Who is winning The RACE (part 2)?

 
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Now that Trainorama are talking more definitely about the arrival of the GM class is there a known start date for this model so we can see if the GM or the R takes longer?
"LaidlayM"

A friend has a receipt for GMs dated 19/06/05

Sponsored advertisement

  pwatson Beginner

In the summary by "the Boys From Race" I note no prediction of an arrival date for the Auscision NSW RUB Set.
  a6et Minister for Railways

In the summary by "the Boys From Race" I note no prediction of an arrival date for the Auscision NSW RUB Set.
pwatson
Reason being, the thread is specific to Locomotives, & self propelled rather than R/S.

There was IIRC a separate thread some while back dealing with R/S
  LaidlayM Chief Commissioner

Location: Research
A friend has a receipt for GMs dated 19/06/05
Aaron
Thanks Aaron.

My R class date is June 06 so Eureka has another year unless someone has an earlier date.

Mark
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
Thanks Aaron.

My R class date is June 06 so Eureka has another year unless someone has an earlier date.

Mark
LaidlayM
Looking at AMRM the projects are about the same start date. However Traino had this as a total project S/42 and GM and you have to say they delivered on the S and 42 class before the project was delayed due to them having to find a new manufacturer. Whereas the R class project is "due next month" as it has been since c2007.

Iain
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
The RACE Officials have decided to award Southern Rail a SILVER DUGONG for the 18 months from announcement to arrival of the Xplorer/Endeavour sets.  Incidentally in the process trouncing Powerline who now may not in fact be producing one at all (it wasn't mentioned in a longish list of projects put up on their FB).

We are also on an absolute knife-edge between shattering the 2008 record of 8 new arrivals, and simply equalling it.

At the moment we have six new arrivals including a record from Auscision of three (about to be four).
Arrived:
Auscision 422 class
On Track 82 class
Auscision 73 class
Southern Rail Xplorer/Endeavour sets
Auscision Walkers railmotors
Trainorama GM class

About to arrive:
Auscision AN class
Eureka R class (well, when I say 'about', possibly 2 months)

Hopefully arriving before the end of the year (thus breaking the record):
Austrains G class
Austrains BL class
Austrains 81 class

Now extremely unlikely to arrive this year (but still claimed so by the producers):
Trainorama 48 class
Trainorama 830 class
Eureka 40 class
Auscision GT46C-ACe

Of course, we could still get a surprise release, which would of course guarantee that the record will be broken.

Regards all,

Toby
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
The Apocryphal Nature of Things
Being something of a political observer, (for various reasons), it has been more than interesting to observe the ever increasing tendency of political statements to be wildly divergent from the reality.  Rather than get involved in specific examples, as everyone has their own view of these things, I note this merely to highlight that it is apparently not solely the prerogative of politicians to make apocryphal statements.

Or to put it another way, the RACE has observed that very few things are said that later turn out to be true. Most particularly in relation to when a model is going to show up for customers.  Of course this is almost never a deliberate thing, as it often can be with our politicians!

The RACE Book of Records
Well of course last year we broke the record.  There were indeed nine new railcar or locomotive models that arrived, exceeding the previous record of 2008, when eight new models were released for the HO scale Australian outline RTR market.
We saw the arrival of two very long-awaited models, the Eureka R class and the Trainorama GM's.  It should be noted that if not for a delay in their factories, the record would not have been broken at all.  The Auscision 422 & 73 class were expected in 2012 and nearly made it ( There were only two new models released in 2012).  However even with that delay it wasn't a certainty that the record would be broken.  But with the somewhat unheralded arrival of Bergs' U-boats in October, it was officially busted, albeit only by one.  It is worth noting that historically there are not usually that many new models released.  The previous record of eight was twice as many new models than had ever been released in a single year previously. Until last year we had not even come close since, the next best being five in 2009.
So what are our prospects this year? Very hard to determine. At the moment we are predicting a record breaking twelve new releases.  But unfortunately there are no guarantees that any of these models predicted to arrive will actually arrive this year. Why? Because out of all the Auscision, Bendigo, Southern Rail & Trainorama releases slated to arrive, we have seen NONE of the painted samples.  The Auscision 422's painted samples first appeared some 14 months before the models actually arrived. This doesn't mean that all models will take this long - but it does tell us that the odds of them turning up within six months of painted samples appearing are small indeed.
Thus we can say that the record could be totally blown away this year. But then again maybe not. If not, then it seems very likely that next year will be huge. So hold on to your butts!

