2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
The only reason no one will build one is for fear of what the govt will do to the coal power station producers in the future. What sort of punitive taxes will they face. Gillard opened that door, so now no one trusts the ALP to invest in such technology.
RTT_Rules
Are you absolutely sure that's the only reason? So, if the coalition is re-elected, they will have the luxury of a least 3 years to formulate an iron clad energy policy that will allow a new coal fired power station to be built cheaper than the alternatives?

For real?

Just like they have had this term to introduce ANY sort of energy policy? At least if Labor get in they will introduce SOME sort of policy, which is what the energy industry has been crying out for. Case in point is ERM Power, 25% owned by someone I imagine could be your hero, Trevor St Baker (who wanted to buy Hazelwood shortly before its closure, so wedded to coal is he). From ERM's most recent annual report "At its core, Australia needs an enduring national energy policy. This is important to providing an acceptable level of investment certainty to deliver sustainable, reliable and affordable energy. The exit of older baseload power stations and growth in intermittent generation has posed reliability issues and, along with the concentration of ownership of dispatchable generation, have been key factors driving up cost for energy consumers. This has been compounded by issues with the availability and price of gas. The lack of a stable, integrated national energy policy and poor energy infrastructure planning has stifled investment that supports the renewable energy transition. Industry and consumers urgently need a policy framework that supports investment without undermining market price transparency or competition. Failure to deliver such a policy framework will inevitably result in higher costs for energy consumers."  

*sigh* It is the policy vacuum from the current mob that is creating the unknown, which is holding back renewables. But, smart operators like AGL are getting out of coal because they know that there's no money in it for their shareholders in future decades, regardless of policy.

(edited once to clarify final paragraph)

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Don
Two points...
RTT_Rules
Look RTT ultimately we had an industry that helped keep working class wages above average at a time when the working class is getting savaged by the imbalance toward employers started by Hawke-Keating but accelerated under Howard. Be careful what you wish for with wages not keeping up with the cost of living - you're pushing the proletariat to their limits -

How much longer do you think the Big Four can continue to see their customers bleed like this: CoreLogic today 20/4/2019

City/last quarter/year-on-year
Sydney -2.62% -10.87%
Melbourne  -2.61% -9.83%
Brisbane (inc Gold Coast)  -0.95% -1.92%
Adelaide  -0.39% +0.26%
Perth  -2.39% -8.07%

Turns out residential property in the big east coast cities was a bad investment and Adelaide is kinda neutral - who could have known!

What's your forecast for how much longer the Aussie credit system continue to endure those kinds of falls...
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
The Falcon, Territory, and Commode,, and even the wide body Camry were great cars and ideal for long legged journeys, highly suited to our road conditions.

... Far greater than any so called European luxury cars...
ANR
Once I switched from Falcons/Commodores, I stopped having oil/transmission fluid puddles on the garage floor.

As for the great Aussie ute, they're mostly made in Thailand for a global market now. We either keep up or get left behind (yet again).
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Don
Two points...
Look RTT ultimately we had an industry that helped keep working class wages above average at a time when the working class is getting savaged by the imbalance toward employers started by Hawke-Keating but accelerated under Howard. Be careful what you wish for with wages not keeping up with the cost of living - you're pushing the proletariat to their limits
don_dunstan

Wage stagnation is a western phenomena not limited to here. Thank the GFC for that.

Don't expect 'no notion' to do anything about it either. Hanson's a big fan of Thatcher and her voting record in support of LNP wages policies is a fact.

You gotta love LNP socialism Razz

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/20/coalition-faces-calls-for-inquiry-into-murray-darling-deals-signed-by-barnaby-joyce
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The only reason no one will build one is for fear of what the govt will do to the coal power station producers in the future. What sort of punitive taxes will they face. Gillard opened that door, so now no one trusts the ALP to invest in such technology.
Are you absolutely sure that's the only reason? So, if the coalition is re-elected, they will have the luxury of a least 3 years to formulate an iron clad energy policy that will allow a new coal fired power station to be built cheaper than the alternatives?

For real?

