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It's the economy, stupid!

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      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    After the MMA factory closed, studies showed that ex factory workers typically fell into one of three roughly equal in size categories. So about one third moved to other full time work, about one third moved to part time work, and one third either retired or never worked again, despite being of working age.
    locojoe67
    South Australia now has the highest unemployment rate in Australia at nearly 7%, so much for the closure of the car industry being absorbed by bum-wiping and hospitality.

    I read the other day that Australia has something like 1.5 million under-employed people, the highest rate in the OECD - and that wages growth continues to fall below inflation. There's no way we can return to any kind of prosperity unless we can create demand in employment and at the moment government-funded job creation (NDIS etc) isn't enough.
    Posted: 30 Aug 2019 13:49

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      DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

    Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
    I read the other day that Joshy boy said that Australian companies are using up too much of their profits distributing large dividends and engaging in share buybacks rather than investing this money to expand their businesses, which would thereby theoretically add to the economic pie.

    I guess this is the coalition's veiled attempt to claw back franking credits!

    In reality, the reason that companies would rather distribute excess profits to the part owners, is that it is simply not worth it for them to over-expand their businesses instead....because the increased demand for their products simply isn't there....because people can't afford to pay for them....because they don't have that discretionary income....because wage increases are flat....because of the policies and non-policies of the current regime that have created that situation in the first place!

    If they wants companies to expand, all he has to do is ensure money gets put into the hands of people who will actually spend it, instead of to those who will only hoard it.

    (last paragraph edited by moderators)
    Posted: 30 Aug 2019 21:45

    Last edited by DirtyBallast on 01 Sep 2019 22:40; edited 2 times in total
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    ...

    If they wants companies to expand, all he has to do is ensure money gets put into the hands of people who will actually spend it, instead of to those who will only hoard it.
    DirtyBallast
    We're in late-stage neo-liberalism; there really isn't much ScoMo can do about it even if they wanted to. MP Tim Wilson's old employer The Institute of Public Affairs recently called for the minimum wage to be abolished so the government could create more employment - not sure what to think as it would reflect the reality in this country that many people work below $19 an hour. If the law isn't even being enforced then why the fuss if it's abolished altogether.

    The globalist Thatcherite experiment exemplified in this country is all about creating winners and losers and the longer term losers were always going to be the bottom half. That was the surprise that Hawke and Keating wanted us to find out later wasn't it - if we're truly to compete with Asia then our living standards have to fall to match theirs including their very low wages.
    Posted: 31 Aug 2019 13:09

    Last edited by don_dunstan on 01 Sep 2019 22:41; edited 1 time in total
      DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

    Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
    I was more alluding to the hypothetical $75 per week increase in Newstart, which would only cost the government $3b per year and will be totally put back into the economy by the people receiving it, vs. the total of $158b they will forgo in the form of eventual tax cuts that will filter through to those who are not needy at all.
    Posted: 31 Aug 2019 20:51

    Last edited by DirtyBallast on 31 Aug 2019 20:53; edited 1 time in total
      neillfarmer Chief Train Controller

    I think the main reason everybody is not spending money is that any spare cash is going into the mortgage and rent, not on consumer goods. Lowering interest rates will have no effect on anything. They are so low now that anybody who wanted to borrow for a project would have done it long ago. There is no way a business would invest in an expansion if it already has spare capacity.
    Posted: 31 Aug 2019 23:48
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    I was more alluding to the hypothetical $75 per week increase in Newstart, which would only cost the government $3b per year and will be totally put back into the economy by the people receiving it, vs. the total of $158b they will forgo in the form of eventual tax cuts that will filter through to those who are not needy at all.
    DirtyBallast
    Yeah well there's that too. I think punishing and alienating the unemployed is a good traditional Tory meme so they have to be seen to keep doing it despite the fact that the fastest growing cohort of unemployed are people over 50 and likely structurally unemployed.

    Cutting tax won't do a thing as you point out, Aussie households are swimming in debt and that's the core problem.
    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 13:31
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    What a shock to find out that an expensive government program with little oversight is being ripped off - via news.com.au:

    Former Labor Leader Bill Shorten has likened the leadership of the National Disability Insurance Scheme to a "runaway train" after reports that providers are wasting funds on lavish dinners and five-star hotels.

    Former head of National Disability Services Chris Tanti has told News Corp newspapers he was shocked at the spending extravagance.

    "I certainly was surprised at some of the hotels people would stay at and the restaurants that were attended ... the use of chauffeur-driven limousines was extraordinary by some," the Daily Telegraph reported Mr Tanti as saying on Saturday.