I should note as well there seems to be some confusion as to just exactly what is happening with Austrains' huge 81/G/BL project. A handful were flown in to the Corio exhibition in late January, but no more seem to have arrived since.  We currently expect them almost any day now, but it is unclear.

Note too the addition of a new player in the Australian market, but a pretty old and established international player; Roco. A barrage of well-aimed emails and faceplant comments is to be recommended if people want to get some MZ class models produced.
We have also added the Auscision 43 class and the 421 class. We are certain that they will be doing both.


DUGONGS AWARDED:
Silver: Southern Rail for initial run of U-boats (just over 12 months from announcement to arrival)
Silver: Southern Rail for Xplorer/Endeavours (approx 18 months from announcement to arrival)
Bronze: Trainorama for 4499 'Ghost' livery model (arrived approx 1 month before estimated - bronze as was re-run)

Arrivals Last year (2013):
Southern Rail NSW U-boats (re-run)
Auscision NSW 422 class
On Track NSW 82 class
Auscision NSW 73 class
Southern Rail NSW Xplorer/Endeavour railcars (Silver Dugong)
Auscision Vic Walkers 280HP
Trainorama SA GM class
Bendigo Vic T class (re-run)
Auscision SA AN class
Minimodels NSW U-boats
Eureka Vic R class

Arrivals so far (2014):
Austrains Vic G class (some, anyway)
Haskell Vic Na class (On30, a special mention, as if it had been an HO scale model, it would have been awarded a Gold Dugong)


2014
March:
Austrains SA BL class
Austrains NSW 81 class
Austrains NSW 442 class (re-run)
Austrains SA 700 class (re-run)

April:
You've got to be joking

May:
No.

June:
Yeah... nope.

July:
....and zip.

August:
Bendigo Rail Vic P class
Austrains NR class (re-run w/NR18 +others)

September:
Auscision GT46C-ACe (LDP, TT, WH, GWA classes)
Powerline NSW 81 class –re-run, new mechanism (a total guess)
Powerline Vic G class –re-run, new mechanism
Powerline SA BL class –re-run, new mechanism
Southern Rail Vic V/Locity sets
Roco Vic F class

October:
Trainorama NSW 48 class
Eureka NSW 620/720 railcars (re-run)

November:
Powerline NSW 48 class (re-run, candy,other colours?)
Auscision NSW 46 class

December:
Auscision C43/C44ACi (AC, 93, 93, 6000, 6020, ACB, XRN, CF, GWU, CEY, 5020 classes!!)
Trainorama SA 830 class
Eureka NSW 40 class - optimism fading fast on this arriving this year

2015
Early:
Austrains Vic T class (re-run)
Eureka NSW D50 class
Southern Rail QLD 2300 class
Southern Rail WA DFZ class
Trainorama GM class (re-run incl SSR colours)
Mid:
Auscision NSW Tangara sets
Bendigo Rail Vic T class series I (re-run, later colour schemes)
TrainOrama NSW 47 class (re-run)
Trainorama NSW 49 class (re-run)
Eureka Vic K class
Eureka NSW C38 class (re-run)
Austrains NSW Z20 class
Railmotor Models SCT class
Late:
Auscision NSW XPT set
Auscision NSW 45 class
Auscision NSW 86 class
Auscision Vic L class electric
Southern Rail QLD 2000 class railmotors

