The corona virus COVID-19

 
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
In addition to the five new cases announced yesterday evening, we have another six today, including one, possibly two, in aged care facilities.
Meanwhile ScoMo is glad handing his way in New Zealand, carefully leaving behind his promise to get aged care residents and workers vaccinated; something that should have been done months ago. I'm afraid that this callous disregard of people at great risk reminds me of Dickens' "A Christmas Carol" where the comment is made about "letting them die to reduce the surplus population."

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  ANR Chief Commissioner
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
I'm not even sure that quarantine facilities need to be in remote areas. When we had a dedicated Infectious Diseases Hospital in Melbourne, it was located in Yarra Bend Park - the building is still there but with different use since the Kennett slash and burn. It functioned very efficiently and kept proper control over infected patients so that nothing escaped.
The other thing is that if quarantine facilities are built in remote ares, who is going to staff them? They need specialists, and do they want to move to remote areas? I doubt it.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I'm not even sure that quarantine facilities need to be in remote areas. When we had a dedicated Infectious Diseases Hospital in Melbourne, it was located in Yarra Bend Park - the building is still there but with different use since the Kennett slash and burn. It functioned very efficiently and kept proper control over infected patients so that nothing escaped.
The other thing is that if quarantine facilities are built in remote ares, who is going to staff them? They need specialists, and do they want to move to remote areas? I doubt it.
Valvegear

The reason to do it, is so when there is an inevitable leak, a town of at most 50K gets shut down, not a state of 5mil.

That lessens the cost of lockdown, and makes politician less reluctant/slow to instigate them when they may be necessary, but could still be short.

Staff ... either drawn from or relocated to the supporting community on a permanent or semi-permanent basis.  Basically, if you work at, or in connection with the quarantine station, two weeks off work before you can leave town.

That community would need ongoing restrictions including  who can enter and leave, and when, in exchange for a huge chunk of Fed/State cash/economic development for the town.  It can't be so close that people commute daily from Melbourne.

Alternatively, fly in fly out, and workers serve a (presumably shorter) quarantine period at the start and end of their (at least) 14 days on.

Personally, I think we need a pre-HQ system at our dry air bases.  A tent city and a field hospital (plus medivac if needed) at Weipa and Learmonth.  All international flights land there (except bubble countries).

5-15 days there before even qualifying for 14 days in HQ.  Also, more use of home quarantine might be made available for lower incidence countries that don't qualify for a travel bubble (ie NOT the UAE !!), such as Vietnam and the former island of Formosa - at least as they were a month ago - they are now back to requiring full HQ.

For super high incidence countries (eg India now), maybe a Christmas Island facility, obviously everything there needs to fly in/fly out.  But prisons are terrible environments for COVID spread, so the staff would need to stay there while the quarantinees star at the disused casino.  2 weeks there before even qualifying for 2 weeks in Aussie HQ.

As I see it, HQ is current 99% effective, which is excellent really.  It's just too much to ask of it to be perfect. Also, it needs to be (at least) 99.9% to provide the protection we need (ie 10 times better), and *actually* 99.99% effective to increase our border flow 10 fold to a more tolerable level.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
The reason to do it, is so when there is an inevitable leak, a town of at most 50K gets shut down, not a state of 5mil.
"dfj01"
Please read carefully what I wrote. There were no leaks from Fairfield because it was a properly designed and operated infectious diseases facility. Leaks are not inevitable.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

The reason to do it, is so when there is an inevitable leak, a town of at most 50K gets shut down, not a state of 5mil.
Please read carefully what I wrote. There were no leaks from Fairfield because it was a properly designed and operated infectious diseases facility. Leaks are not inevitable.
Valvegear
For a change, I did actually read your post carefully.  But I deliberately skipped over that point.

I don't disagree that HQ could greatly improve, and a dedicated facility far preferable to a hotel.  I remain unconvinced it - or whatever replaces it - can be perfect, or even good enough.

My counter argument is in QLD, where they still have infectious diseases facilities (a section of Princess Alexandra Hospital, I just checked), where presumably everyone is properly trained and has all reasonable PPE.  In QLD they transfer COVID+ patients from HQ to PAH, but it has also leaked, at about the same rate as HQ.  

