The 'renewable' energy thread -

 
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia

A huge amount of power making me think about how this will be found in renewables?It already has.
DirtyBallast

So there is now a safe margin with the coal station going?

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  Carnot Minister for Railways


A huge amount of power making me think about how this will be found in renewables?It already has.
So there is now a safe margin with the coal station going?
bevans
Given how idle most of the wind turbines have been in Vic this past 6 months (due to supply exceeded demand), there should be margin most of the time.

Add some decent battery and pumped-hydro peaking supply in the evenings, and you're pretty much ok.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud

A huge amount of power making me think about how this will be found in renewables?It already has.
So there is now a safe margin with the coal station going?
bevans
We are on the verge of blackouts across the eastern seaboard as it is - all we need is Liddell to close on top of the second last Latrobe Valley generator and we'll be really quite vulnerable during times of 'wind drought'.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean

We are on the verge of blackouts across the eastern seaboard as it is -
don_dunstan
Here we go again.

We'll all be ROONED! Said Hanrahan.

Keep your eye on listings for grass yurts, everyone!

In the meantime, luddites like Don want to go back in time...maybe to when the Dutch used windmills to enable their industries to thrive from 800 years ago?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean

A huge amount of power making me think about how this will be found in renewables?It already has.
So there is now a safe margin with the coal station going?
bevans
What you need to realise is that while you haven't been looking, renewables have actually happened. It is already 1/3 of the mix.

IMHO Yallourn PS will close sooner than 2028. There is speculation that it will be totally unprofitable from 2025, so why should the owners persist?

Interesting to note that the average wholesale price for electricity in Victoria is $24 per MW/h this month compared to $70 per MW/h at the same time last year. Obviously, such a simple comparison cannot be extrapolated, but the trend is clear and cannot be denied. Even if the closure of Yallourn PS results in a temporary and hypothetical increase in wholesale prices of 100%, it would still be far cheaper than what it was a year ago (the closure of the larger Hazelwood PS resulted in a temporary 85% increase in wholesale electricity price, IIRC mainly due to retail gouging):
Electricty market: Coal plants in peril as prices plunge (theage.com.au)
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean

- all we need is Liddell to close on top of the second last Latrobe Valley generator
don_dunstan
Third last Latrobe Valley generator, you cook heed.

Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B are completely separate entities.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Cook heed    I love that:DLaughingLaughing
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Australia needs a Bełchatów, something to give the greenies a decent source of protest.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Australia needs a Bełchatów, something to give the greenies a decent source of protest.
Aaron
We had Hazelwood. That was close enough right?
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Australia needs a Bełchatów, something to give the greenies a decent source of protest.
We had Hazelwood. That was close enough right?
Dangersdan707
Not even close.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Australia needs a Bełchatów, something to give the greenies a decent source of protest.
We had Hazelwood. That was close enough right?
Not even close.
Aaron
Three times bigger than Hazelwood.  There's talk of Yallourn closing by 2025 due to how unprofitable it has become.  Things might get tricky in 2025/6 if the big storage projects aren't online by then.  

Snowy Hydro 2.0 is due to be running by early 2025, but any delay might cause problems...
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud

- all we need is Liddell to close on top of the second last Latrobe Valley generator Third last Latrobe Valley generator, you cook heed.

Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B are completely separate entities.
DirtyBallast
Thank you for your gentlemanly reminder.
There's talk of Yallourn closing by 2025 due to how unprofitable it has become.
Carnot
Yallourn IS closing before the end of this year as reported here. (EDIT: No actually they say 'five years early' @ 2028 in that article. But I've also heard next year is on the cards?)

With good old reliable coal fired power stations dropping like flies it won't be long before we have immense blackouts - The UK with its wind craze at least has an extension lead that goes to France's nice reliable nuclear power plants. We don't have any such luxury.

They will never, ever build enough pumped storage or batteries - this has been covered by myself and others here before. The head of AGL has said it simply isn't practical to hope to store enough power to bridge the gap.
  arctic Deputy Commissioner

Location: Zurich
Australia needs a Bełchatów, something to give the greenies a decent source of protest.
We had Hazelwood. That was close enough right?
Dangersdan707
Cycle heat rate and hence emissions per MWh much better at Bełchatów than Hazelwood ever was. Bełchatów has also done effective improvement projects.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Unfortunately Bełchatów has also been the victim of foolish ‘green’ policy that keeps it from doing better in terms of environment and CO2 emissions.

