The corona virus COVID-19

 
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Dr Harvey Risch, Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, says that the vaccines are not working to stem the pandemic since 60% of all new diagnosis of COVID19 in the United States is now with people who have been vaccinated.

He does say that the severity and symptoms of the virus in the individual are reduced with vaccines but there's no impact on the capacity of the virus to spread though the community; you are still just as likely to transmit the virus to other people even though you've been vaccinated.

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  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Dr Harvey Risch, Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, says that the vaccines are not working to stem the pandemic since 60% of all new diagnosis of COVID19 in the United States is now with people who have been vaccinated.

He does say that the severity and symptoms of the virus in the individual are reduced with vaccines but there's no impact on the capacity of the virus to spread though the community; you are still just as likely to transmit the virus to other people even though you've been vaccinated.
don_dunstan
To be fair, vaccines were never about stopping the pandemic, what they were designed to do from my knowledge is to prevent less severe illness in people that contract the virus, so it's all the more important for people to get vaccinated.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Dr Harvey Risch, Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, says that the vaccines are not working to stem the pandemic since 60% of all new diagnosis of COVID19 in the United States is now with people who have been vaccinated.

He does say that the severity and symptoms of the virus in the individual are reduced with vaccines but there's no impact on the capacity of the virus to spread though the community; you are still just as likely to transmit the virus to other people even though you've been vaccinated.
To be fair, vaccines were never about stopping the pandemic, what they were designed to do from my knowledge is to prevent less severe illness in people that contract the virus, so it's all the more important for people to get vaccinated.
lsrailfan
to the best of my knowledge, No vaccine in the world stops you getting the virus, it just trains your body on how to manage it before the body is exposed to the virus and thus reduce more serious health conditions from the virus.

The data shows that in populations with a high rate of CV-19 vaccination, the rates of death and hospital administration or more serious hospital administration is far lower, which was the expectation from the state. Hence the current focus on # of cases should be changed to severity and hospital/ICU administrations.  

CV-19, aka SARS-2 is here to stay, like SARS-1, the vaccine just reduces the likelihood of death significantly.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Dr Harvey Risch, Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, says that the vaccines are not working to stem the pandemic since 60% of all new diagnosis of COVID19 in the United States is now with people who have been vaccinated.

He does say that the severity and symptoms of the virus in the individual are reduced with vaccines but there's no impact on the capacity of the virus to spread though the community; you are still just as likely to transmit the virus to other people even though you've been vaccinated.
To be fair, vaccines were never about stopping the pandemic, what they were designed to do from my knowledge is to prevent less severe illness in people that contract the virus, so it's all the more important for people to get vaccinated.
lsrailfan
Dr Anthony Faucci speaking here at Harvard University in December 2020:

If 75 percent to 80 percent of Americans are vaccinated in broad-based campaigns likely to start in the second quarter of next year, then the U.S. should reach the herd immunity threshold months later. If vaccination levels are significantly lower, 40 percent to 50 percent, Fauci said, it could take a very long time to reach that level of protection.

“Let’s say we get 75 percent, 80 percent of the population vaccinated,” Fauci said. “If we do that, if we do it efficiently enough over the second quarter of 2021, by the time we get to the end of the summer, i.e., the third quarter, we may actually have enough herd immunity protecting our society that as we get to the end of 2021, we can approach very much some degree of normality that is close to where we were before.”

Is the 'degree of normality' one where we all still have to wear masks everywhere and are restricted in where and when we can travel - is that 'normality'? In reality, nothing will change - the virus will still be going through the community as before it's just that deaths of the actual virus will (probably) be less because we will have attained 'herd immunity' (which is what Sweden was going for from the start). We still won't be allowed to leave the country, we will still have restrictions and lock-downs at least for the next few years.

As I've said right from the start, we're going to have learn to live with this thing WITHOUT shutting everything down when there's an outbreak - it will simply not be affordable going into the future. And vaccines will not save us from lockdowns and will not allow us to go back to 'normal' - that much is becoming apparent.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Is the 'degree of normality' one where we all still have to wear masks everywhere and are restricted in where and when we can travel - is that 'normality'? In reality, nothing will change - the virus will still be going through the community as before it's just that deaths of the actual virus will (probably) be less because we will have attained 'herd immunity' (which is what Sweden was going for from the start). We still won't be allowed to leave the country, we will still have restrictions and lock-downs at least for the next few years.

