EV sales 2019, Australia

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
2019 sales data seems to suggest EV's took 0.5% of all car sales, just over 5000 cars.

Tesla Model 3 took the cream with 3300 units (est) sold which is not bad considering they were only available for last 5mths of the year and all these were pre-sold many months in a advance.

For cars over $60,000, Tesla model 3 came in 2nd place behind Merc-C class.

EV includes plug in EV and plug in hybrid.


Globally, new vehicles sales are in decline, however EV's are stil increasing

US + EU + China

2017 ICE 60.5 M, EV 1.3 M
2018 ICE 59.0 M, EV 2.0 M
2019 ICE 56.5 M, EV 2.1 M

EV's are now
EU  0.5 M / 15 M annual sales or 3.3 %
China 1.2 M / 25 M sales or 4.8 %
US 0.33 M / 17 M sales or 1.9 %

In the EU and US, Model 3's dominate sales numbers, with China having a number of home brands but Model 3 local production started in Dec, so expect things to change there.

Obviously not all EV wanna be buyers want a Camry like EV sedan in a world quickly moving to SUV and 4x4's. Hence the market's expectation that the Model Y will smash the records set by the Model 3 and production capacity limitations will limit sales, despite other manufacturers starting to put their EV's in the showroom in increasing numbers from 2020/21.

My prediction, EV sales will > 5% in 2022 in the above markets. Australia is lagging due to limited options available, but will follow the trend of the US provided model availability isn't lacking. In Australia Tesla will outsell all others in the +$60k market in 2020.

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  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Subaru have said they'll ditch the IC engine in the next 15 years.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/820880/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s/

The big argument now is whether EVs need subsidies or not from Governments.  Political dynamite that one....
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Subaru have said they'll ditch the IC engine in the next 15 years.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/820880/subaru-plans-shift-to-an-all-electric-line-up-by-mid-2030s/

The big argument now is whether EVs need subsidies or not from Governments.  Political dynamite that one....
Carnot
YEp, following the steps of others who have already started to wind back R&D or in some cases completely stopped or will shortly.

As for subsidies, why? Its a car. Most EV's on the market now have luxury standards fit out, so should the tax payers be funding the wealthy to drive around in higher in cars regardless of the traction mode? The Model 3 is more aimed at the Camry market in standard of fit out, but still comes with a premium price tag, for now. So no, Australia hasn't started to subsidized EV's and nor should they start. If we made them here, you could argue its industry development, but we don't.

What the govt can do is help expand the EV charging network to encourage EV take up, which they are doing now.

What the govt is sitting on its hands on is the fuel tax issue, how to tax EV's and more likely how to tax all cars equally regardless of the fuel source as modern Hybrid's are paying a fraction of the fuel taxes that older ICE cars are.

My view is that all cars from 2021, all cars should pay road tax based on vehicle dry weight / km calculation that is charged each year during registration. For example your rego covers the first say 5000km (around $200 - 300), but extra km beyond that are paid during the following years registration or can be paid every Qtr if you so choose. Existing fuel taxes apart from GST are then removed.

Fraud is death with cancellation of the cars rego and $10,000 fines for the owner and $100,000 for business for first offence.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
Fraud is death with cancellation of the cars rego and $10,000 fines for the owner and $100,000 for business for first offence.
RTT_Rules

Death would seem to be a bit harsh...
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Road taxes would sadly be political suicide in Australia.

Anyway, Tesla now has a market value of US$100 billion. An interesting summary here:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-reaches-100-billion-valuation-1841155361

Note that Musk could pocket $50 billion if the shareprice continues to rise. Capitalism is sometimes way off reality.

Also note the differences between building a factory in China compared to Germany...
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Road taxes would sadly be political suicide in Australia.

Anyway, Tesla now has a market value of US$100 billion. An interesting summary here:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-reaches-100-billion-valuation-1841155361

Note that Musk could pocket $50 billion if the shareprice continues to rise. Capitalism is sometimes way off reality.

Also note the differences between building a factory in China compared to Germany...
Carnot
Fuel price would drop by what 60-70c/L in return for distance based charging which would match typical amounts already spent, less for older more thirsty cars.

Regardless of the solution, the EV / Hybrid issue won't go away and the more of them on the road, the less revenues, especially if they are mostly charged by domestic solar, govt doesn't even get GST.

I find it amazing that Tesla plans to build an assembly line in a country with some of the highest wages and strict union rules in the western world. Why not Poland or join the others in Slovakia. Would certainly help avoid small issues like WW2 bombs buried in the mud.

Let Musk earn it, he will never spend it. I have a bit of time for a guy who took on both the auto industry and space industry from nothing and built both companies into a major leading force in both sectors at the same time. However its cost him personally his marriage and likely alot more and I don't believe he will live to be an old man going by what is mentioned about his sleep patterns. He however does appear to have settled down somewhat in the last 1 year with less "interesting" comments in the social media.  Maybe he's smoking more pot?

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