The corona virus COVID-19

 
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Moral of the story, don't s h I t in your own nest or bring your own kettle to your motel room

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  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Polio is an unfair comparison, Polio spreads with much more difficulty, and our species has had literal thousands, possibly tens of thousands of years to begin an evolved response to the virus, fast spreading viruses new to our species are a much more difficult prospect.
Well Polio (I'm told by someone who used to work as a doctor) still spreads easily, easily enough that transmission elsewhere in the world wasn't eliminated until there was a vaccine.* Herd immunity has also been achieved to measles with another vaccine. Measles is also no longer endemic everywhere in the world and was considered a mild illness before there was a vaccine against it. Herd immunity to smallpox has also been achieved mostly through vaccination.
Certainly a higher vaccination uptake is needed to stop transmission of a faster spreading virus than one that spreads less easily but doesn't mean it can't be achieved. Let's wait and see what happens once there is near universal vaccination in many other countries. I do believe transmission among the fully vaccinated is rare.

I am not old enough to have been around, but I know for a near fact that when Salk and then Sabin produced a vaccine there was exactly zero people protesting their 'right' to not have the vaccine - quite the opposite, especially with Sabin's creation near everyone was queuing up for their little paddle pop stick of sugared liquid.
Firstly, one of the Polio vaccines is oral while all the current COVID-19 vaccines are given by a needle and a needle-phobe will understand what difference that makes. Secondly, you seem to be noting that vaccination against polio has never been a political issue.

One of the most disappointing things about the Taliban controlling Afghanistan is that we may never see what was formerly the looming end of Polio arrive until they're gone.
It is also still circulating in Pakistan.

*In fact polio spreads easily enough that swimming pools and movie theatres used to have to close during summer before a polio vaccine was found.
Myrtone
You need to do more reading - or at least take a closer look at what I wrote.

Polio DOES spread with much more difficulty than what aerosol/respiration viruses like COVID do. Polio is/was spread via ingestion of fecal coliform contaminated foods and drink, or via ingestion of an infected person's mucus.

What you speak of in terms of theatres and public pools being closed you need to understand that these almost exclusively occurred before it was understood what Polio was, and how it was spread. Polio used to be attributed to stray animals and imported fruits and foods. Today, yes, sure, the closing of public pools is absolutely rational at the height of the Polio peak, closing of cinemas, maybe not quite so.

If you missed your Australian issued Polio vaccination as a child and went to Afghanistan or Pakistan today and walked through their equivalent of a hardware store, even having MULTIPLE people infected with Polio walking around that same store ought cause you no concern, so long as you didn't ingest their poo or lick their snot.

That's not quite the same as COVID, where even if everyone was wearing a face mask, and you never directly sampled their bodily secretions, you would in fact be presumed to have the virus on exit of the store.

You should have noticed that I mentioned Salk and Sabin, that I named them might tell you I know a thing or two about them... Today, the Polio vaccination of choice is Sabin's oral vaccine, you might also have noticed that I mentioned the paddle pop stick of sugared liquid... BUT, again, the 'heavy lifting' toward the low risk of Polio experienced by us today came initially from Salk, which was very much in a needle...

The USA went from over 35 Polio cases per 100,000 in 1952 to 0.47 Polio cases per 100,000 in 1962 ahead of the introduction of Sabin's vaccine to the US in 1963, by 1965 Polio infection rates were 'in the noise' around 0. Data is hard to get from Australia, but 83% of children in NSW were vaccinated by Salk's vaccine ahead of the approval and introduction of Sabin's vaccine in 1966 - I don't think a fear of needles was really at play.

Polio is a special subject of mine, I urge you to read, or watch some documentaries on Salk and/or Sabin, and the 'March of Dimes', some of the most amazing public health work ever done.