As I've said right from the start, we're going to have learn to live with this thing WITHOUT shutting everything down when there's an outbreak - it will simply not be affordable going into the future. And vaccines will not save us from lockdowns and will not allow us to go back to 'normal' - that much is becoming apparent.
don_dunstan
Probably or at least to a point.

Sweden's herd immunity with no vaccine approach failed and basically an act of stupidity from the start. The outcome would have been worse if not for its neighbors closing their borders. Its all good until you have to bury a relative.

The Language of the PM has changed in recent weeks. I think I heard him say, "once everyone who wants the vaccine, has had the chance to get the vaccine, the border restrictions will start to ease." Clearly if you opt out, you are on your own and the country won't be held back for you.

Personally I think the likes of Australia, NZ and US have SFA chance of getting +85% and likely more than +70% vaccination. Too many people with medical issues that will prevent them from getting the vaccine PLUS the redneck anti vaxers or anti-CV-19 vaxers will prevent this target.

The UAE has now exceeded 50%, but resistance to getting the vaccination is starting to slow things down and hence the govt has announced it "may" (read will) apply an increasing number of restrictions for those who opt out and examples given didn't include VISA renewal, but it will come and it will likely be done quickly for VISA application first. In certain fields its now almost impossible to keep your job if you opted out of getting the vaccine. Some hard nose expats have acknowledged they won't have a choice and decided to leave. Not sure about what happens to locals, but normally they are fairly conforming and if they opt out they will likely miss out on govt services, including access to schools, travel and hospitals, work. However I believe the UAE will achieve +85% of the +16 year old population by end of June, if not before.

Its also become clear that 2021 will be concluded with borders around the world not alot different from today. While some tourist based economies are trying to open up, like Iceland, Maldives etc. Those less dependent on tourism are happy with status quo and now India looks like its about to go pear shaped, with the huge diaspora of Indian's world wide, expect many borders to be closed or heavily restricted for some time.

Global Vaccine roll out has also slowed on the back of concerns with AZ and J&J and likely others. Pfizer can only make so much to compensate.

How we live with it without shutting things down/border closures? Currently I don't think we can and you don't have a solution just like the govt.  

Many Aussies/Kiwi's in UAE forums have acknowledged that trips home to visit family are never going to be practical if two week quarantine remains in place due to limitations in schooling and annual leave and unaffordable (and god help you if they find a positive on your plane as everyone is held in the hotel for longer). So many are now considering a permanent move home or as in the case of my Canadian friend in KSA facing the same issue, bought an apartment in Turkey and that will be there home away from home for the foreseeable future. They can meet their parents there and parents do the 2 week hotel stay on return as they are retired.

EDIT: Its also worth noting the villa realestate prices iin Dubai are on the rapid rise in Dubai, but not apartments as people acknowledge the city of travelers, can no longer travel, so people now spending their Annual Leave in their own house, so they want a yard, community facilities etc.

And people from other countries investing in property in Dubai as flying to Dubai for holidays and being forced to home quarantine in a large villa with a pool in the sunshine for two weeks in a city where EVERYTHING is available with door to door delivery isn't so bad compared to their own country, especially with so much kids schooling and work from home now becoming normalised.

EDIT2: The cost for my family to visit our parents in Oz, $30,000 in air fares (as cheap as it gets these days) + $5000 in hotel with a minimum (its not a max) two weeks in a hotel of unknown standard, condition, size etc. At least as a family you get 1-2 bedroom, maybe.

Yeah, not going to happen. For our parents to come visit us, its similar airfare cost + minimum 3mths out of the country (govt rule) + two weeks in a hotel on return of unknown standard, size or condition and if you are just a couple its a standard room , yeah, not going to happen.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Is the 'degree of normality' one where we all still have to wear masks everywhere and are restricted in where and when we can travel - is that 'normality'? In reality, nothing will change - the virus will still be going through the community as before it's just that deaths of the actual virus will (probably) be less because we will have attained 'herd immunity' (which is what Sweden was going for from the start). We still won't be allowed to leave the country, we will still have restrictions and lock-downs at least for the next few years.

As I've said right from the start, we're going to have learn to live with this thing WITHOUT shutting everything down when there's an outbreak - it will simply not be affordable going into the future. And vaccines will not save us from lockdowns and will not allow us to go back to 'normal' - that much is becoming apparent.
Probably or at least to a point.

Sweden's herd immunity with no vaccine approach failed and basically an act of stupidity from the start. The outcome would have been worse if not for its neighbors closing their borders. Its all good until you have to bury a relative.