I don't think it has to be an either/or.  I am trying to argue that a regional location for any new dedicated facility is preferable to a capital city location for both efficacy, and dealing with failures.  The only reason to put it in a major city is convenience (ie cost).
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

I don't think it has to be an either/or.  I am trying to argue that a regional location for any new dedicated facility is preferable to a capital city location for both efficacy, and dealing with failures.  The only reason to put it in a major city is convenience (ie cost).
djf01
Which won't work as discussed before. Leakage from the hotel quarantine during the stay is only a minor issue, not the only issue.

Once again the solution is simple, replace the Victorian govt with an administration from NSW as the Vic's couldn't run a $hit show.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Leakage from the hotel quarantine during the stay is only a minor issue
RTT_Rules

I'm sure every Victorian on this forum agrees with that.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Leakage from the hotel quarantine during the stay is only a minor issue

I'm sure every Victorian on this forum agrees with that.
djf01
Yep, very much so. They need to ask themselves, why does this keep happening to us?

NSW, never stopped or curtailed returning expats and never closed its border to another state, never had a state wide lockdown.

NSW needs to field candidates in the upcoming state election to give the voters an alternative option.

I'd recommend a merger of the two states, but there is some stuff from the Mexicans NSW would prefer to not be associated with.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean
Once again the solution is simple, replace the Victorian govt with an administration from NSW as the Vic's couldn't run a $hit show.
RTT_Rules
What you're saying is if the bloke who brought the virus back from South Australia went to Sydney instead, there would be absolutely no outbreak of the disease there as a consequence.

Utter bollocks. There is no way that you could accurately predict what the outcome would have been. Sure, you can imagine a single scenario that fits your schema and makes you feel all warm and fuzzy, but that would be pure fantasy. For all you know the situation in Sydney could well have been worse, depending on where he went.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean
Leakage from the hotel quarantine during the stay is only a minor issue

I'm sure every Victorian on this forum agrees with that.
Yep, very much so. They need to ask themselves, why does this keep happening to us?

NSW, never stopped or curtailed returning expats and never closed its border to another state, never had a state wide lockdown.

NSW needs to field candidates in the upcoming state election to give the voters an alternative option.

I'd recommend a merger of the two states, but there is some stuff from the Mexicans NSW would prefer to not be associated with.
RTT_Rules
Again, it happened to Victoria because even though he was released from South Australia apparently clear of the virus, he wasn't, and he went to Melbourne, not your beloved NSW.

NSW didn't have to close its borders because the other states did instead. A perfect analogy would be that you never need to get the vaccine as long as everyone else does. Taking the easy way out.
  Nightfire Minister for Railways

Location: Gippsland
The Victorian Government bureaucracy just has a habit of bungling everything they touch and the have an army of spin doctors to talk their way out of any fault, blaming everyone else for their errors.
  wobert Chief Commissioner
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Read this

https://www.theage.com.au/national/fourth-time-s-a-charm-why-is-victoria-the-nation-s-lockdown-capital-20210527-p57vs5.html
wobert
Are people in Sydney less mobile than people in Melbourne? I am suspect if that is true to any significant degree.

I would be interested to know if Melbourne had a larger casualised and gig-economy labour force. It does seem that the outbreaks seem to center around more working class areas...basically people who keep going to work sick or work multiple jobs.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Why has this guy still not been fired
"doyle"
Because the idea of ministerial responsibility died under Howard and has never been resurrected.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Once again the solution is simple, replace the Victorian govt with an administration from NSW as the Vic's couldn't run a $hit show.
What you're saying is if the bloke who brought the virus back from South Australia went to Sydney instead, there would be absolutely no outbreak of the disease there as a consequence.

Utter bollocks. There is no way that you could accurately predict what the outcome would have been. Sure, you can imagine a single scenario that fits your schema and makes you feel all warm and fuzzy, but that would be pure fantasy. For all you know the situation in Sydney could well have been worse, depending on where he went.
DirtyBallast
Maybe, Sydney has taken in 5 x more people than Vic and a major destination for people arriving in Australia then going to other states.  

Why this person flew to Adelaide and not Melbourne? Why is it so hard to fly directly to Vic? Even in good times Adelaide only has about 5 or so international flights per day. What we know this is unlikely to happen to NSW as the numbers of people flying to other states to then enter NSW is almost zero, so they are at least managing their own house, Vic out sources and suffers accordingly.

How many lockdowns in Sydney and NSW? What number are we up to in Vic?