Yes, that is a sad fact, Bełchatów is prevented from implementing about a quarter of a billion AUD into carbon capture and retention tech because European ‘greens’ had an issue with the carbon being stored in the ground… Seriously, where the smeg do they think it came from in the first place… That’s right those pricks that complain about the increasing carbon in the atmosphere would rather see the CO2 go there than be captured and sequestered underground… Just take a moment to consider that.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

When Hazelwood closed there was much fanfare of an EV factory being built in the valley.  That doesn't look like happening (since like most things in Vic, they couldn't organise a _____ in a ______).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-05/latrobe-valley-electric-vehicle-factory-not-happening/13206306

But on the other hand, let's greenwash a new factory that produces Hydrogen from brown coal (emitting huge quantities of CO2 in the process), and carts it by truck to Port Hastings:

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/hydrogen-production-success-world-first-project

They say the CO2 will be sequestered, but will it?  The Gorgon plant in WA has yet to make it work for several years now....
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Hydrogen is supposed to be the poster child for storing excess solar and wind electrons… WTF are the thinking using brown coal? Oh, that’s right, they don’t have reliable solar or wind, let alone a reliable excess…
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Point of order on a few comments

- When Hazellwood closed, the power prices spiked in Vic for a nearly 3 years and only recently come down due to shortfalls in generation in Vic. This can be clearly see by the sudden change in Vic going from exporting 8000 GW to a net importer in 2019 and marginal exporter in other years. So Vic doesn't have large amounts of excess green power to replace Yallourn.

- 2020, on current product rates, should Yallourn be closed, Vic will be an importer of power, so there needs to be alot of wind solar and batteries built between now and then ontop of Snowy 2.0 for which NSW will take a far chunk of that following Liddell closure. The proposed 350 GW battery is not going to be big enough by any means.  

- Removing such a large 24/7/365 generation source will see prices rise. If it wasn't needed it wouldn't be running now and most of Vic's coal power stations run mostly flat out most of the time because they are cheap.

- The ANU study on the amount of pumped hydro available in Australia is a crock of $hit. Since that report, not 1 project has been started apart from SNOWY 2.0 and even that is raising a few eyebrows with the bean counters. Its basically a strategic "Captains Call" project. I'm sure it will be economically viable, but not in time frames most of us are used to.

- Having said that due to the excess of coal, wind and solar production in the last 2-3 years, the NEM's existing OCGT (peaking gas) and pumped hydro usage has dropped right off.

Prediction
- The progressive loss of 1-2 coal power stations, I predict two to be gone by 2026, Liddell and Yallourn with Callide B (I think) to follow by 2026 evening peaking prices will again rise.

- In next few years as the number of houses with PV solar approaches 33% in the NEM we will see solar feed in tariffs be more reflective of live grid pricing, i.e. you will get almost nothing or just nothing for your solar electrons you don't use during the day. Roof top PV solar will be the main supplier of energy into the grid during the day by the mid 2020's.

- The combined will drive power users to install home batteries on a commercial basis with feed in tariffs from battery storage in the evening being alot higher than PV solar feedin. I know its started, but its like PV solar was in 2010, 2025 will see 20% of homes with batteries.

- 2035 - 2040, all Australia's coal power stations will be closed.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
The cost of charging a Tesla in Texas spiked to over $900 - Oil Price

The electricity shortage in Texas amid the cold snap has sent spot electricity prices soaring so much that the surge in power prices equals a cost of $900 for charging a Tesla.

The typical full charge of a Tesla costs around $18 using a Level 1 or Level 2 charger at home, according to estimates from The Drive. This estimate is based on an average price of $0.14 per kWh of power.  

However, the extreme winter weather this week has sent Texas spot electricity prices soaring, as the wind turbines froze in the ice storms and reduced the wind power generating capacity in the Lone Star State by half.

Spot electricity prices at the West hub have soared above the grid’s $9,000 per megawatt-hour cap, compared to a ‘normal’ price of $25 per megawatt-hour, FOX Business notes.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) called early on Monday for rotating outages across the state as extreme winter weather forced wind power generating units offline, while electricity demand set a new winter peak record.

