Victorian Power Crisis

 
Topic moved from Victoria by dthead on 03 Feb 2020 21:35
  david harvey Chief Train Controller

Location: Bairnsdale Wharf Line
The thread was about particular power outage event of the power system and the assertion that it was failing before the damage to transmission infrastructure completely changes the argument but because it doesn't support your point of view you've decided that it isn't important. That's it in a nutshell.
Yeah, again, so it's about you.

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.
don_dunstan
Question without notice  Are you the former Premier of South Australia ?

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  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Assuming for the moment  that you are not trolling, I suggest reading some of the salient reports from the electricity regulator.

SA has the most reliable power generation in Australia
It generates and sells renewable power into the network at a lower cost
SA is a net power exporter
A small but critical number of batteries have brought stability to the frequency issue and at orders of magnitude savings cf keeping traditional power stations on standby. Batteries can be brought on line in nano seconds.
Large scale storages are in the planning and preconstruction stage. In SA, I understand there are 4 planned.
Andrewdr
You make it all sound so wonderful but the reality has been a huge mess resulting in what is STILL the very highest domestic electricity charges in the world @ 47 cents per kw/h and some rubbish patchwork solutions that they had to put in place at great expense to the people of South Australia to compensate for the fact that we no longer had reliable energy from the Playford power plant, closed way too soon.

Jay Weatherill's last year in office attests to $300,000,000 being spent on a huge, dirty back-up diesel power plant so that the lights wouldn't go off in Adelaide again as they did in 2016 and also had to force the re-opening of peaking gas plants that were previously deemed unviable - and now finally the 'problem that we never had' (according to some) is being 'fixed' yet again but the construction of a $1.3 billion HV line to NSW so we can get some stability from their coal fired plants. We are far from a 'green success story' here in South Australia - if anything we should serve as a warning to others not to follow our example.

The batteries have very little affect on the overall grid, what they do is absorb spikes and provide emergency power but in reality we can't rely on them as they're simply too small and will never be a meaningful part of the overall energy picture. And in another 10-15 years they'll be a massive mountain of toxic waste that needs to be reprocessed or permanently stored at great expense just like the myriad of solar panels that will also be damaged or life expired.

The cost of electricity in this state is killing business and driving investment away, there's no two ways about it. All for the sake of what - feeling good about lower carbon emissions while China builds a new coal-fired plant every fortnight? It's just expensive virtue signalling at the expense of our residents.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
The thread was about particular power outage event of the power system and the assertion that it was failing before the damage to transmission infrastructure completely changes the argument but because it doesn't support your point of view you've decided that it isn't important. That's it in a nutshell.
Yeah, again, so it's about you.

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.
Question without notice  Are you the former Premier of South Australia ?
david harvey
My avatar died in 1999.
  david harvey Chief Train Controller

Location: Bairnsdale Wharf Line
The thread was about particular power outage event of the power system and the assertion that it was failing before the damage to transmission infrastructure completely changes the argument but because it doesn't support your point of view you've decided that it isn't important. That's it in a nutshell.
Yeah, again, so it's about you.

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.
Question without notice  Are you the former Premier of South Australia ?
My avatar died in 1999.
don_dunstan
Im sorry to hear that .I will have to have a word to the whip ,the information I received from Hansard looks a little out of date. I think the sprit of D.D is well and truly alive whilst you are on R.P
  skitz Chief Commissioner

None of this needed to happen. We have virtually endless reserves of coal and electricity used to be cheap when we weren't afraid to use it.

The rest of the world isn't doing a damn thing about CO2 emissions...global emissions are still increasing, so we shouldn't bother either. Build some new 50 year coal fired plants.

Problem solved boys.
People get absolutely hysterical when you suggest we should be doing this, I've been called every name under the sun.

Nothing we do in this country will make a fig of difference to the final outcome, I don't know how many times I've had to point this out but people still go crazy when faced with that fact. We all share the same atmosphere, the coal will get burnt no matter what. All we are doing in this country is engaging in some very expensive virtue signalling and punishing the Australians who can least afford electricity by subsidising the rich and rewarding the promoters of these schemes like Malcolm Turnbull and the Holmes a'Court family.

