The China Problem

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:40
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

I have been watching these guys on Youtube for many years. They have this channel, but also their own separate channels. For many years they were pro-China and set up their lives there and married Chinese women. They said the high point was the 2008 Olympic Games. Once Xi got into power they were initially optimistic, but gradually their opinions started to change as China started to become more authoritarian rather than be the new economic frontier it was previously.

They noted that under Xi there was an increasing campaign of nationalism and the CCP increasingly began publicly blaming foreigners for any of Chinas internal woes. Furthermore the CCP has made the CCP, Chinese national identity and the Han ethnicity inseparable, so you cannot criticize one without offense to the other.

The CCP now actively promotes the Han ethnicity as the superior ethnicity and other minority groups try to make themselves "more Han" as they feel inferior for not being Han. The opposite of the West where every little group wants it's special identity.

Increasingly they were not allowed to enter some business such as restaurants as the owners outright didn't allow foreigners to enter anymore.

Black people in China especially are told to wait outside of certain establishments whilst their white friends can go in. Because one of the guys is South African, there is increased scrutiny of him as people assume he will be black. At one point he was outright lynched.

Eventually they started getting followed and denied access to parts of China as their reporting became less favorable, then outright banned from various provinces. They got into trouble for flying a drone in a public area and the authorities started outright harassing them. Eventually they had to skip into Hong Kong for refuge...but then Hong Kong was no longer safe either and then skipped over to Taiwan.

When leaving they were stopped and questioned and asked if they were returning...they wanted them to return as they most likely had intentions of detaining them in the future.



https://youtu.be/jtizfQXfFn8

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  Carnot Minister for Railways

I suspect China is at a significant crossroads.  Either they go the way of 1930s Germany and into a devastating World War, or among the current upheaval of energy and economic crises do a USSR circa 1991...

They seem to be playing a game of "Let's see how we can disrupt the West" with its psychological warfare and trade disputes at present.
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

I have been watching these guys on Youtube for many years. They have this channel, but also their own separate channels. For many years they were pro-China and set up their lives there and married Chinese women. They said the high point was the 2008 Olympic Games. Once Xi got into power they were initially optimistic, but gradually their opinions started to change as China started to become more authoritarian rather than be the new economic frontier it was previously.

They noted that under Xi there was an increasing campaign of nationalism and the CCP increasingly began publicly blaming foreigners for any of Chinas internal woes. Furthermore the CCP has made the CCP, Chinese national identity and the Han ethnicity inseparable, so you cannot criticize one without offense to the other.

The CCP now actively promotes the Han ethnicity as the superior ethnicity and other minority groups try to make themselves "more Han" as they feel inferior for not being Han. The opposite of the West where every little group wants it's special identity.

Increasingly they were not allowed to enter some business such as restaurants as the owners outright didn't allow foreigners to enter anymore.

Black people in China especially are told to wait outside of certain establishments whilst their white friends can go in. Because one of the guys is South African, there is increased scrutiny of him as people assume he will be black. At one point he was outright lynched.

Eventually they started getting followed and denied access to parts of China as their reporting became less favorable, then outright banned from various provinces. They got into trouble for flying a drone in a public area and the authorities started outright harassing them. Eventually they had to skip into Hong Kong for refuge...but then Hong Kong was no longer safe either and then skipped over to Taiwan.

When leaving they were stopped and questioned and asked if they were returning...they wanted them to return as they most likely had intentions of detaining them in the future.



https://youtu.be/jtizfQXfFn8
Mr. Lane
Their latest video on the Evergrande situation is quite interesting, but also not surprising.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
India has bought much of the coal that China refused to buy.

Incidentally, LNG prices are soaring. $30+ per million BTUs which is equivalent to US$200 per barrel of oil... (Korea and Japan being the main drivers of demand)
Carnot
Own goal or what?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-06/china-turns-to-stranded-australian-coal-to-combat-power-crun/100518440

I just hope that when China comes back into the market for some of the black-banned goods and commodities our suppliers have the balls to give a polite no thanks in reply.

There is far too much political risk involved now in selling things like coal to China. Wine is a bit of a different story having struggled to find a home for quite a bit of stock and having to drop prices accordingly but internationally traded goods such as Barley and Coal are traded globally and prices set accordingly

But I fear that as soon as they lift the bans we will go cap in hand once more to the Chinese and not reward those countries who have come to our rescue in the last 12 months or so
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
A message is being sent to the ‘Tibetan Republic of West Taiwan’.

The HMS Queen Elizabeth, Carl Vinson,  Ronald Reagan and their associated carrier strike groups are sailing with a Japanese carrier strike group and even a ship from New Zealand (they found one!) to the north of the Philippines.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

India has bought much of the coal that China refused to buy.

Incidentally, LNG prices are soaring. $30+ per million BTUs which is equivalent to US$200 per barrel of oil... (Korea and Japan being the main drivers of demand)
Own goal or what?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-06/china-turns-to-stranded-australian-coal-to-combat-power-crun/100518440

I just hope that when China comes back into the market for some of the black-banned goods and commodities our suppliers have the balls to give a polite no thanks in reply.