Just like they have had this term to introduce ANY sort of energy policy? At least if Labor get in they will introduce SOME sort of policy, which is what the energy industry has been crying out for. Case in point is ERM Power, 25% owned by someone I imagine could be your hero, Trevor St Baker (who wanted to buy Hazelwood shortly before its closure, so wedded to coal is he). From ERM's most recent annual report "At its core, Australia needs an enduring national energy policy. This is important to providing an acceptable level of investment certainty to deliver sustainable, reliable and affordable energy. The exit of older baseload power stations and growth in intermittent generation has posed reliability issues and, along with the concentration of ownership of dispatchable generation, have been key factors driving up cost for energy consumers. This has been compounded by issues with the availability and price of gas. The lack of a stable, integrated national energy policy and poor energy infrastructure planning has stifled investment that supports the renewable energy transition. Industry and consumers urgently need a policy framework that supports investment without undermining market price transparency or competition. Failure to deliver such a policy framework will inevitably result in higher costs for energy consumers."  

*sigh* It is the policy vacuum from the current mob that is creating the unknown, which is holding back renewables. But, smart operators like AGL are getting out of coal because they know that there's no money in it for their shareholders in future decades, regardless of policy.

(edited once to clarify final paragraph)
DirtyBallast
Agree a policy vacuum by the LNP has not helped and I suspect the biggest stumbling block was the former PM Malcolm Turbull.

TA cut the CO2 tax, but I suspect didn't have time to do much else before being dumped nor at the time had the power prices become out of control with Northern and Hazellwood still running.

On the technical side, yes HV power line to SA, Tas and Snowy 2.0 all make sense in dealing with loss of coal, but on cost the benefit it doesn't stack up. Nothing proposed on the table will see power prices return to pre 2017 prices. As prices drop, the financial incentive to build more will also decline.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Don
Two points...
Look RTT ultimately we had an industry that helped keep working class wages above average at a time when the working class is getting savaged by the imbalance toward employers started by Hawke-Keating but accelerated under Howard. Be careful what you wish for with wages not keeping up with the cost of living - you're pushing the proletariat to their limits -

How much longer do you think the Big Four can continue to see their customers bleed like this: CoreLogic today 20/4/2019

City/last quarter/year-on-year
Sydney -2.62% -10.87%
Melbourne  -2.61% -9.83%
Brisbane (inc Gold Coast)  -0.95% -1.92%
Adelaide  -0.39% +0.26%
Perth  -2.39% -8.07%

Turns out residential property in the big east coast cities was a bad investment and Adelaide is kinda neutral - who could have known!

What's your forecast for how much longer the Aussie credit system continue to endure those kinds of falls...
don_dunstan
Australia has had lots of industries come and go over the years, some due to technology others due to off-shoring. We survived! I'm sure the strappers and horseman from Cobb'n'Co managed to find new jobs before dying of starvation.

I would argue the many employees are often better off today than in years gone by. Work place is safer, more transparent etc etc.

As for the big 4 banks, there was an article in ABC recently that showed the number of customers with properties now worth less than the mortgage. We are talking very low single digit % numbers and in some states, less than 1%. I'll see if I can find it again.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
ANR, please describe in detail your extensive knowledge of how Australian roads are so different to European roads.

You’ve never spent any time in Europe have you? You’ve never driven an Audi A7, A8, R8 or a Mercedes S class have you? Though the R8 is not really a luxury car, it’s a proper sports car.

I have done thousands of kilometres in those cars on European roads and highways across half a dozen countries. European ‘luxury’ vehicles, crap all over Australian so called ‘equivalents’, my father has a MY17 Holden Storm, the father in law did quite a few trips and kilometres in that when it was brand new, and whilst he liked it as a car he said his Audi was better - I agree.

My father drove his Storm from Adelaide to Perth and back, and it was a good trip apparently, but if he owned that and an Audi A7 I guarantee he would take the Audi.

There just is literally no comparison.

Perhaps not strangely the market agrees, ask yourself, is everyone buying a European car in Australia mistaken about it suitability here, or are you mistaken? When you’re one of the few, chances are you’re the one that’s incorrect.
Aaron
...and the price of purchase comparison???

