Yes I did read your Ps but you said you are doing a rough estimate of financial outcome of production run.
Your basic assumptions in my opinion any simply wrong.
You say you have talked to a manufacturer well so have I and they talk about lots of other costs going into producing a model that you wouldn't think about unless you ask them. Like set up costs in factory, paint masks, packaging, design and drawings... the list goes on.
Any basic production costing for anything has to include materials and tooling to get a very rough unit cost and does not include as you say all the other expenses in a business.
You cant say it cost them $100 per loco for production as a very rough estimate. Its much higher than that.
So lets say 5000 locos with 300K tooling and $100 materials/labour per loco ends up at $160 per loco before all the other costs.
Very rough Minimum cost to Auscision 800k not including sound decoders either. Tooling has to be included as there may never be a re run.
Potential value = Container of 5000 locos at $220 = 1.1 mil for container worst case scenario
Say 4000 pre sold at $220, 500 pre sold at $295 and leaves 500 at $335 of which some go wholesale to shops.
That ends up at just under 1.2 mil potential value in container.
If you look at FB post photo inside container they are all the same box just more layers on back pallets. Also look at photo of pallets outside adjacent to container to see different heights,same boxes just more layers.