Victorian Power Crisis

 
Topic moved from Victoria by dthead on 03 Feb 2020 21:35
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Yes.
The tax break is the diesel fuel subsidy that users of fuel that don't use the vehicle on roads get.  ie they don't pay a road use tax.
Mining companies, farmers, etc are all eligible if the vehicle is not used on a road.
So no special subsidies just because they are COAL mines.

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  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
RTT, a brilliant post. It eloquently illustrated why privatisation is F*****.
michaelgm
I think particularly in the country that the reliability of supply has suffered terribly. My friends who live outside of Ballarat on the Glenelg Highway have said similar things to Brenton about the reliability of their power. Unexplained outages for hours at a time, no notice and no explanation when it suddenly comes back on again.

It adds an extra layer to the problems that you face living rural.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Yes.
The tax break is the diesel fuel subsidy that users of fuel that don't use the vehicle on roads get.  ie they don't pay a road use tax.
Mining companies, farmers, etc are all eligible if the vehicle is not used on a road.
So no special subsidies just because they are COAL mines.
Donald
Here's a question regarding subsidies - does Rail pay the full excise on diesel (currently 42.3c per litre + GST)? The Aviation industry faces no such impost on the purchase of the Kero it needs to light up those Jet engines - Jet fuel excise is 3.566 per litre - no wonder flying is cheap, there's a subsidy for you!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Yes.
The tax break is the diesel fuel subsidy that users of fuel that don't use the vehicle on roads get.  ie they don't pay a road use tax.
Mining companies, farmers, etc are all eligible if the vehicle is not used on a road.
So no special subsidies just because they are COAL mines.
Here's a question regarding subsidies - does Rail pay the full excise on diesel (currently 42.3c per litre + GST)? The Aviation industry faces no such impost on the purchase of the Kero it needs to light up those Jet engines - Jet fuel excise is 3.566 per litre - no wonder flying is cheap, there's a subsidy for you!
BrentonGolding
I don't believe so.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
A bit of context - the vast majority of subsidy is taxed based. That $1050/pp figure is overblown. It's more like half that amount.

Still, it raises questions of where are the big profits going, and are those tax based subsidies based on tax breaks that other industries get?
Carnot
No, incorrect, its more like SFA of that number. Half would be still be multiple nuclear power stations as Aaron pointed out.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Here's a question regarding subsidies - does Rail pay the full excise on diesel (currently 42.3c per litre + GST)? The Aviation industry faces no such impost on the purchase of the Kero it needs to light up those Jet engines - Jet fuel excise is 3.566 per litre - no wonder flying is cheap, there's a subsidy for you!
I don't believe so.
RTT_Rules
This is from 2000 but suggests Rail and Marine were made part of the rebate scheme after2000

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP06

Good lord it is complicated to try to figure out that stuff, I give up!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
RTT, a brilliant post. It eloquently illustrated why privatisation is F*****.
I think particularly in the country that the reliability of supply has suffered terribly. My friends who live outside of Ballarat on the Glenelg Highway have said similar things to Brenton about the reliability of their power. Unexplained outages for hours at a time, no notice and no explanation when it suddenly comes back on again.

It adds an extra layer to the problems that you face living rural.
don_dunstan
Answer to Mic,
No, the govt operations were worse. At least you know the private sector is in it for a buck, the govt sector was all over the place, under funded, over funded, black outs through lack of investment, govts raiding the cash reserves for future projects, deferral of new power stations, prices up at next election, no rises for 3 years after, playing politics over power prices, inflexible tarriffing, was the power sector being run sustainably etc etc etc. And thats just in my life time.

Gladstone power station was privatised in the mid 90's, with it saw significant job cuts, yet the power output remains and the countries largest and most sensitive customer has not suffered an unreliable power supply as a result. Milmerrium in the Qld SW was built from new private, remains a reliable contributor to the states and NEM grid. So I think we can kill the BS argument private equals unreliable power.


At the end of the day, the govt must ensure the approproate regulation for the private sector to operate in a sustainable fashion. Works elsewhere, even worked in Australia, it will work here.

My parents live 100km from Sydney CBD, in bad weather power is unreliable and has been since they moved there in 1982, when the state's power was govt owned. Its a simple problem, its called "trees". Just walk down the street after wind and you will forever see branches tangled in the wires. Moral of the story, above ground power and trees don't mix, but who will pay for putting the lines in the ground?