We hear all the time on the ongoing often BS that Australian cars are crap, European is better, but the Audi lovers are quick to not mention the price. An Audi A8 costs upwards of $150k, the V8 Commodores with 650Hp were around half that price. Most German made cars also fair poorly on the reliability index vs the Japanese. The Development costs of the Commodore and Falcon are a fraction of the German models.

Until recently on the UK reliability index all the German car manufacturers were down in high teens to 20's position. The Top 3 usually include Honda and Toyota of which the Camry is part of that list. (I believe reliability is mean time to failure plus cost of repair). Last I looked VW had improved dramatically in recent years.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
1. You raised and talked about scruntineering, I never did, nor did I propose anything to compromise it.
Well, no, you didn't; apart from saying that you don't give a crap about scrutineering. How anyone can propose a change, and declare my comments about the status quo to be inadmissible (or "highjacking the thread"), is something that only you could possibly understand.

2. You raised the term censorship, I never did. I simply stated that the results be not published until the last booths closed in WA.
Censorship is the word I chose to describe it. ( Censor (Oxford): official with power to suppress whole or parts of books, plays, films, news etc. [my emphasis] ) Hence, censorship; an accurate description of your suggestion. It's still censorship, even if it expires at a time of the censor's discretion.
Valvegear
You may wish to harp on about scrunteering which has nothing to do with what I initially proposed and your ongoing comments about the definition of censorship.

However the point was and remains for those who can remain focused was that Australia has a practice that is questionable, almost internationally unheard of and may one day come to bite us on the smeg.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I think Western Australian voters are quite accustomed to voting for themselves in accordance with the issues they face.

I would wager that substantially few (ie ‘no’) people in WA sit down in front of the TV watching the results come in and think ‘I better go and vote now’ - even if they did, within an hour or so of close in the east what results are they going to see? News just in, Antony Green tells us ‘Farrer and Wentworth are going blue, Watson and Batman are going red’ - Amazing!
Aaron
The issue is Aaron is the Constitution is very black and white and it may go on for years without anyone raising a concern or an issue, however like Section 44 we have a problem that was there just waiting to surface its ugly head and in the end Section 44 cost us a number of bi-elections at $2m a pop and disrupted govt for months. Why, because of an issue everyone knew about but quietly ignored as it didn't make sense until bingo!

The same could happen with the Western Australian time lag issue. If an election was every some how compromised because of this then there is a potential $240m re-election at risk. The number of seats in WA is small and hence influence on the election results minimal but this may change. However overall I just feel it undermines the value of the vote in WA.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
However the point was and remains for those who can remain focused was that Australia has a practice that is questionable, almost internationally unheard of and may one day come to bite us on the smeg.
"RTT_Rules"
How many countries which hold free elections are the size of Australia and/or have multiple time zones?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Australia has had lots of industries come and go over the years, some due to technology others due to off-shoring. We survived! I'm sure the strappers and horseman from Cobb'n'Co managed to find new jobs before dying of starvation.
RTT_Rules
There's a direct relationship between the decline in wages and the fall in housing prices; even with absolute rock-bottom "emergency" level mortgage rates they can't prop up the current free-fall in eastern seaboard residential property prices, the credit system is throwing the entire nation into crisis because their customers are tapped out leading to a vicious feedback loop of falling prices and an evaporation of cashed-up buyers.

I was reading on News.com.au yesterday that Abbottsford and Windsor VIC have had the biggest falls of all recently, somewhere around 14% down in the last 12 months - that's a total disaster if you just sunk money into places like that enormous "Yarra Bend" development near Victoria Gardens. Even with tax write-downs for new you might still find yourself underwater - this situation would probably never had occurred to many buyers when they bought off the plan four/five years ago.

