The End of the Internal Combustion Engine is Nigh

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2020 23:08
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Finally I am at a real computer where I can do quotes...

RTT, torque in an electric motor is proportional to current, there is no relation to voltage.


To make a battery for more torque you need bigger cells, not more cells (higher voltage). This is why cars that need a higher CCA battery get physically larger, but not higher in voltage.

Hi Aaron,
Not sure what you are replying too?
RTT_Rules
You, above, where you wrote something like ‘higher voltage units like cordless drills have more torque’ - that is not actually true. Torque is proportional to current.

The increased torque you see in new tools with higher voltages (the higher voltage is basically a marketing ploy) comes from them generally being ‘brushless’ which means that massive currents can be flown into the windings.
Mmm, not this year, you must have found an old post.

Point taken though.
RTT_Rules


Amp.hours (Ah, not aH) mean nothing on their own.

Watt.hours (Wh) are actually what you should be looking for, because you don't need to interpret it by checking on the voltage.

In the case of both of my mowers, they are 36V (18V*2) setups, so the batteries are directly comparable by checking the Ah.  The Wh are not listed anywhere so to compare between different voltage systems you'll have to break out google. Smile
EDIT: The bloke next door has a single-battery mower of some specification and it is a complete POS and can only cut about 50m2 of grass at a time, so I assume the battery capacity isn't great no matter what voltage it's running at.
There's probably a reason that manufacturers use the voltage as the headline marketing tactic... : Wink
The higher voltage units, like cordless drills tend to have more torque, but also it enables smaller wires and connectors and faster charging is their main benefit. Note some electric cars will likely come out with higher battery voltages to enable faster charging.

Single Battery just means its kWh storage is too small to cut more than 50m2 of grass, two batteries would just double that. If you only have 50m2 of grass or willing to do in stints, then it maybe fine for you. My home in Dubai has 18m2 of grass, so it would work for me, however my old acreage in Gladstone, breasts on bull would be more useful.
RTT_Rules

There, my bolding. Voltage and torque are not correlated. In DC motors voltage and RPM are correlated, and torque and current are correlated.

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  ANR Chief Commissioner

It costs around $11,500 to replace a battery in a Nissan Leaf, with a warranty of 160,000km. (NRMA Open Road, July/August 2019).

Given the cost of a new EV, I.e. much higher than a combustion engine car, it doesn't make sense to buy one. ... Who is going to want to buy your EV trade in at 160,000km?

For now, diesel and petrol can't be beaten...
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

It costs around $11,500 to replace a battery in a Nissan Leaf, with a warranty of 160,000km. (NRMA Open Road, July/August 2019).

Given the cost of a new EV, I.e. much higher than a combustion engine car, it doesn't make sense to buy one. ... Who is going to want to buy your EV trade in at 160,000km?

For now, diesel and petrol can't be beaten...
ANR
If for instance they reduced to price to around $5000 in a few years time that would be a game changer. And I am sure some enterprising company in China may produce OEM batteries for say $3000 in the near future. And what might happen if the bunch of luddites presently in government are consigned to trash can and a more enlightened party decides to phase out petrol/diesel non-essential transport such as large family cars. It is going to happen one way or another.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
It costs around $11,500 to replace a battery in a Nissan Leaf, with a warranty of 160,000km. (NRMA Open Road, July/August 2019).

Given the cost of a new EV, I.e. much higher than a combustion engine car, it doesn't make sense to buy one. ... Who is going to want to buy your EV trade in at 160,000km?

For now, diesel and petrol can't be beaten...
ANR
True, on economics alone you would not buy a EV, its purely a emotional/personal choice. For the higher end EV's its also about performance and from what I understand they pretty much s__t over anything burning hydrocarbons.

Battery life, I believe that Tesla initially had plans for a battery exchange service but gave it all away when they found that in normal service, the battery's were not failing during the life of the car or at least as of yet. By the time the battery is likely to fail the value of the vehicle even with a good battery will be too low to warrant paying for a new battery.

