The End of the Internal Combustion Engine is Nigh

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2020 23:08
  HardWorkingMan Chief Commissioner

Location: Echuca
also how does the person recharging pay for their power usage? How do you meter one car if there's a dozen on that stretch of road all charging?

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  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Depends on the state of the technology in the future. Determining factors will be density of traffic, range between recharges, amount of juice that can be pumped in within a certain period. Newcastle already has something similar with its battery tram.

It seems doubtful for cars, however, one suggestion: photo timestamp on / photo timestamp off.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
For routes with high volumes of traffic, on-the-fly charging may be practical.

For rail it would ‘simply’ be a matter of electrifying short sections of track. Three-phase AC, with overhead and pantographs similar to, for example, the Jungfrau Railway, could be used.

A similar arrangement could be used for trucks using trolleybus wiring and twin poles (3 for three-phase AC) on short sections of highway.

Anyway, although the basic technology exists now, it will be 15 – 20 years at least down the track or road, as the case may be.
kitchgp
The German's are already trialing a 5km section of highway with twin wire feed (forget 3 phase). the trucks have panos so in that area, raise the pano and shut down the diesel. Roll the dice forward in time and there won't be a diesel, rather it will be a battery being recharged as well as the truck being propelled forward at the same time.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
also how does the person recharging pay for their power usage? How do you meter one car if there's a dozen on that stretch of road all charging?
HardWorkingMan
Simple, a meter and account on your phone.

Truck using the system in Germany being trialled now or car on that other system mentioned (which I don't think will happen), starts taking charge and the amount is recorded by the vehicle and payment sent when disconnected.

How to prevent people using and not paying, same as e-toll. Number plate recognition.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

No one mentioned a car system.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Hypothetical:

If a locomotive had a range of 250 km per charge, 4 charging lanes centred 200 km apart would cover the 1000 km odd between Melbourne and Sydney.

At 80 km/h, a locomotive would be under the wire for about 8 mins if the lanes were 10 km long and for about 16 mins if the lanes were 20 km long. A total of 40 km or 80 km of wiring respectively.

The figures can be massaged to suit.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Hypothetical:

If a locomotive had a range of 250 km per charge, 4 charging lanes centred 200 km apart would cover the 1000 km odd between Melbourne and Sydney.

At 80 km/h, a locomotive would be under the wire for about 8 mins if the lanes were 10 km long and for about 16 mins if the lanes were 20 km long. A total of 40 km or 80 km of wiring respectively.

The figures can be massaged to suit.
kitchgp
Yes need to massage, as wouldn't be long enough.

200km is running it a bit tight as the typical fast charge is 0 - 80%, you have left yourself with no buffer under ideal conditions.

Suggest 150km apart.

Duration assuming fast charging capability using 25kVA supply would mean you need about 45min min of connection time, again to provide some buffer. Also note if this was the only charge the battery got, it would limit the battery life.

So assume 80km/h average speed, 45min is 60km of OH with 150km gaps in between.

OH is a round $1-2 M/km?

Would it be worth it over the cost of a battery in the locos, would it even fit?

I see value in sparking +90% of the line and using battery locos, like hybrid cars to solve the issues of electric trains of the past. ie shunting, dealing with power outages, cost of putting OH in tight tunnels etc.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

The locomotive range of 250 km is the distance to the next required charge, not to battery exhaustion. Factors such as terrain will obviously influence the range, eg 200 km in hilly and 300 km on flat. Charging lanes may be sited to assist trains in steep sections, eg up trains on the Bethungra Spiral.

It could also incorporate static charge points, such as locations where crew changes take place. Static points would be necessary for the locomotive to operate on quieter lines. Using a pantograph, a la Newcastle tram, would be quicker than running out an extension cord and plugging it into a power point.

From a non-electrical engineer viewpoint, three-phase AC may be considered as it should give three times the power and perhaps allow 3 batteries to be charged at the same time, reducing the charge time from 45 to 15 mins.

Most of the above would also apply to trucks. The volume of traffic on a particular route will be a major consideration in determining if it is cost-effective or not. As mentioned at the start, all this is speculative and based on suitable technology being available in 20 years, or whenever, time.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
We can tell you’re not talking from the point of view of an electrical engineer, no need to tell us.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The locomotive range of 250 km is the distance to the next required charge, not to battery exhaustion. Factors such as terrain will obviously influence the range, eg 200 km in hilly and 300 km on flat. Charging lanes may be sited to assist trains in steep sections, eg up trains on the Bethungra Spiral.