The other logical alternative is to build a few nuclear plants (eg Portland VIC, Port Augusta SA, Woolongong NSW) but despite the fact that we have one of the world's largest supplies of uranium we're not allowed to do that either.

There are people who agree with you, they are just marginalised and shouted down.

Ideology and emotion has long since replaced logic and reason in this debate and climate change has been absorbed into broader elitist Left ideology. You are exactly correct when you point out that the coal will be burnt regardless. I have pointed this out to many as well and their answer is always "but its urgent and we need to stop burning coal here, right now."

There is either complete evasiveness or inability to grasp the scale of the China-India-US emissions issue and the fact that other countries will happily sell coal to them if we don't. Both China and India are also increasing domestic coal production...as well as nuclear.

The fact that the green movement, who are utterly incapable of compromise, wont accept the nuclear option is probably the biggest impediment to achieving their own objectives, but because they wont shift on the issue, they end up getting nothing that they want...like blocking Rudds ETS that had generally broad support, claiming it didn't go far enough, then ending up with Abbott abolishing their Carbon Tax entirely.

All they (the general Green-Left) have managed to achieve is making Australians pay more for electricity for no actual meaningful decrease in emissions.
Assuming for the moment  that you are not trolling, I suggest reading some of the salient reports from the electricity regulator.

SA has the most reliable power generation in Australia
It generates and sells renewable power into the network at a lower cost
SA is a net power exporter
A small but critical number of batteries have brought stability to the frequency issue and at orders of magnitude savings cf keeping traditional power stations on standby. Batteries can be brought on line in nano seconds.
Large scale storages are in the planning and preconstruction stage. In SA, I understand there are 4 planned.
New power stations utilising coal or nuclear power would produce power at significantly greater cost, the former producing greenhouse gases and the latter long term radioactive waste which we are yet to find a safe long term means of disposal.
Renewable energy is ideally suited to a decentralised grid which is, by its very nature, more robust and cheaper in the longer term.
Many existing coal fired power stations are reaching the end of their financially viable life span. Now is the time to plan for their decommissioning and replacement by more suitable sources of power.
Australia has an abundance of renewable resources. Indeed, there are active plans to export renewable power to Singapore.  
The world's major investors will bring about the necessary shift to renewable energy as the risks of stranded assets associated with traditional generation are too great
Andrewdr
SA also has regulated input of gas turbines for grid stability (remebler when AGL sold its gas because the risk of generation in SA said dont bother).  SA also used the mass of the eatern states as its 'battery' to manage the fluctuations of renewable energy.  The total picture needs these included.

These are big reasons why it survives as a grid, and being small in the scheme of things.   The third interconnector is more about reliability than capacity.   The price is driven by the risk in the supply, yet which is the more evil, having to pay for the inconnector or managing the risk of fluctuations?   Either way, until renewables factor in the storage to the real costs 'delivery when needed', its a distorted view of 'cheaper'.  Even being part of a larger grid, with transmission losses, its still a cost.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
Yeah, again, so it's about you.
don_dunstan


How the hell is that about me? That's some serious twisted logic.

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.
don_dunstan


Now your source is a Railpage poster? Nice one.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
How the hell is that about me? That's some serious twisted logic.
Fatty
I don't see anyone else here still interested in the exact sequence of events and trying to get me to explain it to them.
Now your source is a Railpage poster? Nice one.
Fatty
So you're calling him a liar?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Im sorry to hear that .I will have to have a word to the whip ,the information I received from Hansard looks a little out of date. I think the sprit of D.D is well and truly alive whilst you are on R.P
david harvey
If you choose to use your real name and your location on a public message board then that's entirely your choice. Personally I'd never do that.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
So you're calling him a liar?
don_dunstan
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
SA also has regulated input of gas turbines for grid stability (remebler when AGL sold its gas because the risk of generation in SA said dont bother).  SA also used the mass of the eatern states as its 'battery' to manage the fluctuations of renewable energy.  The total picture needs these included.