I also read that most of the original Toyota Prius battery's now around 11-2 years old while suffering from some degradation are still performing to a satisfactory level. The taxi we caught in Cairns last year was a Prius and the driver said that due to the heat and driving they do they do replace the batteries at least once during the cars life as a taxi, but still an economic solution over a standard ICE power car.

On the flip side, my wife's Toyota Zelas is around 5 years old, 220,000km on the clock and listed as worth around $2000-2500 on a good day not bad for someone driving 50,000 to 60,000kmpa. If the engine or box failed tomorrow (standard Camry units), I won't be buying a new or recon engine rather I'll be looking for a newer car and selling her car to a wrecker. However the average Dubai Camry Taxi pulls 750,000 to 1,000,000km before retirement in 3.5years of service so hopefully not an issue any time soon for us.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
A quick check, it would appear by Q1 2020, globally EV cars will outsell hybrids.

Toyota has also finally joined the fray and committed to building their own EV's after a protracted period of living in denial.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
A quick check, it would appear by Q1 2020, globally EV cars will outsell hybrids.

Toyota has also finally joined the fray and committed to building their own EV's after a protracted period of living in denial.
RTT_Rules
Fake News Razz
Scott Morrison
  Carnot Minister for Railways

It's worth mentioning that sales of Toyota hybrids have been very strong in Australia this year. That makes a lot of sense due to the high percentage of electricity still sourced from coal and gas in this country at the present time.

That will change in future of course.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
It's worth mentioning that sales of Toyota hybrids have been very strong in Australia this year. That makes a lot of sense due to the high percentage of electricity still sourced from coal and gas in this country at the present time.

That will change in future of course.
Carnot
Globally it would appear hybrid numbers have plateaued even declined a tad from a few years back in the key markets like China, US and EU.

I was a bit surprised to see the numbers as the hybrid range has expanded and for example Toyota/Lexus only sell a few models in Australia compared to the US where fuel prices are cheaper.

China, EU and USA are also the locations were EV's are most popular, unlike Australia due to population density, availability of fast chargers, higher fuel prices, power price (expect US) and the govt driving change. Not every market has all these, but hopefully you get the picture. Australia's problem is also the lack of EV models that suit our market.

I still feel the future will be not be hybrid's as we know them today and that the ICE-mechanical drive train in hybrids will be completely removed and the car will be basically a EV with an optional genset sized to enable sustained driving of at least 500km. For example a Camry needs about a 35kW genset to sustain highway driving, which is half the capacity of a Suzuki Swift engine. As the engines, around 0.7L in capacity, likely 2 cylinder will not be running very often, they can be optmised to run at high out put at const RPM with direct connection to a suitable sized alternator and can be placed in front or rear of the car.
  ANR Chief Commissioner

The Australian is reporting that former Green's senator Bob Brown has baulked at the idea of having wind turbines built close to his back yard... Why not embrace 'green' technology?

The end is not nigh for the internal combustion engine....
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
The Australian is reporting that former Green's senator Bob Brown has baulked at the idea of having wind turbines built close to his back yard... Why not embrace 'green' technology?

The end is not nigh for the internal combustion engine....
ANR
Hypocrisy 100% there if true, though typical Renawbles/Greens bashing from the Murdock Mouse pieces. I doubt you happen to want a coal power plant in yours? Laughing
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The Australian is reporting that former Green's senator Bob Brown has baulked at the idea of having wind turbines built close to his back yard... Why not embrace 'green' technology?

The end is not nigh for the internal combustion engine....
Hypocrisy 100% there if true, though typical Renawbles/Greens bashing from the Murdock Mouse pieces. I doubt you happen to want a coal power plant in yours? Laughing
Dangersdan707
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/environmentalist-and-former-greens-leader-bob-brown-opposes-a-1-6-billion-wind-farm-because-it-will-spoil-the-scenery-2019-7

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bob-brown-calls-for-moderation-on-renewable-energy-proposals

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/bob-brown-rebukes-tasmanian-windfarm-project-as-the-new-franklin-dam

A number of media outlets are running with it.