2016
Auscision NSW V set
Auscision NSW 421 class
Auscision NSW 43 class
Eureka NSW D59 class
Eureka NSW D53 class
Eureka NSW DEB set
TrainOrama NSW 45 class –will they still happen?
TrainOrama SA 600 class –possibly not
TrainOrama WA L class –and no news
TrainOrama NSW 82 class –very doubtful that these will happen
Minimodels NSW Tangara sets -another model that may not happen

2017 and BEYOND
Auscision CFCLA GL class
Railmotor CSR/BK class
Eureka NSW Silver City Comet
Eureka SMR 10 class
Eureka NSW D55 class
Eureka NSW 43 class (almost certainly not happening, rumoured to be cancelled already)
Eureka VR N class
Eureka SAR 750 class
Eureka NSW C30 class
Eureka NSW D57 class
Eureka NSW D58 class
________________________________________________

Notes:
Well I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings. Isn't that a strange phrase when you re-read it? Anyway, just an odd thought that occurred to me.
Looking at Eureka's progress over the last couple of years I'm afraid I have no more optimism than I did previously.  They have had pretty much completed tooling samples of the D50, 40 & K classes now for some time.  But those models are still not going to appear until the end of the year according to Eureka's latest update.  Their factory situation has changed again also, whether this will change the pattern of delays is less clear.  The huge list of Eureka's announcements is backing up and their latest newsletter tells us that the next edition will herald their next Victorian loco. Now there is no way that this loco will be here within two years.  I would have thought it would be better to just leave that for a while.  Having said that, Eureka tells me that they have plenty of people asking 'whats next?'.  Thats fair enough I guess.  But looking at the 2017 and beyond list, its hard not to notice that most of those items are Eureka.  And they have been for some time in our ongoing RACE.
We advised that it would be better to wait, as he really doesn't need MORE stuff piled up on the bottom of the list.  Eureka's view of official announcements is somewhat different to ours, however, so all we can do is watch with interest.

And More Rampaging Optimism
Auscision is almost no less guilty than Eureka of rampaging optimism.  With their now gargantuan (you so rarely get to use that in a sentence) program, they are under pressure to deliver.  Unfortunately they are still telling us that the modern locos and the electrics are due mid year. Now technically mid-year could be anytime from May to August - but even August is only 5 months away. The big problem with that, is that we haven't seen any painted samples (and neither have Auscision, based on the lack of them at Sandown). The arrival of painted samples is a great sign of progress in the model arriving (even Eureka's D50 & 40 class have painted samples available). But it can easily be 12 months from those painted samples to the model actually arriving, and these days it often is (Southern Rail appear to be the biggest exception to this rule).  So consequently I've moved a couple of the Auscision things to next year and put the others back to later in the year.

More soon,
The boys from The RACE.
  a6et Minister for Railways

Toby

As always well thought through.

People are always asking Eureka "what's next?"  maybe not in regard to models though!!Embarassed


I am very much of the view that all the importers should no longer be announcing their new u boot models until they are much closer to the shores, and certainly not in the planning stages, perhaps they may be thinking that early announcements will forestall any opposition models & have a right to claim that as their own. While there may be some truth in it I think its a bit misguided in these days, as like many others I have become very much the sceptic in what's going on.

In fact the move to claiming a model may in too early an announcement may end up backfiring especially when the order forms come out with a predictable EB incentive, with others moving into the scene as others have pulled out of it, as less & less modellers are prepared to be part of these schemes.  The idea of a deposit only with reduced price & full amount being required before they arrive on shore is a better option but still tying up money for how long.

Several modellers I know besides myself are basically sticking money away for future models, some in banks & some in bags in order to get models of interest.
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
Toby,

Interesting as always. I see you have predicted the TrainOrama 48 class for delivery in October this year. Do you have any inside information that the rest of us are unaware of that leads to that optimism?