This is the present challenge - loss of well-paid jobs leading to the tax base stalling and problems with the credit system. I'm sure we haven't seen anything yet.
I would argue the many employees are often better off today than in years gone by. Work place is safer, more transparent etc etc.
RTT_Rules
The quality of the jobs simply isn't there. Look at how popular things like AfterPay have become in a very short period of time - there's no more credit available to fuel the system so people are turning to these kind of (officially) non-credit type products to buy things.
As for the big 4 banks, there was an article in ABC recently that showed the number of customers with properties now worth less than the mortgage. We are talking very low single digit % numbers and in some states, less than 1%. I'll see if I can find it again.
RTT_Rules
Edge of wedge.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
However the point was and remains for those who can remain focused was that Australia has a practice that is questionable, almost internationally unheard of and may one day come to bite us on the smeg.
How many countries which hold free elections are the size of Australia and/or have multiple time zones?
Valvegear
also note not all countries with 1 time zone hold their election on one day.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Wage stagnation is a western phenomena not limited to here. Thank the GFC for that.

Don't expect 'no notion' to do anything about it either. Hanson's a big fan of Thatcher and her voting record in support of LNP wages policies is a fact.

You gotta love LNP socialism Razz
Groundrelay
I'm only voting for the coal-fired power plant and even then there's no way One Nation will get anywhere near the levers of power to get that done - I know that.

Falling wages in the west appears to be a bi-partisan all party thing then - good. Maybe then the proletariat will get the idea that the ultimate aim is feudalism.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Australia has had lots of industries come and go over the years, some due to technology others due to off-shoring. We survived! I'm sure the strappers and horseman from Cobb'n'Co managed to find new jobs before dying of starvation.
There's a direct relationship between the decline in wages and the fall in housing prices; even with absolute rock-bottom "emergency" level mortgage rates they can't prop up the current free-fall in eastern seaboard residential property prices, the credit system is throwing the entire nation into crisis because their customers are tapped out leading to a vicious feedback loop of falling prices and an evaporation of cashed-up buyers.

I was reading on News.com.au yesterday that Abbottsford and Windsor VIC have had the biggest falls of all recently, somewhere around 14% down in the last 12 months - that's a total disaster if you just sunk money into places like that enormous "Yarra Bend" development near Victoria Gardens. Even with tax write-downs for new you might still find yourself underwater - this situation would probably never had occurred to many buyers when they bought off the plan four/five years ago.

This is the present challenge - loss of well-paid jobs leading to the tax base stalling and problems with the credit system. I'm sure we haven't seen anything yet.
I would argue the many employees are often better off today than in years gone by. Work place is safer, more transparent etc etc.
The quality of the jobs simply isn't there. Look at how popular things like AfterPay have become in a very short period of time - there's no more credit available to fuel the system so people are turning to these kind of (officially) non-credit type products to buy things.
As for the big 4 banks, there was an article in ABC recently that showed the number of customers with properties now worth less than the mortgage. We are talking very low single digit % numbers and in some states, less than 1%. I'll see if I can find it again.
Edge of wedge.
don_dunstan
There wasn't a correlation with housing prices going up, but now there is magically one with them going down.

No, the job market has changed, some industries have grown, others contracted. Do I like the de-industrialisation? No, but then again I'm hardly unbiased. Australia is a global player in a global market. Unions can fight for 100% penalty rates if they like, but OS such extravagances are rare and if we want to keep the jobs we need to do better.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Why ScoMo waited as long as possible, another few months he may have just saved them.

  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
also note not all countries with 1 time zone hold their election on one day.
"RTT_Rules"
We do. And you accuse me of irrelevance.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
There should be a bollocks button in this thread
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

The Murray Darling catastrophe will unravel at the ballot box. If the minor parties have their way, the so called scheme will finally be put under the microscope... and dealt with...
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
People who buy eurolux cars generally don't do so to drive across the Nullarbor, put high kilometres on them, rather, they do the minimum kms and hand it back to the leasing company and lease the next one....
ANR
Likely 99.9% of people who buy any car don't do so to drive across the Nullarbor, our put high kilometres on them.

