$200b fast rail is 'potential trainwreck'

 

News article: $200b fast rail is 'potential trainwreck'

Transport experts have dismissed the latest plan to build a fast rail system between Melbourne and Sydney as a potential "financial trainwreck" that fails the economics test because of high costs.

  simstrain Chief Commissioner

The deal is already done the project will get underway.
bevans

Just because someone says the deal is done, doesn't mean it is done. Until construction starts and even then a project can be canned or cut back. Nothing is done.

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  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Pity that we cannot generate similar enthusiasm for something realistic and needed like the Inland Freight Line from Melbourne to Brisbane.........Rolling Eyes
  eddyb Chief Train Controller


I realise I bang on a bit too much but twenty years ago I built this small tunnel machine that was a failure and nearly cost me everything including my marriage but now I know unless you get many people interested with sufficient capital one person goes nowhere.

Then I would have thought that you would have the brain to cease beating this horse that was stillborn.

Seriously; you've been going at this for years, it's yet to happen. Parrahub - 200kph subways, all of it - they're all pipe dreams.

Unless you can actually gain capital and build/run it privately, it'll never happen. The Government have shown no interest in it.
s3_gunzel
It took them ten years to get permission to climb the bridge so regulation is the biggest problem with new ideas in Australia but maybe I will keep on until I die or it happens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BridgeClimb_Sydney

By the way I propose 800kph shuttles that require a dead straight tunnel not just your little HSR with all their problems.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1631/jzus.A1400338
  s3_gunzel Not a gunzel developer

Location: Western Sydney, AU

By the way I propose 800kph shuttles that require a dead straight tunnel not just your little HSR with all their problems.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1631/jzus.A1400338
"eddyb"


And your proposal is... where? The website doesn't count. Show us a word document or something.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Then I would have thought that you would have the brain to cease beating this horse that was stillborn.

Seriously; you've been going at this for years, it's yet to happen. Parrahub - 200kph subways, all of it - they're all pipe dreams.

Unless you can actually gain capital and build/run it privately, it'll never happen. The Government have shown no interest in it.
s3_gunzel
And that would be why he is talking about firing off glib emails (does talking about sending them = actually sending them?) to be circular filed by low-level staffers of randomly selected politicians rather than doing something serious.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

By the way I propose 800kph shuttles that require a dead straight tunnel not just your little HSR with all their problems.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1631/jzus.A1400338
eddyb

And your proposal is... where? The website doesn't count. Show us a word document or something.
s3_gunzel
While a Word document would be a minor upgrade over a slapdash website, doing anything serious in Word these days is a key indicator of unprofessionalism.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
Off all the HSR proposals and threads that have graced this forum over the years, this is the most far out of them all. I wonder how long before this fantasy finds itself in the Armchair Operators area - which I think is where it belongs - a fantasy for the so called backers.
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dalby Qld
While a Word document would be a minor upgrade over a slapdash website, doing anything serious in Word these days is a key indicator of unprofessionalism.
justapassenger


Therefore there are hundreds, (thousands?, millions?) of very unprofessional individuals, businesses, government departments etc out there. What would you use to write a serious business document?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I cannot believe anyone is treating this seriously!
  Lad_Porter Chief Commissioner

Location: Yarra Glen
Winged porcine creatures, probably pink, will be the first passengers.

I was watching an old episode of "Utopia" the other day, the one where a HSR was being discussed.  The know-it-all Government official couldn't tell the difference between a  HSR and an inland freight route, and was constantly mixing his metaphors.  A classic episode.
  s3_gunzel Not a gunzel developer

Location: Western Sydney, AU

While a Word document would be a minor upgrade over a slapdash website, doing anything serious in Word these days is a key indicator of unprofessionalism.
"justapassenger"


As ParraHub is not an operating business, I think we can skip over the "professionalism" details in this case. I just want something easy to read that outlines everything.