This has nothing to do with coal power station placement and literally thousands of Australian's live within sight of a coal power station now.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, some of the biggest opposition to Wind Farms is actually the Green Movement.

Note the Green Movement are also the biggest Opposition to some of the Solar thermal projects and also the Green Movement is quietly distancing themselves from the likes of Tesla and other high performance EV's, which actually made EV's "cool" to own.

Remember Bob Brown rose to fame opposing the Renewable Energy Franklin Dam project which is why I struggle to see how all these pumped hydro projects required to replace coal will have even the slightest chance of seeing the light of day.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The Australian is reporting that former Green's senator Bob Brown has baulked at the idea of having wind turbines built close to his back yard... Why not embrace 'green' technology?

The end is not nigh for the internal combustion engine....
Hypocrisy 100% there if true, though typical Renawbles/Greens bashing from the Murdock Mouse pieces. I doubt you happen to want a coal power plant in yours? Laughing
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/environmentalist-and-former-greens-leader-bob-brown-opposes-a-1-6-billion-wind-farm-because-it-will-spoil-the-scenery-2019-7

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bob-brown-calls-for-moderation-on-renewable-energy-proposals

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/bob-brown-rebukes-tasmanian-windfarm-project-as-the-new-franklin-dam

A number of media outlets are running with it.

This has nothing to do with coal power station placement and literally thousands of Australian's live within sight of a coal power station now.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, some of the biggest opposition to Wind Farms is actually the Green Movement.

Note the Green Movement are also the biggest Opposition to some of the Solar thermal projects and also the Green Movement is quietly distancing themselves from the likes of Tesla and other high performance EV's, which actually made EV's "cool" to own.

Remember Bob Brown rose to fame opposing the Renewable Energy Franklin Dam project which is why I struggle to see how all these pumped hydro projects required to replace coal will have even the slightest chance of seeing the light of day.
RTT_Rules

Yes, a bit hypocritical of old Bob.

Another thing that is a problem with EVs is that they run on rubber/synthetic tires (like all road vehicles), which are the biggest contributor to micro-plastic pollution of our waterways and oceans:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/22/tyres-and-synthetic-clothes-big-cause-of-microplastic-pollution

Another good reason to put wheels on steel.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Yes, a bit hypocritical of old Bob.

Another thing that is a problem with EVs is that they run on rubber/synthetic tires (like all road vehicles), which are the biggest contributor to micro-plastic pollution of our waterways and oceans:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/22/tyres-and-synthetic-clothes-big-cause-of-microplastic-pollution

Another good reason to put wheels on steel.
Carnot
This is why the Greens will never achieve mainstream politics, unrealistic, hypocrisy, radicalism, inconsistent, one sided, uncompromising etc. If they ever got into power they would destroy the economy over night.

There is alot of things wrong with EV's environmentally and to achieve the ALP's target of 50% of new vehicles by 2030, more than 50% of all vehicles by 2040 in 20 years we have to triple the size of grid generational output at the same time shutdown 66% of its current input and replace it with something else that is affordable and reliable.

In other words the existing coal production needs to be replaced 4-5 times over within a generation, which considering some of the generational capacity is pushing 50 years old shows we normally don't build such capacity very often and this is base load 24/7/365 power. IF you are talking wind, you need to replace that number three  times over, solar is four times. So basically if it was 100% wind and PV solar our 18GW coal fired capacity would need around 60-80GW of wind and solar capacity.

Any additional hydro would pumped only, so no net increase in generational capacity. Yet we have to replace Tasmania's entire hydro output nearly 20 x over.

Hence I think if we are serious and practical it has to be nuclear to some degree.
  Carnot Minister for Railways


Yes, a bit hypocritical of old Bob.