It could also incorporate static charge points, such as locations where crew changes take place. Static points would be necessary for the locomotive to operate on quieter lines. Using a pantograph, a la Newcastle tram, would be quicker than running out an extension cord and plugging it into a power point.

From a non-electrical engineer viewpoint, three-phase AC may be considered as it should give three times the power and perhaps allow 3 batteries to be charged at the same time, reducing the charge time from 45 to 15 mins.

Most of the above would also apply to trucks. The volume of traffic on a particular route will be a major consideration in determining if it is cost-effective or not. As mentioned at the start, all this is speculative and based on suitable technology being available in 20 years, or whenever, time.
kitchgp
Yeah, I was thinking same. Hills, passing loops and the track post the loop and waiting locations where the trains are waiting, accelerating or applying power. Passing loops are a good option for trains to stow and recharge if their charge is low.

From a non-electrical point of few but a few steps further up the ladder, DC is most efficient form of charging, look at car chargers. However 25kVA as per typical supply used on new OH railways is most likely the most cost effective, as you can have a lower cost substation and the OH can run up to 20-25km in either direction. Your cables are also smaller and lower loses.  Think QR 10,000t coal trains being hauled by three locos with just 1 pano each compared coal spark hauled freights in NSW less than 1000m long running with both pano's up and still arcing out and often welding the pano to the O/H under heavy loads.

Moral of the story Power (W) = Amps (A) x Volts (V), increase the voltage to 25kV and you can transmit 10MW of power at just 400amps. I say use AC as the sub's are alot cheaper.

AS for 3 phase, you need to look up 3 phase sign waves to see how it works. In simple terms, you run the equivalent of 2 lines at full load over 3 lines.  The reason for using 3 phase over 1 phase is more complicated but it is good for AC motors/alternators. Look at long distance end to end power lines, typically DC, not 3 phase.

I think in the future we will see a resurgence of electric track with OH only rolled out on the main lines. Ironically since Electric traction freight phased out i part because it was expensive or difficult to deal with mid route shunting, the industry has moved away from individual shunting to rake load movements with main line locos running from depo to depo and loss of minor branch lines and other traffic less friendly to electric traction.

The issue will be that H2 powered locos will likely still be cheaper than rolling out OH.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The issue will be that H2 powered locos will likely still be cheaper than rolling out OH.
RTT_Rules
H2 will never used as a vehicle fuel, at least not by me.

H2 is terrifying, extremely high propensity for detonation when mixed with air, I have been around all sorts of nasties in physics and chemistry and none of them worry me nearly as much as hydrogen. In terms of vehicle use H2 has a fairly low energy density too, at rational weights you're not going far.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The issue will be that H2 powered locos will likely still be cheaper than rolling out OH.
H2 will never used as a vehicle fuel, at least not by me.

H2 is terrifying, extremely high propensity for detonation when mixed with air, I have been around all sorts of nasties in physics and chemistry and none of them worry me nearly as much as hydrogen. In terms of vehicle use H2 has a fairly low energy density too, at rational weights you're not going far.
Aaron
I'm probably not far behind you on this one.

I've been watching a few video's on Youtube of late by "Everyday Astronaut", he has a video of the hydro leaking from rockets lighting up on ignition. In slow motion you can see H2 flames rising up from around the rockets as the igniters light up, especially around boosters etc. The known this is a phenomenon and go to great lengths to try and ignite this H2 early before it could cause harm.  

I think H2 in ground vehicles will be limited to trains, long haul trucks, buses etc, not so cars or 4x4 or not at least in large numbers.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The new Volkswagen EV has just been unveiled.  Think of it as having the external dimensions of a Golf, the interior space of a Passat, and the performance of a GTi, all for about $48K:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/791298/volkswagen-id-3-unveiled/

But we won't get it until 2022.  I can see it being an attractive vehicle for Urbanites.

