Something to keep an eye on. Worth noting that Ukraine is downright corrupt and Russia is increasingly despotic.
Putin says he'll honor the gas contracts this European winter.The good old saying "Dont smeg with the money". Russia is oil and gas reliant so they'll happily yank Belarus' chain to keep the money flowing.
I suspect that Putin is testing Biden to gauge his reaction to a Ukraine invasion.
Within a month? Russia wouldn’t telegraph their intentions that far in advance.The willingness to throw away both tactical surprise and strategic surprise is a solid pointer towards this 'crisis' being either for domestic consumption or an attempt to make strategic gains that will pay dividends laster on.
Looking at flightradar24.com there looks to be a lot of major airline avoidance of the Ukraine area (esp the east). Singapore flying well to the east of the conflict zone and even avoiding Belarus. Coming int Europe via the Baltics. Also Aeroflot looks to be avoiding Ukraine altogether....Nothing new there.
They know something is up.