What you have now is blatant stupid ideology flying in the face of denial.

The govts sold the coal power stations when coal was king and mostly did well from the sales. Now coal is evil, so lets talk the industry down how its killing us, meanwhile coal still supplies around 71% of all NEM power (down from 82% under govt ownership). Meanwhile it takes 100 wind turbines to supply the same amount of power as a single coal turbine which has a reliability of 85-90% (mostly planned), but the wind varies from near 0 - 100%, often daily unplanned.  

The govt talks down the industry so much, they cannot justify investing in modern coal, so we are left with an increasingly aging fleet of coal power stations supplying over 2/3 our power for the next 5 years at least.

Qld govt lead by Anna P is the biggest hypocritic of the all, sprouting RE this and that. In the last 10 years thanks to the stupidity in the south, Qld coal power stations have increased their output from 47GW a year to 52 GW and allowing the high power prices in the south thanks to under investment and unplanned closures to double Qld whole sale power prices and in return profits to the Qld govt to prop up Anna's bankrupt state who claims to be sailing Qld to a RE future, while still asking the feds to fund a feas study into a high efficiency coal power station!

SA and to a lessor degree has been playing catchup over the last 5 years to repair the damage done to their generation capacity and reliability by allowing the private operators to close their coal power stations at short notice due to the finaical damaged caused by unfair competition by non-despatachable RE. Surprise, no wind or sun, no power, really how long did thing think it would take to work this out.

2020, we are seeing lower wholesale prices as RE has finally caught up, to some degree. It won't last, RE investment is coming to a fast end thanks to unattractive prices, meanwhile the coal fleet continues to age and Liddel's closure approaches, then NSW already a net importer of power, will again likely be short of reliable power driving up prices across the NEM, again! Once again business and domestic users in the likes of Qld will be hit with elevated power prices as NSW continues the experiment.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Here's a question regarding subsidies - does Rail pay the full excise on diesel (currently 42.3c per litre + GST)? The Aviation industry faces no such impost on the purchase of the Kero it needs to light up those Jet engines - Jet fuel excise is 3.566 per litre - no wonder flying is cheap, there's a subsidy for you!
I don't believe so.
This is from 2000 but suggests Rail and Marine were made part of the rebate scheme after2000

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP06

Good lord it is complicated to try to figure out that stuff, I give up!
BrentonGolding
Yeah, i thought initially it was there before common sense reined in the fed govt.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

An interesting story about how grid constraints are preventing the construction of new solar farms in NW Vic and elsewhere:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/

That corresponds with what I've been told by those in the know.  The question now is how quickly can the grid be upgraded to cope with this new generation?
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
An interesting story about how grid constraints are preventing the construction of new solar farms in NW Vic and elsewhere:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/

That corresponds with what I've been told by those in the know.  The question now is how quickly can the grid be upgraded to cope with this new generation?
Carnot
And who is going to pay for said upgrades.......

Some talk that "community" solar and battery projects will become the new norm instead of mega projects in the middle of nowhere for the same reasons.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
An interesting story about how grid constraints are preventing the construction of new solar farms in NW Vic and elsewhere:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/

That corresponds with what I've been told by those in the know.  The question now is how quickly can the grid be upgraded to cope with this new generation?
And who is going to pay for said upgrades.......

Some talk that "community" solar and battery projects will become the new norm instead of mega projects in the middle of nowhere for the same reasons.
BrentonGolding
Roof top solar is already there and already in many areas facing transmission limitations, growth will continue but it will slow and limited to suburban, townhouse, light commercial and industrial locations. If everyone in your street was to install a 5kW system on your roof its probably ok, but if they upgrade to 10kW then unlikely no and the system won't take it.

Large scale plants have the benefit of having a high rate of efficiency from just after sun up to sun down. Just overlay the bell curves for roof top production vs solar farm production for any state to see what I mean. Roof top is very steep, where as solar farms are more a plateau because their panels are on a rotating axis.

Additionally building solar farms out west 30min in solar time behind the east coast sprawl has the advantage of helping feed into the evening peak time which is the highest whole sale price after sundown east of the Great Dividing Range.