    Every time one of these expensive all-encompassing programs is set up it always - ALWAYS - ends up being rorted.
    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 13:46
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    Looks as though Adelaide is set to lose the submarine maintenance contract to Western Australia - which (after all) is where the subs will be permanently based. Via Yahoo/Seven;

    In the first study, PriceWaterhouseCoopers concluded relocation would lessen risk to the Attack class submarine and Hunter class frigate programs, and free up workers in South Australia for the ambitious build program.

    The study also found Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia would face constraints, while Henderson in WA had room to expand.

    The WA government also cited an Acil Allen study, which found full-cycle docking would significantly boost the state economy.

    It's estimated the WA contract would create more than 3000 jobs and pump $8 billion into the state's economy.

    Incredibly big numbers being shoved around there - does this mean that Adelaide will lose $8 billion and 3,000 jobs if the contract goes interstate? Looks like Australia is now following that time-honoured US tradition of shoving around defense jobs and money to reward and punish the states.
    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 19:04
      Carnot Minister for Railways

    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 13:18
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    Carnot
    Achieved by exporting everything not nailed down including forcing Australians to pay above tote for their own gas.

    Yet despite all this the Aussie dollar is down to $0.66 this morning, a level not seen in over ten years. Given the downwards pressure on the currency I'd be surprised if the RBA decides to cut this afternoon... pretty soon we'll be getting imported inflation from the slump in the dollar and they'll be wanting to raise rates again.
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 13:28
      michaelgm Chief Commissioner

    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    Carnot
    How good is Australia? That surplus is good news.
    When it goes pear shaped, it will be global challangers and other head winds.
    And possibly still blaming labor.
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 13:29
      Carnot Minister for Railways

    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    Achieved by exporting everything not nailed down including forcing Australians to pay above tote for their own gas.

    Yet despite all this the Aussie dollar is down to $0.66 this morning, a level not seen in over ten years. Given the downwards pressure on the currency I'd be surprised if the RBA decides to cut this afternoon... pretty soon we'll be getting imported inflation from the slump in the dollar and they'll be wanting to raise rates again.
    don_dunstan
    Importing Inflation, Importing Natural Gas......  We really are a flatulent bubble that's about to burst!
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 13:58
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    How good is Australia? That surplus is good news.
    When it goes pear shaped, it will be global challangers and other head winds.
    And possibly still blaming labor.
    michaelgm
    They're still blaming the Labor Party for various blights six years later, it's a real sign of how desperate they are.

    I was reading today that government spending has actually been increasing despite the fact that they're already spending record amounts of money to keep GDP afloat... they don't give a rat's about debt, clearly.
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 18:37
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    A weak Aussie $, Along with decent commodity prices = First current account surplus since June 1975!!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/historic-current-account-surplus-banana-republic/11473366

    "How good is Australia!" (ScoMo)

    That said, Iron Ore prices took a 30% hit last month....
    Achieved by exporting everything not nailed down including forcing Australians to pay above tote for their own gas.

    Yet despite all this the Aussie dollar is down to $0.66 this morning, a level not seen in over ten years. Given the downwards pressure on the currency I'd be surprised if the RBA decides to cut this afternoon... pretty soon we'll be getting imported inflation from the slump in the dollar and they'll be wanting to raise rates again.
    Importing Inflation, Importing Natural Gas......  We really are a flatulent bubble that's about to burst!
    Carnot
    Are we actually importing our own/others LNG? I did read something recently about the Chinese government selling our LNG futures to Japan (or maybe it was the other way around) -

    There have been several proposals to land our own gas back here, VIC and SA amongst the destinations for imported (or repatriated) LNG.
    Posted: 03 Sep 2019 20:05
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    Former Labor Senator Graham Richardson wrote an opinion piece in the Australian yesterday about how to fix the corruption within the NSW Labor Party;

    The only way to end all speculation and corruption with donations is full public funding of election campaigns. It is big bucks and bound to be unpopular so would no doubt require bipartisan support.

    What about having politicians who aren't corruptible by big business or foreign interests? Or is that just all too hard... in the meantime current Labor Senator Kristina Keneally came up with an even dumber idea which was to move the Labor Party out of their headquarters in Sussex Street Sydney because apparently the building itself is part of the problem.

    Bad feng shui leading to continued problems with corruption - hmm, that's a little bit off-with-the-fairies isn't it...
    Posted: 05 Sep 2019 11:34
      michaelgm Chief Commissioner

    Former Labor Senator Graham Richardson wrote an opinion piece in the Australian yesterday about how to fix the corruption within the NSW Labor Party;

    The only way to end all speculation and corruption with donations is full public funding of election campaigns. It is big bucks and bound to be unpopular so would no doubt require bipartisan support.

    What about having politicians who aren't corruptible by big business or foreign interests? Or is that just all too hard... in the meantime current Labor Senator Kristina Keneally came up with an even dumber idea which was to move the Labor Party out of their headquarters in Sussex Street Sydney because apparently the building itself is part of the problem.