That said; EddyB should have a business plan drawn up by now, given he's been rabbiting on about this for at least three years, and of course, most businesses use Word for this.
  simstrain Chief Commissioner

Pity that we cannot generate similar enthusiasm for something realistic and needed like the Inland Freight Line from Melbourne to Brisbane.........Rolling Eyes
YM-Mundrabilla

Yes a much better usage of money that would enable our regional producers to become more efficient and cost effective. All passenger rail services lose money in Australia and the only place it makes some money is in the freight sector.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
This new railway will now go ahead immediately with all trains being fuelled with:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/thanks-stunning-breakthrough-chemical-engineering-kirti-mehta

No, I don't get it either.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Seems to fit nicely with the whole concept of this railway.
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

Pity that we cannot generate similar enthusiasm for something realistic and needed like the Inland Freight Line from Melbourne to Brisbane.........Rolling Eyes

Yes a much better usage of money that would enable our regional producers to become more efficient and cost effective. All passenger rail services lose money in Australia and the only place it makes some money is in the freight sector.
simstrain
As we print our own money we are only constrained by the number of willing and able workers to prevent inflation so if kids are allowed to leave school at 15, older people have incentive to work past retirement age and more people are allowed in the country who integrate then we could build a new inland rail plus a Sydney/Melbourne Supertrain without inflation.


Regarding the inland rail as it would be built on a better alignment with better subgrade and higher bridges it could be done and make a profit where a lot of old rail is subsidised now.


Regarding the Supertrain it may cost $32b for the tunnels but if it replaces the 5m plane trips @ $100 p/a that is $500m per year which is more than the $320m per year 1% interest.


I was told the other day Aussies are lazy and I have seen a job advertised for a station attendant that many people felt it was below them but I also know many people doing it tough who would love a real job so maybe just do a bit of quantitative  easing and check it does not lead to inflation.


As far as losing our AAA rating the quicker it goes the better as then our dollar will drop and real jobs will come but we must not be greedy.
  Nightfire Minister for Railways

Location: Gippsland
Australia losing our AAA credit rating would have a crippling effect across the economy !


Interest payments would rise right across the board, Governments (all levels, Commonwealth the greatest)  would have to devote more of their annual budget to Interest payments on borrowed credit, and less on general spending, If they continue to spend more than they earn things will just get wore !
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

Australia losing our AAA credit rating would have a crippling effect across the economy !


Interest payments would rise right across the board, Governments (all levels, Commonwealth the greatest)  would have to devote more of their annual budget to Interest payments on borrowed credit, and less on general spending, If they continue to spend more than they earn things will just get wore !
Nightfire
Banks would hate it as they are getting cheap international money now and can make heaps lending it out to negative housing investors who only push up the price of houses.

People who cannot get a real job would love to see the dollar drop so they could get a job.

It all depends on if politicians can convince the public it is essential to keep it.

Anyway ratings agencies lost credibility after the GFC
  simstrain Chief Commissioner

Pity that we cannot generate similar enthusiasm for something realistic and needed like the Inland Freight Line from Melbourne to Brisbane.........Rolling Eyes

Yes a much better usage of money that would enable our regional producers to become more efficient and cost effective. All passenger rail services lose money in Australia and the only place it makes some money is in the freight sector.
As we print our own money we are only constrained by the number of willing and able workers to prevent inflation so if kids are allowed to leave school at 15, older people have incentive to work past retirement age and more people are allowed in the country who integrate then we could build a new inland rail plus a Sydney/Melbourne Supertrain without inflation.


Regarding the inland rail as it would be built on a better alignment with better subgrade and higher bridges it could be done and make a profit where a lot of old rail is subsidised now.


Regarding the Supertrain it may cost $32b for the tunnels but if it replaces the 5m plane trips @ $100 p/a that is $500m per year which is more than the $320m per year 1% interest.


I was told the other day Aussies are lazy and I have seen a job advertised for a station attendant that many people felt it was below them but I also know many people doing it tough who would love a real job so maybe just do a bit of quantitative  easing and check it does not lead to inflation.