Another thing that is a problem with EVs is that they run on rubber/synthetic tires (like all road vehicles), which are the biggest contributor to micro-plastic pollution of our waterways and oceans:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/22/tyres-and-synthetic-clothes-big-cause-of-microplastic-pollution

Another good reason to put wheels on steel.This is why the Greens will never achieve mainstream politics, unrealistic, hypocrisy, radicalism, inconsistent, one sided, uncompromising etc. If they ever got into power they would destroy the economy over night.

There is alot of things wrong with EV's environmentally and to achieve the ALP's target of 50% of new vehicles by 2030, more than 50% of all vehicles by 2040 in 20 years we have to triple the size of grid generational output at the same time shutdown 66% of its current input and replace it with something else that is affordable and reliable.

In other words the existing coal production needs to be replaced 4-5 times over within a generation, which considering some of the generational capacity is pushing 50 years old shows we normally don't build such capacity very often and this is base load 24/7/365 power. IF you are talking wind, you need to replace that number three  times over, solar is four times. So basically if it was 100% wind and PV solar our 18GW coal fired capacity would need around 60-80GW of wind and solar capacity.

Any additional hydro would pumped only, so no net increase in generational capacity. Yet we have to replace Tasmania's entire hydro output nearly 20 x over.

Hence I think if we are serious and practical it has to be nuclear to some degree.
RTT_Rules
I must admit I'm 'warming' to Nuclear energy.  I remember reading a report by the German Auto Industry 15 years ago and it basically said that without more nuclear power generation there would be significant shortages in electricity in Europe.  This was when Hydrogen Fuel Cell tech was expected to be the dominant alternative to the IC engine by the 2020s (i.e. Hydrogen produced by electrolysis etc).
  allan Chief Commissioner

Bob Brown's argument is compelling. This is a private moneymaking scheme that offers little benefit for Tasmanians.

Every project needs to balance the benefit for the common good against the costs to the common folk.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Bob Brown's argument is compelling. This is a private moneymaking scheme that offers little benefit for Tasmanians.

Every project needs to balance the benefit for the common good against the costs to the common folk.
allan
Not sure how

Power generation private or govt owned and Tasmania has both is required by all.

Tas suffered significant shortages of power due to drought conditions only a few years back. Yes the Basslink cable was down, but this is useless if the mainland itself is short on power which it was at times during this event. Still, if you want to have control of your future economy and lifestyle, importing power is not a good way to achieve this.

Tasmanian Premier wants to flaunt Tasmania as the battery of the nation, to do this he needs more generating capacity and without more dam's wind is a clear option due to its price and availability in Tas.  

Exporting power to the mainland will be importing revenue into Tas which brings jobs, something Tasmania needs.

Also, we are one country.
  allan Chief Commissioner

Also, we are one country.
RTT_rules
So, the Feds will pay for the duplication of the BassLink?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Also, we are one country.
So, the Feds will pay for the duplication of the BassLink?
allan
To achieve the RE targets, yes.

- Bass Link 2.0
- SA-NSW Link 1.0
- Snowy 2.0

All these will help move power around more easily that is required due to the push to RE. However no of it is cheap and when you look at the sums, on a commercial basis why bother. SA-NSW Link will save a $1/week for SA house holds and $0.50/week for NSW, on this alone, you simply wouldn't bother and there are other ways, but involve CO2 production. So these high cost, but marginal commercial projects provide more security for SA with less demand on gas and for NSW it enables excess wind and solar to help boost hydro reserves.

Tas is similar.

Tas however has some aging gas generation that needs to be put to sleep, more wind/solar will help boost the hydro network. Or if Bob Brown had his way, Bell Bay Smelter which uses 25% of the states power would be shutdown thus making Tas 100% RE and no need for more wind, probably even remove some that are there now. Meanwhile that near 100% Re aluminium production moves to China / India / ME and made from gas or coal. Yah a win for the environment, not!  

The wind turbines in SA, Vic, NSW, WA etc are equally visually obtrusive and a hazard to birds. The large PV solar arrays spread across rural Australia are equally hardly eye pleasing vs the natural vegetation and/or agricultural that was there before. Yet to achieve the RE target removing coal, we need many times more of the limited roll out we have now.