Also, an interesting article on Solid State Batteries.  But lots of technical and cost challenges to overcome with it, from what I've read elsewhere:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/791302/solid-state-batteries-volkswagen/
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The new Volkswagen EV has just been unveiled.  Think of it as having the external dimensions of a Golf, the interior space of a Passat, and the performance of a GTi, all for about $48K:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/791298/volkswagen-id-3-unveiled/

But we won't get it until 2022.  I can see it being an attractive vehicle for Urbanites.

Also, an interesting article on Solid State Batteries.  But lots of technical and cost challenges to overcome with it, from what I've read elsewhere:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/791302/solid-state-batteries-volkswagen/
Carnot
interesting, VW stablemate Audi is offering all its EV models as an option of the existing model. So externally and internally you cannot tell what the drive system is. They were somewhat critised for this for not making the most of EV technology but they said their brand is in the name, ie people want a Q5 or A4 with the option of EV etc.

By 2025, most of the models on offer today by the manufacturers will be EV or have an EV option or equivalent. The tide is flowing to strong on this change now to change direction and H2 is my view is not going to take over as you have to replicate the hydro carbon supply chain 100% to get it in regular use apart from a few buses in a capital city. EV even if you don't have a fast charger I could buy one and live in Bourke and use it today, although longhaul driving needs alot of planning, but this will change quickly over coming years.

Battery technology is the new engine/gearbox technology for manufacturers. The EV motor an drive train is mostly fully optimized, the challenge is a battery that is cheaper, smaller, lighter, life and greater range and for this they don't need a single mechanical engineer or mechanic so alot of people need an industry change
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dalby Qld
The all new Ford Escape, coming next year is a Hybrid vehicle with the claim:
The all-new Plug-In Hybrid powertrain available delivers the driving range and freedom offered by a traditional combustion engine alongside the efficiency and refinement of an electric powertrain. Offering an anticipated pure-electric driving range of more than 50km.
Ford Australia


https://www.ford.com.au/future-vehicle/escape/

More than 50km pure electric driving range? Sounds a little inadequate to me.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The all new Ford Escape, coming next year is a Hybrid vehicle with the claim:
The all-new Plug-In Hybrid powertrain available delivers the driving range and freedom offered by a traditional combustion engine alongside the efficiency and refinement of an electric powertrain. Offering an anticipated pure-electric driving range of more than 50km.


https://www.ford.com.au/future-vehicle/escape/

More than 50km pure electric driving range? Sounds a little inadequate to me.
Graham4405
Still an IC Engined car.  The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has a similar range and spec.  It's been around for a few years.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The all new Ford Escape, coming next year is a Hybrid vehicle with the claim:
The all-new Plug-In Hybrid powertrain available delivers the driving range and freedom offered by a traditional combustion engine alongside the efficiency and refinement of an electric powertrain. Offering an anticipated pure-electric driving range of more than 50km.


https://www.ford.com.au/future-vehicle/escape/

More than 50km pure electric driving range? Sounds a little inadequate to me.
Graham4405
Its a Plug-In Hybrid, what did you expect 500km of petrol fuelled driving + 500km of EV driving? Do you know how heavy the car would be?

The concept of this car is to give buyers almost the best of both worlds.

- For short distance driving, local railway station, shops, school run etc you can be 100% EV and charge it at home with a backup petrol engine as needed.

- But for the weekend drive to the hills, annual visit to Grandma's etc your car has the flexibility of a traditional ICE but advantage of recovering braking energy to use less fuel, no range anxiety.

Likely good for people like you Graham living out of the city, maybe wanting an EV where current EV technology and infrastructure isn't really well suited/developed at this stage to your needs.
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dalby Qld
The all new Ford Escape, coming next year is a Hybrid vehicle with the claim:
The all-new Plug-In Hybrid powertrain available delivers the driving range and freedom offered by a traditional combustion engine alongside the efficiency and refinement of an electric powertrain. Offering an anticipated pure-electric driving range of more than 50km.


https://www.ford.com.au/future-vehicle/escape/

More than 50km pure electric driving range? Sounds a little inadequate to me.
Its a Plug-In Hybrid, what did you expect 500km of petrol fuelled driving + 500km of EV driving? Do you know how heavy the car would be?

The concept of this car is to give buyers almost the best of both worlds.

