It's better to judge a government's priorities by its budgets not by its words

Today very serious, very educated and very rational people

from the government will be telling us what we can't have because it would cost

too much. One must be realistic.  It's what responsible management demands

while wasting not a single moment in getting things done. There is no

alternative. The minuses on one sheet must reconcile with the pluses on another

as Numbers Do Not Lie.

That's

the side of government we'll see today.

It's a far cry from late last year just before the

election. Then we saw the government's visionary, creative and intuitive

elements on display.  Most active before elections, they dabble in

the strategic, long-term, state-building, and, yes, vote-winning, realms.

Financially adventurous, they ask 'How do we fund?' more

often than 'Can we fund?'. Their antics have made past governments prone

to the offerings of spruikers proposing novel off-book financing for their pet

schemes. In Australia that's been anything from seeking unconventional finance to

develop energy projects to unsustainable transport franchise

contracts in an attempt to save money. Fancy schemes rarely end

well.  

If the numbers initially don't work you make them work. One

might quantify benefits that most people wouldn't express in financial terms.

The more you rely on 'wider economic benefits' the spongier things get. You

might accuse opponents of being 'narrow' or 'small minded'. Projects could be

strung out over long periods, so paying for them becomes someone else's

problem. And don't put it beyond governments to leave their successors

unwelcome presents, as Labor did with myki in 2010 and the Liberals did with

the expensive to cancel East West Link road

project in 2014.

Context

So much for history, where do we find ourselves today? Victoria's population

is growing rapidly so there remains increased demand for services such as

state-provided health, transport and education. Prisons aren't cheap. And

there's a large capital works program with more grade separations, more roads

and more trains coming on stream.  People will be looking for the

government to honour commitments made there.  That's on the spending side.

On the income side, Australian state governments have few

independent revenue sources.  Payroll tax, gambling taxes, stamp duty and

land taxes are some of the major examples. However the softening property

market means reduced income from the latter.  The recent federal election

has returned a result the state Labor government was not expecting (nor would

have liked).

Even ahead of that the treasurer has signalled there will be some tough

decisions made. That means either tax hikes and/or spending cuts. Although as

it's the first budget after the election now is politically the best time to do

them as they will likely have been forgotten by the 2022 election.  

Last year's budget (May 1, 2018)

Before we see the contents of this year's budget we'll

examine the salient part of last year's state budget. At the very

least familiarity with it should make it easier to find things in this year's

document.

The budget papers most important for public transport are:

* Paper 3 (Service Delivery) from

page 10 and again page 117

* Paper 4 (State Capital Program) from

page 2, page 20 and again page 25

Some service km per capita calculations from Daniel Bowen

are here

This

year's budget (May 27, 2019)

Visit http://budget.vic.gov.au

Shortcut to budget papers here

On Twitter follow #vicbudget

Salient points from Paper 3 (Service Delivery)

* Better Buses Fund. Ramping up to $6.4m in 2022-3.

Includes more frequent services in Romsey & Lancefield, new Mernda -

Craigieburn bus, new Donnybrook - Craigieburn bus, new Keysborough bus, express

bus from Eltham during Hurstbridge line disruptions, new Alexandra - Eildon

bus.  

* $6.8m on 'Bus Industry Innovation Fund' to support bus

industry "through delivering initiatives focused on improving network

efficiency, patronage, customer experience, safety and driver support."

* 100 more authorised offices, to be recruited 10 per year

over 10 years across all modes.

*  Funding for planning and business case development

of tram and active transport connections between Fishermans Bend and the

CBD.

* Last year we spent $1210m on bus services, $3899m on

train services, $957m on tram operations  and $1357m on road operations

(p323). The budget has small increases for buses and trains, a very big

increase (67%) for road operations and a small cut for tram operations.

* There is an allocation (about $56m from 2020-1) for

additional train services. Not much detail on these are given but they relate

to the Ballarat Line Upgrade, Cranbourne-Pakenham Line Upgrade and High

Capacity Metro Trains.  This will be supported by more train authorised

officers (p 100). Mobile phone charging will be available at inner Melbourne

stations (p 104).

* There is no budgeted increase in metropolitan train service km to 2019-20

(remains at 23.8 million km). Patronage is expected to grow slightly to 246.2m

trips (p 332).

* 10 more E-class trams will be purchased and 10 Z-class trams overhauled (p

115). Nothing significant for tram services with a small cut proposed in

operating budget.  Page 335 refers to the drop being due to payment

scheduling. Tram patronage is expected to rise slightly to 208 million trips

per year. Last year's service delivery target (99.2%) will be maintained, even

though actually delivery has been less.

* Metropolitan bus patronage has been and is expected to

remain static at just under 120 million trips per year. There is only a very

minor increase in service kilometres to be run. (p 326). Much stronger growth

is expected for regional bus patronage despite no increase in service

kilometres (p 327).

* Significant asset initiatives mentioned in this paper

include many level crossing removals (75 by 2025), new trains for Sunbury -

Pakenham/Cranbourne, Hurstbridge line upgrade, additional station parking,

Melbourne Airport Rail and improved security and resilience.

Salient

points from Paper 4 (State capital program)

* Page 9

has the big picture. Something like 80% of government capital investment is on

transport projects. It's way higher than health, education and justice, which

are the next three.

* Key

current projects include: level crossing removals (25 more by 2025 costing $6.6

billion), Sunbury line upgrade to support the High Capacity Metro Trains,

Cranbourne line duplication and doubling peak frequency, Hurstbridge line

duplications, 10 new E-class trams and upgrades of Zs (p 3).

* Future

projects include Suburban Rail Loop planning, Melbourne Airport Rail planning and

Western Rail plan, including electrification to Wyndham Vale and Melton (p 5).

*

Allocations for Metropolitan (rail) Network Modernisation Program improvements

as part of level crossing removals. (p 78)

Summary

Continuing on from past years, this budget contains

significant investment in capital works, but relatively little on running

services. So it's very much a status quo budget for passengers. Busy trains, trams and buses will continue to leave people behind in established areas. And tens of thousands more people each year will be living in fringe areas without even basic bus services. The only possible silver lining come from the Bus Industry Innovation Fund, 100% of which should go to reforming bus networks in areas that need it.  

Note:

Due to the budget tomorrow's Timetable Tuesday will not run. Normal

service will resume next week. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

This item was written by Peter Parker http://www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com