There is far too much political risk involved now in selling things like coal to China. Wine is a bit of a different story having struggled to find a home for quite a bit of stock and having to drop prices accordingly but internationally traded goods such as Barley and Coal are traded globally and prices set accordingly

But I fear that as soon as they lift the bans we will go cap in hand once more to the Chinese and not reward those countries who have come to our rescue in the last 12 months or so
BrentonGolding
At least our wine won't power their industrial-military complex like coal and iron ore does...
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
A message is being sent to the ‘Tibetan Republic of West Taiwan’.

The HMS Queen Elizabeth, Carl Vinson,  Ronald Reagan and their associated carrier strike groups are sailing with a Japanese carrier strike group and even a ship from New Zealand (they found one!) to the north of the Philippines.
Aaron
Is that a faint drumming sound I can hear? And is it getting a little louder by the day?
  Carnot Minister for Railways
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
WA may as well secede and become the next province of China.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-01/perth-china-mcgowan-consul-general-forrest-trade-aukus-business/100502212
Carnot
If I were a WA barley or wine producer I'd be pretty unimpressed with that forlock-tugging from my premier
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
And another own goal

Cotton farmers also doing well despite the China ban having found new markets for their bumper crop

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-09/cotton-prices-soar-for-australian-growers/100520118

With water storages pretty much chockers Australian Cotton farmers are confidently forward selling some of next years crop at prices not seen since 2011

Meanwhile China's cotton crop is predicted to be below expectations along with India and Brazil meaning that the Chinese may struggle to find enough supply or at least have to pay a premium to get it
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Tony Abbott called out China the other day in Taiwan, I agree with him for once on this one, he said that they were bullies in the region, he expressed solidarity for Taiwan, who are under increasing pressure from China, also he mentioned the detaining of some of the Uyghur's in China. - ‘Chewing gum on China’s boot’: Tony Abbott’s delivers provocative speech at Taiwan forum 7NEWS
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Tony Abbott called out China the other day in Taiwan, I agree with him for once on this one, he said that they were bullies in the region, he expressed solidarity for Taiwan, who are under increasing pressure from China, also he mentioned the detaining of some of the Uyghur's in China. - ‘Chewing gum on China’s boot’: Tony Abbott’s delivers provocative speech at Taiwan forum 7NEWS
lsrailfan
For once I'm in agreement with you - and Tony Abbott. International waters need to be kept open, the threats to make the South China Sea sovereign territory are a bit like the annexation of Austria etc., seeing what the rest of the world is willing to put up with. People who say that its unreasonable or 'banging the drums of war' to conduct these freedom of movement exercises don't seem to appreciate what the purpose of building those islands on coral atolls really was -

China really should follow the time-honoured path of setting up military bases in 'friendly' countries like Pakistan, Iran, North Korea etc etc. That's what the Americans would do - and there would bugger all anyone could legitimately do about that.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
China and DPRK are not that close, China assists DPRK with some things - mostly food aid, because it knows that if it doesn’t, a famine and humanitarian collapse will see China inundated with DPRK refugees.

Pakistan is also not really that friendly with China. Sensibly, Pakistan is slowly turning to closer ties with India and the west, Iran is similar, but to a lesser extent. Remember, both of these are predominantly Islamic populations, they are not strict fans of China when it comes to the Uyghur treatment.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
China and DPRK are not that close, China assists DPRK with some things - mostly food aid, because it knows that if it doesn’t, a famine and humanitarian collapse will see China inundated with DPRK refugees.
Aaron
Is there still (or was there ever?!?) a buffer zone reasoning behind China's propping up of the DPRK? I always thought their plan was to maintain a distance between mainland China and South Korea
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
China and DPRK are not that close, China assists DPRK with some things - mostly food aid, because it knows that if it doesn’t, a famine and humanitarian collapse will see China inundated with DPRK refugees.

Pakistan is also not really that friendly with China. Sensibly, Pakistan is slowly turning to closer ties with India and the west, Iran is similar, but to a lesser extent. Remember, both of these are predominantly Islamic populations, they are not strict fans of China when it comes to the Uyghur treatment.
Aaron
Yeah that's all basically correct but China does use money as a form of coercion - look at how they put Sri Lanka into debt building a new port and then subsequently had leverage over their government via that asset they constructed and kept for themselves. They simply buy the influence that they need.

I can't be bothered looking for the link now but the Arab world had an opportunity to condemn China's treatment of the Uyghurs at the UN via a resolution a while back and instead they said nothing - testimony to the power of the Chinese government and their money.
  qredge Deputy Commissioner

Location: Marsden Qld
Fears are growing that Beijing’s ban on Australian coal may remain in place for several years with 15 ships carrying $440m of supplies from Queensland mines remaining stranded off the coast of China, a year after the trade stand-off first began.