Measles? That's a different prospect, measles is very contagious, and you're right, it's eliminated in many countries, including Australia, but the current vaccine was released in 1968, and measles was only eliminated in Australia in 2009, 40+ years is quite the wait. SHAMEFULLY, the US beat Australia to elimination, but in the late 1970s the US CDC said that they were going to eliminate measles in the first few years of the 1980s, and they got there in 2000, only 15-20 years later than expected - still, almost a whole decade before us, and we are an island.

Herd immunity to Smallpox? Not in Australia mate, likely not in any country. I don't think ANY country in the world routinely vaccinates for Smallpox today, or ever. Minor distinction, but since you seem to want to be all technical, Smallpox is regarded as near eradicated throughout the world, but not so much via vaccination as we know it today, but inoculation, AND not via 'herd immunity' but by 'ring immunity'. If you're some sort of 'needle-phobe' then the Smallpox vaccination is one you're really not going to want.


So to sum up, Smallpox, infecting humans for a minimum of three millennia, likely a lot longer, hence some evolutionary/genetic assistance probably available to us. Eradicated today, after 200 (give or take) years of inoculation/vaccination but with no 'herd immunity' likely anywhere in the world.

Polio, infecting humans for maybe 4 millennia, hence similar story to Smallpox. Near eradicated with 'herd immunity' likely existing in most of the world, 60 ish years after vaccine introduction, approximately 50 years required to eradicate in Australia. BTW, I am well aware that Pakistan has Polio, so too does Nigeria, my issue with Afghanistan if you read it, is that under Taliban rule vaccination rate for Polio will be reduced to 'Bronze Age' numbers of near zero. You might find that ironic if you understand what the word 'Taliban' actually means.

Measles, more than 1000 years old, now non endemic to most countries, 'herd immunity' levels alarmingly decreasing in some countries, maybe a 'minor illness' to you, unless you develop encephalitis... Vaccine of similar age to Polio Vaccines, so again 50 ish years of progress required to clear Australia of the disease.

The bulk of the 'heavy lifting' toward eradicating the above was done before rapid international and intercontinental travel was a thing, the spread for those (including measles) was relatively easy to contain.

Covid19, infecting humans for 18 ish months, we have exactly zero naturally acquired resistance to it, endemic right across the world, highly transportable, highly infectious, rapid spreading, vaccines about 6 months old - so take a stab when we will hit eradication. At this point, even containment in the short term is closer to impossible than possible.
  303gunner Train Controller

If the quarantine arrangements had been better then the vaccine rollout would not have been as urgent now, simple as that.
BrentonGolding
That's the attitude in WA at the moment, while the border stays closed and they have no cases: "It's not a race". Very slow uptake of Vaccine. But the vaccine rate IS urgent, regardless of the current rate of cases.

Of course it's not a race, until all of a sudden it is. First dodgy truck driver, Aircrew or escapee from Quarantine, and all of a sudden they wish vaccination rates were much higher and that they had acted sooner. One lesson to be gained from the Eastern States is that outbreaks don't happen at the time you expect them to, they happen when you don't expect them and you're never prepared enough.

They need to use this "Quiet time" not to relax, but to get that Vaccination rate much higher while they have the luxury of choice.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
A bit thank you to Aaron for a very readable and convincing explanation. I ran it past my wife, who has spent 30 years working in serology, and she said 'yes, that's correct'. Only one question, is it ring immunity or ring vaccination ?
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD?
"RTT_Rules"
Short answer; ventilation and no adjoining balconies.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

80 new cases in Vic. 20000 locked up in Shepparton for two weeks with food running out and deliveries not happening...
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting article from the BBC about the development of natural resistance to COVID19 in the community and the use of vaccines:

There are marked differences in your immune system after a natural infection with coronavirus and after vaccination.

Which is better?

Even asking the question bordered on heresy a year ago, when catching Covid for the first time could be deadly, especially for the elderly or people already in poor health.

Now, we're no longer starting with zero immunity as the overwhelming majority of people have either been vaccinated or have already caught the virus.

It is now a serious question that has implications for whether children should ever be vaccinated. And whether we use the virus or booster shots to top up immunity in adults. Both have become contentious issues.