Lucky consumers are protected from those spot prices by their energy retailers otherwise they'd be gouged for just turning the lights on...
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The cost of charging a Tesla in Texas spiked to over $900 - Oil Price

The electricity shortage in Texas amid the cold snap has sent spot electricity prices soaring so much that the surge in power prices equals a cost of $900 for charging a Tesla.

The typical full charge of a Tesla costs around $18 using a Level 1 or Level 2 charger at home, according to estimates from The Drive. This estimate is based on an average price of $0.14 per kWh of power.  

However, the extreme winter weather this week has sent Texas spot electricity prices soaring, as the wind turbines froze in the ice storms and reduced the wind power generating capacity in the Lone Star State by half.

Spot electricity prices at the West hub have soared above the grid’s $9,000 per megawatt-hour cap, compared to a ‘normal’ price of $25 per megawatt-hour, FOX Business notes.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) called early on Monday for rotating outages across the state as extreme winter weather forced wind power generating units offline, while electricity demand set a new winter peak record.

Lucky consumers are protected from those spot prices by their energy retailers otherwise they'd be gouged for just turning the lights on...
don_dunstan
Well, maybe, maybe not

1) In Texas there is a significant part of the power customers that subscribe to spot pricing for their home and business accounts. So for years they rode the cream capitalizing on using home appliances during period of low power prices. Fortunately many lost full access to power thanks to the blackouts thus limiting the damage to their power bills, although some still got hit with power bills in thousands of dollars.

2) Its unlikely anyone needed a full tank for those few days. The typical later model Tesla battery range is sufficient for the average American's weekly use.

3) As the roads were an ice skating rink, many people didn't leave their houses so no need to charge.

4) How much do you think petrol costs at petrol stations with no power?

5) If you are not a direct investor in Mac Bank, your Superfund is and thanks to the Texas screw up, Mac bank cashed in on the high prices and make a significant profit.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Interesting to see that the Vic Govt have (rightfully) ditched the mad proposal for an import gas terminal at Port Hastings:
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/gas-proposal-ruled-out-due-environmental-impacts

How quickly will Victorians (both residential and industry) be able to transition away from Natural Gas to electric or other alternatives?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean
Interesting to see that the Vic Govt have (rightfully) ditched the mad proposal for an import gas terminal at Port Hastings:
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/gas-proposal-ruled-out-due-environmental-impacts

How quickly will Victorians (both residential and industry) be able to transition away from Natural Gas to electric or other alternatives?
Carnot
Australian Paper at Maryvale is Victoria's largest industrial user of natural gas. It is the major reason why they proposed to construct a biomass plant to raise steam for the pulp and paper making process and also generate more electricity - enabling the shutdown of its three gas fired boilers.

Shovels should be in the ground by the end of the year, apparently.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Interesting to see that the Vic Govt have (rightfully) ditched the mad proposal for an import gas terminal at Port Hastings:
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/gas-proposal-ruled-out-due-environmental-impacts

How quickly will Victorians (both residential and industry) be able to transition away from Natural Gas to electric or other alternatives?
Australian Paper at Maryvale is Victoria's largest industrial user of natural gas. It is the major reason why they proposed to construct a biomass plant to raise steam for the pulp and paper making process and also generate more electricity - enabling the shutdown of its three gas fired boilers.

Shovels should be in the ground by the end of the year, apparently.
DirtyBallast
Yep.  I believe there are plans to transport some of that biomass/rubbish by rail from Melb to Maryvale on the empty Down paper trains.
  arctic Deputy Commissioner

Location: Zurich
For the Texas bit, since I work in the Power industry in a global role, I was able to get some first hand accounts of one fossil plant affected by the weather. Field instruments completely frozen, plant unable to operate.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Come on Arctic old chap, don't let facts get in the way of a good whinge and moan...... by Don
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I have long been a critic of Energiewende and it seems as though the hühner are coming home to roost.

German language source (unsurprising) but I had a german speaking colleague interpret it for me, but chrome will probably do a good enough translate for you.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?cid=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web&fbclid=IwAR3zbeNILfeQs_uC2YF5etNknf8AI0g6XESacJjD-FSojv-7x0LaTQhwyFM

This is the second time the German Federal Audit Office has had to heavily criticise energiewende, and it’s quite damning. Losing nuclear ought to have been Germany’s LAST ambition, not it’s first.


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