Best regards,
John

Sorry I should have not written "the rest of us".  Replace said words with "I", and "are" with "am".
  Roachie Chief Commissioner

Location: Kadina SA (formerly NSW)
Toby,

Interesting as always. I see you have predicted the TrainOrama 48 class for delivery in October this year. Do you have any inside information that the rest of us are unaware of that leads to that optimism?

Best regards,
John

Sorry I should have not written "the rest of us". Replace said words with "I", and "are" with "am".
John_Bushell

John,
I think it was quite appropriate for you to say: "that the rest of us are unaware of that leads to that optimism?" I'd be surprised if the count wasn't in the hundreds of modelers (at the very least).


Roachie
  Albert Chief Commissioner

Toby,

Interesting as always. I see you have predicted the TrainOrama 48 class for delivery in October this year. Do you have any inside information that the rest of us are unaware of that leads to that optimism?

Best regards,
John

Sorry I should have not written "the rest of us". Replace said words with "I", and "are" with "am".
John_Bushell

Current issue of AMRM
  a6et Minister for Railways

Current issue of AMRM
Albert

Given also that there are 11 models including rerun items shown in the Eureka main ad, will be interesting to see what does eventuate.
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
Current issue of AMRM
Albert

Thanks Albert, it has not reached Brisbane yet.  At least not my place.

Best regards,
John
  LaidlayM Chief Commissioner

Location: Research
Thanks Albert, it has not reached Brisbane yet. At least not my place.

Best regards,
John
John_Bushell

Maybe "current issue" is not a clear term and it should be defined by month.

Mark
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
Well to follow up from Mark and to provide even more clarity - the year should be mentioned.

Iain
  kingfisher Chief Train Controller

Well to follow up from Mark and to provide even more clarity - the year should be mentioned.

Iain
Iain

The Issue Number will suffice, in this case Issue 305.
  Albert Chief Commissioner

Apologies for not being more specific. Being an adult, I'm not accustom to being spoon fed any more.Laughing
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Toby,

Interesting as always. I see you have predicted the TrainOrama 48 class for delivery in October this year. Do you have any inside information that the I am unaware of that leads to that optimism?

Best regards,
John
John_Bushell

Hi John,
It was in fact based on their update from mid-Feb. It is indeed a bit of a case of optimism, however I think it is still possible - after all it is their priority project and they are trying to get it finished before they worry too much about other stuff.

I have split the two loco types because in the interests of getting some of them to customers, plus given they have a small factory, the production run could easily end up being done in two parts.  This is based on other precedents, but that doesn't mean it will happen of course.

Interestingly, in conversation with another producer who shall not be named, I was given a great idea for the next edition of the RACE - they said that they will 'neither confirm nor deny' that they are going to be producing a particular model!  A fabulous line that was of course stolen from the US Navy regarding the oft speculated presence or lack thereof of nuclear weapons on their warships.
So we shall have a good chat about Mutually Assured Destruction, Detente and of course the debate over the Nukes, or Nookellar Weapons as Dubya would have called them, and how this relates to the Australian Model Railway industry.
And no, I'm not going to tell you what the Nuclear Model might or might not be. And like the US Navy, there's no clues hidden in any of that, so stop thinking there is!

Regards,

Toby
  Gremlin Assistant Commissioner

I suppose you could always add the Crowd Funded possibility of an N scale AD60 to the RACE... Smile
  ModelOkits Station Staff

Does a DJH O Gauge AD60 Garratt Kit announced July 2013 with Expected arrival March 2014 quality for The Race?

The kits will leave the UK on 31/3/14 and be available second week of April 2014 upon payment in full.

We have delivered as announced and within 9 months of starting the project.
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Does a DJH O Gauge AD60 Garratt Kit announced July 2013 with Expected arrival March 2014 quality for The Race?