"We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh, told me.

One of the conclusions that the Professor makes is that it's probably not a good idea to vaccinate children as they seldom get sick from COVID19 and they're better off developing natural antibodies to the virus anyway.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
A bit thank you to Aaron for a very readable and convincing explanation. I ran it past my wife, who has spent 30 years working in serology, and she said 'yes, that's correct'. Only one question, is it ring immunity or ring vaccination ?
billybaxter
Sorry, yes, ring vaccination is probably a better term. You have a case and rather than trying to vaccinate an entire country you vaccinate all the likely contacts in a ring around the outbreak, I guess providing a 'ring of immunity' is what I was saying.

It works well in locations like Africa, Afghanistan (formerly) with remoter communities who have little or even no contact with neighbouring communities, especially with a virus like Polio which basically relies on the ingestion of poo or snot. You vaccinate and isolate the one, vaccinate the ring around them and teach good handwashing practice and the virus goes nowhere.

It's not going to help us in Australia where won't, or cannot stay home, and the virus is aerosol spread, because by the time I test positive for the virus, my wife and people at my work and supermarkets I visit probably have it to so vaccinating a ring around me, and then each of my contacts, and each of their contacts is going to be quite an undertaking all over much of Adelaide. Particularly my work colleagues the maybe 30 people I work really closely with likely don't share a postcode between us.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Interesting article from the BBC about the development of natural resistance to COVID19 in the community and the use of vaccines:

There are marked differences in your immune system after a natural infection with coronavirus and after vaccination.

Which is better?

Even asking the question bordered on heresy a year ago, when catching Covid for the first time could be deadly, especially for the elderly or people already in poor health.

Now, we're no longer starting with zero immunity as the overwhelming majority of people have either been vaccinated or have already caught the virus.

It is now a serious question that has implications for whether children should ever be vaccinated. And whether we use the virus or booster shots to top up immunity in adults. Both have become contentious issues.

"We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh, told me.

One of the conclusions that the Professor makes is that it's probably not a good idea to vaccinate children as they seldom get sick from COVID19 and they're better off developing natural antibodies to the virus anyway.
don_dunstan
Prof Riley needs to go and tell her views to the families in Brazil and Indonesia, and probably some other places that have all lost large numbers of children to COVID.

In the UK Coronavirus has killed about 2 per million children with the infection, about 1 in 50,000 young infections result in being admitted to ICU. They're quite low figures, relatively low risk - I agree. Go and have that discussion with the families and friends of the 25 children who died in just the first year of COVID in the UK and tell them that 'You're sorry their child/friend is no longer with them, but because the other 12,499,975 infected children survived, with only 225 of those needing to attend the ICU that their child didn't need to the best possible chance of avoiding the virus in the first place'.

That 'only' 250 young people out of 12.5 million infections needed serious hospitalisation, and of those 250 only about 25 died sounds pretty compelling that vaccination of them isn't required - until you need to explain that to those left behind by the 25 in particular.

Statistics can be nasty pieces of work, I use them every day and I love them, but you also have to remember what that statistical data is generated from - in this case, to make it really blunt, they come from dead young people - think about what that actually means.
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
One of the conclusions that the Professor makes is that it's probably not a good idea to vaccinate children as they seldom get sick from COVID19 and they're better off developing natural antibodies to the virus anyway.
don_dunstan
Vaccinating children as well as adults could well help eliminate community transmission in countries with a high enough vaccine uptake. If adults are vaccinated and children aren't, then the virus will just keep circulating among children. Some countries are already vaccinating children. Remember, measles used to be considered a mild illness (get severely ill from it was apparently quite rare) and we vaccinate people against that.
We should definitely try and achieve herd immunity just as we have done with other vaccines before. Can we reach 99,990 people out of every 100,000 vaccinated? Herd immunity could either be achieved with the current generation of vaccines or if not the next one.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
New South Wales reported 1,029 new COVID-19 cases and three deaths on Thursday. Earlier this week the state hit the milestone of six million vaccinations administered, with new freedoms for fully vaccinated residents to be in place from September 13. Following a record-high daily increase in cases, Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced that the state's regional lockdown will be extended until midnight on Friday, September 10.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
'... Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD? ...'
Everything.
Fresh air for a start.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
An admission from a UK (?) study today that both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are effective for only about six months.