The Language of the PM has changed in recent weeks. I think I heard him say, "once everyone who wants the vaccine, has had the chance to get the vaccine, the border restrictions will start to ease." Clearly if you opt out, you are on your own and the country won't be held back for you.

Personally I think the likes of Australia, NZ and US have SFA chance of getting +85% and likely more than +70% vaccination. Too many people with medical issues that will prevent them from getting the vaccine PLUS the redneck anti vaxers or anti-CV-19 vaxers will prevent this target.

The UAE has now exceeded 50%, but resistance to getting the vaccination is starting to slow things down and hence the govt has announced it "may" (read will) apply an increasing number of restrictions for those who opt out and examples given didn't include VISA renewal, but it will come and it will likely be done quickly for VISA application first. In certain fields its now almost impossible to keep your job if you opted out of getting the vaccine. Some hard nose expats have acknowledged they won't have a choice and decided to leave. Not sure about what happens to locals, but normally they are fairly conforming and if they opt out they will likely miss out on govt services, including access to schools, travel and hospitals, work. However I believe the UAE will achieve +85% of the +16 year old population by end of June, if not before.

Its also become clear that 2021 will be concluded with borders around the world not alot different from today. While some tourist based economies are trying to open up, like Iceland, Maldives etc. Those less dependent on tourism are happy with status quo and now India looks like its about to go pear shaped, with the huge diaspora of Indian's world wide, expect many borders to be closed or heavily restricted for some time.

Global Vaccine roll out has also slowed on the back of concerns with AZ and J&J and likely others. Pfizer can only make so much to compensate.

How we live with it without shutting things down/border closures? Currently I don't think we can and you don't have a solution just like the govt.  

Many Aussies/Kiwi's in UAE forums have acknowledged that trips home to visit family are never going to be practical if two week quarantine remains in place due to limitations in schooling and annual leave and unaffordable (and god help you if they find a positive on your plane as everyone is held in the hotel for longer). So many are now considering a permanent move home or as in the case of my Canadian friend in KSA facing the same issue, bought an apartment in Turkey and that will be there home away from home for the foreseeable future. They can meet their parents there and parents do the 2 week hotel stay on return as they are retired.

EDIT: Its also worth noting the villa realestate prices iin Dubai are on the rapid rise in Dubai, but not apartments as people acknowledge the city of travelers, can no longer travel, so people now spending their Annual Leave in their own house, so they want a yard, community facilities etc.

And people from other countries investing in property in Dubai as flying to Dubai for holidays and being forced to home quarantine in a large villa with a pool in the sunshine for two weeks in a city where EVERYTHING is available with door to door delivery isn't so bad compared to their own country, especially with so much kids schooling and work from home now becoming normalised.

EDIT2: The cost for my family to visit our parents in Oz, $30,000 in air fares (as cheap as it gets these days) + $5000 in hotel with a minimum (its not a max) two weeks in a hotel of unknown standard, condition, size etc. At least as a family you get 1-2 bedroom, maybe.

Yeah, not going to happen. For our parents to come visit us, its similar airfare cost + minimum 3mths out of the country (govt rule) + two weeks in a hotel on return of unknown standard, size or condition and if you are just a couple its a standard room , yeah, not going to happen.
RTT_Rules
I am still amazed at how some commentators (I.E, those on Sky News) were saying at the time that we should opt to go down the Swedish route, imagine the carnage on this country had we done so.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I am still amazed at how some commentators (I.E, those on Sky News) were saying at the time that we should opt to go down the Swedish route, imagine the carnage on this country had we done so.
lsrailfan
Sween's solution was all good until it wasn't until you are digging graves for your own relatives, which is what started to happen, that's when the people said enough. 14,000 dead and no end in site to the infection in the country.

Unfortunately while I think many country's were slowly on the mend, UAE included with us hovering around 1900 new cases a day and trending down ever so slowly. India's outbreak seems to have stuffed everyone. UAE is now back over 2000 cases/day and hopefully stopped before it got out of control.

They shut the flights from India very quick. First it was you need PCR 48 h instead of 72 hr mid last week, which according to the Indian's basically meant no one could fly as it takes too long in most parts of India and then all stopped as of Sat.