So large scale is here to stay and I think the major growth we will see going forward, more so than roof top, however the power generation industry needs to accept it must contribute towards the HV network upgrade required.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
"Additionally building solar farms out west 30min in solar time behind the east coast sprawl has the advantage of helping feed into the evening peak time which is the highest whole sale price after sundown east of the Great Dividing Range."
Wouldn't it better to have the solar farms in W.A. to take full advantage of the 2 hour time difference for peak east coast usage?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
"Additionally building solar farms out west 30min in solar time behind the east coast sprawl has the advantage of helping feed into the evening peak time which is the highest whole sale price after sundown east of the Great Dividing Range."
Wouldn't it better to have the solar farms in W.A. to take full advantage of the 2 hour time difference for peak east coast usage?
Donald
Even better, why not put massive wind towers along the beaches in the electorate of Warringah? Perfect spot, they'll get wind all year round. I'm sure local MP Zali Steggall would love the sight of them dotted along the fore-shore complimenting those million-dollar mansions perfectly.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The is no electron conveyance between WA and the east.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

"Additionally building solar farms out west 30min in solar time behind the east coast sprawl has the advantage of helping feed into the evening peak time which is the highest whole sale price after sundown east of the Great Dividing Range."
Wouldn't it better to have the solar farms in W.A. to take full advantage of the 2 hour time difference for peak east coast usage?
Even better, why not put massive wind towers along the beaches in the electorate of Warringah? Perfect spot, they'll get wind all year round. I'm sure local MP Zali Steggall would love the sight of them dotted along the fore-shore complimenting those million-dollar mansions perfectly.
don_dunstan
If you agree that the next coal power station gets built in Cook, we've got a deal.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
The is no electron conveyance between WA and the east.
Aaron
If there was it would lose a huge amount of energy crossing that vast distance wouldn't it?

Also interesting to note that long distance HV transmission lines are quite vulnerable to solar flares as seen in Canada in 1989 when solar flare activity blacked out half the country.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Even better, why not put massive wind towers along the beaches in the electorate of Warringah? Perfect spot, they'll get wind all year round. I'm sure local MP Zali Steggall would love the sight of them dotted along the fore-shore complimenting those million-dollar mansions perfectly.
don_dunstan
I think this is a great idea. Those massive towers will look much more to scale against the mansions of Warringah. Plus we all know those big houses use heaps of power to heat and cool so why not put the power generation nice and close to the end user!
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Roof top solar is already there and already in many areas facing transmission limitations, growth will continue but it will slow and limited to suburban, townhouse, light commercial and industrial locations. If everyone in your street was to install a 5kW system on your roof its probably ok, but if they upgrade to 10kW then unlikely no and the system won't take it.
RTT_Rules
Wasn't talking about rooftop, was referring to smaller scale solar farms with on site battery storage designed to power a local area (or community as they put it) as a workaround for the infrastructure problems currently being experienced.

I read an article on one but can't find it now.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Meanwhile, big losses are being racked up by renewable energy companies, including Downer:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector-33796/
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Meanwhile, big losses are being racked up by renewable energy companies, including Downer:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector-33796/
Carnot
It is interesting that the renewables sector seeks to blame government for the lack of investment in the grid. Were these problems foreseen by anyone in the sector from AEMO right down to the builders of the projects? Surely there must have been risk analysis done?

It seems to me that if you are building a renewable plant then it is your obligation to do the analysis as to whether the infrastructure is there to support you or not.

I am not being anti renewables here I am simply wondering as the cost of any upgrade of the grid is going to be borne by all of us through increased power bills. (or more likely not seeing any benefit in our bills from lower cost renewable generation)

If we simply built new coal / gas / nuclear stations close to the ageing ones that are reaching end of life would we still have this problem? And no, before you all jump all over me, I am NOT advocating for new coal fired power stations simply posing a question.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Meanwhile, big losses are being racked up by renewable energy companies, including Downer:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector-33796/
It is interesting that the renewables sector seeks to blame government for the lack of investment in the grid. Were these problems foreseen by anyone in the sector from AEMO right down to the builders of the projects? Surely there must have been risk analysis done?

It seems to me that if you are building a renewable plant then it is your obligation to do the analysis as to whether the infrastructure is there to support you or not.

I am not being anti renewables here I am simply wondering as the cost of any upgrade of the grid is going to be borne by all of us through increased power bills. (or more likely not seeing any benefit in our bills from lower cost renewable generation)

If we simply built new coal / gas / nuclear stations close to the ageing ones that are reaching end of life would we still have this problem? And no, before you all jump all over me, I am NOT advocating for new coal fired power stations simply posing a question.
BrentonGolding
New coal, gas, nuclear has the problem of being simply too expensive and no one (apart from Govts) are willing to fund it.