We need to be planning for third shots long before half the population have had anything more than an initial vaccination.
  GrahamH Chief Commissioner

Location: At a terminal on the www.
NSW, over 1000 new cases, Gladys is still Premier???

Get a LEADER NSW!
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

NSW, over 1000 new cases, Gladys is still Premier???

Get a LEADER NSW!
GrahamH
Gladys is just getting warmed up, wait a week.
Changing leaders now would have what benefits?
And who’d actually want that poisoned chalice?
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
'... Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD? ...'
Everything.
Fresh air for a start.
YM-Mundrabilla
And the Qld government agrees with you

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-26/covd-qld-wellcamp-toowoomba-regional-quarantine-facility/100403692
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Can we reach 99,990 people out of every 100,000 vaccinated?
Myrtone
No.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

What would in your opinion be the highest Vax rate in Australia for covid 19 shots
  303gunner Train Controller

'... Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD? ...'
Everything.
Fresh air for a start.
And the Qld government agrees with you

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-26/covd-qld-wellcamp-toowoomba-regional-quarantine-facility/100403692
BrentonGolding
I know Wellcamp was set up a few years ago to be a private freight exporting airport long before Covid came around, but the name "Wellcamp" for a Covid Quarantine facility has a sinister Big Brother/1984/Newspeak ring to it that just gives me the heebies.
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
'... Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD? ...'
Everything.
Fresh air for a start.
YM-Mundrabilla
Indeed but Howard Springs has apparently had less people through it than hotels in states and it's main intake has apparently been repatriation flights.

Can we reach 99,990 people out of every 100,000 vaccinated?
No.
Aaron
Haven't we already reached such a high uptake of other vaccines mentioned in the past?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD?
Short answer; ventilation and no adjoining balconies.
Valvegear
So you think having peopl mix in a open compound is less transmittable than AC or adjoinig balconies's? Riiight! Best leave the decisio makig on this to the right people.

NZ has managed open air excercise from hotels for 15 months. IF you are single or couple, its often in the car park. If family its in an open foot ball oval, both fenced off taken daily by bus.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
'... Whats the difference between Howard Springs and a hotel in the CBD? ...'
Everything.
Fresh air for a start.
YM-Mundrabilla
The only reason fresh air is denied in the hotel because of choice of hotel and stupid rules. NZ has had fresh air for its iso people for 15 months in city hotels.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

One of the conclusions that the Professor makes is that it's probably not a good idea to vaccinate children as they seldom get sick from COVID19 and they're better off developing natural antibodies to the virus anyway.
Can we reach 99,990 people out of every 100,000 vaccinated? Herd immunity could either be achieved with the current generation of vaccines or if not the next one.
Myrtone
You are as hellbent on 99.99% vaccination as you are on 99.99% pedestrian level crossing removals.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
NSW, over 1000 new cases, Gladys is still Premier???

Get a LEADER NSW!
Gladys is just getting warmed up, wait a week.
Changing leaders now would have what benefits?
And who’d actually want that poisoned chalice?
michaelgm
Yes, Last year when Vic F'ed up, again! here were calls to sack Dan. Wrong time to sack Dan and wrong time to sack Gladys.

ironically its those who DIDN"T vote for Gladys last time are the majority of the ones that are causing the rapid spread of the outbreak this time. So perhaps if the people who lean left actually did the right thing in Sydey then this would have been resolved weeks ago.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Can't see any incumbent governments losing their next elections. Even Morrison is polling well.

It is very hard for oppositions to cut through in times of crisis.

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