These are big reasons why it survives as a grid, and being small in the scheme of things.   The third interconnector is more about reliability than capacity.   The price is driven by the risk in the supply, yet which is the more evil, having to pay for the inconnector or managing the risk of fluctuations?   Either way, until renewables factor in the storage to the real costs 'delivery when needed', its a distorted view of 'cheaper'.  Even being part of a larger grid, with transmission losses, its still a cost.
skitz
NSW was having problems with load and supply of their own last week and were having to rely on Queensland to stop blackouts at one point; spending over a billion dollars to connect our unreliable supply with their unreliable supply isn't really fixing the overall issue which is one of consistency of supply. And yes, long distance transmission lines are really last century's infrastructure but here we are still building them in the name of bolstering the unreliable base supply we've made for ourselves.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
Fatty
So now you're calling me a liar - again?
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
So now you're calling me a liar - again?
don_dunstan
Care to point out where I called you a liar?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
Fatty
Care to point out where I called you a liar?
Fatty
It's been fun but I've got other stuff to do now...
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
Care to point out where I called you a liar?
It's been fun but I've got other stuff to do now...
don_dunstan
My goodness your comprehension skills really are terrible aren't they? You said I called you a liar again. The sentence you most helpfully put in bold implies that you may fabricate something in the future.


Yes, I'm sure you do. Enjoy your fact and evidence free posting.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
Care to point out where I called you a liar?
It's been fun but I've got other stuff to do now...
My goodness your comprehension skills really are terrible aren't they? You said I called you a liar again. The sentence you most helpfully put in bold implies that you may fabricate something in the future.


Yes, I'm sure you do. Enjoy your fact and evidence free posting.
Fatty
My, but you love to pat yourself on the back with your semantic cleverness, don't you. And I walked right into that one too didn't I - past and present tense - ha! I'm such an old fool being run around in rings by someone clearly the most intellectual one on the entire board.

All hail Fatty - just a minute while I make you a crown out of cardboard.
  Upven Locomotive Driver

I guess we're ignoring the repeated failures* of the ageing coal power plants (*4 units were down during the 43 degree day), one of which was closed only a few years ago, a decision made by the private operator Engie. The french multinational stated in 2016 that they would be exiting all coal activities. Coal is dead, so unless you like propping up corpses; it's time to move on. We can thank changing and growing shareholder concerns over the environment. Even Trump can't successfully revive coal in the United States, where coal is being progressively phased out by the publicly-listed energy companies that operate them. The only problem here is the approval of wind and solar has outpaced upgrades to the grid, a short term problem.

The "India/China" argument will be fixed once the EU introduces a border carbon tax.
  Andrewdr Locomotive Fireman

Assuming for the moment  that you are not trolling, I suggest reading some of the salient reports from the electricity regulator.

SA has the most reliable power generation in Australia
It generates and sells renewable power into the network at a lower cost
SA is a net power exporter
A small but critical number of batteries have brought stability to the frequency issue and at orders of magnitude savings cf keeping traditional power stations on standby. Batteries can be brought on line in nano seconds.
Large scale storages are in the planning and preconstruction stage. In SA, I understand there are 4 planned.
New power stations utilising coal or nuclear power would produce power at significantly greater cost, the former producing greenhouse gases and the latter long term radioactive waste which we are yet to find a safe long term means of disposal.
Renewable energy is ideally suited to a decentralised grid which is, by its very nature, more robust and cheaper in the longer term.
Many existing coal fired power stations are reaching the end of their financially viable life span. Now is the time to plan for their decommissioning and replacement by more suitable sources of power.
Australia has an abundance of renewable resources. Indeed, there are active plans to export renewable power to Singapore.  
The world's major investors will bring about the necessary shift to renewable energy as the risks of stranded assets associated with traditional generation are too great
A few points of order

SA is heavily dependent on coal when the wind, sun and gas fall short and led to price hikes exceeding $11,000 Mw last week.

I agree SA has finally turned the corner and now feeding itself power wise and exporting, however there is a gas plant due to close shortly and was only kept on line over summer at request of AMEO.

For Jan, SA power prices were 3rd highest out of the five NEM states, more than the cost of new coal power.

The reduction in whole sale price has now seen investment in RE in SA such as wind and solar almost cease.

AEMO has instructed a number of RE operators and projects to change their technology to better look after the grid, it was not an input, they were told to do it. Vic, NSW, Qld, Tas don't have such an issue due to their large numbers of mechanical turbines and this frequency control is also used by SA, not just the battery.