The kits will leave the UK on 31/3/14 and be available second week of April 2014 upon payment in full.

We have delivered as announced and within 9 months of starting the project.
ModelOkits

I'm sorry, no.
I have only been tracking HO scale injection moulded plastic RTR. Much as I am impressed by what has been achieved by you (Model O Kits) & DJH.  I would have no hope of tracking kits releases, never mind another scale.
I considered including the On30 releases but I missed the Ixion Models releases so it would have been unfair to then say that the Haskell Model had done well.
The reality is that the RACE was created for the HO RTR scene to help people make sense of when things may actually arrive (not that we get it right that often, but things are almost always later than we predict).
For the O scale modellers there isn't nearly as much coming out, therefore they probably don't need that much help sorting out the chaos.

Kind regards,

Toby
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
So in the latest Austrains newsletter the confusion over what's going on with the G/BL/81 project is at last clear, or at least clearer.
Clearly most of these models will be arriving in May and probably some in June, some people may not even get theirs until July (probably the RACE Officials, who ordered candy, of course!), given what seems to be a diabolical load of problems for Austrains in China at the moment.

The Z20 was pushed back to next year which for us translates to 2016 at the very earliest.

Also no, we're not tracking N scale so we won't be tracking the kickstarter AD60 in N scale. But we wish it well.  Garratts are better, after all.

Regards all
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
So in the latest Austrains newsletter the confusion over what's going on with the G/BL/81 project is at last clear, or at least clearer.
Clearly most of these models will be arriving in May and probably some in June, some people may not even get theirs until July (probably the RACE Officials, who ordered candy, of course!), given what seems to be a diabolical load of problems for Austrains in China at the moment.

The Z20 was pushed back to next year which for us translates to 2016 at the very earliest.

Also no, we're not tracking N scale so we won't be tracking the kickstarter AD60 in N scale. But we wish it well. Garratts are better, after all.

Regards all
DQ2004

Well I think its all not so bad Smile  I always expect the unexpected. The next issue of AMRM is only two months away Ha Ha!
Cheers
Rod
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
And just for kicks, lets have another look at what's missing, ie. what hasn't been announced by anyone (diesels only, the steam list is simply too big);

The Modern Image Group (original owners named)
CM class CFCLA (16*) [*not all yet in service]
1200 class NREC (3 in service)
BRM class Consolidated Rail Leasing (2)
1100 class Qube (8 )
VL class CFCLA (8 )
MZ class LVRF (8 )
28 class QR National (4) [3 still on standard gauge, 47 on narrow gauge]
RL class CFCLA (9)
5000 class QR National (12)
XR class Freight Australia (6)
FQ class FreightLink (4)
423 class Interail (6)
V class Freight Australia (1)
Q class Westrail (19)
90 class FreightCorp (35)
Railcars
Hunter railcar CityRail (7)
Sprinter railcar V/Line (22)
Prospector railcars TransWa (4)

70's-80's Group
N/Na class Westrail (8 )
AL class Australian National (7)
K class WAGR (6)
H class WAGR (5)
J class WAGR (5)
DRC railcar VR (4)
1200 class railcar NSWGR (10)
Bluebird railcars SAR (21)
Prospector railcars WAGR (5)

Early Diesels Group
41 class NSWGR (10)
70 class NSWGR (10)
72 class NSWGR (1)
79 class NSWGR (4)
X class NSWGR (rail tractors)
RM38 railcar NSWGR
W class VR (27)
102hp Walker railcar VR (13)
153hp Walker railcar VR (16)
DERM railcar VR (10)
800 class SAR (10)
500 class SAR (34)
900 class SAR (10)

Electrics Group
85 class NSWGR (10)
45/71 class NSWGR (1)
S set NSWGR
K set NSWGR
Millenium set CityRail
Oscar set CityRail
E class VR (10)
Tait set VR
Harris set VR
Hitachi set VR
Comeng set VicRail
Xtrapolis set Connex
Siemens set M-Train

Austrains BASIX items:
C class VR (10)
442 class NSWGR (40)
700 class SAR (6)
80 class NSWGR (50)

NOTES:
I've tried to include most of the railcars, but obviously not some of the early VR ones.
Note how many of these locos, particularly the modern group, are very small class numbers. The Australian market has not yet reached the point that the British market has, where unique or small numbered locomotives are highly desired, mostly because they were not commonplace. Perhaps that will change one day.