If Bob Brown and co want Australia to go RE, Bob Brown just needs to STFU and let the rest of us get on with it and stick to enjoying his parliamentary pension and retirement.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
A new coal mine gets approved in Qld, due to open 2022 and it's a small article on page 10 of the Couier Mail, oh wait, it's not an Indian company.
  HardWorkingMan Chief Commissioner

Location: Echuca
We went to a pub on the Great Alpine Road which had 5 Tesla recharging points outside.  The owner's were convinced to put them in about 18 months ago at their expense in return for special mentions in Tesla owners and ev charging guides and the promise that cars would be there for a minimum of 2 - 3 hours so would increase the demand for meals and accommodation.  So far they have not refilled one car.  The owner thinks he would have made more money by leaving the parking for other customers.

I imagine they are not alone so until there's enough vehicles out there to justify the recharging stations they won't get put in by private businesses but until there's enough charging stations people won't buy electric vehicles.

The same economics is seeing LPG being removed from service stations at the moment.  When the storage tanks are up for testing they are not selling enough LPG  to make a return on the investment so the pumps are being pulled out. Most people who used LPG to reduce their vehicle's running costs now my diesels or hybrids.  

It has had an impact in my country town as a local company produces gas cylinders. They had a full production line setup just producing tanks for cars but now it produces 1 tank every few months.  The BBQ Gas cylinder market has collapsed with the swap and go style refills and people importing them directly from India and Asia without the 15 year guarantee (and 10 year valve swap) tracking needed to meet Australian Standards.  They are staying afloat on gas cylinders for houses and forklifts as well as a new line of air brake tanks for railway use.

The shut down of the car industry has had an impact on them too as the grades of steel they need was also used by the car industry so now rather than being a small order on the back of a huge production run they are the production run and get charged all the machine setup costs for the run.  They made some using Chinese steel but the consistency wasn't there. When pressure tested some finished tanks would weep through the steel not the welds.  It's too expensive to make something then throw them away.  The USA firm who owns them was getting them to trial US steel but the $AUS needs to be above 80 cents for it to make financial sense.  My guess is they will eventually close manufacturing and become and importer and another 100 people will be out of work in a small country town as they import directly to their capital city warehouse.
  HardWorkingMan Chief Commissioner

Location: Echuca
We went to a pub on the Great Alpine Road which had 5 Tesla recharging points outside.  The owner's were convinced to put them in about 18 months ago at their expense in return for special mentions in Tesla owners and ev charging guides and the promise that cars would be there for a minimum of 2 - 3 hours so would increase the demand for meals and accommodation.  So far they have not refilled one car.  The owner thinks he would have made more money by leaving the parking for other customers.

I imagine they are not alone so until there's enough vehicles out there to justify the recharging stations they won't get put in by private businesses but until there's enough charging stations people won't buy electric vehicles.

The same economics is seeing LPG being removed from service stations at the moment.  When the storage tanks are up for testing they are not selling enough LPG  to make a return on the investment so the pumps are being pulled out. Most people who used LPG to reduce their vehicle's running costs now my diesels or hybrids.  

It has had an impact in my country town as a local company produces gas cylinders. They had a full production line setup just producing tanks for cars but now it produces 1 tank every few months.  The BBQ Gas cylinder market has collapsed with the swap and go style refills and people importing them directly from India and Asia without the 15 year guarantee (and 10 year valve swap) tracking needed to meet Australian Standards.  They are staying afloat on gas cylinders for houses and forklifts as well as a new line of air brake tanks for railway use.

The shut down of the car industry has had an impact on them too as the grades of steel they need was also used by the car industry so now rather than being a small order on the back of a huge production run they are the production run and get charged all the machine setup costs for the run.  They made some using Chinese steel but the consistency wasn't there. When pressure tested some finished tanks would weep through the steel not the welds.  It's too expensive to make something then throw them away.  The USA firm who owns them was getting them to trial US steel but the $AUS needs to be above 80 cents for it to make financial sense.  My guess is they will eventually close manufacturing and become and importer and another 100 people will be out of work in a small country town as they import directly to their capital city warehouse.
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dalby Qld
I noticed a ChargeFox EV charging point adjacent to Bell Park in Dalby today. It is the only one I know of here and I don't think it has been there long. To my way of thinking it is in an awkward place. Also there is nothing preventing other vehicles parking there and making it useless!