As far as losing our AAA rating the quicker it goes the better as then our dollar will drop and real jobs will come but we must not be greedy.
eddyb

Think more like $320 billion for tunnels between Sydney and Melbourne and why should a train replace the plane trip which is already available, profitable and not costing the tax payer in subsidies. $32 billion wouldn't even cover the cost of tunnelling from Central to the outskirts of Sydney.
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

Pity that we cannot generate similar enthusiasm for something realistic and needed like the Inland Freight Line from Melbourne to Brisbane.........Rolling Eyes

Yes a much better usage of money that would enable our regional producers to become more efficient and cost effective. All passenger rail services lose money in Australia and the only place it makes some money is in the freight sector.
As we print our own money we are only constrained by the number of willing and able workers to prevent inflation so if kids are allowed to leave school at 15, older people have incentive to work past retirement age and more people are allowed in the country who integrate then we could build a new inland rail plus a Sydney/Melbourne Supertrain without inflation.


Regarding the inland rail as it would be built on a better alignment with better subgrade and higher bridges it could be done and make a profit where a lot of old rail is subsidised now.


Regarding the Supertrain it may cost $32b for the tunnels but if it replaces the 5m plane trips @ $100 p/a that is $500m per year which is more than the $320m per year 1% interest.


I was told the other day Aussies are lazy and I have seen a job advertised for a station attendant that many people felt it was below them but I also know many people doing it tough who would love a real job so maybe just do a bit of quantitative  easing and check it does not lead to inflation.


As far as losing our AAA rating the quicker it goes the better as then our dollar will drop and real jobs will come but we must not be greedy.

Think more like $320 billion for tunnels between Sydney and Melbourne and why should a train replace the plane trip which is already available, profitable and not costing the tax payer in subsidies. $32 billion wouldn't even cover the cost of tunnelling from Central to the outskirts of Sydney.
simstrain
It states here that the 30 kilometres of tunnels were done for $1.15b or $38,333,333 per kilometre   http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/tunnelling-contract-north-west-rail-link so a single tunnel Sydney to Melbourne would not be much more than the $32b.


It is quite possible there may be a fuel increase in ten years that would double the cost of planes and a superfast train enabling Albury and Canberra to grow to 1,000,000 must get a bit of value capture and decentralise a bit.


You are used to governments losing money on old technology but here they may even make a profit.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
It states here that the 30 kilometres of tunnels were done for $1.15b or $38,333,333 per kilometre   http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/tunnelling-contract-north-west-rail-link so a single tunnel Sydney to Melbourne would not be much more than the $32b.


It is quite possible there may be a fuel increase in ten years that would double the cost of planes and a superfast train enabling Albury and Canberra to grow to 1,000,000 must get a bit of value capture and decentralise a bit.


You are used to governments losing money on old technology but here they may even make a profit.
eddyb

The project is worth over $6B, you cannot tell me that the rest is costing over $4.5B, otherwise they would keep tunneling and build the whole thing underground.

The project cost for the CRR in Brisbane, which is near 100% a tunnel is over $5B

The Melbourne Metro project is around $10B and this is mostly a tunnel.

No HSR makes a profit unless conditions are geared to enable them to do so, such as fares and fewer other alternatives.

Against the rising cost of fuel (considering now there is a glut and expected to be so for a few more years), you have rapidly decreasing fuel consumption for both planes and road based vehicles. I cannot remember the actual number but the next greensheet version of the B777 is 20% less fuel consumption and each mid life make over of the major planes is typically a 10% reduction.
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

It states here that the 30 kilometres of tunnels were done for $1.15b or $38,333,333 per kilometre   http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/tunnelling-contract-north-west-rail-link so a single tunnel Sydney to Melbourne would not be much more than the $32b.


It is quite possible there may be a fuel increase in ten years that would double the cost of planes and a superfast train enabling Albury and Canberra to grow to 1,000,000 must get a bit of value capture and decentralise a bit.


You are used to governments losing money on old technology but here they may even make a profit.

The project is worth over $6B, you cannot tell me that the rest is costing over $4.5B, otherwise they would keep tunneling and build the whole thing underground.

The project cost for the CRR in Brisbane, which is near 100% a tunnel is over $5B

The Melbourne Metro project is around $10B and this is mostly a tunnel.

No HSR makes a profit unless conditions are geared to enable them to do so, such as fares and fewer other alternatives.

Against the rising cost of fuel (considering now there is a glut and expected to be so for a few more years), you have rapidly decreasing fuel consumption for both planes and road based vehicles. I cannot remember the actual number but the next greensheet version of the B777 is 20% less fuel consumption and each mid life make over of the major planes is typically a 10% reduction.
RTT_Rules
The skytrain is needed because it floods there.