Beijing in January instructed owners of the banned Australian coal to find new buyers outside of China, as Xi Jinping’s administration scuttled the $14bn export trade and ramped up pressure on the Morrison government.
Between five to seven vessels carrying Australian coal have been discharged each month but the supplies remain stored in bonded areas and have not been released through customs, sources told The Australian.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-coal-ban-may-stay-for-years-says-goldman-sachs/news-story/ed99b64c6c783fc50e879812e2c2b6ff
Will be interesting to uncover the truth of it someday.

Originally there were 50+ ships stranded. Not allowed to unload, not allowed to leave and sell elsewhere.

"Only" 15 left suggests that approx 40 ships worth of coal are now sitting in "bonded areas".

Usually "bonded" means not yet paid for, yet incurring storage fees.
And that is a massive mountain to look after.
And China were freezing their proverbials off with power blackouts (courtesy coal shortage)

Any bets that the "bonded areas" are inside hungry furnaces.  Win win for Xi Jiping. Free fuel and imposing hostage fees.

Do the released ships' owners have the balls to refuse any further trips to China, irrespective of the supplier country.

cheers
John
justarider
Actually all coal is paid for by end user before being loaded onto ships in Australia so all the ships waiting to be unloaded are costing the Chinese users demurrage fees.  Xi-Ping is hurting his own country not Australia
The Chinese company is hurting twice as has paId for coal not allowed to use and has to then buy more expensiVe replacement to actually use.  
Explains why now blackouts all over NE China!
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
China and DPRK are not that close, China assists DPRK with some things - mostly food aid, because it knows that if it doesn’t, a famine and humanitarian collapse will see China inundated with DPRK refugees.
Is there still (or was there ever?!?) a buffer zone reasoning behind China's propping up of the DPRK? I always thought their plan was to maintain a distance between mainland China and South Korea
BrentonGolding
China might think they’re doing that, or say they’re doing that, but the reality is, even with US/NATO/Japanese backing ROK, or even a wholly united Korean Peninsula, is not invading China - then, now or ever.

If anything, and I don’t believe this either, China is maintaining DPRK’s independence so that one day China can use DPRK as an entry point to ROK.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
China and DPRK are not that close, China assists DPRK with some things - mostly food aid, because it knows that if it doesn’t, a famine and humanitarian collapse will see China inundated with DPRK refugees.

Pakistan is also not really that friendly with China. Sensibly, Pakistan is slowly turning to closer ties with India and the west, Iran is similar, but to a lesser extent. Remember, both of these are predominantly Islamic populations, they are not strict fans of China when it comes to the Uyghur treatment.
Yeah that's all basically correct but China does use money as a form of coercion - look at how they put Sri Lanka into debt building a new port and then subsequently had leverage over their government via that asset they constructed and kept for themselves. They simply buy the influence that they need.

I can't be bothered looking for the link now but the Arab world had an opportunity to condemn China's treatment of the Uyghurs at the UN via a resolution a while back and instead they said nothing - testimony to the power of the Chinese government and their money.
don_dunstan
That’s not unusual, the Arab world cannot even make decent statements against what we are told to believe are fringe elements, of the Islamic world, the Arab nations don’t say much in general, let alone against other countries.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Where are the British?. . . "Send a gunboat.!"
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
The Wall Street Journal is saying today that the total estimate of liabilities for China's property developers is US $5 trillion and that the waves of defaults is going to cause enormous problems for bond markets across the globe.

The problems haven't even really started yet.
  Carnot Minister for Railways
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Orbital Hypersonic missiles anyone?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/17/china-tested-new-space-capability-with-hypersonic-missile-report
Carnot
Some have suggested that this is not necessarily a nuclear strike capability, because they already have that, but rather a global anti-shipping capability. Such a system could theoretically be used to let missiles loiter in orbit but then drive down on ships anywhere in the world prior to an attack on Taiwan.

Essential China could try and wipe out the whole US Navy just prior to an attack on Taiwan. All theoretical at this point.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Orbital Hypersonic missiles anyone?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/17/china-tested-new-space-capability-with-hypersonic-missile-report
Some have suggested that this is not necessarily a nuclear strike capability, because they already have that, but rather a global anti-shipping capability. Such a system could theoretically be used to let missiles loiter in orbit but then drive down on ships anywhere in the world prior to an attack on Taiwan.

Essential China could try and wipe out the whole US Navy just prior to an attack on Taiwan. All theoretical at this point.
Mr. Lane
Also quite effective on highly fortified airbases in the Pacific, and military installations elsewhere (i.e. Pine Gap).
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
China might have a hypersonic missile that can go into sub-orbit and circle the globe a few times before launching nukes at chosen targets - but WE have windmills and solar panels that makes us a 'renewable energy super-power'.

Beat that, China!
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Power shortage in China? No worries, we'll curtail 80% of the world's Magnesium production and take down the global automotive industry in the process....

https://jalopnik.com/the-car-shortage-is-about-to-get-a-whole-lot-worse-1847892481

A convenient way to get back at the West. And prove that we were idiots for getting China to make nearly everything.

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