There is currently no viable alternative to most of the remaining coal power stations, including gas and hydro. What SA has achieved is only made possible because SA is small. You could not achieve the same in any of the other east coast states.

Exporting electrons to Singapore?

I'm a supporter of RE, but lets no throw the physics out with the bath water.
RTT_Rules
Dependence on coal when no wind and sun - of course! Because gas is so inordinately expensive, other sources of lower cost power are sort and hence SA gas based power as a % will drop. This is why an adequate and functional interconnector system is so important.
$11000 per Mw - beware of conflating 30 min spot prices with longer term prices. The bidding system is such that it lends itself to manipulation and some power suppliers exploit this. EG, withholding power at high demand periods to force up spot prices! If you look at the NEM overall you will find high spot prices in every jurisdiction.
January is a known low month for wind power. Large highs sit over Australia for long periods. The NEM factors this in advance. More gas than usual is used and the price goes up accordingly. In Australia we have the scandalous situation where we pay very high prices for domestic gas while exported gas is much lower. Most, if not all, large gas exporting countries have a set and lower gas price cf export prices.
Investment in RE stalled in SA? Talk to the other states as well, especially NSW and Vic where new and in construction solar farms have had their production curtailed by up to 50%. Why? Because of the mendacity, incompetence and greed of the LNP re planning sound policies and funding for the provision of an adequate rural grid to move the production based on the old central grid system. [See article in ABC News today] We currently subsidise coal to the tune of $1050/person/annum. This money could be better spent expanding the RE industry.  No wonder they don't want a Federal ICAC!
I understand that all States are committed to net zero emissions by 2050. While progress will undoubtable be made by the States, to do it in the most efficient and effective way, talking into account the financial, economic, social and environmental factors requires Commonwealth participation and commitment! Transitioning needs to start early to minimise wastage, loss of
investment and minimise negative social impacts.
Changing the technology for RE to better manage the stability of the grid - absolutely. Note that it was not a requirement when these plants were designed and commissioned.
No existing alternative to the current coal fired power stations. Precisely - that is the problem that those who understand the issues have been pressuring the Commonwealth Govt to get off their butt and stop propping up coal because of the donations. It is the tobacco industry problem all over again, with the same playbook being used.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
So you're calling him a liar?
Nope, I'm sure the power went off at his place. We don't know why but I'm sure that you'll be able to fabricate a reason for it.
Care to point out where I called you a liar?
It's been fun but I've got other stuff to do now...
My goodness your comprehension skills really are terrible aren't they? You said I called you a liar again. The sentence you most helpfully put in bold implies that you may fabricate something in the future.


Yes, I'm sure you do. Enjoy your fact and evidence free posting.
My, but you love to pat yourself on the back with your semantic cleverness, don't you. And I walked right into that one too didn't I - past and present tense - ha! I'm such an old fool being run around in rings by someone clearly the most intellectual one on the entire board.

All hail Fatty - just a minute while I make you a crown out of cardboard.
don_dunstan
My you love to be condescending don't you? I wasn't about semantics or tense but once again you've missed the point entirely.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
My you love to be condescending don't you? I wasn't about semantics or tense but once again you've missed the point entirely.
Fatty
Well in case you haven't noticed I thrive on attention. You were so clever you pinged me on my future lies and for that I'm eternally grateful. And don't forget that we're writing a PhD thesis here on Railpage so I'm brimming with excitement when someone pulls up the discussion on a tiny detail, it's critically important that we get all these tiny details correct for when we publish.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
My you love to be condescending don't you? I wasn't about semantics or tense but once again you've missed the point entirely.
Well in case you haven't noticed I thrive on attention. You were so clever you pinged me on my future lies and for that I'm eternally grateful. And don't forget that we're writing a PhD thesis here on Railpage so I'm brimming with excitement when someone pulls up the discussion on a tiny detail, it's critically important that we get all these tiny details correct for when we publish.
don_dunstan
That's not it either mate.

Yes, I get it. The tiny details like what actually happened are unimportant to you.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.


