I heard a bank, cannot remember the name has publicly called the Sydney market is now at its peak with no significant rises beyond the rest of the year and into 2018.
You can't ever really know - we have a finance & construction industry AND governments at all levels (state and federal) doing everything they possibly can to keep inflating the bubble beyond all reasonable estimates. I can imagine that without a change in settings that Sydney and Melbourne could end up with $2 million dollar median prices and that many people who already own property in those cities will be cheering the rises on... therein lies the problem.
I read a quote from Harry Triguboff the other day saying that he would tell the government to bring in more migrants if there was any sign of vacancy rates rising on the eastern seaboard... who is really running this show and for whose benefit?
UBS, Deloitte and others have been talking about the top of the market. In an ideal world, they should be right.
However, it seems that the overall situation will encourage continued inflation of the bubble until an uncomfortable correction ensues. The few measures taken to cool things down are probably too little, too late. TIghtening of lending comes after years of secret sub-prime loans with an untold number of fudged loan applications and thousands of households in various degrees of mortgage stress. Modest interest rate rises can be written off as tax deductions on investment properties, and the reduction in deductibles might save the ATO money (which is good) but won't stop the market. That the government and banks took those steps is a subtle acknowledgement that there is a problem, but they don't really want to do anything about it, probably because they can still squeeze more profit out of the market in the short term, while actively throwing ice on the market would be painful and kill that short term profit opportunity.
The exponential rate of house price inflation is alarming, such that $2M median house prices could be a reality in the near future. The March figure of about 19% is equivalent to a house price doubling time of about 4 years. That's a speculator's nirvana but with low wage growth in mind it's a nightmare for everyone else. Of course, things do seem to have slowed somewhat, but will probably continue at an unsustainable rate until you know what.