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DANIEL Andrews would lose his majority if the results of last month’s federal poll were matched at a state election.
The Herald Sun has obtained a secret Liberal Party analysis of the federal election results showing the Labor Party would lose one of the four seats on the Frankston Line it won of the Liberals at the 2014 election.
Labor would also drop three seats in the inner city to the Greens the analysis found.
If the results were reproduced at a state election the Andrews Government’s two seat majority would disappear, meaning it would need the support of the Greens or a rural independent to retain office.
The Liberal analysis found the Liberal Party would win back the seat of Bentleigh comfortably if federal election results were reproduced at the next state poll.
It would also cut Labor’s majority in the next door seat of Mordialloc to 0.8 per cent.
Labor would also struggle to hold its seats of Albert Park and Eltham if the federal results were replicated, while the Greens would win the seats of Richmond, Northcote and Brunswick if the results were replicated.
A senior Labor source said ALP analysis of the election had produced a similar result.
The news was not all bad for Labor from the federal poll however. The Liberal analysis found the ALP would have got a swing of 4.5 per cent on the two-party preferred basis in the seat of Carrum.
It would also have improved its position in Frankston where the Liberal document the party faces “demographic challenges”.
Meanwhile the first opinion poll taken after the federal election has found state Labor’s primary vote has dropped since the 2014 state election.
The state wide ReachTEL poll taken earlier this month found the ALP on primary vote of 34.5, down from the 38.1 per cent it got in 2014.
If the results were reproduced across the state the result would see Labor dropping six seats to the Liberals.
This article first appeared on www.heraldsun.com.au
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