south each year.

NSW is the biggest domestic customer due to almost zero local production, hence they buy from Qld, Vic and SA and now looking at import as a means to ensure supply at global market rates. Suprise NSW is in basically the same position regarding electricty, importing most from Qld, less from Vic and some from SA, but this will increase with the NSW - SA HV link and that electricty storage for NSW (and the east coast grid), its called SNowy 2.0.

The Vic Preimer made a more serious threat and it was taken very seriously. As indicated eariler the gas companies were called in and told to fix the problem or have it regulated. They fixed it, but of course it didn't happen in one day and clearly reading your posts people think it still happens 6 years later.

Yes Vic turning off the gas would have hurt NSW big time. SA is connected via both Moomba line which isn't big enough to supply 100% of demand and via Portland.

Anyway
- Yesterday there is almost no gas headed to Moomba from NSW, rather its reverse (you said it was cold) and both Vic and SA were using a fair bit of gas for power generation.
- The statement that Vic exports gas for export via Qld isn't quite true, rather Qld exports more into Vic than reverse.
- I have never heard or read anything from the gas industry that laid blame to Vic or SA for not being able to export more gas.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Were going to continue to disagree, as this discussion like the gas pipe network is circular.

My opinion is that the network is a whole, and you believe each gas molecule has a name tag.

The Moomba to Sydney was laid to provide TO Sydney.  Vic to NSW was laid to suppliment that.
Now Moomba to Sydney is reversed, and even more gas is drawn from Vic.

SA is now using more, but they can no longer get enough from Moomba, because it's going north.

Southward flow in winter. Big deal, of course Qld should help with the shortfall.
They don't  want to, and only offer "uncontracted" gas - too much profit in export, let them buy elsewhere (LPG tankers from OS what a joke).
Anyways, that flow doesn't reach Vic (on your thesis) because the local supply caters for local demand adequately. NSW needs the top up.

Of course the gas industry is now laying the blame at Vic and SA, for not providing enough gas so that they can export more.

Sadly my initial cry to turn off the pipe was never serious. Such action would only hurt SA and NSW.
The exporting carpet baggers would laugh all the way to the bank with price hikes a supply deficiency would bring.

cheers
John
Yeah nah and no.

The network is very much not whole.

The pipeline is like a railway. if the trains headed to Moomba from Vic are half the size as headed to Adelaide from Moomba there it is quite clear no trains are headed from Vic via Moomba to Qld, regardless what Moomba produces. Note the pipeline from Moomba to Qld was increased for purposes of export as was the pipelines to Adelaide that export the liquids.

What the pipelines were originally laid for is completelt irrelevent to whats used today and in fact the piple Moomba - Sydney flows south more than it used to as Qld is supporting Victorian winters. Likewise in summer gas flows north (as mentioned in that report) to help balance production at Longford etc and provide gas for increased use of peaking gas power generation.

SA is fed from Moomba and Vic, there is no gas shortage in Adelaide. Rather the opposite problems existed in that for a while Pelican Point's owners didn't maintain an active gas contract for both turbines. This is now a requirement and also why storage capacity was increased.

The south flow in winter (actually its 3 out of 4 Qtrs per year) is far from a big deal when you say its all headed north, which it clearly isn't and increasingly more is headed south each year.

NSW is the biggest domestic customer due to almost zero local production, hence they buy from Qld, Vic and SA and now looking at import as a means to ensure supply at global market rates. Suprise NSW is in basically the same position regarding electricty, importing most from Qld, less from Vic and some from SA, but this will increase with the NSW - SA HV link and that electricty storage for NSW (and the east coast grid), its called SNowy 2.0.

The Vic Preimer made a more serious threat and it was taken very seriously. As indicated eariler the gas companies were called in and told to fix the problem or have it regulated. They fixed it, but of course it didn't happen in one day and clearly reading your posts people think it still happens 6 years later.

Yes Vic turning off the gas would have hurt NSW big time. SA is connected via both Moomba line which isn't big enough to supply 100% of demand and via Portland.

Anyway
- Yesterday there is almost no gas headed to Moomba from NSW, rather its reverse (you said it was cold) and both Vic and SA were using a fair bit of gas for power generation.
- The statement that Vic exports gas for export via Qld isn't quite true, rather Qld exports more into Vic than reverse.
- I have never heard or read anything from the gas industry that laid blame to Vic or SA for not being able to export more gas.
RTT_Rules
Lets just agree to disagree. Going nowhere and nobody else cares

- I have never heard or read anything from the gas industry that laid blame to Vic or SA for not being able to export more gas.
Of course they haven't used such inflamatory words.
Just "we are running out because of Vic/SA" without mentioning the many multiples of that leaving our shores. Just joining the dots.

cheers
John
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Lets just agree to disagree. Going nowhere and nobody else cares

- I have never heard or read anything from the gas industry that laid blame to Vic or SA for not being able to export more gas.
Of course they haven't used such inflamatory words.
Just "we are running out because of Vic/SA" without mentioning the many multiples of that leaving our shores. Just joining the dots.

cheers
John
justarider
Cannot disagree on maths, it is what it is and Vic is not a net exporter of gas which was the statement.

Nah, that comment blaming Vic and SA for not being able to export more was never said or implied.

Did would loose industry because of high gas prices, potentially agree. But have to wonder how many would have gone anyway and high gas was just final nail in their coffins. But some of this includes wood chip, paper and wood product, which cannot be blamed on gas prices, likewise there is a reduction in petrolium and refining, again cannot blame on gas prices.

Regarding Energy Productivity since 2010, this went up by 20% over 10 years and demand has risen at half the rate of population growth.

What happened in 2016/2017/2018 should not have happened but it was a perfect storm of unrelated events that made the consequences much worse and actions have been put in place to ensure a stronger and more competitive gas market going forward.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
The Mike Cannon-Brookes Northern Australia to Singapore "Sun Cable" is in doubt as the Singapore government doesn't want to get on board - ABC;

Singaporean energy experts have poured cold water on plans backed by billionaires Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes to export solar power to the island nation, saying they are likely to be too expensive and impractical.

Australian company Sun Cable wants to develop the world's biggest green-energy export project by building a giant 20-gigawatt solar farm in the Northern Territory before sending the power to Singapore via a 4,200-kilometre-long subsea cable.

The farm, which would cover 12,000 hectares — equivalent to 12,000 rugby pitches — would be backed by the world's biggest battery network.

In total, the venture would be expected to cost more than $30 billion.

Mr Forrest and Mr Cannon-Brookes were leading investors in the recent $210 million capital raising offer, with both men vocal advocates for Australia's potential to be a world leader in green energy production.

But while Sun Cable has billed its Asia Power Link proposal as a trailblazer for renewable energy exports, Singaporean energy market observers have questioned whether the project will ever get up.


An environmental disaster that got cancelled even before it got off the ground - good.

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