    Bad feng shui leading to continued problems with corruption - hmm, that's a little bit off-with-the-fairies isn't it...
    don_dunstan
    Don, evidently it is all too hard.although a stint for some in the klink, might encourage others to pull their heads in.

    As for KK, bad juju, defiantly flying with fairies.
    Posted: 05 Sep 2019 11:45
      Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

    Location: Norda Fittazroy
    In any other field, donations like these political ones, would be called for what they are; attempted bribery.

    Does anyone seriously believe that people hand over big bucks and expect to get nothing back? Yeah, sure and I'm Princess Margaret (oops- she's taken; I'd better be The Queen because I'm older).
    Posted: 05 Sep 2019 16:34
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    In any other field, donations like these political ones, would be called for what they are; attempted bribery.

    Does anyone seriously believe that people hand over big bucks and expect to get nothing back? Yeah, sure and I'm Princess Margaret (oops- she's taken; I'd better be The Queen because I'm older).
    Valvegear
    Some of the things coming out of the NSW ICAC enquiry show how the shadow of Obied still looms large - only this time they were stuffing their coffers with as much Chinese influence-buying as they possibly could. Disgraceful, no wonder they got a thrashing by Gladys earlier this year - even though the Liberals in NSW are up to their necks in developer donations on the other side of NSW parliament.
    Posted: 05 Sep 2019 19:34
      Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

    Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
    In any other field, donations like these political ones, would be called for what they are; attempted bribery.

    Does anyone seriously believe that people hand over big bucks and expect to get nothing back? Yeah, sure and I'm Princess Margaret (oops- she's taken; I'd better be The Queen because I'm older).
    Valvegear
    Canberra isn't keen on anything like an ICAC or at least anything that has real investigative powers.

    Imagine the AFP walking out of a residence with bags of 'evidence' relating to political misdeeds!
    Posted: 06 Sep 2019 22:19
      Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

    Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
    The government can't rely on other country's bad luck indefinitely. Might be the first time this lot has actually had to manage the economy Razz

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/disaster-an-unreliable-help-for-australias-economy/11483628?section=business
    Posted: 06 Sep 2019 22:31
      Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

    Location: Norda Fittazroy
    he government can't rely on other country's bad luck indefinitely. Might be the first time this lot has actually had to manage the economy
    Groundrelay
    I doubt it. The Government seems to be expecting the Reserve Bank to do it.
    Posted: 07 Sep 2019 10:20

    Last edited by Valvegear on 07 Sep 2019 10:26; edited 1 time in total
      michaelgm Chief Commissioner

    he government can't rely on other country's bad luck indefinitely. Might be the first time this lot has actually had to manage the economy
    I doubt it. The Government seems to be expecting the Reserve Bank to do it.
    Valvegear
    And the RBA has few shots remaining in the locker.
    Posted: 07 Sep 2019 10:44
      don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Adelaide proud
    he government can't rely on other country's bad luck indefinitely. Might be the first time this lot has actually had to manage the economy
    I doubt it. The Government seems to be expecting the Reserve Bank to do it.
    And the RBA has few shots remaining in the locker.
    michaelgm
    What shots in the locker? The central issue holding back the economy is falling incomes and wages, that will NOT be fixed by cutting interest rates.

    The problem was baked in some 35 years ago under the Hawke/Keating "Accord" on prices and wages terminally weakening the power of the trade unions on the Australian political landscape. Howard put petrol on the fire with WorkChoices but we're at the end-game now where there are simply no mechanisms in place for labour to be able ask for more money. Nobody is spending money because they simply don't have it.

    It's seriously starting to hit the Commonwealth's bottom line too - Josh Frydenberg's projections for wages growth of 3-4% in the coming years are really fanciful; it's been more than seven years of sub-2% growth and suddenly he's factored in a wages break-out so they can achieve their much-vaunted surplus?

    Tell him he's dreaming.
    Posted: 07 Sep 2019 13:21
      michaelgm Chief Commissioner

    Don, any RBA move of a 25 point cut in rates is effectively a25% Intrest rate cut.
    And your on the money, people aren't spending what they don't have.

    Protect the surplus at all costs.

    Graham4405, illustrated perfectly in relation to Vale Brazil. Scumo and co dodged a bullet. So far.
    Posted: 07 Sep 2019 13:51
      Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

    Location: Dalby Qld
    Graham4405, illustrated perfectly in relation to Vale Brazil. Scumo and co dodged a bullet. So far.
    michaelgm
    Huh? Can't find my last post in this thread, it was more than two months ago, not sure what you are replying to?
    Posted: 07 Sep 2019 17:27

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