The renewable sector thought they could make a quick $$ building solar and wind generation, while distributors said "go ahead" because it's a good look for us, but they (and Govts) weren't going to pay the bills for new HV infrastructure with power bills already heading North....
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Roof top solar is already there and already in many areas facing transmission limitations, growth will continue but it will slow and limited to suburban, townhouse, light commercial and industrial locations. If everyone in your street was to install a 5kW system on your roof its probably ok, but if they upgrade to 10kW then unlikely no and the system won't take it.
Wasn't talking about rooftop, was referring to smaller scale solar farms with on site battery storage designed to power a local area (or community as they put it) as a workaround for the infrastructure problems currently being experienced.

I read an article on one but can't find it now.
BrentonGolding
Nearly all communities are connected to the grid so it matters not where it is built. Usually larger scale is cheaper.  The other issue in built up suburban areas there is limited space for solar apart from roof top. YEs a battery can be placed almost anywhere, but this also just spreads the cost of maintenance from centralised locations, which again is usually cheaper.

Overall yes to a degree, but for solar you need to go west.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
New coal, gas, nuclear has the problem of being simply too expensive and no one (apart from Govts) are willing to fund it.

The renewable sector thought they could make a quick $$ building solar and wind generation, while distributors said "go ahead" because it's a good look for us, but they (and Govts) weren't going to pay the bills for new HV infrastructure with power bills already heading North....
Carnot
Sorry, this is not true. Private investment is funding coal OS. The funding issues in places like Australia are political, not economic. If there was no political risk to building a coal power station, one would be built on economic business case no issue.

Nuclear is a bit different, they normally cannot get insurance so need political guarantees to enable private fiance to be secured along with a price guarantee.

If I build a factory 100km from the nearest HV line, who pays for the connection now?

So if I build a solar power station 100km from the nearest HV line, who should also pay for the connection?

What Australia needs for many a power generation project to proceed on private funding is to provide minimum price guarantees, which is how it works in many parts of the world and I believe Millmerium in Qld, regardless of the technology of generation. This is what killed a solar thermal project in SA, the banks are simply too nervous on the ability for repayment of long period loans in a market with a poor history of regulation and stability.

PV solar and wind is quick and cheap to install (the catch cry of the Church of Climatology) , but near useless on their own or combined as a source of power (something the same worshipers are very quiet on). So if power prices are high and expected to remain so for a few years, easy finance.

If the SA state govt wanted solar thermal, they just needed to underwrite the annual average min price, which they won't, so the banks wave the middle finger and thus entrenching medium to high power prices for Australia for the forseable future.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Nearly all communities are connected to the grid so it matters not where it is built. Usually larger scale is cheaper.  The other issue in built up suburban areas there is limited space for solar apart from roof top. YEs a battery can be placed almost anywhere, but this also just spreads the cost of maintenance from centralised locations, which again is usually cheaper.

Overall yes to a degree, but for solar you need to go west.
RTT_Rules
Ah but that is where you are wrong, ATM in Australia it makes a HELL of a difference where it is built'

https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-to-meet-wind-and-solar-industry-over-nsw-victoria-grid-blockages-63828/

7 year delays now being spoken about by AEMO.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Nearly all communities are connected to the grid so it matters not where it is built. Usually larger scale is cheaper.  The other issue in built up suburban areas there is limited space for solar apart from roof top. YEs a battery can be placed almost anywhere, but this also just spreads the cost of maintenance from centralised locations, which again is usually cheaper.

Overall yes to a degree, but for solar you need to go west.
Ah but that is where you are wrong, ATM in Australia it makes a HELL of a difference where it is built'

https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-to-meet-wind-and-solar-industry-over-nsw-victoria-grid-blockages-63828/

7 year delays now being spoken about by AEMO.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/
BrentonGolding
Ok, yes this is also true, the coal/hyrdo/gas turbines control the grid frequency and you can only add so much of the other and then depends where incase of outage of certain feeders.

As more solar/wind is added to the grid, hardware is required to deal with harmonics, frequency etc etc. You get so much as free lunch (I've previously read 20-25%), then the cost of the grid starts to rise as you add more.

In SA, a recent solar farm project is derated for grid frequency management, actual how and why I don't know.

If you look at the price rises in power for last 10 years, grid costs in dealing with RE is one of the major components.

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