- For short distance driving, local railway station, shops, school run etc you can be 100% EV and charge it at home with a backup petrol engine as needed.

- But for the weekend drive to the hills, annual visit to Grandma's etc your car has the flexibility of a traditional ICE but advantage of recovering braking energy to use less fuel, no range anxiety.

Likely good for people like you Graham living out of the city, maybe wanting an EV where current EV technology and infrastructure isn't really well suited/developed at this stage to your needs.
RTT_Rules
My point being that such a vehicle won't lead to the end of the Internal Combustion Engine.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
My point being that such a vehicle won't lead to the end of the Internal Combustion Engine.
Graham4405
The best guesstimates ICE will be around for another 20-30 years due to locations and some applications in the world not suited to EV.

Personally I think stand alone ICE as fills the show rooms today will pretty much be phased out within 15-20 years or so OR at best the ICE engine will be a booster engine like that used in a BMW i3 which unlike a traditional hybrid, the ICE is a mere small genset in the back not connected to the drive train.

EV is superior in many ways over ICE as far as car driving is concerned, it just lacks range and sub 5min recharge times. Range is a work in progress and will be less of an issue as it both improves and charging stations become more common. Recharge times is a cultural shift and I doubt will ever be less than 15-20min.
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dalby Qld
Range is a work in progress and will be less of an issue as it both improves and charging stations become more common. Recharge times is a cultural shift and I doubt will ever be less than 15-20min.
RTT_Rules

If range can be drastically increased then recharge times will not be as critical.

I'm probably a bit dumb, but I really can't see the point of a hybrid if the EV side of it has such a small range, but I guess for purely town driving it has its place.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Range is a work in progress and will be less of an issue as it both improves and charging stations become more common. Recharge times is a cultural shift and I doubt will ever be less than 15-20min.

If range can be drastically increased then recharge times will not be as critical.

I'm probably a bit dumb, but I really can't see the point of a hybrid if the EV side of it has such a small range, but I guess for purely town driving it has its place.
Graham4405
No, your not dump.

EV / PHEV technology is very different to what we have been used to for the last +100 years. Its a whole culture shift and many people are struggling to come to terms with the differences.

The industry will admit their biggest challenge is overcoming "range phobia". A modern ICE has a range of 500-800km and can be refueled almost anywhere and even if you run out a 5L can of fuel and you are good to go 5min later. Run an EV flat and things are currently very different. You will likely need to be towed and charging stations are still in Australia few and far between and often slow, very slow. The Fast charger network is a work in progress.

PHEV is a technology to solve the issues of the above but still be an EV (of sorts) and address Range Phobia. The older batteries were a bit limited in range for their physical size so to keep the weight down range is heavily compromised. The average Australian car is driven just on 50km/day. So if you do less than this as routine for what ever reason, you have most of the benefits of an EV without the range issues.

Personally I think the PHEV technology and the Hybrid technology used by Toyota in its Prius, Camry, Rav4, Corolla etc will evolve into the likes of BMW i3, ie a pure EV with a genset in the back or front as an option, maybe even removal option.

I also think many in the support and down stream car industry, ie mechanics, people who rebuild engines etc are basically starting to poo bricks realising the industry they know is about to be turned on its heads and basically killed off like the horse and buggy. An EV needs a fraction of the mechanical maintenance an ICE car requires and less often and less likely to breakdown. If your into doing up cars, the engine and gear box is now as reliable and options to improve performance as your vacuum cleaner as many larger EV's are hitting th roads as the worlds fastest or top 10 production cars. Unlike ICE which focused on development of the engine and gear box, development and performance development of EV's is in the non mechanical battery.

Most super cars next models are EV only, the 2020's will see the end of regular sale of ICE cars outside a narrow range of applications, certainly the end of diesels in soft 4x4 and cars. The art and skill of rebuilding V8's etc will fade into history like the steam era. My kids are 10/13, their first cars are likely to be ICE, but probably not the 2nd, especially my youngest. Their kids will likely only see petrol engines in museums or with heritage number plates and 3rd world countries.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

It's probably worth mentioning that Daimler-Benz are no longer going to invest in further IC Engine development.

And Amazon have just put in an order in for 100000 EV Rivian Vans (made in the former Mitsubishi plant in Illinois):
https://www.caradvice.com.au/794996/amazon-rivian-vans/
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
It's probably worth mentioning that Daimler-Benz are no longer going to invest in further IC Engine development.