What's your point? None of that supports your BS claim that European luxury cars are inferior to what used to be made in Australia for Australian conditions.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
However the point was and remains for those who can remain focused was that Australia has a practice that is questionable, almost internationally unheard of and may one day come to bite us on the smeg.
How many countries which hold free elections are the size of Australia and/or have multiple time zones?
Valvegear
A complex question because you have not mentioned which 'size' you want to compare, nonetheless by multiple time zones there are heaps of countries that run elections spanning multiples of them.

France, Russia (their elections are generally regarded as 'free'), USA, UK, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Indonesia, China (free elections?) are the 'big ones'. Then there are a bunch of other countries too like Ukraine, Spain, Congo (free elections?), South Africa, Portugal, even Papua New Guinea, but likely not worth considering for the purposes of elections. Then there are likely more yet that I cannot think of.

Australia is certainly no orphan when it comes to elections spanning multiple time zones.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

…………………………………………………………………………….

However the point was and remains for those who can remain focused was that Australia has a practice that is questionable, almost internationally unheard of and may one day come to bite us on the smeg.
RTT_Rules

Poll closing times are more likely determined by legislation rather than the Constitution. For example Compulsory Voting was introduced in the 1920s by a change to the Electoral Act made by the Parliament of the day (and probably could just as easily removed by similar action). The Act says booths must close at 6pm, which will be local zone time. Federal booths, but not State, used to close at 8pm in the 60s. In the US, with its 5 time zones, there doesn’t appear to be any embargo on the release of counting progress (although the US electoral system is another story).

Clive Palmer is still going on about pencils. The AEC provides pencils but you can use a pen, if you have one, to mark your ballot paper. Most people would be far more concerned about the prospect of electronic voting.

Anyway the polls open on the 29th April.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Further to the above, I left out that America is hugely famous for its election processes spanning potentially multiple years.

Not only that, America has multiple states that span multiple time zones, now you could argue that we have that here in Australia with NSW, but the US takes it to another level again. Mountain zone for example covers something like a dozen states, but only half of them are fully mountain zone, even US Central Time has more states partially in and out of it than entirely in it, Alaska has a time zone named for it, but not all of Alaska uses it.
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

Aaron, I have not had the opportunity to sit at the WASA border with a counter to count the percentage of the population that crosses the nullarbor each day. From my travels, I can categorically tell you that there are far more Toyotas, Fords, Holden and Nissans crossing the nullarbor than there are Mercs, BMWs and Audis crossing. It doesn't mean the eurolux cars are not up to the task, but I would not want to wait around in the middle of bugger all for parts service or a tow to the nearest capital city.

The original point I was trying to make is that all cars tend to be overengineered today, particularly the European ones, and if some critical sensor or component plays up, you are a long way from Munich if not Adelaide or Perth. This is why I said that our home made cars are suited to Australian conditions... For Holdens, Fords and Toyotas in particular, parts are generally available in regional areas, or can be sourced quickly and are rarely on backorder....
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Even basic things like no spare wheel.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
There wasn't a correlation with housing prices going up, but now there is magically one with them going down.
RTT_Rules
It's not magic, it's reality catching up to the residential property market. The Banking Royal Commission forced the banks to employ tougher lending standards at the same time as wages have not moved for several years - as I said earlier look at the runaway success of things like AfterPay if you want an indicated of how tapped out people are, people living on their credit cards to get by. Declining living standards eventually forced the easy money in residential property to start evaporating - see how fake the neo-Thatcherite 'prosperity' we've been enjoying in the last thirty years really is. All built on nothing.
Do I like the de-industrialisation? No, but then again I'm hardly unbiased. Australia is a global player in a global market. Unions can fight for 100% penalty rates if they like, but OS such extravagances are rare and if we want to keep the jobs we need to do better.
RTT_Rules
Unions represent less than ten percent of the private sector workforce in 2019 - how could anyone possibly expect them to do anything about the current situation? Government policy since Hawke/Keating has been to weaken and marginalise the union movement so there's nothing the unions can do about getting wages off the floor.

What do you mean by "we need to do better"? Do you think Aussie average wages should be cut further? 10% or 20% real terms? More? We're on the verge of major problems with our financial system right now - what do you think further cuts to wages will do to that situation?

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