Now your source is a Railpage poster? Nice one.
Fatty
Point of order, I never claimed that the problem here with 5000 homes and businesses around Castlemaine and Chewton without power on Friday morning was due to load shedding I said that the cause was unknown. I have not been able to find out what the cause was since (although I have been busy at work and haven't tried very hard). I did however email my local member of parliament seeking an answer on why we have had at least 4 blackouts lasting over an hour here in the last 12 months but of coarse no response so far.

I have been told by someone with connections to Alcoa that the inter-connector failed before the Cressy poles fell over but I am not going to report that as a fact or fiction until I see some kind of official report on the matter. The problem with official reports of course....... Yes Minister.......
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
My you love to be condescending don't you? I wasn't about semantics or tense but once again you've missed the point entirely.
Well in case you haven't noticed I thrive on attention. You were so clever you pinged me on my future lies and for that I'm eternally grateful. And don't forget that we're writing a PhD thesis here on Railpage so I'm brimming with excitement when someone pulls up the discussion on a tiny detail, it's critically important that we get all these tiny details correct for when we publish.
That's not it either mate.

Yes, I get it. The tiny details like what actually happened are unimportant to you.
Fatty
No - I'm agreeing with you. We are writing a tome of extreme importance here on the Railpage discussion board and its incredibly important that we record every single detail accurately. Go hard or go home sorta thing.

What size is your head, I'm just cutting you out a crown for the King of Details on Railpage. I can only have kindy scissors though because I'm so dumb so it's taking me a long time...
  Carnot Minister for Railways


And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.


Now your source is a Railpage poster? Nice one.Point of order, I never claimed that the problem here with 5000 homes and businesses around Castlemaine and Chewton without power on Friday morning was due to load shedding I said that the cause was unknown. I have not been able to find out what the cause was since (although I have been busy at work and haven't tried very hard). I did however email my local member of parliament seeking an answer on why we have had at least 4 blackouts lasting over an hour here in the last 12 months but of coarse no response so far.

I have been told by someone with connections to Alcoa that the inter-connector failed before the Cressy poles fell over but I am not going to report that as a fact or fiction until I see some kind of official report on the matter. The problem with official reports of course....... Yes Minister.......
BrentonGolding
One of the big reasons for an increase in blackouts recently could be the installation of Rapid Earth Fault Current Limiters (REFCL) across the State.  They might prevent fires, but they can also create other issues.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne
My you love to be condescending don't you? I wasn't about semantics or tense but once again you've missed the point entirely.
Well in case you haven't noticed I thrive on attention. You were so clever you pinged me on my future lies and for that I'm eternally grateful. And don't forget that we're writing a PhD thesis here on Railpage so I'm brimming with excitement when someone pulls up the discussion on a tiny detail, it's critically important that we get all these tiny details correct for when we publish.
That's not it either mate.

Yes, I get it. The tiny details like what actually happened are unimportant to you.
No - I'm agreeing with you. We are writing a tome of extreme importance here on the Railpage discussion board and its incredibly important that we record every single detail accurately. Go hard or go home sorta thing.

What size is your head, I'm just cutting you out a crown for the King of Details on Railpage. I can only have kindy scissors though because I'm so dumb so it's taking me a long time...
don_dunstan

Seriously? You need to get a grip mate.
  Fatty Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne

And the Victorian system WAS failing prior to the HV line collapse at Cressy, they were load-shedding as Brenton Golding can attest.


Now your source is a Railpage poster? Nice one.Point of order, I never claimed that the problem here with 5000 homes and businesses around Castlemaine and Chewton without power on Friday morning was due to load shedding I said that the cause was unknown. I have not been able to find out what the cause was since (although I have been busy at work and haven't tried very hard). I did however email my local member of parliament seeking an answer on why we have had at least 4 blackouts lasting over an hour here in the last 12 months but of coarse no response so far.

I have been told by someone with connections to Alcoa that the inter-connector failed before the Cressy poles fell over but I am not going to report that as a fact or fiction until I see some kind of official report on the matter. The problem with official reports of course....... Yes Minister.......
BrentonGolding
Yes I was surprised you were used as a source when you didn't attribute a cause to the outage. Given that the only mention of load shedding has been in the Murdoch press I'd be interested to know if it is true.

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