Personally I think this out break in India driven by that mass gathering on the river in the north has screwed India with CV-19. They will be at 1m new cases per day by the end of this week and if not it will be simply due to the inability to process that many absolute carnage will follow. In a country where for 500 million people today's work pays for tomorrow's food, they don't have the ability to "lockdown".  Even the middle class live, commute and work in high density conditions.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Just on the Indian situation with COVID-19, they really are in dire straights over there, some hospitals have run out of oxygen completely, they are treating people in the back seats of cars, the reason for the surge in case numbers, is thought to be down to the massive attendance at some religious festivals in the country, a Carpark has been turned into a massive Crematorium, some here may have seen photos of it Sad, they are saying that the peak of the deaths may still be weeks away.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
'... massive attendance at some religious festivals ... '
Like 80,000 in each other's pockets at the AFL football.
A terrible risk ................
Money will buy you anything (even Covid) in Victoria.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

The Language of the PM has changed in recent weeks. I think I heard him say, "once everyone who wants the vaccine, has had the chance to get the vaccine, the border restrictions will start to ease." Clearly if you opt out, you are on your own and the country won't be held back for you.
RTT_Rules

It's preemptive victim blaming.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The Language of the PM has changed in recent weeks. I think I heard him say, "once everyone who wants the vaccine, has had the chance to get the vaccine, the border restrictions will start to ease." Clearly if you opt out, you are on your own and the country won't be held back for you.

It's preemptive victim blaming.
djf01
Not quite, reminding people not to make poor choices when the virus eventually arrives in the country full blown and the cry poor.
  doyle Chief Commissioner
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
"Scroto" is still well ahead of Albo according to today's Newspoll - preferred leader 52% to Albo's miserable 30%. Two party preferred puts the LNP slightly behind but then this was the position they were in before the 2019 election so really Labor are in big trouble having failed to make any headway whatsoever despite the various sex scandals, slow vaccination roll-out etc.

Albo should really be sacked, I just think he's far too (let's say) 'progressive' for the Labor Party - they need someone who can actually win an election by making some difficult compromises on 'climate change' and the woke agenda.
Not quite, reminding people not to make poor choices when the virus eventually arrives in the country full blown and the cry poor.
RTT_Rules

The virus isn't here, full-stop. And if we keep going with insisting that anyone from overseas must quarantine then yeah, it's extremely unlikely that we'll ever have a mass breakout here on the scale of overseas.

IN which case why bother getting vaccinated - especially if you're young and healthy. I read somewhere that 80% of US fatalities were people with weight and heart/respiratory/other serious conditions AND over 60 (but the median was more like 80). If your health is already compromised and you're senior then you've got a good chance of dying from a COVID19 infection.

My theory is that most healthy young Australians (under 30) won't bother with a COVID19 vaccination unless its forced upon them in some way.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
"Scroto" is still well ahead of Albo according to today's Newspoll - preferred leader 52% to Albo's miserable 30%. Two party preferred puts the LNP slightly behind but then this was the position they were in before the 2019 election so really Labor are in big trouble having failed to make any headway whatsoever despite the various sex scandals, slow vaccination roll-out etc.

Albo should really be sacked, I just think he's far too (let's say) 'progressive' for the Labor Party - they need someone who can actually win an election by making some difficult compromises on 'climate change' and the woke agenda.
Not quite, reminding people not to make poor choices when the virus eventually arrives in the country full blown and the cry poor.

The virus isn't here, full-stop. And if we keep going with insisting that anyone from overseas must quarantine then yeah, it's extremely unlikely that we'll ever have a mass breakout here on the scale of overseas.

IN which case why bother getting vaccinated - especially if you're young and healthy. I read somewhere that 80% of US fatalities were people with weight and heart/respiratory/other serious conditions AND over 60 (but the median was more like 80). If your health is already compromised and you're senior then you've got a good chance of dying from a COVID19 infection.

My theory is that most healthy young Australians (under 30) won't bother with a COVID19 vaccination unless its forced upon them in some way.
don_dunstan
I actually like Albo, but yes he hasn't delivered and his popularity is lagging the ALP's. ALP needs to take a left out of the LNP history page as well as there own and not risk going to an election with an unpopular leader.

Its not the people with poor lifestyle choices, its the ones born or chemo etc that I'm more concerned about, regardless of age. If this virus was just about robbing the departure lounge, this would be all over by now.