No, doesn't make me feel all warm and fuzzy that the Mexicans keep some how managing to F__k it up and there is certainly no fantasy about that.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Each time there's been an outbreak in Melbourne, a significant factor has been due to the type of work (very casual and mobile) and communication barriers for people from CALD (Culturally And Linguistically Diverse) backgrounds who contracted the virus.

The Northern Beaches outbreak in Sydney was managed quickly because of quick communication and the ability to lock down that area easily due to few roads and ferries in and out of that part of Sydney.

Not so much the fault of State Governments to be honest.

But I will say this - if rules are not relaxed in Regional Vic this week where there are ZERO cases, expect significant civil disobedience and more agitation for REXIT...  We are not going to tolerate it much longer.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Leakage from the hotel quarantine during the stay is only a minor issue

I'm sure every Victorian on this forum agrees with that.
Yep, very much so. They need to ask themselves, why does this keep happening to us?

NSW, never stopped or curtailed returning expats and never closed its border to another state, never had a state wide lockdown.

NSW needs to field candidates in the upcoming state election to give the voters an alternative option.

I'd recommend a merger of the two states, but there is some stuff from the Mexicans NSW would prefer to not be associated with.
Again, it happened to Victoria because even though he was released from South Australia apparently clear of the virus, he wasn't, and he went to Melbourne, not your beloved NSW.

NSW didn't have to close its borders because the other states did instead. A perfect analogy would be that you never need to get the vaccine as long as everyone else does. Taking the easy way out.
DirtyBallast
NSW is not my beloved.

NSW never closed its borders to the problems in other states. Meanwhile other states closed their borders to each other at the drop of a hat.

Don't treat this to mean I support fully open unrestricted movement, There needed to be some level of control but not the madness that went on.

I'm also curious on how this full border closure was managed along the Tweed area of the Qld border as there are side streets and suburbia literally spilling across the dotted line. Further inland there was also plenty of option to cross if not drive, simply walk across. What about the dirt tracks out near Tibooburra? Likewise the straight section of the NSW and Vic borders where there are numerous back roads.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Each time there's been an outbreak in Melbourne, a significant factor has been due to the type of work (very casual and mobile) and communication barriers for people from CALD (Culturally And Linguistically Diverse) backgrounds who contracted the virus.

The Northern Beaches outbreak in Sydney was managed quickly because of quick communication and the ability to lock down that area easily due to few roads and ferries in and out of that part of Sydney.

Not so much the fault of State Governments to be honest.

But I will say this - if rules are not relaxed in Regional Vic this week where there are ZERO cases, expect significant civil disobedience and more agitation for REXIT...  We are not going to tolerate it much longer.
Carnot



This is also part of my point, focusing on statewide for too long rather than ring fencing the area.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
The reason why the Northern Beaches lockdown was a huge success, is because there is basically one road in and one road out of that particular area in question, if that had of happened in a different part of Sydney which is more densely populated, you probably would have seen Sydney go into a lockdown, it's just chance that we got away without having a city wide lockdown in that instance.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Selective memory again. The Northern Beaches spread to Victoria (Smiling Buffalo Thai Restaurant, Black Rock). Victoria managed to contain it (it being summer), except for a little bit that was boomeranged to Bermagui.

It's winter in Victoria. The central heating's on.



PS: NSW's gold standard tracing system never found the source of the Northern Beaches.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Read this

https://www.theage.com.au/national/fourth-time-s-a-charm-why-is-victoria-the-nation-s-lockdown-capital-20210527-p57vs5.html
Are people in Sydney less mobile than people in Melbourne? I am suspect if that is true to any significant degree.

I would be interested to know if Melbourne had a larger casualised and gig-economy labour force. It does seem that the outbreaks seem to center around more working class areas...basically people who keep going to work sick or work multiple jobs.
Mr. Lane
I dunno the answer to your question, but these half dozen  differences no matter how infinitesimal the variation, seem to be enough to make a  larger difference with the final outcome.

I don't Know much about Sydney but I read several months ago that the Northern Beaches outbreak was able to be more easily contained because that area was more  isolated from the rest of the place. How much I don't know, but that seemed to be the general consensus at the time. The dread at the time was that it would have been a different story if it got away in Western Sydney.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

CALD (Culturally And Linguistically Diverse)
I love this one, I will never remember it though.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I think I just repeated what Israilfan and Kitchgp said, sorry about that.

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