And Amazon have just put in an order in for 100000 EV Rivian Vans (made in the former Mitsubishi plant in Illinois):
https://www.caradvice.com.au/794996/amazon-rivian-vans/
Carnot
Most of the upper end car manufacturers have either ceased or winding down ICE development, especially diesel.

The car yards in 5 years time will certainly be very different to today.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
How many vehicles on the planet right now? Not only that, consider all other industries that currently requires ‘portable’ power, so that would include all aircraft, ocean going vessels, maybe some trains, refrigerated containers, mobile phones, laptops, to a small extent torches, power tools, and other stuff I can’t be bothered thinking of.

Add to that ‘grid’ storage.

Now consider, does ‘the planet’ have enough lithium and other elemental requirements  for ‘the planet’s’ battery needs?

I think probably not.

Now we might be able to run all the world’s trains from power cords, likewise we might have to return to mostly ‘corded’ power tools, we could maybe run all ocean going traffic (of sufficient size) from nuclear, but that wouldn’t half piss off the (not actually green) ‘greenies’. Battery aircraft? Economically carrying sufficient people trans oceanic? I don’t think we are ever going to see QANTAS flying an electric aircraft economically or otherwise Perth-London non stop...

I think ‘battery’ storage - in the physical electron storage sense, for grid/industry/home use is likely to eventually found out as being a terrible idea and waste of a resource best used elsewhere.

That is likely somewhat in the future, but if ‘we’ don’t ‘think’ of it ‘today’ then in a half dozen generations’ time our future selves are going to think that we today didn’t think about the future anymore than we currently think of Victorian era, industrial revolutionists thinking about carbon and today.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
How many vehicles on the planet right now? Not only that, consider all other industries that currently requires ‘portable’ power, so that would include all aircraft, ocean going vessels, maybe some trains, refrigerated containers, mobile phones, laptops, to a small extent torches, power tools, and other stuff I can’t be bothered thinking of.

Add to that ‘grid’ storage.

Now consider, does ‘the planet’ have enough lithium and other elemental requirements  for ‘the planet’s’ battery needs?

I think probably not.

Now we might be able to run all the world’s trains from power cords, likewise we might have to return to mostly ‘corded’ power tools, we could maybe run all ocean going traffic (of sufficient size) from nuclear, but that wouldn’t half piss off the (not actually green) ‘greenies’. Battery aircraft? Economically carrying sufficient people trans oceanic? I don’t think we are ever going to see QANTAS flying an electric aircraft economically or otherwise Perth-London non stop...

I think ‘battery’ storage - in the physical electron storage sense, for grid/industry/home use is likely to eventually found out as being a terrible idea and waste of a resource best used elsewhere.

That is likely somewhat in the future, but if ‘we’ don’t ‘think’ of it ‘today’ then in a half dozen generations’ time our future selves are going to think that we today didn’t think about the future anymore than we currently think of Victorian era, industrial revolutionists thinking about carbon and today.
Aaron
https://www.worldometers.info/cars/

Some car/light vehicle fun facts

Approximately 1B cars in the world today, was reached in 2010
USA has around 1/4 of them

2017 72m cars made
2011 60m
2007 50m
1999 40m

(so much for PT growth taking over from cars)

Car makers 2016
1. China 33%
2. Japan 11%
3. Germany 8%
4. USA 5.5%
5. Sth K 5.4%
6. India 5.1%

30. Australia 0.2% of worlds car production 154k (now you know why we are out)

Below, Finland, Holland, Egypt, Ukraine making up the rear.

mid 2030's, estimated roughly half the cars made are likely to be EV

https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-of-lithium/

Global Lithium sales were a constant 30,000tpa until 2015, 85,000tpa in 2018.
Tesla's own demand forecast to exceed 2015 global production by 2023'ish

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves

Argentina followed by Aust have the largest known reserves of Li, however Australia is currently the largest miner of Li.

Globally, known reserves are rated at 16mt. This is an older number determined a few years back and may get pushed higher, however "Peak Lithium", if there is such a thing is likely a few years away yet. Then of course can and how much Li be recycled from dead batteries.

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