Brisbane is only half tunnel.


Melbourne is spending $1.5b on property acquisitions and is going through the middle of town which is a bit tricky especially as they want to keep it near the surface.


HSR may not but I believe a supertrain shuttle would return a profit.


Fuel glut yeah, I heard that the mining boom was going to go on forever ha ha.
  BDA Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney
Gee wissy , going to Melbourne in a tube train - how exciting !
How about spending 5 Billion improving the above ground alignment with worlds best practise heavy perway and loading guage standards . When you can run 40 odd tonne axle loads at 80km/h in WA what do you reckon you could safely get XPT/Tilt Train type axle loads up to , 200 clicks + if the alignments allowed it I'd reckon .
Inter regional centers customers won't be on the tin can for that many hours but freight gets a virtual Hume Railway to run on .
Anyone going intercapital isn't going to beat the bird anyway so if they choose a slower mode tough .
If you want to talk economics then land transport deserves a mention too , more efficient land transport gives something to our economy .
  simstrain Chief Commissioner

No passenger rail system in Australia has ever returned a profit and that $1.15 billion is just the cost of building the tunnels and not for the stations, track, safety and electrical systems that go with completion of the project. Not only that but the north west tunnels were built in ideal rock and only 1 little creek. Tunneling anywhere south of Sydney will be much more trickier because of all the dams, gullys and coal mines. The land in the southern highlands is actually significantly undermined and significant subsidence occurs in the area. Not exactly the nicest place to be running a 300km/h train.

Planes are getting more efficient and so are cars. In fact cars are already starting to get rid of the need for fuel and new technology should make even old cars more efficient very soon as there are new spark plug replacements coming that can make all petrol powered cars much more efficient.
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

Gee wissy , going to Melbourne in a tube train - how exciting !
How about spending 5 Billion improving the above ground alignment with worlds best practise heavy perway and loading guage standards . When you can run 40 odd tonne axle loads at 80km/h in WA what do you reckon you could safely get XPT/Tilt Train type axle loads up to , 200 clicks + if the alignments allowed it I'd reckon .
Inter regional centers customers won't be on the tin can for that many hours but freight gets a virtual Hume Railway to run on .
Anyone going intercapital isn't going to beat the bird anyway so if they choose a slower mode tough .
If you want to talk economics then land transport deserves a mention too , more efficient land transport gives something to our economy .
BDA
You covered a few points there so here are my opinions.


People in a superfast train would just read the paper or go to sleep like most regular train passengers do now anyway.


Yes trucks must not be ignored as I am sure there will be A doubles or triples or even driverless trucks on big roads like the Hume and they may even make the best conventional rail unprofitable.


My problem with fast tilt trains are they are too slow to compete with planes and too fast for grade crossings.


Regarding worlds best practice it is really horses for courses and anyway why can't we be better than worlds best practice in some things.


Nothing ventured nothing gained.
  eddyb Chief Train Controller

No passenger rail system in Australia has ever returned a profit and that $1.15 billion is just the cost of building the tunnels and not for the stations, track, safety and electrical systems that go with completion of the project. Not only that but the north west tunnels were built in ideal rock and only 1 little creek. Tunneling anywhere south of Sydney will be much more trickier because of all the dams, gullys and coal mines. The land in the southern highlands is actually significantly undermined and significant subsidence occurs in the area. Not exactly the nicest place to be running a 300km/h train.

Planes are getting more efficient and so are cars. In fact cars are already starting to get rid of the need for fuel and new technology should make even old cars more efficient very soon as there are new spark plug replacements coming that can make all petrol powered cars much more efficient.
simstrain
Perhaps if we develop the superfast train then what it would save on construction and running cost may make a profit.


With only four terminating stations you may add a couple of billion on for that if you wish.


I used to work at Douglas park 500m below ground and 300m below sea level and it would not be too hard to drive below any coal workings  from Parramatta if need be.


Most problems with tunnelling are  when you are close to the surface with creeks, water table, soft ground or infrastructure.


Some people may freak out but I can assure you it would be no more scary to some than in a plane that may fall out the sky.


I cannot see cars going 800kph

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