Russia vs. Ukraine - Potential War?

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:36
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Apparently Russia is assembling armed units to invade Ukraine:


Something to keep an eye on.  Worth noting that Ukraine is downright corrupt and Russia is increasingly despotic.

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  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
This has been on continuance for a long time; Russia has already reclaimed the Crimea and installed the infrastructure to ensure their continued presence. The proxy war in the Donets region continues with effective Russian control through 'rebel' government. Remember the down KLM flight? All about this. The Russians won't enter, they are brutal but like the correct image so they are just telling the Ukraine Government to steer clear of these Ukrainian territories now under Russian proxy control. The Russians will not retake Kiev in the future of our vision, the Ukrainians have great hatred of the Russian master, and good reason from experience for this. But Kiev is home of original Russian nation so the Putin Ultra nationalists are motivated.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The other motivation for Russia is that Ukraine's President is a (very popular) TV comedian who is keen for his country to join the EU.

Moscow is not amused.

Worth keeping an eye on the Belorussia - Poland situation too.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Lukashenka should be careful with what he does on the border of the EU, he won’t be picking a fight only with Poland (a fight he probably could not win) but wider Europe if he encourages refugees to try and cross the border; Lithuania would be ever worse for him, forget Europe, they’re a NATO country - that bring the big guns onside.

For what it’s worth, my wife’s family and friends are calling Lukashenka’s actions a storm in a teacup (well the Polish equivalent of that saying anyway) and they think he will back down anyway.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
The threat to cut the gas is of no consequence. Sabre rattling. Certainly the EU need that Russian gas, but Russia needs that EU money too. Russia can't go too far with this threat for fear of sending the EU elsewhere for want of reliable energy supplier.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Putin says he'll honor the gas contracts this European winter.

I suspect that Putin is testing Biden to gauge his reaction to a Ukraine invasion.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
As I thought. BBC News - Belarus-Poland border: Putin warns Belarus over gas threat to EU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59274351
And these anti-vaxxer idiots who compare now Victoria with Nazi era government shoul be obliged to view this excellent Bielorus film https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Come_and_See
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Putin says he'll honor the gas contracts this European winter.

I suspect that Putin is testing Biden to gauge his reaction to a Ukraine invasion.
Carnot
The good old saying "Dont smeg with the money". Russia is oil and gas reliant so they'll happily yank Belarus' chain to keep the money flowing.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Way back when the watermelon coalition opened Australia’s borders to all and sundry claiming ‘refugee status’ and the LNP set about closing them again - Europe was trying to be quite critical of Australia for not allowing anyone to enter without demonstrable, and legal cause.

Poland and Hungary were the only two dissenting voices in the EU that supported Australia in our efforts to avoid illegal migration.

I remember reading Polish language news with one particular headline reading ‘The answer to the question of refugee problems is laws like Australia’s’ - more recently, and admittedly a little ironically, Andrzej Duda said words to the effect on of *Australia is one of the World’s last reserves in of democracy* before effectively buying an election win.

For what it’s worth, my trip to Europe is booked for next year, January to the north east of Poland, with side trips east to Minsk via Lida and Białystok - hopefully I will get a Ukraine visit in this time too. That despite the AU government saying do not go within 3km of the Polish Belorussian border; or on the Belorussian side, do not approach the borders with Poland or Lithuania.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Another important piece of the puzzle:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/business/germany-russia-gas-nord-stream/index.html

Big move by the Germans to not open Nord Stream 2 pipeline...
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Plausible:
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Within a month? Russia wouldn’t telegraph their intentions that far in advance.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Meanwhile:
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Within a month? Russia wouldn’t telegraph their intentions that far in advance.
Aaron
Putin is all bluster and BS. He won't invade the Ukraine anytime soon and his posturing is all for local consumption. His run down forces couldn't go 2 rounds with a revolving door.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Within a month? Russia wouldn’t telegraph their intentions that far in advance.
Aaron
The willingness to throw away both tactical surprise and strategic surprise is a solid pointer towards this 'crisis' being either for domestic consumption or an attempt to make strategic gains that will pay dividends laster on.

I would suggest it's more than the former than the latter. Putin was a basic thug who topped out at lieutenant-colonel in the KGB, not a strategic big noter.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

It's worth reading up on Russian history going back over 1000 years.  It goes a long way to understanding the motivation behind Putin's intentions.  

I'm not sure how this one is going to be de-escalated.  Putin's not exactly predictable.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

NATO falling apart, stock market crash, Ukraine war...
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
I'm quite sure Mr. Putin has not topped out as Lieutenant general in KGB. President of Russian Federation is more senior position. He is just consolidating Russia proxy control in Donets. It's Russophone region. Only trouble making Stalin maps give it Ukraine.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

USA is ordering families of their Embassy staff out of Ukraine:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-24/us-orders-families-of-staff-to-leave-ukraine/100777124

Putin intends to put a Moscow-friendly parliament in power.  I doubt they'll be an military intervention by NATO - they would be mad to do so.  Probably lots of sanctions though, which Russia will respond to by cutting off gas supplies to Europe.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
This sabre rattling concerns me for a very important reason.  If this does go off will China see the opportunity to become more aggressive in the South China Sea?
  Carnot Minister for Railways
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
This sabre rattling concerns me for a very important reason.  If this does go off will China see the opportunity to become more aggressive in the South China Sea?
bevans
After the winter Olympics, I think China will take their cue from Russia to tell the West to get stuffed.
  james.au Minister for Railways

Location: Sydney, NSW
Looking at flightradar24.com there looks to be a lot of major airline avoidance of the Ukraine area (esp the east).  Singapore flying well to the east of the conflict zone and even avoiding Belarus.  Coming int Europe via the Baltics.  Also Aeroflot looks to be avoiding Ukraine altogether....  

They know something is up.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Looking at flightradar24.com there looks to be a lot of major airline avoidance of the Ukraine area (esp the east).  Singapore flying well to the east of the conflict zone and even avoiding Belarus.  Coming int Europe via the Baltics.  Also Aeroflot looks to be avoiding Ukraine altogether....  

They know something is up.
james.au
Nothing new there.

Most Western airlines have been avoiding Ukraine ever since MH17 and most Western airlines have been avoiding Belarus since FR4978
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Remember the down KLM flight? All about this.
billybaxter
Malaysian Airlines with lots of Dutch on board.

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