You make the vaccine available, then when everyone has had their chance to get jabbed with a 3mth buffer, open the borders for vaccinated people only and this includes Aussie's wanting to leave the country. Yes vaccinated people can still get and pass on the virus, but at a much lower rate and vaccinated people are very much unlikely to end up in ICU and less likely to die should they get sick with the virus. The country cannot live in a bubble indefinitely.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Its not the people with poor lifestyle choices, its the ones born or chemo etc that I'm more concerned about, regardless of age. If this virus was just about robbing the departure lounge, this would be all over by now.
RTT_Rules
Between the beginning of January 2020 and April 14, 2021, of 545,751 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 167,017 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older. If you are quite old then your chances of dying are greatly magnified compared to someone aged thirty and quite fit. Look even deeper and you'll see that people who are smokers and/or very overweight are most heavily represented among the dead in fact four out of five fatalities were overweight.

In Western countries with good resources its most definitely about clearing out God's waiting room. That's why I'm saying I don't think the young will give a damn about vaccinations - they are not the ones at risk.
You make the vaccine available, then when everyone has had their chance to get jabbed with a 3mth buffer, open the borders for vaccinated people only and this includes Aussie's wanting to leave the country. Yes vaccinated people can still get and pass on the virus, but at a much lower rate and vaccinated people are very much unlikely to end up in ICU and less likely to die should they get sick with the virus. The country cannot live in a bubble indefinitely.
RTT_Rules
Yes, in fact we can.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

I quite like Albo too, I don't think changing leadership will help, the ALP needs to attack these do nothing non accountable non responsible inept pathetic excuse of a government
The only vision this government has is to win the next election.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
I quite like Albo too, I don't think changing leadership will help, the ALP needs to attack these do nothing non accountable non responsible inept pathetic excuse of a government
The only vision this government has is to win the next election.
doyle
Whereas the ALP don't care about winning elections, they'd much rather be morally superior. Right?
  doyle Chief Commissioner

No Don this government and policy.. what policy... nope none what vision for Australia do they have... nothing zip
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Closer to the election, ALP policies will be announced toooo late for the lnp to steal or rubbish
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I quite like Albo too, I don't think changing leadership will help, the ALP needs to attack these do nothing non accountable non responsible inept pathetic excuse of a government
The only vision this government has is to win the next election.
Whereas the ALP don't care about winning elections, they'd much rather be morally superior. Right?
don_dunstan
I actually agree with Don for once, each way Albo is as weak as water, he is channelling shifty Shorten in so many ways it's not funny, the ALP needs a leadership change, and fast!
  doyle Chief Commissioner

pork-barrelling is not a substitute for policies.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
pork-barrelling is not a substitute for policies.
"doyle"
You wanna bet? "What's in it for me" is top of the charts at every election.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Well VG its a Clayton's policy.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Its not the people with poor lifestyle choices, its the ones born or chemo etc that I'm more concerned about, regardless of age. If this virus was just about robbing the departure lounge, this would be all over by now.
Between the beginning of January 2020 and April 14, 2021, of 545,751 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 167,017 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older. If you are quite old then your chances of dying are greatly magnified compared to someone aged thirty and quite fit. Look even deeper and you'll see that people who are smokers and/or very overweight are most heavily represented among the dead in fact four out of five fatalities were overweight.

In Western countries with good resources its most definitely about clearing out God's waiting room. That's why I'm saying I don't think the young will give a damn about vaccinations - they are not the ones at risk.
You make the vaccine available, then when everyone has had their chance to get jabbed with a 3mth buffer, open the borders for vaccinated people only and this includes Aussie's wanting to leave the country. Yes vaccinated people can still get and pass on the virus, but at a much lower rate and vaccinated people are very much unlikely to end up in ICU and less likely to die should they get sick with the virus. The country cannot live in a bubble indefinitely.
Yes, in fact we can.
don_dunstan
So what re you saying Don.

"F__k it, time to just get on  with it. CV-19 only kills thats who are un healthy or near the end anyway."

Or

"No we cannot open the borders because of CV-19"

pick a side?

This issue will come to a cross roads early 2022 as the Fed election comes into play. There are likely alot of Australian's who will want to travel by then and don't want to be locked up indefinitely.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
So what re you saying Don.

"F__k it, time to just get on  with it. CV-19 only kills thats who are un healthy or near the end anyway."

Or

"No we cannot open the borders because of CV-19"

pick a side?

This issue will come to a cross roads early 2022 as the Fed election comes into play. There are likely alot of Australian's who will want to travel by then and don't want to be locked up indefinitely.
RTT_Rules
I didn't say 'just get on with it' and kill everyone unhealthy. Where did I say that?

And you said Australia couldn't hide forever. I'm saying we've already been doing just that for 12 months and it could possibly go on for years. People have bought it to date, why wouldn't they go on buying it for years to come?

An election issue... yeah, nah.

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