Yes Ozrail have done the SAR 500 & 900 class locomotives. The 900 was not a 'mass produced model by any stretch of the imagination and the 500 is not ready to run (many parts must be fitted by the purchaser). Therefore I have not included them.

Similarly the WAGR L class is not listed as it was previously announced by Trainorama many years ago. We have no clue if they are still going to do this loco, or if they are going to do the 45/600's which were announced at the same time. Given the change of ownership its quite possible that Trainorama won't do them - but they have not yet confirmed one way or another. Kind of understandable given that they have been beaten to the punch on so much of their previously announced program.

Most likely?
Well if you'd asked me last year what was more likely, a VR L class electric or an ANR AL, I would have picked the AL for sure. Yet it was the L that was announced and the AL remains a well travelled class yet ignored by the producers. Well, as far as we know.
I'm also pretty confident that someone will do the NSW 41 & 70 classes. I'm pretty sure it won't be Austrains though; he didn't think the 73 class was a goer, he's even less likely to think the other two are. I think the Victorian Sprinters are pretty likely as are the GT46C's (the V, Q & FQ's). The Victorian railcars I did think were fairly likely, although I can't help but notice that the Auscision 280hp Walkers have not sold out as yet. So perhaps not.

I've also listed the Austrains basix models because eventually someone is going to re-do them with the full detail etc. Perhaps not in the next five years but who knows? Certainly the 421 is on the way, so already one of Austrains' earlier models is being redone by someone else. Its worth remembering too that not all of the colour schemes of any of the basix models are available.

Least Likely?
Well that would have to be the NSWGR 72 class prototype shunter that was a bit of a flop in real life. Its chances of being done RTR are about as close to the chance I have of becoming the leading goal-scorer in the next World Cup! There are plenty of others that are pretty slim odds too, of course The biggest difficulty some of these models have is their small number and in many cases (but certainly not all) restricted area of use. The other difficulty is the smaller market that some of these models belong too, in particular the SA and WA markets. For those that think 'oh but I know heaps of people that model SAR', the fact is that the Queensland market, once it really takes off, will draw ahead, and stay ahead, of both the SA & WA outline markets.
The reason is simple; there are more people living in Queensland than in both SA & WA combined.

Electrics
The announcement of the Victorian L class electric was a bit of a shock (as it were), and effectively confirmed that there is a potential market for more Victorian electric sets to come. Its quite possible that Auscision will be using the sales of the L to gauge this potential. It is a strange thing, as these groups are a kind of market within a market - clearly not everyone who models VR will buy an L, just as many people who model NSW will not buy any electrics. The advantage of the NSW market was always that it is big enough to support mini-groups within it. Whether the Victorian market is big enough, is harder to tell. Although at this stage it looks as though it may be.

As always, my advice to those who want the above things is to email the producers and tell them what you want. They aren't mind readers!

Regards all,
Toby
  a6et Minister for Railways

NSW Railcars.  RM38 Creamy Kate.  Kits were/are? available.

Paybus?

X100 & X200

7201 Was always only a test bed for what eventually became the 73cl, while not an overly great success on general trip working it actually found its place as a successful shunting engine on the old Balmain coal loader, taking the place of a standard goods engine on the actual unloading #1 Balmain shift, like many other experimental items it had its quirky nature but as the amount of drivers who were qualified for it, got used to it, it did a good job, my regular mate at the time was one of them & never had issues with it.

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