From their website:
"With hundreds of stations on our network, you can rest assured you’re never far from a Chargefox station."

Hundreds of charge points to serve 7.7m sq km? Really? Perhaps hundreds of thousands!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
We went to a pub on the Great Alpine Road which had 5 Tesla recharging points outside.  The owner's were convinced to put them in about 18 months ago at their expense in return for special mentions in Tesla owners and ev charging guides and the promise that cars would be there for a minimum of 2 - 3 hours so would increase the demand for meals and accommodation.  So far they have not refilled one car.  The owner thinks he would have made more money by leaving the parking for other customers.

I imagine they are not alone so until there's enough vehicles out there to justify the recharging stations they won't get put in by private businesses but until there's enough charging stations people won't buy electric vehicles.

The same economics is seeing LPG being removed from service stations at the moment.  When the storage tanks are up for testing they are not selling enough LPG  to make a return on the investment so the pumps are being pulled out. Most people who used LPG to reduce their vehicle's running costs now my diesels or hybrids.  

It has had an impact in my country town as a local company produces gas cylinders. They had a full production line setup just producing tanks for cars but now it produces 1 tank every few months.  The BBQ Gas cylinder market has collapsed with the swap and go style refills and people importing them directly from India and Asia without the 15 year guarantee (and 10 year valve swap) tracking needed to meet Australian Standards.  They are staying afloat on gas cylinders for houses and forklifts as well as a new line of air brake tanks for use.

The shut down of the car industry has had an impact on them too as the grades of steel they need was also used by the car industry so now rather than being a small order on the back of a huge production run they are the production run and get charged all the machine setup costs for the run.  They made some using Chinese steel but the consistency wasn't there. When pressure tested some finished tanks would weep through the steel not the welds.  It's too expensive to make something then throw them away.  The USA firm who owns them was getting them to trial US steel but the $AUS needs to be above 80 cents for it to make financial sense.  My guess is they will eventually close manufacturing and become and importer and another 100 people will be out of work in a small country town as they import directly to their capital city warehouse.
HardWorkingMan
5 Tesla charging stations is probably a bit ridiculous, I would have done one and expanded based on demand.

EV's are coming enmass, there is currently a lack of Right Hand drive Australian market type models but this will change rapidly over the coming 3 years. Remember the world's most popular EV is a the Tesla Model 3 (same size Camry) and they are only just starting or will start shortly to make RHD modes.

Other countries such as NZ have solved the charging station issue and without extensive govt involvement, Australia will follow. The likes of the NRMA etc are getting involved installing them. There was some early issues with people leaving their cars on charging statons lone after its charged, but if you have both pay by minute and pay by kW charging, such NZ etc, they soon get sick of the high cost parking meter.

With more EV's on the road, the charging station issue will change rapidly and your mate on the Great Ocean road will probably start seeing customers soon.

Regarding gas cylinders, yes we are in an increasingly fast rate of change. Good are the days of lining up to refill your gas cylinder for which most people don't miss.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

For routes with high volumes of traffic, on-the-fly charging may be practical.

For rail it would ‘simply’ be a matter of electrifying short sections of track. Three-phase AC, with overhead and pantographs similar to, for example, the Jungfrau Railway, could be used.

A similar arrangement could be used for trucks using trolleybus wiring and twin poles (3 for three-phase AC) on short sections of highway.

Anyway, although the basic technology exists now, it will be 15 – 20 years at least down the track or road, as the case may be.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
‘Short’ sections of track electrified for charging? Give us some calculations on what you think ‘short sections’ are and how much impact you think those sections will have on battery charge level.

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